Opinion Poll by Ipsos MRBI for The Irish Times, 10–12 October 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael 25.5% 33.3% 31.6–35.1% 31.1–35.6% 30.7–36.1% 29.9–36.9%
Fianna Fáil 24.3% 25.2% 23.7–26.9% 23.2–27.4% 22.9–27.8% 22.1–28.6%
Sinn Féin 13.8% 24.2% 22.7–25.9% 22.3–26.4% 21.9–26.8% 21.2–27.6%
Independent 15.9% 5.1% 4.3–6.0% 4.1–6.2% 4.0–6.5% 3.6–7.0%
Labour Party 6.6% 4.0% 3.4–4.8% 3.2–5.1% 3.0–5.3% 2.7–5.7%
Solidarity–People Before Profit 3.9% 3.0% 2.5–3.7% 2.3–3.9% 2.2–4.1% 1.9–4.5%
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2.7% 2.0% 1.6–2.6% 1.4–2.8% 1.3–3.0% 1.2–3.3%
Social Democrats 3.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.6% 0.6–1.8% 0.5–2.0%
Independents 4 Change 1.5% 0.7% 0.4–1.1% 0.4–1.2% 0.3–1.3% 0.3–1.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael 49 65 61–67 60–67 59–68 57–69
Fianna Fáil 44 45 44–47 44–49 42–51 41–52
Sinn Féin 23 41 39–45 39–45 38–45 37–46
Independent 19 2 1–2 0–3 0–4 0–4
Labour Party 7 2 0–3 0–3 0–4 0–5
Solidarity–People Before Profit 6 4 2–4 1–4 0–4 0–5
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–2
Social Democrats 3 1 0–1 0–4 0–4 0–4
Independents 4 Change 4 1 0–1 0–1 0–2 0–4

Fine Gael

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fine Gael page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100% Last Result
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 100%  
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 100%  
56 0.2% 99.9%  
57 0.5% 99.7%  
58 1.1% 99.2%  
59 1.2% 98%  
60 5% 97%  
61 2% 92%  
62 3% 90%  
63 7% 86%  
64 6% 80%  
65 40% 74% Median
66 12% 34%  
67 18% 22%  
68 3% 4%  
69 1.1% 1.2%  
70 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fianna Fáil page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.2% 99.9%  
41 0.3% 99.7%  
42 3% 99.4%  
43 1.1% 97%  
44 43% 96% Last Result
45 21% 52% Median
46 16% 31%  
47 7% 15%  
48 0.5% 8%  
49 2% 7%  
50 1.1% 5%  
51 2% 4%  
52 2% 2%  
53 0% 0.2%  
54 0.2% 0.2%  
55 0% 0%  

Sinn Féin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinn Féin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0% 100%  
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.2% 99.9%  
37 0.2% 99.7%  
38 3% 99.4%  
39 7% 96%  
40 24% 89%  
41 39% 65% Median
42 3% 26%  
43 1.1% 23%  
44 8% 22%  
45 13% 15%  
46 2% 2%  
47 0% 0%  

Independent

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independent page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 9% 100%  
1 21% 91%  
2 60% 70% Median
3 6% 9%  
4 3% 3%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 12% 100%  
1 29% 88%  
2 48% 59% Median
3 8% 11%  
4 2% 3%  
5 0.8% 1.0%  
6 0.2% 0.2%  
7 0% 0% Last Result

Solidarity–People Before Profit

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Solidarity–People Before Profit page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 3% 100%  
1 7% 97%  
2 7% 90%  
3 10% 83%  
4 72% 73% Median
5 1.2% 1.4%  
6 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
7 0% 0%  

Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party/Comhaontas Glas page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 94% 100% Median
1 6% 6%  
2 0.5% 0.5% Last Result
3 0% 0%  

Social Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Social Democrats page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 37% 100%  
1 54% 63% Median
2 2% 10%  
3 0.9% 8% Last Result
4 7% 7%  
5 0% 0%  

Independents 4 Change

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents 4 Change page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 48% 100%  
1 48% 52% Median
2 2% 4%  
3 0.4% 2%  
4 1.4% 1.4% Last Result
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael – Fianna Fáil 93 109 100% 107–113 106–114 105–114 104–115
Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin 67 85 99.7% 85–90 84–91 83–95 81–96
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats 61 68 0% 65–69 62–70 61–71 59–73
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 58 67 0% 63–69 61–69 61–70 58–73
Fine Gael – Labour Party 56 67 0% 63–69 61–69 61–70 58–72
Fine Gael 49 65 0% 61–67 60–67 59–68 57–69
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 51 65 0% 62–67 60–68 59–68 57–69
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats 56 47 0% 46–50 46–52 45–53 44–55
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 53 46 0% 46–49 45–51 45–52 43–54
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party 51 46 0% 46–49 45–51 45–52 43–54
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 46 45 0% 44–47 44–49 43–51 42–52

Fine Gael – Fianna Fáil

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
93 0% 100% Last Result
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0.1% 100%  
103 0.1% 99.9%  
104 0.7% 99.8%  
105 3% 99.1%  
106 1.2% 96%  
107 9% 95%  
108 3% 86%  
109 39% 83%  
110 7% 44% Median
111 3% 37%  
112 23% 33%  
113 2% 10%  
114 7% 8%  
115 2% 2%  
116 0.1% 0.1%  
117 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0.3% 100%  
81 0.4% 99.7% Majority
82 1.1% 99.3%  
83 0.7% 98%  
84 5% 97%  
85 48% 93%  
86 17% 45% Median
87 3% 28%  
88 1.5% 25%  
89 9% 24%  
90 6% 15%  
91 5% 9%  
92 0.2% 5%  
93 0.6% 4%  
94 0.9% 4%  
95 1.0% 3%  
96 2% 2%  
97 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100%  
59 1.2% 99.8%  
60 0.7% 98.6%  
61 1.0% 98% Last Result
62 3% 97%  
63 1.3% 94%  
64 3% 93%  
65 7% 90%  
66 5% 84%  
67 7% 79%  
68 56% 72% Median
69 9% 16%  
70 4% 7%  
71 2% 3%  
72 0.3% 2%  
73 1.3% 1.4%  
74 0.1% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.2% 99.9%  
58 0.3% 99.7% Last Result
59 1.1% 99.5%  
60 0.8% 98%  
61 6% 98%  
62 0.3% 92%  
63 3% 92%  
64 2% 89%  
65 7% 87%  
66 10% 80%  
67 47% 70% Median
68 12% 24%  
69 9% 12%  
70 0.9% 3%  
71 1.3% 2%  
72 0.1% 0.8%  
73 0.7% 0.7%  
74 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100% Last Result
57 0.2% 99.9%  
58 0.3% 99.7%  
59 1.1% 99.4%  
60 0.8% 98%  
61 6% 98%  
62 0.3% 92%  
63 3% 92%  
64 4% 89%  
65 5% 85%  
66 10% 80%  
67 47% 70% Median
68 11% 22%  
69 9% 11%  
70 0.6% 3%  
71 1.2% 2%  
72 0.7% 0.7%  
73 0% 0%  

Fine Gael

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100% Last Result
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 100%  
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 100%  
56 0.2% 99.9%  
57 0.5% 99.7%  
58 1.1% 99.2%  
59 1.2% 98%  
60 5% 97%  
61 2% 92%  
62 3% 90%  
63 7% 86%  
64 6% 80%  
65 40% 74% Median
66 12% 34%  
67 18% 22%  
68 3% 4%  
69 1.1% 1.2%  
70 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100% Last Result
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 100%  
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 100%  
56 0.2% 100%  
57 0.5% 99.7%  
58 1.1% 99.3%  
59 1.2% 98%  
60 5% 97%  
61 2% 92%  
62 2% 90%  
63 7% 88%  
64 4% 80%  
65 42% 77% Median
66 12% 35%  
67 17% 22%  
68 4% 5%  
69 1.3% 1.3%  
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.1% 99.9%  
43 0.2% 99.8%  
44 1.2% 99.5%  
45 2% 98%  
46 15% 96%  
47 41% 81%  
48 15% 40% Median
49 10% 25%  
50 8% 15%  
51 2% 7%  
52 2% 5%  
53 0.6% 3%  
54 2% 2%  
55 0.4% 0.6%  
56 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
57 0% 0.1%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.3% 99.8%  
43 0.3% 99.5%  
44 1.2% 99.2%  
45 4% 98%  
46 57% 94%  
47 17% 37% Median
48 4% 20%  
49 8% 16%  
50 3% 8%  
51 1.3% 5%  
52 2% 4%  
53 2% 2% Last Result
54 0.2% 0.7%  
55 0.3% 0.4%  
56 0% 0.1%  
57 0% 0.1%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.3% 99.8%  
43 0.4% 99.5%  
44 1.3% 99.1%  
45 6% 98%  
46 56% 92%  
47 17% 36% Median
48 4% 19%  
49 8% 15%  
50 2% 7%  
51 1.2% 5% Last Result
52 2% 4%  
53 2% 2%  
54 0.2% 0.6%  
55 0.3% 0.4%  
56 0% 0.1%  
57 0% 0.1%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.2% 99.9%  
41 0.1% 99.7%  
42 2% 99.6%  
43 2% 98%  
44 43% 96%  
45 20% 53% Median
46 17% 33% Last Result
47 8% 16%  
48 0.8% 8%  
49 2% 7%  
50 1.1% 5%  
51 2% 4%  
52 2% 2%  
53 0.1% 0.3%  
54 0.2% 0.2%  
55 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations