Opinion Poll by Behaviour and Attitudes for The Sunday Times, 5–16 October 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael 25.5% 31.5% 29.6–33.5% 29.1–34.1% 28.6–34.6% 27.7–35.5%
Fianna Fáil 24.3% 27.4% 25.6–29.4% 25.1–29.9% 24.6–30.4% 23.8–31.3%
Sinn Féin 13.8% 19.3% 17.7–21.0% 17.2–21.5% 16.8–21.9% 16.1–22.8%
Independent 15.9% 7.8% 6.7–9.0% 6.4–9.3% 6.2–9.6% 5.7–10.3%
Labour Party 6.6% 6.1% 5.2–7.3% 5.0–7.6% 4.8–7.9% 4.4–8.4%
Solidarity–People Before Profit 3.9% 2.0% 1.6–2.8% 1.4–3.0% 1.3–3.2% 1.1–3.6%
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2.7% 2.0% 1.6–2.8% 1.4–3.0% 1.3–3.2% 1.1–3.6%
Independents 4 Change 1.5% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.8% 0.4–2.1%
Social Democrats 3.0% 0.2% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7% 0.1–0.8% 0.0–1.0%
Renua Ireland 2.2% 0.1% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7% 0.1–0.8% 0.0–1.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael 49 60 54–63 54–65 54–67 54–67
Fianna Fáil 44 49 47–54 47–54 46–55 42–57
Sinn Féin 23 38 35–42 33–42 33–42 31–42
Independent 19 3 3–6 3–6 3–6 3–6
Labour Party 7 6 4–7 3–8 3–8 1–16
Solidarity–People Before Profit 6 1 0–3 0–3 0–3 0–4
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2 0 0 0 0 0–2
Independents 4 Change 4 1 0–4 0–4 0–4 0–5
Social Democrats 3 0 0 0 0 0–1
Renua Ireland 0 0 0 0 0 0

Fine Gael

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fine Gael page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100% Last Result
50 0% 100%  
51 0.1% 100%  
52 0.1% 99.8%  
53 0.1% 99.7%  
54 17% 99.7%  
55 0.4% 83%  
56 0.4% 83%  
57 18% 82%  
58 2% 64%  
59 7% 62%  
60 6% 55% Median
61 4% 49%  
62 5% 45%  
63 34% 40%  
64 0.4% 6%  
65 1.1% 5%  
66 2% 4%  
67 2% 3%  
68 0.2% 0.3%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fianna Fáil page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.2% 99.9%  
41 0.2% 99.7%  
42 0.5% 99.5%  
43 0.7% 99.0%  
44 0.1% 98% Last Result
45 0.2% 98%  
46 2% 98%  
47 34% 96%  
48 2% 62%  
49 24% 60% Median
50 2% 36%  
51 0.8% 34%  
52 4% 34%  
53 10% 29%  
54 17% 20%  
55 1.5% 3%  
56 0.5% 1.2%  
57 0.3% 0.7%  
58 0% 0.5%  
59 0% 0.4%  
60 0% 0.4%  
61 0.4% 0.4%  
62 0% 0%  

Sinn Féin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinn Féin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0% 99.9%  
30 0.3% 99.8%  
31 0.1% 99.6%  
32 0.8% 99.5%  
33 5% 98.7%  
34 3% 94%  
35 7% 91%  
36 8% 84%  
37 5% 76%  
38 35% 71% Median
39 0.6% 36%  
40 0.6% 35%  
41 0.3% 34%  
42 34% 34%  
43 0.1% 0.2%  
44 0% 0%  

Independent

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independent page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100%  
2 0.2% 99.9%  
3 63% 99.6% Median
4 2% 36%  
5 0.3% 34%  
6 34% 34%  
7 0% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100%  
1 0.5% 99.8%  
2 1.2% 99.3%  
3 4% 98%  
4 41% 94%  
5 3% 53%  
6 1.3% 51% Median
7 40% 49% Last Result
8 7% 9%  
9 0.2% 2%  
10 0.4% 2%  
11 0.5% 2%  
12 0.2% 1.3%  
13 0.3% 1.1%  
14 0.2% 0.8%  
15 0.1% 0.6%  
16 0.1% 0.5%  
17 0% 0.4%  
18 0.4% 0.4%  
19 0% 0%  

Solidarity–People Before Profit

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Solidarity–People Before Profit page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 25% 100%  
1 60% 75% Median
2 0.4% 15%  
3 14% 14%  
4 0.7% 0.7%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0% Last Result

Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party/Comhaontas Glas page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Median
1 0.3% 2%  
2 2% 2% Last Result
3 0.2% 0.2%  
4 0% 0%  

Independents 4 Change

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents 4 Change page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 26% 100%  
1 57% 74% Median
2 2% 17%  
3 2% 14%  
4 12% 13% Last Result
5 0.8% 0.8%  
6 0% 0%  

Social Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Social Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Median
1 2% 2%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0% Last Result

Renua Ireland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Renua Ireland page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael – Fianna Fáil 93 110 100% 106–112 106–114 106–115 103–119
Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin 67 86 98% 84–96 82–96 81–96 78–96
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 58 67 0% 61–69 61–71 61–73 61–76
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats 61 67 0% 61–69 61–71 61–73 61–76
Fine Gael – Labour Party 56 67 0% 61–69 61–71 61–72 60–76
Fine Gael 49 60 0% 54–63 54–65 54–67 54–67
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 51 61 0% 54–63 54–65 54–67 54–68
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 53 56 0% 51–61 51–61 51–61 48–67
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats 56 56 0% 51–61 51–61 51–61 48–67
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party 51 56 0% 51–61 51–61 51–61 48–67
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 46 49 0% 47–54 47–54 46–55 42–57

Fine Gael – Fianna Fáil

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
93 0% 100% Last Result
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0.1% 100%  
102 0% 99.9%  
103 0.6% 99.9%  
104 0.3% 99.3%  
105 0.4% 99.0%  
106 19% 98.6%  
107 0.6% 79%  
108 17% 79%  
109 1.4% 62% Median
110 34% 60%  
111 5% 26%  
112 12% 21%  
113 0.7% 9%  
114 4% 8%  
115 2% 4%  
116 1.1% 2%  
117 0.3% 1.2%  
118 0.3% 0.9%  
119 0.6% 0.6%  
120 0% 0.1%  
121 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0.3% 99.9%  
78 0.2% 99.6%  
79 0.4% 99.4%  
80 0.8% 99.1%  
81 2% 98% Majority
82 2% 96%  
83 0.8% 94%  
84 5% 93%  
85 35% 88%  
86 4% 53%  
87 0.4% 49% Median
88 1.0% 48%  
89 10% 47%  
90 0.2% 37%  
91 19% 37%  
92 1.0% 18%  
93 0.4% 17%  
94 0.6% 17%  
95 0% 16%  
96 16% 16%  
97 0.3% 0.3%  
98 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100% Last Result
59 0.3% 99.8%  
60 0% 99.5%  
61 17% 99.5%  
62 0.5% 83%  
63 7% 82%  
64 23% 76%  
65 0.7% 53%  
66 1.1% 52% Median
67 35% 51%  
68 5% 17%  
69 5% 12%  
70 1.3% 7%  
71 0.7% 5%  
72 2% 5%  
73 0.3% 3%  
74 1.2% 2%  
75 0.4% 1.0%  
76 0.1% 0.5%  
77 0.4% 0.5%  
78 0.1% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0.3% 99.8%  
60 0% 99.5%  
61 17% 99.5% Last Result
62 0.4% 83%  
63 7% 82%  
64 23% 76%  
65 0.4% 53%  
66 0.9% 53% Median
67 35% 52%  
68 5% 17%  
69 5% 12%  
70 1.2% 7%  
71 0.8% 6%  
72 2% 5%  
73 0.3% 3%  
74 1.2% 2%  
75 0.5% 1.0%  
76 0.1% 0.5%  
77 0.4% 0.5%  
78 0.1% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0% 100% Last Result
57 0.1% 100%  
58 0.2% 99.9%  
59 0.2% 99.7%  
60 0.1% 99.5%  
61 17% 99.5%  
62 0.5% 83%  
63 7% 82%  
64 23% 76%  
65 0.7% 53%  
66 1.1% 52% Median
67 35% 51%  
68 6% 16%  
69 5% 11%  
70 0.4% 6%  
71 0.8% 5%  
72 2% 5%  
73 0.6% 2%  
74 1.1% 2%  
75 0% 0.5%  
76 0.1% 0.5%  
77 0.4% 0.5%  
78 0.1% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  

Fine Gael

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100% Last Result
50 0% 100%  
51 0.1% 100%  
52 0.1% 99.8%  
53 0.1% 99.7%  
54 17% 99.7%  
55 0.4% 83%  
56 0.4% 83%  
57 18% 82%  
58 2% 64%  
59 7% 62%  
60 6% 55% Median
61 4% 49%  
62 5% 45%  
63 34% 40%  
64 0.4% 6%  
65 1.1% 5%  
66 2% 4%  
67 2% 3%  
68 0.2% 0.3%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100% Last Result
52 0.1% 99.9%  
53 0.2% 99.8%  
54 17% 99.7%  
55 0.4% 83%  
56 0.4% 83%  
57 18% 82%  
58 2% 64%  
59 7% 62%  
60 5% 55% Median
61 4% 50%  
62 6% 46%  
63 34% 40%  
64 0.5% 6%  
65 1.1% 5%  
66 1.3% 4%  
67 2% 3%  
68 0.6% 0.8%  
69 0.1% 0.3%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0% 100%  
47 0.2% 99.9%  
48 0.4% 99.7%  
49 0.4% 99.4%  
50 0.5% 99.0%  
51 34% 98.6%  
52 0.5% 64%  
53 2% 64% Last Result
54 0.5% 62%  
55 1.1% 61% Median
56 27% 60%  
57 7% 33%  
58 2% 26%  
59 0.1% 24%  
60 5% 24%  
61 17% 19%  
62 0.4% 2%  
63 0.4% 2%  
64 0.5% 1.2%  
65 0.1% 0.7%  
66 0% 0.5%  
67 0.4% 0.5%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0% 100%  
47 0.2% 99.9%  
48 0.4% 99.8%  
49 0.3% 99.4%  
50 0.5% 99.1%  
51 34% 98.6%  
52 0.5% 64%  
53 2% 64%  
54 0.5% 62%  
55 1.0% 61% Median
56 28% 60% Last Result
57 7% 33%  
58 2% 26%  
59 0.7% 24%  
60 5% 24%  
61 17% 19%  
62 0.1% 2%  
63 0.6% 2%  
64 0.6% 1.2%  
65 0.1% 0.7%  
66 0% 0.5%  
67 0.4% 0.5%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0% 100%  
46 0% 99.9%  
47 0.2% 99.9%  
48 0.4% 99.7%  
49 0.4% 99.3%  
50 0.5% 98.9%  
51 34% 98% Last Result
52 0.5% 64%  
53 2% 63%  
54 1.4% 61%  
55 0.8% 60% Median
56 26% 59%  
57 7% 33%  
58 2% 26%  
59 0.2% 24%  
60 5% 24%  
61 16% 18%  
62 0.4% 2%  
63 0.3% 1.5%  
64 0.5% 1.2%  
65 0.1% 0.7%  
66 0% 0.5%  
67 0.4% 0.5%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.2% 99.9%  
41 0.2% 99.7%  
42 0.5% 99.5%  
43 0.7% 99.1%  
44 0.1% 98%  
45 0.3% 98%  
46 0.6% 98% Last Result
47 34% 97%  
48 3% 63%  
49 24% 60% Median
50 2% 36%  
51 0.7% 35%  
52 4% 34%  
53 10% 30%  
54 17% 20%  
55 2% 3%  
56 0.5% 1.3%  
57 0.3% 0.8%  
58 0% 0.5%  
59 0% 0.4%  
60 0% 0.4%  
61 0.4% 0.4%  
62 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations