Opinion Poll by Millward Brown for The Sunday Independent, 1–13 December 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
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Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Fine Gael |
25.5% |
32.3% |
30.3–34.3% |
29.8–34.9% |
29.3–35.4% |
28.4–36.4% |
Fianna Fáil |
24.3% |
27.3% |
25.5–29.2% |
24.9–29.8% |
24.5–30.3% |
23.6–31.2% |
Sinn Féin |
13.8% |
21.2% |
19.5–23.0% |
19.1–23.5% |
18.7–24.0% |
17.9–24.8% |
Independent |
15.9% |
5.1% |
4.3–6.2% |
4.1–6.5% |
3.9–6.7% |
3.5–7.3% |
Labour Party |
6.6% |
5.0% |
4.2–6.1% |
4.0–6.4% |
3.8–6.6% |
3.4–7.1% |
Social Democrats |
3.0% |
2.1% |
1.6–2.8% |
1.4–3.0% |
1.3–3.2% |
1.1–3.6% |
Solidarity–People Before Profit |
3.9% |
1.0% |
0.7–1.5% |
0.6–1.7% |
0.5–1.9% |
0.4–2.2% |
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas |
2.7% |
1.0% |
0.7–1.5% |
0.6–1.7% |
0.5–1.9% |
0.4–2.2% |
Independents 4 Change |
1.5% |
0.7% |
0.4–1.1% |
0.4–1.3% |
0.3–1.4% |
0.2–1.7% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
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
Confidence Intervals
Fine Gael
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fine Gael page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
49 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
50 |
0% |
100% |
|
51 |
0% |
100% |
|
52 |
0% |
100% |
|
53 |
0% |
100% |
|
54 |
0% |
100% |
|
55 |
0.4% |
99.9% |
|
56 |
0.4% |
99.6% |
|
57 |
2% |
99.2% |
|
58 |
9% |
97% |
|
59 |
2% |
88% |
|
60 |
27% |
86% |
|
61 |
41% |
59% |
Median |
62 |
2% |
18% |
|
63 |
12% |
16% |
|
64 |
0.4% |
4% |
|
65 |
1.4% |
4% |
|
66 |
0.8% |
3% |
|
67 |
1.4% |
2% |
|
68 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
69 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
70 |
0% |
0% |
|
Fianna Fáil
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fianna Fáil page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
42 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
43 |
0.3% |
99.7% |
|
44 |
0.8% |
99.4% |
Last Result |
45 |
0.7% |
98.7% |
|
46 |
0.8% |
98% |
|
47 |
1.3% |
97% |
|
48 |
0.3% |
96% |
|
49 |
0.4% |
96% |
|
50 |
25% |
95% |
|
51 |
53% |
70% |
Median |
52 |
3% |
17% |
|
53 |
9% |
14% |
|
54 |
2% |
5% |
|
55 |
1.4% |
3% |
|
56 |
0.4% |
2% |
|
57 |
0.1% |
1.3% |
|
58 |
1.2% |
1.2% |
|
59 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sinn Féin
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinn Féin page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
23 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
24 |
0% |
100% |
|
25 |
0% |
100% |
|
26 |
0% |
100% |
|
27 |
0% |
100% |
|
28 |
0% |
100% |
|
29 |
0% |
100% |
|
30 |
0% |
100% |
|
31 |
0% |
100% |
|
32 |
0% |
100% |
|
33 |
0% |
100% |
|
34 |
0% |
100% |
|
35 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
36 |
0.6% |
99.7% |
|
37 |
3% |
99.2% |
|
38 |
9% |
96% |
|
39 |
33% |
87% |
|
40 |
49% |
54% |
Median |
41 |
1.2% |
5% |
|
42 |
2% |
4% |
|
43 |
0.9% |
2% |
|
44 |
0.3% |
0.8% |
|
45 |
0.3% |
0.5% |
|
46 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
47 |
0% |
0% |
|
Independent
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independent page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
4% |
100% |
|
1 |
73% |
96% |
Median |
2 |
18% |
23% |
|
3 |
4% |
4% |
|
4 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
7 |
0% |
0% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
12 |
0% |
0% |
|
13 |
0% |
0% |
|
14 |
0% |
0% |
|
15 |
0% |
0% |
|
16 |
0% |
0% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Labour Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
12% |
100% |
|
1 |
0.7% |
88% |
|
2 |
4% |
87% |
|
3 |
37% |
84% |
Median |
4 |
10% |
46% |
|
5 |
2% |
36% |
|
6 |
0.7% |
34% |
|
7 |
31% |
33% |
Last Result |
8 |
2% |
2% |
|
9 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
10 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
Social Democrats
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Social Democrats page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
1 |
0.6% |
99.7% |
|
2 |
11% |
99.0% |
|
3 |
32% |
88% |
Last Result |
4 |
56% |
57% |
Median |
5 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
Solidarity–People Before Profit
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Solidarity–People Before Profit page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
99.6% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
2 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
|
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party/Comhaontas Glas page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0% |
0% |
|
2 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Independents 4 Change
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents 4 Change page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
97% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
1.4% |
3% |
|
2 |
0.4% |
1.3% |
|
3 |
0.3% |
0.8% |
|
4 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
Last Result |
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Coalitions

Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Fine Gael – Fianna Fáil |
93 |
112 |
100% |
110–114 |
110–114 |
110–115 |
108–116 |
Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin |
67 |
91 |
99.9% |
89–92 |
88–93 |
85–96 |
82–96 |
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Social Democrats – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas |
61 |
68 |
0% |
67–70 |
66–70 |
64–72 |
63–74 |
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas |
58 |
64 |
0% |
63–67 |
62–67 |
60–69 |
59–72 |
Fine Gael – Labour Party |
56 |
64 |
0% |
63–67 |
62–67 |
60–69 |
59–72 |
Fine Gael |
49 |
61 |
0% |
58–63 |
58–63 |
57–66 |
56–67 |
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas |
51 |
61 |
0% |
58–63 |
58–63 |
57–66 |
56–67 |
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Social Democrats – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas |
56 |
58 |
0% |
55–62 |
55–62 |
53–63 |
49–64 |
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas |
53 |
54 |
0% |
51–59 |
51–60 |
50–60 |
46–60 |
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party |
51 |
54 |
0% |
51–59 |
51–60 |
50–60 |
46–60 |
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas |
46 |
51 |
0% |
50–53 |
50–54 |
46–55 |
43–58 |
Fine Gael – Fianna Fáil

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
93 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
94 |
0% |
100% |
|
95 |
0% |
100% |
|
96 |
0% |
100% |
|
97 |
0% |
100% |
|
98 |
0% |
100% |
|
99 |
0% |
100% |
|
100 |
0% |
100% |
|
101 |
0% |
100% |
|
102 |
0% |
100% |
|
103 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
104 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
105 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
106 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
107 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
108 |
0.5% |
99.6% |
|
109 |
0.9% |
99.1% |
|
110 |
25% |
98% |
|
111 |
12% |
73% |
|
112 |
43% |
61% |
Median |
113 |
1.4% |
18% |
|
114 |
14% |
17% |
|
115 |
2% |
3% |
|
116 |
0.7% |
0.9% |
|
117 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
118 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
119 |
0% |
0% |
|
Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
67 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
68 |
0% |
100% |
|
69 |
0% |
100% |
|
70 |
0% |
100% |
|
71 |
0% |
100% |
|
72 |
0% |
100% |
|
73 |
0% |
100% |
|
74 |
0% |
100% |
|
75 |
0% |
100% |
|
76 |
0% |
100% |
|
77 |
0% |
100% |
|
78 |
0% |
100% |
|
79 |
0% |
100% |
|
80 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
81 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
Majority |
82 |
0.6% |
99.8% |
|
83 |
0.1% |
99.2% |
|
84 |
0.4% |
99.2% |
|
85 |
1.5% |
98.8% |
|
86 |
0.9% |
97% |
|
87 |
0.8% |
96% |
|
88 |
0.9% |
96% |
|
89 |
30% |
95% |
|
90 |
0.6% |
65% |
|
91 |
49% |
64% |
Median |
92 |
10% |
16% |
|
93 |
2% |
6% |
|
94 |
0.6% |
3% |
|
95 |
0.3% |
3% |
|
96 |
2% |
3% |
|
97 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
98 |
0% |
0% |
|
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Social Democrats – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
61 |
0.2% |
100% |
Last Result |
62 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
63 |
2% |
99.7% |
|
64 |
1.0% |
98% |
|
65 |
2% |
97% |
|
66 |
2% |
95% |
|
67 |
20% |
93% |
|
68 |
39% |
74% |
Median |
69 |
6% |
35% |
|
70 |
25% |
29% |
|
71 |
0.7% |
4% |
|
72 |
2% |
3% |
|
73 |
0.4% |
2% |
|
74 |
0.8% |
1.3% |
|
75 |
0.4% |
0.5% |
|
76 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
77 |
0% |
0% |
|
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
57 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
58 |
0% |
99.8% |
Last Result |
59 |
2% |
99.8% |
|
60 |
1.1% |
98% |
|
61 |
0.7% |
97% |
|
62 |
2% |
96% |
|
63 |
12% |
95% |
|
64 |
35% |
82% |
Median |
65 |
17% |
48% |
|
66 |
2% |
31% |
|
67 |
25% |
29% |
|
68 |
0.4% |
4% |
|
69 |
1.3% |
3% |
|
70 |
0.8% |
2% |
|
71 |
0.6% |
1.3% |
|
72 |
0.4% |
0.7% |
|
73 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
74 |
0% |
0% |
|
Fine Gael – Labour Party

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
56 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
57 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
58 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
59 |
2% |
99.8% |
|
60 |
1.1% |
98% |
|
61 |
0.7% |
97% |
|
62 |
2% |
96% |
|
63 |
12% |
95% |
|
64 |
35% |
82% |
Median |
65 |
17% |
48% |
|
66 |
2% |
31% |
|
67 |
25% |
29% |
|
68 |
0.4% |
4% |
|
69 |
1.3% |
3% |
|
70 |
0.8% |
2% |
|
71 |
0.6% |
1.3% |
|
72 |
0.4% |
0.7% |
|
73 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
74 |
0% |
0% |
|
Fine Gael

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
49 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
50 |
0% |
100% |
|
51 |
0% |
100% |
|
52 |
0% |
100% |
|
53 |
0% |
100% |
|
54 |
0% |
100% |
|
55 |
0.4% |
99.9% |
|
56 |
0.4% |
99.6% |
|
57 |
2% |
99.2% |
|
58 |
9% |
97% |
|
59 |
2% |
88% |
|
60 |
27% |
86% |
|
61 |
41% |
59% |
Median |
62 |
2% |
18% |
|
63 |
12% |
16% |
|
64 |
0.4% |
4% |
|
65 |
1.4% |
4% |
|
66 |
0.8% |
3% |
|
67 |
1.4% |
2% |
|
68 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
69 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
70 |
0% |
0% |
|
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
51 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
52 |
0% |
100% |
|
53 |
0% |
100% |
|
54 |
0% |
100% |
|
55 |
0.4% |
99.9% |
|
56 |
0.4% |
99.6% |
|
57 |
2% |
99.2% |
|
58 |
9% |
97% |
|
59 |
2% |
88% |
|
60 |
27% |
86% |
|
61 |
41% |
59% |
Median |
62 |
2% |
18% |
|
63 |
12% |
16% |
|
64 |
0.4% |
4% |
|
65 |
1.4% |
4% |
|
66 |
0.8% |
3% |
|
67 |
1.4% |
2% |
|
68 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
69 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
70 |
0% |
0% |
|
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Social Democrats – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
47 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
48 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
49 |
0.8% |
99.8% |
|
50 |
0.6% |
99.1% |
|
51 |
0.4% |
98% |
|
52 |
0.4% |
98% |
|
53 |
0.6% |
98% |
|
54 |
1.2% |
97% |
|
55 |
11% |
96% |
|
56 |
1.2% |
85% |
Last Result |
57 |
1.3% |
83% |
|
58 |
39% |
82% |
Median |
59 |
5% |
44% |
|
60 |
25% |
39% |
|
61 |
1.1% |
13% |
|
62 |
9% |
12% |
|
63 |
2% |
3% |
|
64 |
1.2% |
1.4% |
|
65 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
66 |
0% |
0% |
|
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
45 |
0% |
100% |
|
46 |
0.7% |
99.9% |
|
47 |
0.7% |
99.2% |
|
48 |
0.5% |
98.5% |
|
49 |
0.3% |
98% |
|
50 |
0.4% |
98% |
|
51 |
12% |
97% |
|
52 |
0.7% |
85% |
|
53 |
1.4% |
85% |
Last Result |
54 |
36% |
83% |
Median |
55 |
8% |
48% |
|
56 |
2% |
40% |
|
57 |
26% |
38% |
|
58 |
0.7% |
13% |
|
59 |
2% |
12% |
|
60 |
10% |
10% |
|
61 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
62 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
63 |
0% |
0% |
|
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
45 |
0% |
100% |
|
46 |
0.7% |
99.9% |
|
47 |
0.7% |
99.2% |
|
48 |
0.5% |
98.5% |
|
49 |
0.3% |
98% |
|
50 |
0.4% |
98% |
|
51 |
12% |
97% |
Last Result |
52 |
0.7% |
85% |
|
53 |
1.4% |
85% |
|
54 |
36% |
83% |
Median |
55 |
8% |
48% |
|
56 |
2% |
40% |
|
57 |
26% |
38% |
|
58 |
0.7% |
13% |
|
59 |
2% |
12% |
|
60 |
10% |
10% |
|
61 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
62 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
63 |
0% |
0% |
|
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
42 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
43 |
0.3% |
99.7% |
|
44 |
0.8% |
99.4% |
|
45 |
0.7% |
98.7% |
|
46 |
0.8% |
98% |
Last Result |
47 |
1.3% |
97% |
|
48 |
0.3% |
96% |
|
49 |
0.4% |
96% |
|
50 |
25% |
95% |
|
51 |
53% |
70% |
Median |
52 |
3% |
17% |
|
53 |
9% |
14% |
|
54 |
2% |
5% |
|
55 |
1.4% |
3% |
|
56 |
0.4% |
2% |
|
57 |
0.1% |
1.3% |
|
58 |
1.2% |
1.2% |
|
59 |
0% |
0% |
|
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Millward Brown
- Commissioner(s): The Sunday Independent
- Fieldwork period: 1–13 December 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 920
- Simulations done: 131,072
- Error estimate: 0.93%