Opinion Poll by Ireland Thinks for The Irish Daily Mail, 14–21 December 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael 25.5% 31.4% 29.9–32.9% 29.5–33.3% 29.1–33.7% 28.4–34.5%
Fianna Fáil 24.3% 22.6% 21.2–24.0% 20.9–24.4% 20.6–24.7% 19.9–25.4%
Sinn Féin 13.8% 15.7% 14.6–17.0% 14.3–17.3% 14.0–17.6% 13.5–18.2%
Independent 15.9% 10.8% 9.8–11.9% 9.6–12.2% 9.3–12.5% 8.9–13.0%
Labour Party 6.6% 6.9% 6.1–7.8% 5.9–8.0% 5.7–8.2% 5.3–8.7%
Solidarity–People Before Profit 3.9% 3.9% 3.4–4.7% 3.2–4.9% 3.1–5.0% 2.8–5.4%
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2.7% 3.9% 3.4–4.7% 3.2–4.9% 3.1–5.0% 2.8–5.4%
Social Democrats 3.0% 2.9% 2.4–3.5% 2.3–3.7% 2.2–3.9% 2.0–4.2%
Independents 4 Change 1.5% 1.4% 1.1–1.8% 1.0–2.0% 0.9–2.1% 0.8–2.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael 49 62 59–64 57–66 55–67 53–68
Fianna Fáil 44 39 36–44 35–44 34–44 34–47
Sinn Féin 23 32 29–34 27–34 25–34 22–34
Independent 19 6 4–10 4–11 4–12 4–15
Labour Party 7 6 6–13 4–13 3–14 1–16
Solidarity–People Before Profit 6 3 3–6 3–6 3–7 3–9
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2 2 2–3 1–4 1–4 0–5
Social Democrats 3 4 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–5
Independents 4 Change 4 3 1–4 0–4 0–5 0–5

Fine Gael

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fine Gael page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100% Last Result
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0.3% 99.9%  
53 0.5% 99.7%  
54 0.4% 99.2%  
55 2% 98.8%  
56 2% 97%  
57 2% 96%  
58 2% 94%  
59 12% 92%  
60 20% 79%  
61 5% 60%  
62 26% 55% Median
63 12% 29%  
64 6% 16%  
65 1.1% 10%  
66 5% 9%  
67 2% 4%  
68 2% 2%  
69 0.1% 0.2%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fianna Fáil page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.2% 100%  
34 4% 99.8%  
35 5% 96%  
36 10% 91%  
37 18% 81%  
38 11% 63%  
39 18% 52% Median
40 17% 34%  
41 2% 17%  
42 1.3% 15%  
43 2% 14%  
44 10% 12% Last Result
45 1.1% 2%  
46 0.1% 0.7%  
47 0.3% 0.6%  
48 0.1% 0.2%  
49 0% 0.1%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0%  

Sinn Féin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinn Féin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 0.1% 99.8%  
22 1.4% 99.8%  
23 0.2% 98% Last Result
24 0.4% 98%  
25 0.6% 98%  
26 0.4% 97%  
27 2% 97%  
28 3% 95%  
29 2% 92%  
30 5% 89%  
31 26% 84%  
32 23% 59% Median
33 11% 36%  
34 24% 24%  
35 0.2% 0.2%  
36 0% 0%  

Independent

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independent page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 25% 100%  
5 8% 75%  
6 29% 67% Median
7 3% 37%  
8 5% 34%  
9 3% 29%  
10 18% 27%  
11 5% 9%  
12 2% 4%  
13 0.4% 2%  
14 0.5% 2%  
15 0.7% 1.0%  
16 0.3% 0.3%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 2% 100%  
2 0.6% 98%  
3 2% 98%  
4 3% 96%  
5 3% 93%  
6 41% 90% Median
7 11% 49% Last Result
8 3% 38%  
9 5% 35%  
10 2% 30%  
11 1.3% 28%  
12 3% 27%  
13 20% 23%  
14 2% 4%  
15 0.9% 2%  
16 0.6% 0.9%  
17 0.2% 0.3%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Solidarity–People Before Profit

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Solidarity–People Before Profit page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 58% 100% Median
4 15% 42%  
5 6% 27%  
6 17% 21% Last Result
7 2% 4%  
8 1.2% 2%  
9 0.6% 0.6%  
10 0% 0%  

Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party/Comhaontas Glas page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.5% 100%  
1 6% 99.5%  
2 69% 94% Last Result, Median
3 17% 25%  
4 7% 8%  
5 0.8% 0.8%  
6 0% 0%  

Social Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Social Democrats page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 29% 100% Last Result
4 69% 71% Median
5 1.0% 1.0%  
6 0% 0%  

Independents 4 Change

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents 4 Change page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 9% 100%  
1 8% 91%  
2 17% 83%  
3 47% 66% Median
4 15% 19% Last Result
5 4% 4%  
6 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael – Fianna Fáil 93 101 100% 95–104 93–105 92–108 90–110
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats 61 75 3% 71–79 71–80 70–81 67–84
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 58 71 1.4% 68–75 68–76 66–77 63–81
Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin 67 70 0.1% 66–75 65–77 62–77 60–78
Fine Gael – Labour Party 56 69 0% 65–73 65–74 64–75 61–79
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 51 64 0% 61–67 60–69 58–70 56–70
Fine Gael 49 62 0% 59–64 57–66 55–67 53–68
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats 56 53 0% 48–56 47–56 46–59 45–62
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 53 49 0% 44–53 44–53 43–56 41–59
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party 51 46 0% 43–50 41–50 40–54 39–56
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 46 41 0% 38–46 37–47 36–47 35–49

Fine Gael – Fianna Fáil

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
88 0.1% 100%  
89 0.1% 99.9%  
90 1.1% 99.8%  
91 0.3% 98.7%  
92 1.5% 98%  
93 2% 97% Last Result
94 2% 95%  
95 3% 93%  
96 5% 90%  
97 17% 84%  
98 3% 67%  
99 1.3% 64%  
100 1.4% 63%  
101 20% 61% Median
102 13% 42%  
103 17% 29%  
104 4% 12%  
105 3% 8%  
106 0.7% 5%  
107 1.1% 4%  
108 0.4% 3%  
109 0.3% 2%  
110 2% 2%  
111 0.4% 0.5%  
112 0% 0.1%  
113 0% 0.1%  
114 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100% Last Result
62 0.1% 100%  
63 0% 99.9%  
64 0% 99.9%  
65 0.1% 99.9%  
66 0.2% 99.8%  
67 0.7% 99.6%  
68 0.2% 99.0%  
69 1.1% 98.8%  
70 0.8% 98%  
71 10% 97%  
72 3% 87%  
73 4% 84%  
74 21% 81% Median
75 19% 60%  
76 8% 41%  
77 3% 34%  
78 4% 30%  
79 20% 26%  
80 3% 6%  
81 1.2% 3% Majority
82 0.4% 2%  
83 0.1% 2%  
84 1.4% 2%  
85 0% 0.2%  
86 0.1% 0.2%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100% Last Result
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0% 99.9%  
61 0% 99.9%  
62 0.2% 99.8%  
63 0.3% 99.6%  
64 0.4% 99.3%  
65 0.5% 98.9%  
66 1.0% 98%  
67 1.3% 97%  
68 11% 96%  
69 2% 85%  
70 22% 83% Median
71 12% 61%  
72 15% 49%  
73 4% 34%  
74 3% 30%  
75 20% 27%  
76 3% 7%  
77 2% 4%  
78 0.3% 2%  
79 0.3% 2%  
80 0.2% 2%  
81 1.3% 1.4% Majority
82 0.1% 0.1%  
83 0% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100%  
58 0% 99.9%  
59 0.1% 99.9%  
60 1.3% 99.8%  
61 0.2% 98.5%  
62 1.3% 98%  
63 1.3% 97%  
64 0.6% 96%  
65 2% 95%  
66 7% 93%  
67 5% 86% Last Result
68 3% 81%  
69 20% 78%  
70 17% 58%  
71 4% 41% Median
72 8% 37%  
73 2% 29%  
74 16% 27%  
75 0.9% 11%  
76 0.6% 10%  
77 9% 9%  
78 0.1% 0.6%  
79 0.3% 0.4%  
80 0.1% 0.2%  
81 0.1% 0.1% Majority
82 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0% 100% Last Result
57 0.1% 100%  
58 0% 99.9%  
59 0% 99.8%  
60 0.2% 99.8%  
61 0.4% 99.6%  
62 0.3% 99.2%  
63 0.4% 98.9%  
64 1.3% 98%  
65 9% 97%  
66 3% 88%  
67 5% 85%  
68 20% 80% Median
69 19% 60%  
70 10% 41%  
71 3% 31%  
72 1.2% 28%  
73 19% 27%  
74 4% 8%  
75 2% 4%  
76 0.4% 2%  
77 0.2% 2%  
78 0.1% 2%  
79 1.4% 1.5%  
80 0% 0.1%  
81 0% 0% Majority

Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100% Last Result
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 100%  
54 0.2% 99.9%  
55 0.2% 99.8%  
56 0.4% 99.6%  
57 1.4% 99.2%  
58 1.2% 98%  
59 1.5% 97%  
60 2% 95%  
61 6% 93%  
62 28% 87%  
63 4% 59%  
64 19% 55% Median
65 18% 36%  
66 6% 18%  
67 3% 12%  
68 3% 9%  
69 2% 6%  
70 3% 4%  
71 0.1% 0.3%  
72 0.2% 0.2%  
73 0% 0%  

Fine Gael

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100% Last Result
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0.3% 99.9%  
53 0.5% 99.7%  
54 0.4% 99.2%  
55 2% 98.8%  
56 2% 97%  
57 2% 96%  
58 2% 94%  
59 12% 92%  
60 20% 79%  
61 5% 60%  
62 26% 55% Median
63 12% 29%  
64 6% 16%  
65 1.1% 10%  
66 5% 9%  
67 2% 4%  
68 2% 2%  
69 0.1% 0.2%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.2% 99.8%  
45 0.5% 99.7%  
46 3% 99.2%  
47 3% 97%  
48 4% 94%  
49 1.0% 90%  
50 6% 89%  
51 19% 83% Median
52 11% 63%  
53 14% 53%  
54 2% 39%  
55 8% 37%  
56 25% 30% Last Result
57 1.1% 5%  
58 0.9% 4%  
59 1.1% 3%  
60 0.4% 2%  
61 0.2% 1.3%  
62 0.7% 1.1%  
63 0% 0.4%  
64 0.1% 0.4%  
65 0.2% 0.3%  
66 0% 0.1%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0% 100%  
40 0.2% 99.9%  
41 0.4% 99.8%  
42 2% 99.3%  
43 1.3% 98%  
44 6% 96%  
45 0.6% 90%  
46 6% 89%  
47 19% 83% Median
48 10% 63%  
49 5% 53%  
50 10% 49%  
51 6% 39%  
52 20% 33%  
53 9% 13% Last Result
54 0.6% 3%  
55 0.2% 3%  
56 1.2% 3%  
57 0.1% 1.4%  
58 0.7% 1.3%  
59 0.2% 0.5%  
60 0% 0.4%  
61 0.2% 0.4%  
62 0% 0.1%  
63 0.1% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.1% 99.9%  
39 0.5% 99.8%  
40 3% 99.3%  
41 1.5% 96%  
42 3% 94%  
43 2% 91%  
44 7% 89%  
45 22% 82% Median
46 11% 61%  
47 10% 50%  
48 2% 40%  
49 6% 38%  
50 28% 33%  
51 1.2% 5% Last Result
52 0.7% 4%  
53 0.3% 3%  
54 1.0% 3%  
55 0.9% 2%  
56 0.3% 0.6%  
57 0% 0.4%  
58 0.1% 0.4%  
59 0.3% 0.3%  
60 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.8% 99.9%  
36 4% 99.1%  
37 4% 96%  
38 9% 92%  
39 18% 83%  
40 10% 65%  
41 17% 55% Median
42 12% 38%  
43 11% 26%  
44 1.1% 15%  
45 2% 14%  
46 2% 12% Last Result
47 9% 10%  
48 0.1% 0.7%  
49 0.3% 0.6%  
50 0.1% 0.3%  
51 0% 0.1%  
52 0% 0.1%  
53 0% 0.1%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations