Opinion Poll by Red C for The Sunday Business Post, 15–22 November 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael 25.5% 33.8% 31.9–35.8% 31.4–36.3% 30.9–36.8% 30.0–37.7%
Fianna Fáil 24.3% 26.9% 25.1–28.8% 24.7–29.3% 24.2–29.7% 23.4–30.7%
Sinn Féin 13.8% 12.9% 11.6–14.4% 11.3–14.8% 11.0–15.1% 10.4–15.9%
Independent 15.9% 8.4% 7.4–9.6% 7.1–10.0% 6.8–10.3% 6.4–10.9%
Labour Party 6.6% 6.0% 5.1–7.1% 4.9–7.4% 4.7–7.7% 4.3–8.2%
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2.7% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.1% 2.1–4.3% 1.9–4.7%
Social Democrats 3.0% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.1% 1.1–3.4%
Independents 4 Change 1.5% 1.1% 0.8–1.7% 0.7–1.8% 0.6–2.0% 0.5–2.3%
Solidarity–People Before Profit 3.9% 0.2% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7% 0.0–0.9%
Renua Ireland 2.2% 0.1% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7% 0.0–0.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael 49 69 64–71 63–72 63–72 59–74
Fianna Fáil 44 52 47–55 45–55 44–56 42–58
Sinn Féin 23 23 18–26 17–28 16–29 16–33
Independent 19 4 3–7 3–7 3–9 3–10
Labour Party 7 7 4–9 3–10 2–13 1–15
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2 1 0–3 0–3 0–3 0–3
Social Democrats 3 3 2–4 1–4 1–4 1–4
Independents 4 Change 4 2 0–4 0–4 0–5 0–5
Solidarity–People Before Profit 6 0 0 0 0 0
Renua Ireland 0 0 0 0 0 0

Fine Gael

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fine Gael page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100% Last Result
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 100%  
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 100%  
56 0% 100%  
57 0.1% 99.9%  
58 0.1% 99.8%  
59 0.3% 99.7%  
60 0.1% 99.4%  
61 0.9% 99.3%  
62 0.7% 98%  
63 3% 98%  
64 7% 94%  
65 2% 87%  
66 5% 85%  
67 6% 80%  
68 22% 75%  
69 20% 52% Median
70 14% 33%  
71 13% 19%  
72 3% 6%  
73 2% 2%  
74 0.4% 0.6%  
75 0.2% 0.2%  
76 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fianna Fáil page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.3% 100%  
42 0.3% 99.7%  
43 0.5% 99.3%  
44 2% 98.8% Last Result
45 3% 97%  
46 2% 94%  
47 4% 92%  
48 5% 88%  
49 12% 83%  
50 9% 71%  
51 11% 62%  
52 20% 51% Median
53 9% 31%  
54 9% 22%  
55 8% 13%  
56 3% 5%  
57 1.0% 1.5%  
58 0.3% 0.5%  
59 0.2% 0.2%  
60 0% 0%  

Sinn Féin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinn Féin page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.3% 100%  
15 0.2% 99.7%  
16 2% 99.5%  
17 7% 97%  
18 3% 90%  
19 7% 87%  
20 6% 80%  
21 5% 75%  
22 14% 69%  
23 22% 55% Last Result, Median
24 6% 34%  
25 9% 27%  
26 8% 18%  
27 2% 9%  
28 3% 7%  
29 2% 4%  
30 0.4% 2%  
31 0.6% 2%  
32 0.6% 1.2%  
33 0.3% 0.6%  
34 0.2% 0.3%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  

Independent

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independent page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 38% 100%  
4 22% 62% Median
5 17% 40%  
6 9% 22%  
7 9% 13%  
8 1.3% 5%  
9 1.2% 3%  
10 2% 2%  
11 0.3% 0.3%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100%  
1 0.6% 99.8%  
2 2% 99.1%  
3 3% 97%  
4 17% 93%  
5 9% 76%  
6 8% 67%  
7 9% 59% Last Result, Median
8 28% 50%  
9 14% 22%  
10 3% 8%  
11 1.2% 5%  
12 0.9% 4%  
13 1.2% 3%  
14 0.6% 1.4%  
15 0.5% 0.8%  
16 0.1% 0.3%  
17 0.1% 0.2%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party/Comhaontas Glas page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 14% 100%  
1 39% 86% Median
2 35% 47% Last Result
3 12% 12%  
4 0.1% 0.2%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Social Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Social Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 8% 100%  
2 8% 92%  
3 68% 84% Last Result, Median
4 15% 15%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Independents 4 Change

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents 4 Change page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 11% 100%  
1 24% 89%  
2 20% 66% Median
3 12% 45%  
4 31% 34% Last Result
5 3% 3%  
6 0% 0%  

Solidarity–People Before Profit

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Solidarity–People Before Profit page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0% Last Result

Renua Ireland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Renua Ireland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael – Fianna Fáil 93 120 100% 115–123 114–124 112–125 108–127
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats 61 80 50% 76–83 74–84 73–86 69–87
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 58 77 10% 73–80 71–81 69–83 67–84
Fine Gael – Labour Party 56 76 4% 72–79 70–80 68–82 65–84
Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin 67 74 4% 69–77 68–80 66–82 65–85
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 51 70 0% 65–73 64–74 64–74 60–75
Fine Gael 49 69 0% 64–71 63–72 63–72 59–74
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats 56 62 0% 58–66 58–68 56–68 54–71
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 53 59 0% 55–63 54–65 53–66 50–68
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party 51 58 0% 54–63 52–64 51–65 49–68
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 46 53 0% 49–56 47–57 46–57 43–59

Fine Gael – Fianna Fáil

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
93 0% 100% Last Result
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0.2% 99.9%  
108 0.3% 99.7%  
109 0.1% 99.4%  
110 0.2% 99.3%  
111 0.6% 99.1%  
112 2% 98%  
113 0.8% 97%  
114 3% 96%  
115 5% 93%  
116 3% 88%  
117 8% 85%  
118 14% 77%  
119 10% 64%  
120 21% 53%  
121 8% 32% Median
122 10% 25%  
123 6% 15%  
124 5% 9%  
125 2% 4%  
126 0.8% 1.3%  
127 0.3% 0.6%  
128 0.3% 0.3%  
129 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100% Last Result
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100%  
66 0.2% 100%  
67 0.1% 99.8%  
68 0.2% 99.8%  
69 0.1% 99.6%  
70 0.3% 99.5%  
71 0.4% 99.2%  
72 0.4% 98.7%  
73 2% 98%  
74 2% 96%  
75 2% 94%  
76 20% 92%  
77 7% 72%  
78 4% 65%  
79 6% 61%  
80 5% 54% Median
81 19% 50% Majority
82 12% 31%  
83 9% 19%  
84 5% 10%  
85 1.5% 5%  
86 1.1% 3%  
87 2% 2%  
88 0.2% 0.5%  
89 0.2% 0.3%  
90 0.1% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100% Last Result
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 100%  
61 0% 100%  
62 0.1% 100%  
63 0% 99.9%  
64 0.1% 99.8%  
65 0.2% 99.8%  
66 0.1% 99.6%  
67 0.5% 99.5%  
68 0.4% 99.0%  
69 1.4% 98.5%  
70 1.0% 97%  
71 2% 96%  
72 3% 95%  
73 19% 91%  
74 6% 72%  
75 2% 66%  
76 8% 64%  
77 8% 56% Median
78 11% 48%  
79 17% 37%  
80 10% 20%  
81 5% 10% Majority
82 1.1% 4%  
83 1.3% 3%  
84 2% 2%  
85 0.2% 0.5%  
86 0.2% 0.3%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0% 100% Last Result
57 0% 100%  
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 100%  
61 0.1% 100%  
62 0% 99.9%  
63 0.1% 99.8%  
64 0.1% 99.7%  
65 0.4% 99.6%  
66 0.4% 99.3%  
67 0.8% 98.9%  
68 2% 98%  
69 0.7% 97%  
70 2% 96%  
71 3% 94%  
72 19% 91%  
73 9% 72%  
74 6% 63%  
75 4% 57%  
76 9% 52% Median
77 21% 44%  
78 9% 23%  
79 8% 14%  
80 2% 7%  
81 1.2% 4% Majority
82 2% 3%  
83 0.5% 1.1%  
84 0.3% 0.6%  
85 0.2% 0.3%  
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100%  
63 0.1% 99.9%  
64 0.2% 99.8%  
65 1.1% 99.6%  
66 1.5% 98%  
67 2% 97% Last Result
68 3% 95%  
69 3% 92%  
70 7% 89%  
71 9% 82%  
72 9% 73%  
73 7% 64%  
74 10% 57%  
75 27% 47% Median
76 3% 21%  
77 9% 18%  
78 2% 10%  
79 2% 7%  
80 2% 6%  
81 1.5% 4% Majority
82 1.0% 3%  
83 0.9% 2%  
84 0.1% 0.7%  
85 0.2% 0.6%  
86 0.2% 0.4%  
87 0.1% 0.2%  
88 0% 0.2%  
89 0.1% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100% Last Result
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 100%  
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 100%  
56 0% 100%  
57 0.1% 100%  
58 0% 99.9%  
59 0.1% 99.8%  
60 0.3% 99.8%  
61 0.2% 99.4%  
62 0.3% 99.2%  
63 0.9% 98.9%  
64 6% 98%  
65 4% 92%  
66 3% 88%  
67 4% 85%  
68 6% 81%  
69 16% 75%  
70 10% 59% Median
71 23% 49%  
72 13% 26%  
73 7% 14%  
74 5% 7%  
75 2% 2%  
76 0.2% 0.4%  
77 0.2% 0.2%  
78 0% 0%  

Fine Gael

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100% Last Result
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 100%  
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 100%  
56 0% 100%  
57 0.1% 99.9%  
58 0.1% 99.8%  
59 0.3% 99.7%  
60 0.1% 99.4%  
61 0.9% 99.3%  
62 0.7% 98%  
63 3% 98%  
64 7% 94%  
65 2% 87%  
66 5% 85%  
67 6% 80%  
68 22% 75%  
69 20% 52% Median
70 14% 33%  
71 13% 19%  
72 3% 6%  
73 2% 2%  
74 0.4% 0.6%  
75 0.2% 0.2%  
76 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.2% 100%  
51 0% 99.8%  
52 0.1% 99.8%  
53 0.2% 99.8%  
54 0.3% 99.6%  
55 1.2% 99.3%  
56 2% 98% Last Result
57 1.5% 97%  
58 6% 95%  
59 4% 89%  
60 19% 85%  
61 8% 66%  
62 14% 58%  
63 10% 45% Median
64 7% 35%  
65 13% 28%  
66 7% 15%  
67 2% 7%  
68 3% 5%  
69 1.1% 2%  
70 0.4% 1.4%  
71 0.8% 1.0%  
72 0.1% 0.2%  
73 0.1% 0.2%  
74 0% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.2% 100%  
48 0% 99.8%  
49 0.1% 99.8%  
50 0.2% 99.7%  
51 0.2% 99.5%  
52 2% 99.3%  
53 1.3% 98% Last Result
54 2% 96%  
55 5% 94%  
56 2% 89%  
57 22% 88%  
58 6% 66%  
59 15% 60%  
60 8% 44% Median
61 8% 36%  
62 8% 28%  
63 13% 20%  
64 2% 7%  
65 3% 5%  
66 1.1% 3%  
67 0.3% 1.5%  
68 0.9% 1.1%  
69 0.1% 0.3%  
70 0.1% 0.2%  
71 0% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.1% 99.9%  
48 0.2% 99.8%  
49 0.2% 99.5%  
50 1.0% 99.3%  
51 2% 98% Last Result
52 2% 96%  
53 3% 94%  
54 5% 91%  
55 5% 86%  
56 18% 81%  
57 13% 63%  
58 12% 50%  
59 6% 38% Median
60 10% 32%  
61 9% 23%  
62 2% 13%  
63 6% 12%  
64 2% 6%  
65 1.3% 3%  
66 0.8% 2%  
67 0.4% 1.1%  
68 0.5% 0.7%  
69 0% 0.2%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.3% 100%  
43 0.3% 99.7%  
44 0.4% 99.4%  
45 1.2% 99.0%  
46 1.3% 98% Last Result
47 4% 97%  
48 1.2% 93%  
49 5% 92%  
50 5% 87%  
51 18% 82%  
52 7% 64%  
53 21% 56% Median
54 10% 35%  
55 11% 26%  
56 6% 14%  
57 6% 8%  
58 1.4% 2%  
59 0.4% 0.6%  
60 0.1% 0.2%  
61 0.1% 0.2%  
62 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations