Opinion Poll by Red C for Paddy Power, 3–10 October 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael 25.5% 31.9% 30.1–33.8% 29.5–34.4% 29.1–34.9% 28.2–35.8%
Fianna Fáil 24.3% 26.9% 25.1–28.8% 24.7–29.3% 24.2–29.7% 23.4–30.7%
Sinn Féin 13.8% 14.0% 12.7–15.5% 12.3–15.9% 12.0–16.3% 11.4–17.0%
Independent 15.9% 11.0% 9.8–12.4% 9.5–12.8% 9.2–13.1% 8.7–13.8%
Labour Party 6.6% 5.0% 4.2–6.0% 4.0–6.3% 3.8–6.5% 3.5–7.1%
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2.7% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.1% 2.1–4.3% 1.9–4.7%
Solidarity–People Before Profit 3.9% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.1% 1.1–3.4%
Independents 4 Change 1.5% 1.4% 1.0–2.0% 0.9–2.2% 0.8–2.3% 0.7–2.7%
Social Democrats 3.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.8% 0.4–2.1%
Renua Ireland 2.2% 0.1% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7% 0.0–0.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael 49 65 60–68 60–70 58–70 55–71
Fianna Fáil 44 51 44–54 43–55 43–56 42–58
Sinn Féin 23 27 21–30 20–31 19–32 18–33
Independent 19 9 4–14 4–14 4–14 3–16
Labour Party 7 2 1–6 0–6 0–7 0–8
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2 1 1–2 0–3 0–3 0–3
Solidarity–People Before Profit 6 2 0–4 0–4 0–4 0–4
Independents 4 Change 4 4 2–5 2–5 0–5 0–5
Social Democrats 3 1 0–2 0–3 0–3 0–3
Renua Ireland 0 0 0 0 0 0

Fine Gael

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fine Gael page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100% Last Result
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 100%  
54 0.1% 99.9%  
55 0.6% 99.9%  
56 0.6% 99.3%  
57 0.6% 98.7%  
58 1.1% 98%  
59 0.4% 97%  
60 13% 97%  
61 4% 84%  
62 1.2% 80%  
63 10% 79%  
64 12% 68%  
65 31% 57% Median
66 5% 26%  
67 6% 20%  
68 5% 14%  
69 2% 9%  
70 5% 6%  
71 1.3% 1.4%  
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fianna Fáil page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.1% 99.9%  
42 1.0% 99.8%  
43 8% 98.8%  
44 4% 90% Last Result
45 2% 87%  
46 16% 85%  
47 4% 69%  
48 3% 65%  
49 2% 62%  
50 5% 60%  
51 15% 56% Median
52 11% 41%  
53 6% 30%  
54 16% 24%  
55 2% 7%  
56 3% 5%  
57 1.3% 2%  
58 0.6% 0.8%  
59 0.2% 0.2%  
60 0% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Sinn Féin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinn Féin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.4% 100%  
18 2% 99.6%  
19 2% 98%  
20 1.4% 95%  
21 5% 94%  
22 3% 89%  
23 6% 86% Last Result
24 15% 80%  
25 7% 65%  
26 2% 58%  
27 12% 56% Median
28 8% 44%  
29 15% 37%  
30 13% 21%  
31 4% 8%  
32 3% 5%  
33 2% 2%  
34 0.1% 0.2%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  

Independent

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independent page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 2% 100%  
4 11% 98%  
5 8% 88%  
6 12% 80%  
7 7% 67%  
8 4% 60%  
9 27% 56% Median
10 4% 28%  
11 4% 25%  
12 3% 21%  
13 3% 17%  
14 12% 14%  
15 0.8% 2%  
16 2% 2%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 9% 100%  
1 15% 91%  
2 36% 76% Median
3 7% 40%  
4 17% 33%  
5 5% 17%  
6 7% 11%  
7 2% 5% Last Result
8 2% 2%  
9 0.2% 0.4%  
10 0% 0.2%  
11 0% 0.1%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party/Comhaontas Glas page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 6% 100%  
1 60% 94% Median
2 27% 34% Last Result
3 6% 6%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Solidarity–People Before Profit

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Solidarity–People Before Profit page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 19% 100%  
1 23% 81%  
2 27% 58% Median
3 17% 31%  
4 14% 14%  
5 0% 0.1%  
6 0% 0% Last Result

Independents 4 Change

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents 4 Change page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 4% 100%  
1 1.2% 96%  
2 16% 95%  
3 11% 79%  
4 28% 68% Last Result, Median
5 40% 40%  
6 0% 0%  

Social Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Social Democrats page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 12% 100%  
1 68% 88% Median
2 11% 20%  
3 9% 9% Last Result
4 0% 0%  

Renua Ireland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Renua Ireland page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael – Fianna Fáil 93 114 100% 108–120 108–123 108–123 106–126
Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin 67 76 16% 72–82 70–83 68–83 67–84
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats 61 69 0.5% 67–75 66–78 64–78 60–81
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 58 68 0.2% 66–73 65–76 62–77 58–78
Fine Gael – Labour Party 56 67 0% 64–71 63–75 62–75 57–76
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 51 66 0% 62–70 61–72 59–72 56–72
Fine Gael 49 65 0% 60–68 60–70 58–70 55–71
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats 56 56 0% 50–61 47–62 47–62 45–64
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 53 55 0% 48–60 46–61 46–61 45–63
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party 51 53 0% 46–58 45–59 45–60 44–61
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 46 52 0% 45–56 44–57 44–58 43–59

Fine Gael – Fianna Fáil

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
93 0% 100% Last Result
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 99.9%  
104 0.1% 99.9%  
105 0.2% 99.8%  
106 0.2% 99.6%  
107 0.9% 99.4%  
108 11% 98.5%  
109 1.5% 88%  
110 2% 86%  
111 16% 84%  
112 13% 68%  
113 2% 55%  
114 6% 53%  
115 17% 47%  
116 1.3% 30% Median
117 9% 29%  
118 2% 20%  
119 8% 18%  
120 1.2% 10%  
121 1.0% 9%  
122 1.0% 8%  
123 5% 7%  
124 0.3% 1.5%  
125 0.5% 1.2%  
126 0.5% 0.6%  
127 0.1% 0.1%  
128 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.3% 100%  
65 0% 99.7%  
66 0.1% 99.7%  
67 2% 99.5% Last Result
68 2% 98%  
69 0.3% 96%  
70 0.9% 95%  
71 4% 94%  
72 11% 90%  
73 2% 80%  
74 10% 78%  
75 14% 68%  
76 14% 54%  
77 4% 41%  
78 4% 37% Median
79 15% 33%  
80 2% 19%  
81 2% 16% Majority
82 8% 14%  
83 5% 6%  
84 0.4% 0.7%  
85 0% 0.3%  
86 0.2% 0.3%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0.6% 99.9%  
61 0.3% 99.3% Last Result
62 0.7% 99.0%  
63 0.5% 98%  
64 1.2% 98%  
65 1.4% 97%  
66 2% 95%  
67 24% 93%  
68 12% 69%  
69 23% 57% Median
70 3% 34%  
71 6% 31%  
72 8% 25%  
73 3% 18%  
74 4% 15%  
75 4% 11%  
76 1.0% 7%  
77 0.2% 6%  
78 4% 5%  
79 0.6% 1.2%  
80 0.1% 0.6%  
81 0.4% 0.5% Majority
82 0.1% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.4% 100%  
58 0.2% 99.5% Last Result
59 0.5% 99.3%  
60 0.3% 98.8%  
61 0.1% 98.5%  
62 1.0% 98%  
63 1.0% 97%  
64 1.4% 96%  
65 3% 95%  
66 27% 92%  
67 9% 65%  
68 22% 56% Median
69 4% 34%  
70 4% 30%  
71 9% 26%  
72 6% 17%  
73 4% 12%  
74 2% 8%  
75 1.0% 6%  
76 0.6% 6%  
77 4% 5%  
78 0.4% 0.6%  
79 0.1% 0.3%  
80 0% 0.2%  
81 0.1% 0.2% Majority
82 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.4% 100% Last Result
57 0.1% 99.5%  
58 0.6% 99.4%  
59 0.3% 98.8%  
60 0.2% 98.5%  
61 0.8% 98%  
62 0.7% 98%  
63 2% 97%  
64 10% 95%  
65 25% 84%  
66 4% 60%  
67 24% 55% Median
68 3% 32%  
69 6% 29%  
70 10% 23%  
71 5% 13%  
72 2% 8%  
73 0.6% 7%  
74 0.6% 6%  
75 4% 6%  
76 2% 2%  
77 0.1% 0.3%  
78 0% 0.2%  
79 0.1% 0.2%  
80 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100% Last Result
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 100%  
54 0% 100%  
55 0.2% 99.9%  
56 0.4% 99.8%  
57 0.6% 99.3%  
58 1.1% 98.7%  
59 0.5% 98%  
60 0.5% 97%  
61 5% 97%  
62 11% 91%  
63 2% 80%  
64 2% 79%  
65 20% 77%  
66 27% 57% Median
67 7% 30%  
68 9% 23%  
69 2% 14%  
70 4% 12%  
71 1.4% 8%  
72 6% 6%  
73 0.2% 0.3%  
74 0.1% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  

Fine Gael

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100% Last Result
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 100%  
54 0.1% 99.9%  
55 0.6% 99.9%  
56 0.6% 99.3%  
57 0.6% 98.7%  
58 1.1% 98%  
59 0.4% 97%  
60 13% 97%  
61 4% 84%  
62 1.2% 80%  
63 10% 79%  
64 12% 68%  
65 31% 57% Median
66 5% 26%  
67 6% 20%  
68 5% 14%  
69 2% 9%  
70 5% 6%  
71 1.3% 1.4%  
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.5% 100%  
46 0.6% 99.5%  
47 8% 98.8%  
48 0.5% 91%  
49 0.4% 90%  
50 15% 90%  
51 2% 75%  
52 5% 73%  
53 2% 69%  
54 11% 66%  
55 3% 55% Median
56 10% 52% Last Result
57 6% 41%  
58 8% 35%  
59 3% 27%  
60 13% 24%  
61 6% 12%  
62 4% 6%  
63 0.7% 2%  
64 0.7% 1.0%  
65 0.2% 0.4%  
66 0.1% 0.2%  
67 0% 0.1%  
68 0% 0.1%  
69 0% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0% 99.9%  
45 1.1% 99.9%  
46 8% 98.7%  
47 0.4% 91%  
48 0.7% 90%  
49 17% 90%  
50 0.1% 73%  
51 4% 72%  
52 3% 68%  
53 11% 66% Last Result
54 3% 55% Median
55 12% 52%  
56 6% 40%  
57 3% 34%  
58 16% 31%  
59 3% 14%  
60 6% 11%  
61 4% 6%  
62 1.2% 2%  
63 0.2% 0.5%  
64 0.2% 0.3%  
65 0.1% 0.2%  
66 0% 0.1%  
67 0% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.1% 99.9%  
44 1.2% 99.8%  
45 8% 98.7%  
46 3% 91%  
47 0.7% 88%  
48 13% 87%  
49 4% 74%  
50 3% 70%  
51 1.0% 67% Last Result
52 14% 66%  
53 3% 53% Median
54 12% 49%  
55 4% 38%  
56 18% 34%  
57 3% 16%  
58 5% 13%  
59 3% 8%  
60 4% 5%  
61 0.8% 1.2%  
62 0.1% 0.4%  
63 0.1% 0.3%  
64 0.1% 0.2%  
65 0.1% 0.1%  
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.1% 99.9%  
43 0.9% 99.8%  
44 9% 98.9%  
45 1.2% 90%  
46 0.4% 89% Last Result
47 21% 89%  
48 2% 68%  
49 4% 67%  
50 1.0% 62%  
51 3% 61%  
52 15% 58% Median
53 4% 43%  
54 11% 38%  
55 14% 27%  
56 7% 13%  
57 3% 6%  
58 1.5% 3%  
59 1.1% 1.3%  
60 0.1% 0.2%  
61 0% 0.1%  
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations