Opinion Poll by Millward Brown for The Sunday Independent, 1–13 December 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fine Gael | 25.5% | 32.3% | 30.3–34.3% | 29.8–34.9% | 29.3–35.4% | 28.4–36.4% |
| Fianna Fáil | 24.3% | 27.3% | 25.5–29.2% | 24.9–29.8% | 24.5–30.3% | 23.6–31.2% |
| Sinn Féin | 13.8% | 21.2% | 19.5–23.0% | 19.1–23.5% | 18.7–24.0% | 17.9–24.8% |
| Independent | 15.9% | 5.1% | 4.3–6.2% | 4.1–6.5% | 3.9–6.7% | 3.5–7.3% |
| Labour Party | 6.6% | 5.0% | 4.2–6.1% | 4.0–6.4% | 3.8–6.6% | 3.4–7.1% |
| Social Democrats | 3.0% | 2.1% | 1.6–2.8% | 1.4–3.0% | 1.3–3.2% | 1.1–3.6% |
| Solidarity–People Before Profit | 3.9% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.7% | 0.5–1.9% | 0.4–2.2% |
| Green Party/Comhaontas Glas | 2.7% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.7% | 0.5–1.9% | 0.4–2.2% |
| Independents 4 Change | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.4–1.1% | 0.4–1.3% | 0.3–1.4% | 0.2–1.7% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fine Gael | 49 | 61 | 58–63 | 58–63 | 57–66 | 56–67 |
| Fianna Fáil | 44 | 51 | 50–53 | 50–54 | 46–55 | 43–58 |
| Sinn Féin | 23 | 40 | 38–40 | 38–40 | 37–42 | 36–45 |
| Independent | 19 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 0–3 | 0–3 |
| Labour Party | 7 | 3 | 0–7 | 0–7 | 0–7 | 0–8 |
| Social Democrats | 3 | 4 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 1–4 |
| Solidarity–People Before Profit | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Green Party/Comhaontas Glas | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Independents 4 Change | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–4 |
Fine Gael
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fine Gael page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 49 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 50 | 0% | 100% | |
| 51 | 0% | 100% | |
| 52 | 0% | 100% | |
| 53 | 0% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 56 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 57 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 58 | 9% | 97% | |
| 59 | 2% | 88% | |
| 60 | 27% | 86% | |
| 61 | 41% | 59% | Median |
| 62 | 2% | 18% | |
| 63 | 12% | 16% | |
| 64 | 0.4% | 4% | |
| 65 | 1.4% | 4% | |
| 66 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 67 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 68 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% |
Fianna Fáil
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fianna Fáil page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 42 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 43 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 44 | 0.8% | 99.4% | Last Result |
| 45 | 0.7% | 98.7% | |
| 46 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 47 | 1.3% | 97% | |
| 48 | 0.3% | 96% | |
| 49 | 0.4% | 96% | |
| 50 | 25% | 95% | |
| 51 | 53% | 70% | Median |
| 52 | 3% | 17% | |
| 53 | 9% | 14% | |
| 54 | 2% | 5% | |
| 55 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 56 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 57 | 0.1% | 1.3% | |
| 58 | 1.2% | 1.2% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% |
Sinn Féin
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinn Féin page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0% | 100% | |
| 31 | 0% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 37 | 3% | 99.2% | |
| 38 | 9% | 96% | |
| 39 | 33% | 87% | |
| 40 | 49% | 54% | Median |
| 41 | 1.2% | 5% | |
| 42 | 2% | 4% | |
| 43 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 44 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 45 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 46 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% |
Independent
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independent page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4% | 100% | |
| 1 | 73% | 96% | Median |
| 2 | 18% | 23% | |
| 3 | 4% | 4% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Labour Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0.7% | 88% | |
| 2 | 4% | 87% | |
| 3 | 37% | 84% | Median |
| 4 | 10% | 46% | |
| 5 | 2% | 36% | |
| 6 | 0.7% | 34% | |
| 7 | 31% | 33% | Last Result |
| 8 | 2% | 2% | |
| 9 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 10 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Social Democrats
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Social Democrats page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 2 | 11% | 99.0% | |
| 3 | 32% | 88% | Last Result |
| 4 | 56% | 57% | Median |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Solidarity–People Before Profit
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Solidarity–People Before Profit page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.6% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party/Comhaontas Glas page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Independents 4 Change
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents 4 Change page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 97% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 2 | 0.4% | 1.3% | |
| 3 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 4 | 0.5% | 0.5% | Last Result |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fine Gael – Fianna Fáil | 93 | 112 | 100% | 110–114 | 110–114 | 110–115 | 108–116 |
| Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin | 67 | 91 | 99.9% | 89–92 | 88–93 | 85–96 | 82–96 |
| Fine Gael – Labour Party – Social Democrats – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas | 61 | 68 | 0% | 67–70 | 66–70 | 64–72 | 63–74 |
| Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas | 58 | 64 | 0% | 63–67 | 62–67 | 60–69 | 59–72 |
| Fine Gael – Labour Party | 56 | 64 | 0% | 63–67 | 62–67 | 60–69 | 59–72 |
| Fine Gael | 49 | 61 | 0% | 58–63 | 58–63 | 57–66 | 56–67 |
| Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas | 51 | 61 | 0% | 58–63 | 58–63 | 57–66 | 56–67 |
| Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Social Democrats – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas | 56 | 58 | 0% | 55–62 | 55–62 | 53–63 | 49–64 |
| Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas | 53 | 54 | 0% | 51–59 | 51–60 | 50–60 | 46–60 |
| Fianna Fáil – Labour Party | 51 | 54 | 0% | 51–59 | 51–60 | 50–60 | 46–60 |
| Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas | 46 | 51 | 0% | 50–53 | 50–54 | 46–55 | 43–58 |
Fine Gael – Fianna Fáil
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 93 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 94 | 0% | 100% | |
| 95 | 0% | 100% | |
| 96 | 0% | 100% | |
| 97 | 0% | 100% | |
| 98 | 0% | 100% | |
| 99 | 0% | 100% | |
| 100 | 0% | 100% | |
| 101 | 0% | 100% | |
| 102 | 0% | 100% | |
| 103 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 104 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 105 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 106 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 107 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 108 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 109 | 0.9% | 99.1% | |
| 110 | 25% | 98% | |
| 111 | 12% | 73% | |
| 112 | 43% | 61% | Median |
| 113 | 1.4% | 18% | |
| 114 | 14% | 17% | |
| 115 | 2% | 3% | |
| 116 | 0.7% | 0.9% | |
| 117 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 118 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 119 | 0% | 0% |
Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 67 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 68 | 0% | 100% | |
| 69 | 0% | 100% | |
| 70 | 0% | 100% | |
| 71 | 0% | 100% | |
| 72 | 0% | 100% | |
| 73 | 0% | 100% | |
| 74 | 0% | 100% | |
| 75 | 0% | 100% | |
| 76 | 0% | 100% | |
| 77 | 0% | 100% | |
| 78 | 0% | 100% | |
| 79 | 0% | 100% | |
| 80 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 81 | 0.1% | 99.9% | Majority |
| 82 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 83 | 0.1% | 99.2% | |
| 84 | 0.4% | 99.2% | |
| 85 | 1.5% | 98.8% | |
| 86 | 0.9% | 97% | |
| 87 | 0.8% | 96% | |
| 88 | 0.9% | 96% | |
| 89 | 30% | 95% | |
| 90 | 0.6% | 65% | |
| 91 | 49% | 64% | Median |
| 92 | 10% | 16% | |
| 93 | 2% | 6% | |
| 94 | 0.6% | 3% | |
| 95 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 96 | 2% | 3% | |
| 97 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 98 | 0% | 0% |
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Social Democrats – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 61 | 0.2% | 100% | Last Result |
| 62 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 63 | 2% | 99.7% | |
| 64 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 65 | 2% | 97% | |
| 66 | 2% | 95% | |
| 67 | 20% | 93% | |
| 68 | 39% | 74% | Median |
| 69 | 6% | 35% | |
| 70 | 25% | 29% | |
| 71 | 0.7% | 4% | |
| 72 | 2% | 3% | |
| 73 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 74 | 0.8% | 1.3% | |
| 75 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 77 | 0% | 0% |
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0% | 99.8% | Last Result |
| 59 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 60 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 61 | 0.7% | 97% | |
| 62 | 2% | 96% | |
| 63 | 12% | 95% | |
| 64 | 35% | 82% | Median |
| 65 | 17% | 48% | |
| 66 | 2% | 31% | |
| 67 | 25% | 29% | |
| 68 | 0.4% | 4% | |
| 69 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 70 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 71 | 0.6% | 1.3% | |
| 72 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 73 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% |
Fine Gael – Labour Party
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 56 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 57 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 59 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 60 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 61 | 0.7% | 97% | |
| 62 | 2% | 96% | |
| 63 | 12% | 95% | |
| 64 | 35% | 82% | Median |
| 65 | 17% | 48% | |
| 66 | 2% | 31% | |
| 67 | 25% | 29% | |
| 68 | 0.4% | 4% | |
| 69 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 70 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 71 | 0.6% | 1.3% | |
| 72 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 73 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% |
Fine Gael
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 49 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 50 | 0% | 100% | |
| 51 | 0% | 100% | |
| 52 | 0% | 100% | |
| 53 | 0% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 56 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 57 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 58 | 9% | 97% | |
| 59 | 2% | 88% | |
| 60 | 27% | 86% | |
| 61 | 41% | 59% | Median |
| 62 | 2% | 18% | |
| 63 | 12% | 16% | |
| 64 | 0.4% | 4% | |
| 65 | 1.4% | 4% | |
| 66 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 67 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 68 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% |
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 51 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 52 | 0% | 100% | |
| 53 | 0% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 56 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 57 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 58 | 9% | 97% | |
| 59 | 2% | 88% | |
| 60 | 27% | 86% | |
| 61 | 41% | 59% | Median |
| 62 | 2% | 18% | |
| 63 | 12% | 16% | |
| 64 | 0.4% | 4% | |
| 65 | 1.4% | 4% | |
| 66 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 67 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 68 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% |
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Social Democrats – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 47 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 48 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 49 | 0.8% | 99.8% | |
| 50 | 0.6% | 99.1% | |
| 51 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 52 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 53 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 54 | 1.2% | 97% | |
| 55 | 11% | 96% | |
| 56 | 1.2% | 85% | Last Result |
| 57 | 1.3% | 83% | |
| 58 | 39% | 82% | Median |
| 59 | 5% | 44% | |
| 60 | 25% | 39% | |
| 61 | 1.1% | 13% | |
| 62 | 9% | 12% | |
| 63 | 2% | 3% | |
| 64 | 1.2% | 1.4% | |
| 65 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% |
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 45 | 0% | 100% | |
| 46 | 0.7% | 99.9% | |
| 47 | 0.7% | 99.2% | |
| 48 | 0.5% | 98.5% | |
| 49 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 50 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 51 | 12% | 97% | |
| 52 | 0.7% | 85% | |
| 53 | 1.4% | 85% | Last Result |
| 54 | 36% | 83% | Median |
| 55 | 8% | 48% | |
| 56 | 2% | 40% | |
| 57 | 26% | 38% | |
| 58 | 0.7% | 13% | |
| 59 | 2% | 12% | |
| 60 | 10% | 10% | |
| 61 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 62 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% |
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 45 | 0% | 100% | |
| 46 | 0.7% | 99.9% | |
| 47 | 0.7% | 99.2% | |
| 48 | 0.5% | 98.5% | |
| 49 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 50 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 51 | 12% | 97% | Last Result |
| 52 | 0.7% | 85% | |
| 53 | 1.4% | 85% | |
| 54 | 36% | 83% | Median |
| 55 | 8% | 48% | |
| 56 | 2% | 40% | |
| 57 | 26% | 38% | |
| 58 | 0.7% | 13% | |
| 59 | 2% | 12% | |
| 60 | 10% | 10% | |
| 61 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 62 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% |
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 42 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 43 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 44 | 0.8% | 99.4% | |
| 45 | 0.7% | 98.7% | |
| 46 | 0.8% | 98% | Last Result |
| 47 | 1.3% | 97% | |
| 48 | 0.3% | 96% | |
| 49 | 0.4% | 96% | |
| 50 | 25% | 95% | |
| 51 | 53% | 70% | Median |
| 52 | 3% | 17% | |
| 53 | 9% | 14% | |
| 54 | 2% | 5% | |
| 55 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 56 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 57 | 0.1% | 1.3% | |
| 58 | 1.2% | 1.2% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Millward Brown
- Commissioner(s): The Sunday Independent
- Fieldwork period: 1–13 December 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 920
- Simulations done: 131,072
- Error estimate: 0.93%