Opinion Poll by Red C for RTÉ, 26 October 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fine Gael | 25.5% | 35.0% | 33.9–36.0% | 33.6–36.3% | 33.3–36.5% | 32.9–37.0% |
| Fianna Fáil | 24.3% | 22.0% | 21.0–22.9% | 20.8–23.1% | 20.6–23.4% | 20.2–23.8% |
| Sinn Féin | 13.8% | 15.0% | 14.2–15.8% | 14.0–16.0% | 13.8–16.2% | 13.5–16.6% |
| Independent | 15.9% | 9.3% | 8.7–9.9% | 8.5–10.1% | 8.3–10.3% | 8.1–10.6% |
| Labour Party | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.5–7.6% | 6.3–7.8% | 6.2–7.9% | 5.9–8.2% |
| Green Party/Comhaontas Glas | 2.7% | 4.0% | 3.6–4.5% | 3.5–4.6% | 3.4–4.7% | 3.2–4.9% |
| Social Democrats | 3.0% | 3.0% | 2.7–3.4% | 2.5–3.5% | 2.5–3.6% | 2.3–3.8% |
| Solidarity–People Before Profit | 3.9% | 2.0% | 1.7–2.3% | 1.6–2.4% | 1.6–2.5% | 1.4–2.7% |
| Independents 4 Change | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.0–1.5% | 0.9–1.5% | 0.9–1.6% | 0.8–1.7% |
| Renua Ireland | 2.2% | 0.1% | 0.2–0.4% | 0.2–0.5% | 0.1–0.5% | 0.1–0.6% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fine Gael | 49 | 69 | 68–70 | 67–71 | 66–71 | 65–71 |
| Fianna Fáil | 44 | 41 | 38–42 | 38–42 | 38–43 | 37–43 |
| Sinn Féin | 23 | 28 | 26–30 | 25–31 | 24–31 | 23–34 |
| Independent | 19 | 4 | 4–5 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–8 |
| Labour Party | 7 | 9 | 6–11 | 6–13 | 5–13 | 5–14 |
| Green Party/Comhaontas Glas | 2 | 2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Social Democrats | 3 | 4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| Solidarity–People Before Profit | 6 | 1 | 0–2 | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–3 |
| Independents 4 Change | 4 | 2 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 1–4 | 0–4 |
| Renua Ireland | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Fine Gael
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fine Gael page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 49 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 50 | 0% | 100% | |
| 51 | 0% | 100% | |
| 52 | 0% | 100% | |
| 53 | 0% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0% | 100% | |
| 56 | 0% | 100% | |
| 57 | 0% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0% | 100% | |
| 63 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 65 | 1.1% | 99.7% | |
| 66 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 67 | 5% | 96% | |
| 68 | 31% | 91% | |
| 69 | 21% | 60% | Median |
| 70 | 31% | 39% | |
| 71 | 8% | 8% | |
| 72 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% |
Fianna Fáil
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fianna Fáil page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 37 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 38 | 13% | 99.4% | |
| 39 | 17% | 87% | |
| 40 | 10% | 69% | |
| 41 | 45% | 59% | Median |
| 42 | 12% | 15% | |
| 43 | 3% | 3% | |
| 44 | 0.2% | 0.2% | Last Result |
| 45 | 0% | 0% |
Sinn Féin
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinn Féin page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 23 | 1.4% | 99.7% | Last Result |
| 24 | 1.4% | 98% | |
| 25 | 4% | 97% | |
| 26 | 8% | 93% | |
| 27 | 20% | 85% | |
| 28 | 16% | 65% | Median |
| 29 | 19% | 49% | |
| 30 | 22% | 29% | |
| 31 | 5% | 7% | |
| 32 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 33 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 34 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 35 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 36 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% |
Independent
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independent page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 4 | 58% | 99.7% | Median |
| 5 | 33% | 42% | |
| 6 | 7% | 8% | |
| 7 | 0.7% | 1.2% | |
| 8 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 9 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 10 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Labour Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 5 | 3% | 99.7% | |
| 6 | 13% | 97% | |
| 7 | 9% | 84% | Last Result |
| 8 | 9% | 75% | |
| 9 | 20% | 66% | Median |
| 10 | 18% | 46% | |
| 11 | 20% | 28% | |
| 12 | 2% | 8% | |
| 13 | 5% | 6% | |
| 14 | 1.1% | 1.3% | |
| 15 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party/Comhaontas Glas page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 2 | 82% | 99.6% | Last Result, Median |
| 3 | 18% | 18% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Social Democrats
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Social Democrats page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 34% | 100% | Last Result |
| 4 | 66% | 66% | Median |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Solidarity–People Before Profit
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Solidarity–People Before Profit page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 40% | 100% | |
| 1 | 26% | 60% | Median |
| 2 | 25% | 34% | |
| 3 | 9% | 9% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Independents 4 Change
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents 4 Change page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2% | 100% | |
| 1 | 20% | 98% | |
| 2 | 59% | 77% | Median |
| 3 | 15% | 19% | |
| 4 | 3% | 3% | Last Result |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Renua Ireland
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Renua Ireland page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fine Gael – Fianna Fáil | 93 | 109 | 100% | 107–112 | 107–112 | 105–113 | 104–114 |
| Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats | 61 | 84 | 97% | 81–86 | 81–88 | 80–88 | 78–89 |
| Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas | 58 | 81 | 52% | 77–82 | 77–84 | 76–84 | 74–86 |
| Fine Gael – Labour Party | 56 | 79 | 7% | 75–80 | 74–82 | 74–82 | 72–84 |
| Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas | 51 | 71 | 0% | 70–73 | 69–73 | 68–73 | 67–74 |
| Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin | 67 | 68 | 0% | 67–71 | 65–72 | 64–72 | 62–74 |
| Fine Gael | 49 | 69 | 0% | 68–70 | 67–71 | 66–71 | 65–71 |
| Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats | 56 | 55 | 0% | 54–57 | 54–58 | 53–58 | 51–59 |
| Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas | 53 | 51 | 0% | 50–54 | 50–54 | 49–55 | 47–56 |
| Fianna Fáil – Labour Party | 51 | 49 | 0% | 48–52 | 47–52 | 46–53 | 45–54 |
| Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas | 46 | 43 | 0% | 40–45 | 40–45 | 40–45 | 39–46 |
Fine Gael – Fianna Fáil
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 93 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 94 | 0% | 100% | |
| 95 | 0% | 100% | |
| 96 | 0% | 100% | |
| 97 | 0% | 100% | |
| 98 | 0% | 100% | |
| 99 | 0% | 100% | |
| 100 | 0% | 100% | |
| 101 | 0% | 100% | |
| 102 | 0% | 100% | |
| 103 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 104 | 0.7% | 99.8% | |
| 105 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 106 | 0.8% | 97% | |
| 107 | 10% | 96% | |
| 108 | 19% | 86% | |
| 109 | 29% | 67% | |
| 110 | 16% | 38% | Median |
| 111 | 8% | 23% | |
| 112 | 11% | 15% | |
| 113 | 3% | 4% | |
| 114 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 115 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 116 | 0% | 0% |
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 61 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 62 | 0% | 100% | |
| 63 | 0% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0% | 100% | |
| 65 | 0% | 100% | |
| 66 | 0% | 100% | |
| 67 | 0% | 100% | |
| 68 | 0% | 100% | |
| 69 | 0% | 100% | |
| 70 | 0% | 100% | |
| 71 | 0% | 100% | |
| 72 | 0% | 100% | |
| 73 | 0% | 100% | |
| 74 | 0% | 100% | |
| 75 | 0% | 100% | |
| 76 | 0% | 100% | |
| 77 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 78 | 0.7% | 99.5% | |
| 79 | 1.2% | 98.9% | |
| 80 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 81 | 8% | 97% | Majority |
| 82 | 14% | 89% | |
| 83 | 19% | 75% | |
| 84 | 18% | 56% | Median |
| 85 | 16% | 39% | |
| 86 | 16% | 23% | |
| 87 | 2% | 7% | |
| 88 | 4% | 5% | |
| 89 | 0.9% | 1.3% | |
| 90 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 91 | 0% | 0% |
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 58 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 59 | 0% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0% | 100% | |
| 63 | 0% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0% | 100% | |
| 65 | 0% | 100% | |
| 66 | 0% | 100% | |
| 67 | 0% | 100% | |
| 68 | 0% | 100% | |
| 69 | 0% | 100% | |
| 70 | 0% | 100% | |
| 71 | 0% | 100% | |
| 72 | 0% | 100% | |
| 73 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 74 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 75 | 0.9% | 98.9% | |
| 76 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 77 | 8% | 97% | |
| 78 | 11% | 90% | |
| 79 | 14% | 78% | |
| 80 | 12% | 64% | Median |
| 81 | 23% | 52% | Majority |
| 82 | 21% | 28% | |
| 83 | 1.0% | 8% | |
| 84 | 4% | 7% | |
| 85 | 2% | 2% | |
| 86 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% |
Fine Gael – Labour Party
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 56 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 57 | 0% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0% | 100% | |
| 63 | 0% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0% | 100% | |
| 65 | 0% | 100% | |
| 66 | 0% | 100% | |
| 67 | 0% | 100% | |
| 68 | 0% | 100% | |
| 69 | 0% | 100% | |
| 70 | 0% | 100% | |
| 71 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 72 | 0.8% | 99.5% | |
| 73 | 0.9% | 98.7% | |
| 74 | 3% | 98% | |
| 75 | 8% | 95% | |
| 76 | 16% | 86% | |
| 77 | 9% | 70% | |
| 78 | 10% | 62% | Median |
| 79 | 24% | 51% | |
| 80 | 20% | 28% | |
| 81 | 0.9% | 7% | Majority |
| 82 | 4% | 7% | |
| 83 | 2% | 2% | |
| 84 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% |
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 51 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 52 | 0% | 100% | |
| 53 | 0% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0% | 100% | |
| 56 | 0% | 100% | |
| 57 | 0% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0% | 100% | |
| 63 | 0% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0% | 100% | |
| 65 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 66 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 67 | 1.1% | 99.7% | |
| 68 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 69 | 5% | 96% | |
| 70 | 27% | 91% | |
| 71 | 20% | 64% | Median |
| 72 | 29% | 44% | |
| 73 | 15% | 16% | |
| 74 | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% |
Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 61 | 0% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0.9% | 99.9% | |
| 63 | 1.0% | 99.1% | |
| 64 | 3% | 98% | |
| 65 | 4% | 95% | |
| 66 | 1.1% | 91% | |
| 67 | 13% | 90% | Last Result |
| 68 | 32% | 77% | |
| 69 | 7% | 46% | Median |
| 70 | 24% | 39% | |
| 71 | 8% | 15% | |
| 72 | 5% | 6% | |
| 73 | 0.8% | 1.5% | |
| 74 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 75 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 76 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 77 | 0% | 0% |
Fine Gael
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 49 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 50 | 0% | 100% | |
| 51 | 0% | 100% | |
| 52 | 0% | 100% | |
| 53 | 0% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0% | 100% | |
| 56 | 0% | 100% | |
| 57 | 0% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0% | 100% | |
| 63 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 65 | 1.1% | 99.7% | |
| 66 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 67 | 5% | 96% | |
| 68 | 31% | 91% | |
| 69 | 21% | 60% | Median |
| 70 | 31% | 39% | |
| 71 | 8% | 8% | |
| 72 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% |
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 49 | 0% | 100% | |
| 50 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 51 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 52 | 1.2% | 99.4% | |
| 53 | 2% | 98% | |
| 54 | 26% | 96% | |
| 55 | 32% | 70% | |
| 56 | 18% | 38% | Last Result, Median |
| 57 | 14% | 20% | |
| 58 | 5% | 6% | |
| 59 | 1.1% | 1.4% | |
| 60 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% |
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 46 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 47 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 48 | 1.2% | 99.5% | |
| 49 | 2% | 98% | |
| 50 | 21% | 96% | |
| 51 | 26% | 75% | |
| 52 | 24% | 48% | Median |
| 53 | 5% | 24% | Last Result |
| 54 | 16% | 19% | |
| 55 | 2% | 3% | |
| 56 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 57 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% |
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 44 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 45 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 46 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 47 | 5% | 97% | |
| 48 | 28% | 92% | |
| 49 | 19% | 65% | |
| 50 | 22% | 46% | Median |
| 51 | 5% | 24% | Last Result |
| 52 | 16% | 19% | |
| 53 | 2% | 3% | |
| 54 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 55 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% |
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 39 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 40 | 13% | 99.4% | |
| 41 | 16% | 87% | |
| 42 | 10% | 71% | |
| 43 | 41% | 61% | Median |
| 44 | 8% | 20% | |
| 45 | 11% | 12% | |
| 46 | 0.6% | 0.7% | Last Result |
| 47 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Red C
- Commissioner(s): RTÉ
- Fieldwork period: 26 October 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 3468
- Simulations done: 1,048,575
- Error estimate: 1.33%