Opinion Poll by Behaviour and Attitudes for The Sunday Times, 6–18 December 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael 25.5% 30.7% 28.8–32.8% 28.3–33.3% 27.8–33.8% 26.9–34.8%
Fianna Fáil 24.3% 28.8% 26.9–30.7% 26.4–31.3% 25.9–31.8% 25.0–32.8%
Sinn Féin 13.8% 16.8% 15.3–18.5% 14.9–18.9% 14.5–19.4% 13.8–20.2%
Independent 15.9% 8.3% 7.3–9.6% 7.0–10.0% 6.7–10.3% 6.2–11.0%
Labour Party 6.6% 4.9% 4.1–6.0% 3.9–6.3% 3.7–6.6% 3.4–7.1%
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2.7% 3.0% 2.3–3.8% 2.2–4.1% 2.0–4.3% 1.8–4.7%
Solidarity–People Before Profit 3.9% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.2–3.1% 1.1–3.5%
Social Democrats 3.0% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.2–3.1% 1.1–3.5%
Independents 4 Change 1.5% 1.1% 0.8–1.7% 0.7–1.9% 0.6–2.0% 0.5–2.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael 49 59 57–63 55–65 55–67 52–68
Fianna Fáil 44 55 49–56 48–57 47–58 45–60
Sinn Féin 23 33 29–35 28–36 28–36 25–37
Independent 19 3 3–4 3–5 3–6 3–8
Labour Party 7 2 1–5 0–7 0–7 0–8
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2 1 0–2 0–3 0–3 0–4
Solidarity–People Before Profit 6 0 0–3 0–3 0–4 0–4
Social Democrats 3 4 3–4 3–4 2–4 0–4
Independents 4 Change 4 2 0–4 0–4 0–4 0–5

Fine Gael

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fine Gael page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100% Last Result
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.3% 99.9%  
52 0.3% 99.5%  
53 0.4% 99.2%  
54 0.3% 98.8%  
55 4% 98%  
56 2% 94%  
57 9% 92%  
58 6% 83%  
59 40% 76% Median
60 15% 36%  
61 10% 21%  
62 0.7% 11%  
63 3% 10%  
64 2% 7%  
65 1.4% 5%  
66 0.9% 4%  
67 2% 3%  
68 0.4% 0.6%  
69 0.2% 0.2%  
70 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fianna Fáil page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.3% 99.9%  
44 0.1% 99.6% Last Result
45 1.0% 99.6%  
46 0.4% 98.6%  
47 2% 98%  
48 5% 97%  
49 2% 92%  
50 10% 90%  
51 4% 80%  
52 5% 76%  
53 6% 72%  
54 15% 65%  
55 3% 50% Median
56 38% 47%  
57 5% 9%  
58 3% 4%  
59 0.9% 1.4%  
60 0.4% 0.5%  
61 0.1% 0.2%  
62 0% 0%  

Sinn Féin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinn Féin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0% 100%  
23 0.2% 99.9% Last Result
24 0.1% 99.8%  
25 0.3% 99.6%  
26 0.9% 99.3%  
27 0.5% 98%  
28 5% 98%  
29 7% 93%  
30 5% 87%  
31 7% 82%  
32 6% 75%  
33 40% 69% Median
34 8% 29%  
35 15% 21%  
36 4% 7%  
37 2% 2%  
38 0.1% 0.3%  
39 0.2% 0.2%  
40 0% 0%  

Independent

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independent page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 77% 100% Median
4 17% 23%  
5 3% 6%  
6 2% 4%  
7 0.5% 1.4%  
8 0.7% 0.9%  
9 0.1% 0.2%  
10 0% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 6% 100%  
1 8% 94%  
2 54% 87% Median
3 13% 32%  
4 6% 19%  
5 4% 13%  
6 4% 9%  
7 3% 5% Last Result
8 2% 2%  
9 0% 0.2%  
10 0.1% 0.2%  
11 0% 0.1%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party/Comhaontas Glas page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 22% 100%  
1 52% 78% Median
2 18% 26% Last Result
3 7% 8%  
4 0.9% 0.9%  
5 0% 0%  

Solidarity–People Before Profit

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Solidarity–People Before Profit page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 58% 100% Median
1 6% 42%  
2 5% 36%  
3 28% 31%  
4 3% 3%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0% Last Result

Social Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Social Democrats page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.1% 100%  
1 0.6% 98.9%  
2 3% 98%  
3 38% 95% Last Result
4 57% 57% Median
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Independents 4 Change

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents 4 Change page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 10% 100%  
1 5% 90%  
2 49% 85% Median
3 4% 36%  
4 31% 32% Last Result
5 0.9% 0.9%  
6 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael – Fianna Fáil 93 114 100% 109–115 108–116 106–117 106–120
Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin 67 88 92% 81–89 80–90 78–91 76–95
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats 61 66 0% 63–71 62–72 61–75 59–77
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 58 62 0% 60–67 59–69 58–72 56–73
Fine Gael – Labour Party 56 61 0% 59–66 58–68 56–69 54–71
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 51 60 0% 58–64 57–66 56–68 53–70
Fine Gael 49 59 0% 57–63 55–65 55–67 52–68
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats 56 62 0% 56–63 55–64 53–65 51–68
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 53 59 0% 53–60 52–61 51–62 48–65
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party 51 58 0% 53–58 50–60 49–61 48–63
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 46 56 0% 50–58 50–58 48–60 45–61

Fine Gael – Fianna Fáil

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
93 0% 100% Last Result
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0.2% 100%  
105 0.1% 99.7%  
106 3% 99.7%  
107 0.6% 97%  
108 5% 96%  
109 3% 92%  
110 4% 88%  
111 10% 84%  
112 9% 75%  
113 6% 66%  
114 14% 60% Median
115 36% 45%  
116 5% 9%  
117 2% 4%  
118 0.5% 2%  
119 1.0% 2%  
120 0.3% 0.6%  
121 0.1% 0.3%  
122 0.1% 0.2%  
123 0.1% 0.1%  
124 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0.2% 99.9%  
76 0.4% 99.7%  
77 0.4% 99.3%  
78 2% 98.9%  
79 2% 97%  
80 4% 95%  
81 3% 92% Majority
82 4% 89%  
83 10% 85%  
84 5% 75%  
85 8% 71%  
86 5% 63%  
87 2% 57%  
88 7% 55% Median
89 42% 48%  
90 2% 6%  
91 3% 5%  
92 0.7% 2%  
93 0.3% 1.1%  
94 0.2% 0.8%  
95 0.5% 0.6%  
96 0.1% 0.2%  
97 0% 0.1%  
98 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0% 100%  
57 0.1% 99.9%  
58 0.2% 99.8%  
59 1.0% 99.7%  
60 0.6% 98.7%  
61 1.1% 98% Last Result
62 6% 97%  
63 2% 91%  
64 4% 89%  
65 3% 85%  
66 48% 82% Median
67 11% 34%  
68 4% 24%  
69 5% 20%  
70 4% 15%  
71 5% 11%  
72 2% 7%  
73 2% 5%  
74 0.5% 3%  
75 0.6% 3%  
76 1.5% 2%  
77 0.5% 0.6%  
78 0% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0.1% 99.9%  
55 0.1% 99.8%  
56 0.7% 99.6%  
57 0.4% 98.9%  
58 2% 98.5% Last Result
59 5% 96%  
60 1.2% 91%  
61 5% 90%  
62 41% 85% Median
63 10% 43%  
64 12% 34%  
65 3% 21%  
66 5% 18%  
67 4% 13%  
68 4% 10%  
69 1.3% 6%  
70 1.5% 5%  
71 0.4% 3%  
72 2% 3%  
73 0.5% 0.6%  
74 0.1% 0.2%  
75 0% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.1% 99.9%  
54 0.4% 99.8%  
55 0.4% 99.4%  
56 2% 99.0% Last Result
57 0.7% 97%  
58 5% 96%  
59 3% 91%  
60 3% 88%  
61 39% 85% Median
62 19% 47%  
63 4% 28%  
64 9% 24%  
65 3% 15%  
66 5% 12%  
67 0.5% 7%  
68 3% 7%  
69 2% 4%  
70 1.1% 2%  
71 0.2% 0.6%  
72 0.3% 0.4%  
73 0% 0.1%  
74 0% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100% Last Result
52 0.2% 99.9%  
53 0.4% 99.7%  
54 0.3% 99.3%  
55 0.9% 99.1%  
56 2% 98%  
57 3% 96%  
58 8% 93%  
59 10% 85%  
60 41% 74% Median
61 10% 34%  
62 8% 24%  
63 4% 16%  
64 5% 12%  
65 1.0% 7%  
66 3% 6%  
67 0.9% 4%  
68 0.5% 3%  
69 0.3% 2%  
70 2% 2%  
71 0.2% 0.3%  
72 0% 0%  

Fine Gael

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100% Last Result
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.3% 99.9%  
52 0.3% 99.5%  
53 0.4% 99.2%  
54 0.3% 98.8%  
55 4% 98%  
56 2% 94%  
57 9% 92%  
58 6% 83%  
59 40% 76% Median
60 15% 36%  
61 10% 21%  
62 0.7% 11%  
63 3% 10%  
64 2% 7%  
65 1.4% 5%  
66 0.9% 4%  
67 2% 3%  
68 0.4% 0.6%  
69 0.2% 0.2%  
70 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.1% 99.9%  
51 0.9% 99.8%  
52 0.1% 98.8%  
53 1.4% 98.8%  
54 0.2% 97%  
55 2% 97%  
56 7% 95% Last Result
57 2% 88%  
58 3% 86%  
59 6% 83%  
60 12% 77%  
61 6% 66%  
62 13% 60% Median
63 41% 47%  
64 3% 6%  
65 2% 3%  
66 0.6% 2%  
67 0.3% 1.0%  
68 0.4% 0.7%  
69 0.1% 0.3%  
70 0.1% 0.2%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.1% 99.9%  
48 0.9% 99.8%  
49 0.3% 98.9%  
50 1.1% 98.6%  
51 0.6% 98%  
52 4% 97%  
53 6% 93% Last Result
54 3% 87%  
55 4% 85%  
56 12% 81%  
57 4% 68%  
58 4% 64% Median
59 47% 60%  
60 6% 13%  
61 3% 7%  
62 3% 4%  
63 0.7% 1.5%  
64 0.2% 0.8%  
65 0.3% 0.6%  
66 0.1% 0.3%  
67 0% 0.1%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0% 100%  
46 0.1% 99.9%  
47 0.1% 99.8%  
48 1.2% 99.7%  
49 2% 98%  
50 2% 97%  
51 1.3% 94% Last Result
52 3% 93%  
53 8% 90%  
54 6% 82%  
55 4% 75%  
56 8% 71%  
57 5% 63% Median
58 48% 58%  
59 4% 10%  
60 3% 6%  
61 1.4% 3%  
62 0.8% 2%  
63 0.5% 0.8%  
64 0.1% 0.3%  
65 0.1% 0.2%  
66 0% 0.1%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0% 99.9%  
44 0.1% 99.9%  
45 1.1% 99.9%  
46 0.2% 98.7% Last Result
47 0.3% 98.6%  
48 0.8% 98%  
49 0.7% 97%  
50 10% 97%  
51 3% 86%  
52 5% 83%  
53 5% 79%  
54 10% 73%  
55 12% 64%  
56 3% 52% Median
57 38% 49%  
58 7% 11%  
59 1.4% 4%  
60 2% 3%  
61 0.5% 0.8%  
62 0.2% 0.3%  
63 0.1% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations