Opinion Poll by Behaviour and Attitudes for The Sunday Times, 4–15 January 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael 25.5% 30.0% 28.1–32.0% 27.6–32.6% 27.1–33.1% 26.2–34.0%
Fianna Fáil 24.3% 26.0% 24.2–28.0% 23.7–28.5% 23.3–29.0% 22.4–29.9%
Sinn Féin 13.8% 20.0% 18.3–21.7% 17.9–22.3% 17.5–22.7% 16.7–23.6%
Independent 15.9% 11.0% 9.8–12.5% 9.4–12.9% 9.1–13.2% 8.6–14.0%
Labour Party 6.6% 4.0% 3.2–4.9% 3.0–5.2% 2.9–5.5% 2.6–6.0%
Solidarity–People Before Profit 3.9% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.2–3.1% 1.1–3.5%
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2.7% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.2–3.1% 1.1–3.5%
Independents 4 Change 1.5% 1.4% 1.0–2.1% 0.9–2.3% 0.8–2.4% 0.7–2.8%
Social Democrats 3.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.6% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.9% 0.4–2.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael 49 61 55–66 52–67 51–67 47–68
Fianna Fáil 44 47 42–52 41–54 40–55 38–57
Sinn Féin 23 36 34–41 33–42 33–42 33–43
Independent 19 8 6–12 6–14 4–16 4–16
Labour Party 7 0 0–2 0–2 0–3 0–6
Solidarity–People Before Profit 6 1 0–4 0–4 0–4 0–4
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–2
Independents 4 Change 4 4 1–5 0–5 0–5 0–5
Social Democrats 3 0 0–3 0–3 0–3 0–3

Fine Gael

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fine Gael page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0% 100%  
46 0.1% 99.9%  
47 0.7% 99.9%  
48 0.3% 99.2%  
49 0.1% 98.9% Last Result
50 0.4% 98.8%  
51 0.9% 98%  
52 3% 97%  
53 2% 94%  
54 0.8% 92%  
55 16% 92%  
56 2% 75%  
57 2% 73%  
58 3% 71%  
59 6% 68%  
60 9% 61%  
61 7% 52% Median
62 8% 45%  
63 7% 37%  
64 16% 30%  
65 4% 14%  
66 3% 11%  
67 7% 8%  
68 0.7% 0.7%  
69 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fianna Fáil page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.2% 100%  
38 0.6% 99.7%  
39 0.9% 99.2%  
40 2% 98%  
41 5% 96%  
42 2% 91%  
43 2% 89%  
44 2% 87% Last Result
45 6% 84%  
46 15% 78%  
47 16% 63% Median
48 6% 47%  
49 11% 40%  
50 5% 29%  
51 11% 24%  
52 6% 13%  
53 0.7% 7%  
54 2% 7%  
55 3% 4%  
56 0.3% 1.2%  
57 0.7% 0.9%  
58 0.2% 0.2%  
59 0% 0%  

Sinn Féin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinn Féin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0.1% 99.9%  
32 0.2% 99.8%  
33 6% 99.6%  
34 13% 94%  
35 12% 80%  
36 22% 68% Median
37 18% 46%  
38 4% 28%  
39 8% 24%  
40 3% 16%  
41 5% 12%  
42 6% 7%  
43 0.9% 1.4%  
44 0.3% 0.4%  
45 0.1% 0.1%  
46 0% 0%  

Independent

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independent page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.1% 100%  
4 2% 99.9%  
5 1.5% 97%  
6 12% 96%  
7 34% 84%  
8 11% 50% Median
9 14% 39%  
10 3% 25%  
11 5% 22%  
12 8% 17%  
13 4% 9%  
14 1.1% 6%  
15 2% 5%  
16 3% 3%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 64% 100% Median
1 12% 36%  
2 20% 23%  
3 2% 4%  
4 0.7% 2%  
5 0.7% 1.2%  
6 0.3% 0.5%  
7 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
8 0% 0%  

Solidarity–People Before Profit

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Solidarity–People Before Profit page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 27% 100%  
1 44% 73% Median
2 4% 29%  
3 7% 24%  
4 17% 17%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0% Last Result

Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party/Comhaontas Glas page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 95% 100% Median
1 4% 5%  
2 0.9% 1.1% Last Result
3 0.2% 0.2%  
4 0% 0%  

Independents 4 Change

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents 4 Change page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 5% 100%  
1 10% 95%  
2 9% 85%  
3 8% 76%  
4 48% 68% Last Result, Median
5 20% 20%  
6 0% 0%  

Social Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Social Democrats page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 71% 100% Median
1 7% 29%  
2 10% 22%  
3 11% 11% Last Result
4 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael – Fianna Fáil 93 108 100% 104–111 102–112 100–114 97–115
Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin 67 83 82% 78–90 77–94 77–94 75–97
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats 61 62 0% 55–67 53–68 53–68 47–71
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 58 62 0% 55–66 53–67 52–68 47–68
Fine Gael – Labour Party 56 62 0% 55–66 53–67 52–68 47–68
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 51 61 0% 55–66 52–67 52–67 47–68
Fine Gael 49 61 0% 55–66 52–67 51–67 47–68
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 53 48 0% 43–54 41–56 41–56 38–58
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats 56 49 0% 44–54 42–56 41–56 39–59
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party 51 48 0% 43–54 41–56 41–56 38–58
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 46 47 0% 42–52 41–54 40–55 38–57

Fine Gael – Fianna Fáil

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
93 0% 100% Last Result
94 0.2% 100%  
95 0.1% 99.7%  
96 0.1% 99.7%  
97 0.3% 99.5%  
98 0.3% 99.2%  
99 1.2% 99.0%  
100 0.9% 98%  
101 1.5% 97%  
102 3% 95%  
103 1.3% 93%  
104 6% 91%  
105 4% 85%  
106 12% 81%  
107 13% 69%  
108 11% 56% Median
109 8% 45%  
110 21% 38%  
111 9% 17%  
112 4% 7%  
113 1.0% 4%  
114 1.2% 3%  
115 1.3% 1.4%  
116 0% 0.1%  
117 0.1% 0.1%  
118 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0.1% 100%  
72 0% 99.9%  
73 0% 99.9%  
74 0.2% 99.8%  
75 0.9% 99.6%  
76 0.8% 98.7%  
77 4% 98%  
78 4% 94%  
79 5% 90%  
80 2% 85%  
81 7% 82% Majority
82 5% 75%  
83 21% 70% Median
84 8% 49%  
85 5% 41%  
86 6% 37%  
87 11% 30%  
88 3% 20%  
89 1.4% 16%  
90 5% 15%  
91 1.1% 9%  
92 1.2% 8%  
93 1.1% 7%  
94 5% 6%  
95 0.2% 1.3%  
96 0.4% 1.1%  
97 0.4% 0.7%  
98 0.3% 0.4%  
99 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.5% 100%  
48 0.2% 99.5%  
49 0.3% 99.3%  
50 0.1% 99.0%  
51 0.7% 98.9%  
52 0.2% 98%  
53 3% 98%  
54 0.6% 95%  
55 8% 94%  
56 1.1% 86%  
57 9% 85%  
58 1.5% 75%  
59 2% 74%  
60 8% 72%  
61 6% 64% Last Result, Median
62 9% 58%  
63 6% 50%  
64 18% 43%  
65 8% 25%  
66 5% 17%  
67 6% 12%  
68 3% 6%  
69 0.5% 2%  
70 1.0% 2%  
71 0.6% 0.6%  
72 0% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.5% 100%  
48 0.2% 99.4%  
49 0.3% 99.2%  
50 0.2% 98.9%  
51 0.9% 98.8%  
52 0.4% 98%  
53 3% 97%  
54 0.9% 94%  
55 10% 93%  
56 1.3% 83%  
57 8% 82%  
58 2% 73% Last Result
59 2% 71%  
60 10% 69%  
61 8% 59% Median
62 6% 51%  
63 10% 44%  
64 16% 34%  
65 4% 18%  
66 4% 14%  
67 6% 10%  
68 3% 3%  
69 0.2% 0.2%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.5% 99.9%  
48 0.2% 99.4%  
49 0.3% 99.2%  
50 0.2% 98.9%  
51 0.8% 98.7%  
52 0.5% 98%  
53 3% 97%  
54 0.9% 94%  
55 10% 93%  
56 3% 83% Last Result
57 6% 80%  
58 3% 73%  
59 2% 71%  
60 9% 68%  
61 8% 59% Median
62 6% 50%  
63 10% 44%  
64 16% 34%  
65 4% 18%  
66 4% 14%  
67 6% 10%  
68 3% 3%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.6% 99.9%  
48 0.3% 99.3%  
49 0.1% 98.9%  
50 0.3% 98.8%  
51 0.9% 98% Last Result
52 3% 98%  
53 2% 95%  
54 0.7% 93%  
55 15% 92%  
56 3% 77%  
57 2% 74%  
58 3% 71%  
59 6% 68%  
60 9% 62%  
61 7% 53% Median
62 8% 45%  
63 7% 38%  
64 16% 30%  
65 4% 15%  
66 3% 11%  
67 7% 8%  
68 0.9% 0.9%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Fine Gael

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0% 100%  
46 0.1% 99.9%  
47 0.7% 99.9%  
48 0.3% 99.2%  
49 0.1% 98.9% Last Result
50 0.4% 98.8%  
51 0.9% 98%  
52 3% 97%  
53 2% 94%  
54 0.8% 92%  
55 16% 92%  
56 2% 75%  
57 2% 73%  
58 3% 71%  
59 6% 68%  
60 9% 61%  
61 7% 52% Median
62 8% 45%  
63 7% 37%  
64 16% 30%  
65 4% 14%  
66 3% 11%  
67 7% 8%  
68 0.7% 0.7%  
69 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.4% 99.9%  
39 0.6% 99.5%  
40 0.6% 98.8%  
41 5% 98%  
42 3% 94%  
43 2% 91%  
44 2% 89%  
45 6% 87%  
46 14% 80%  
47 14% 66% Median
48 5% 53%  
49 10% 48%  
50 5% 38%  
51 16% 33%  
52 3% 17%  
53 1.2% 14% Last Result
54 7% 13%  
55 0.9% 6%  
56 4% 5%  
57 0.7% 1.4%  
58 0.4% 0.7%  
59 0.2% 0.3%  
60 0% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.2% 100%  
39 0.4% 99.7%  
40 0.5% 99.3%  
41 4% 98.8%  
42 3% 95%  
43 1.0% 92%  
44 3% 91%  
45 4% 88%  
46 16% 84%  
47 8% 68% Median
48 3% 60%  
49 12% 57%  
50 5% 46%  
51 17% 40%  
52 4% 23%  
53 4% 19%  
54 8% 15%  
55 1.1% 7%  
56 4% 6% Last Result
57 0.8% 2%  
58 0.5% 1.2%  
59 0.4% 0.7%  
60 0.1% 0.3%  
61 0.2% 0.2%  
62 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.5% 99.9%  
39 0.8% 99.4%  
40 0.4% 98.5%  
41 4% 98%  
42 3% 94%  
43 2% 90%  
44 2% 89%  
45 6% 86%  
46 14% 80%  
47 14% 66% Median
48 5% 52%  
49 10% 47%  
50 7% 38%  
51 15% 31% Last Result
52 3% 17%  
53 1.2% 13%  
54 6% 12%  
55 0.9% 6%  
56 4% 5%  
57 0.6% 1.3%  
58 0.4% 0.7%  
59 0.2% 0.3%  
60 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.2% 100%  
38 0.5% 99.7%  
39 0.7% 99.3%  
40 2% 98.5%  
41 5% 96%  
42 2% 91%  
43 2% 89%  
44 3% 87%  
45 6% 85%  
46 15% 78% Last Result
47 16% 63% Median
48 6% 47%  
49 10% 41%  
50 6% 31%  
51 11% 25%  
52 6% 13%  
53 0.8% 8%  
54 2% 7%  
55 3% 4%  
56 0.4% 1.3%  
57 0.7% 0.9%  
58 0.2% 0.2%  
59 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations