Opinion Poll by Red C for The Sunday Business Post, 17–24 January 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael 25.5% 32.3% 30.3–34.1% 29.8–34.7% 29.4–35.2% 28.5–36.1%
Fianna Fáil 24.3% 22.2% 20.6–24.0% 20.1–24.4% 19.7–24.9% 19.0–25.7%
Sinn Féin 13.8% 13.1% 11.8–14.6% 11.4–15.0% 11.1–15.3% 10.6–16.1%
Independent 15.9% 11.9% 10.7–13.3% 10.3–13.7% 10.0–14.1% 9.5–14.8%
Labour Party 6.6% 6.0% 5.1–7.1% 4.9–7.4% 4.7–7.7% 4.3–8.2%
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2.7% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.1% 2.1–4.3% 1.9–4.7%
Solidarity–People Before Profit 3.9% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.1% 1.1–3.4%
Social Democrats 3.0% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.1% 1.1–3.4%
Independents 4 Change 1.5% 1.5% 1.1–2.1% 1.0–2.3% 0.9–2.5% 0.7–2.8%
Renua Ireland 2.2% 0.1% 0.2–0.7% 0.1–0.8% 0.1–0.9% 0.1–1.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael 49 67 63–70 62–71 62–71 57–71
Fianna Fáil 44 42 39–46 38–46 37–47 35–50
Sinn Féin 23 25 20–28 19–29 18–30 16–33
Independent 19 9 8–14 8–15 7–16 5–16
Labour Party 7 5 4–9 3–11 2–13 1–14
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2 1 1–2 0–2 0–2 0–3
Solidarity–People Before Profit 6 2 0–3 0–3 0–3 0–4
Social Democrats 3 3 3 3–4 3–4 1–4
Independents 4 Change 4 4 3–5 2–5 2–5 1–5
Renua Ireland 0 0 0 0 0 0

Fine Gael

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fine Gael page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100% Last Result
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0% 99.9%  
54 0.1% 99.9%  
55 0.1% 99.8%  
56 0.1% 99.8%  
57 0.2% 99.7%  
58 0.1% 99.4%  
59 0.4% 99.3%  
60 0.5% 98.9%  
61 0.5% 98%  
62 6% 98%  
63 4% 91%  
64 2% 87%  
65 2% 85%  
66 5% 83%  
67 35% 78% Median
68 6% 43%  
69 16% 37%  
70 14% 21%  
71 7% 7%  
72 0.2% 0.4%  
73 0.2% 0.2%  
74 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fianna Fáil page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.3% 100%  
35 0.8% 99.7%  
36 0.2% 98.9%  
37 3% 98.7%  
38 4% 96%  
39 7% 92%  
40 8% 86%  
41 12% 78%  
42 36% 66% Median
43 5% 30%  
44 4% 25% Last Result
45 9% 21%  
46 8% 12%  
47 2% 4%  
48 0.7% 2%  
49 0.3% 1.1%  
50 0.5% 0.7%  
51 0.2% 0.3%  
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Sinn Féin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinn Féin page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.2% 100%  
16 0.5% 99.8%  
17 0.9% 99.3%  
18 2% 98%  
19 3% 96%  
20 17% 93%  
21 5% 76%  
22 5% 71%  
23 3% 65% Last Result
24 10% 62%  
25 10% 52% Median
26 2% 43%  
27 5% 41%  
28 30% 36%  
29 2% 6%  
30 2% 4%  
31 0.7% 2%  
32 0.8% 1.4%  
33 0.4% 0.6%  
34 0.1% 0.2%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  

Independent

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independent page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.3% 100%  
5 1.0% 99.7%  
6 1.1% 98.7%  
7 2% 98%  
8 16% 96%  
9 30% 80% Median
10 4% 50%  
11 7% 46%  
12 13% 39%  
13 11% 27%  
14 7% 16%  
15 6% 9%  
16 3% 3%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 1.2% 99.9%  
2 2% 98.7%  
3 3% 97%  
4 38% 94%  
5 15% 56% Median
6 13% 41%  
7 4% 28% Last Result
8 8% 24%  
9 9% 17%  
10 2% 7%  
11 2% 6%  
12 0.5% 4%  
13 2% 3%  
14 1.0% 1.2%  
15 0.1% 0.2%  
16 0% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party/Comhaontas Glas page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 7% 100%  
1 61% 93% Median
2 31% 33% Last Result
3 2% 2%  
4 0.1% 0.2%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Solidarity–People Before Profit

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Solidarity–People Before Profit page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 32% 100%  
1 4% 68%  
2 42% 64% Median
3 21% 22%  
4 1.3% 1.4%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0% Last Result

Social Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Social Democrats page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.8% 100%  
2 0.4% 99.2%  
3 93% 98.8% Last Result, Median
4 5% 5%  
5 0% 0%  

Independents 4 Change

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents 4 Change page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.4% 100%  
1 1.1% 99.6%  
2 8% 98.5%  
3 12% 91%  
4 56% 78% Last Result, Median
5 22% 22%  
6 0% 0%  

Renua Ireland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Renua Ireland page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael – Fianna Fáil 93 109 100% 104–115 103–115 101–115 99–117
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats 61 76 22% 73–83 72–83 72–85 68–87
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 58 73 4% 70–80 69–80 69–81 65–84
Fine Gael – Labour Party 56 72 2% 68–78 67–79 67–80 63–83
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 51 68 0% 65–71 64–72 63–73 59–73
Fine Gael 49 67 0% 63–70 62–71 62–71 57–71
Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin 67 66 0% 62–70 60–70 59–71 57–75
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats 56 51 0% 49–58 47–60 46–60 44–62
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 53 48 0% 46–55 44–57 43–57 41–59
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party 51 46 0% 45–53 42–55 42–55 40–58
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 46 43 0% 40–48 39–48 38–49 36–53

Fine Gael – Fianna Fáil

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
93 0% 100% Last Result
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0.1% 99.9%  
97 0.2% 99.9%  
98 0.1% 99.7%  
99 0.4% 99.6%  
100 0.9% 99.2%  
101 1.1% 98%  
102 1.0% 97%  
103 3% 96%  
104 6% 93%  
105 3% 87%  
106 5% 84%  
107 2% 79%  
108 8% 77%  
109 33% 68% Median
110 3% 35%  
111 5% 32%  
112 6% 27%  
113 2% 21%  
114 1.0% 20%  
115 17% 19%  
116 0.9% 2%  
117 0.3% 0.8%  
118 0.4% 0.5%  
119 0.1% 0.1%  
120 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100% Last Result
62 0% 100%  
63 0.1% 100%  
64 0.1% 99.9%  
65 0.1% 99.9%  
66 0.1% 99.8%  
67 0.1% 99.7%  
68 0.4% 99.7%  
69 0.2% 99.3%  
70 1.1% 99.0%  
71 0.4% 98%  
72 7% 98%  
73 2% 91%  
74 1.0% 88%  
75 33% 87%  
76 4% 54% Median
77 5% 50%  
78 7% 44%  
79 7% 38%  
80 9% 31%  
81 7% 22% Majority
82 2% 15%  
83 8% 12%  
84 2% 4%  
85 0.7% 3%  
86 1.2% 2%  
87 0.4% 0.6%  
88 0.1% 0.2%  
89 0% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100% Last Result
59 0% 100%  
60 0.1% 100%  
61 0% 99.9%  
62 0.1% 99.9%  
63 0.1% 99.9%  
64 0.2% 99.7%  
65 0.3% 99.6%  
66 0.3% 99.3%  
67 1.1% 99.0%  
68 0.4% 98%  
69 7% 98%  
70 2% 90%  
71 1.1% 89%  
72 33% 87%  
73 5% 55% Median
74 6% 50%  
75 7% 44%  
76 6% 37%  
77 10% 31%  
78 6% 21%  
79 2% 14%  
80 8% 12%  
81 2% 4% Majority
82 0.6% 2%  
83 1.2% 2%  
84 0.4% 0.6%  
85 0.1% 0.2%  
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0% 100% Last Result
57 0% 100%  
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 99.9%  
61 0% 99.9%  
62 0.2% 99.8%  
63 0.2% 99.6%  
64 0.1% 99.4%  
65 0.5% 99.3%  
66 1.0% 98.8%  
67 7% 98%  
68 0.9% 91%  
69 2% 90%  
70 1.0% 88%  
71 35% 87%  
72 5% 52% Median
73 4% 47%  
74 9% 43%  
75 3% 34%  
76 14% 31%  
77 4% 18%  
78 8% 13%  
79 2% 5%  
80 0.7% 3%  
81 0.6% 2% Majority
82 1.2% 2%  
83 0.5% 0.6%  
84 0.1% 0.1%  
85 0.1% 0.1%  
86 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100% Last Result
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 100%  
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0% 99.9%  
56 0.1% 99.8%  
57 0% 99.8%  
58 0.2% 99.7%  
59 0.2% 99.5%  
60 0.2% 99.4%  
61 0.6% 99.2%  
62 0.6% 98.6%  
63 1.0% 98%  
64 7% 97%  
65 5% 90%  
66 3% 85%  
67 3% 82%  
68 37% 79% Median
69 2% 42%  
70 9% 40%  
71 24% 32%  
72 5% 8%  
73 3% 3%  
74 0.1% 0.3%  
75 0.2% 0.2%  
76 0% 0%  

Fine Gael

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100% Last Result
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0% 99.9%  
54 0.1% 99.9%  
55 0.1% 99.8%  
56 0.1% 99.8%  
57 0.2% 99.7%  
58 0.1% 99.4%  
59 0.4% 99.3%  
60 0.5% 98.9%  
61 0.5% 98%  
62 6% 98%  
63 4% 91%  
64 2% 87%  
65 2% 85%  
66 5% 83%  
67 35% 78% Median
68 6% 43%  
69 16% 37%  
70 14% 21%  
71 7% 7%  
72 0.2% 0.4%  
73 0.2% 0.2%  
74 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.4% 99.8%  
58 0.9% 99.4%  
59 3% 98.5%  
60 2% 95%  
61 3% 94%  
62 7% 91%  
63 3% 85%  
64 4% 82%  
65 14% 77%  
66 19% 63%  
67 3% 44% Last Result, Median
68 3% 42%  
69 2% 39%  
70 33% 37%  
71 1.3% 4%  
72 0.9% 2%  
73 0.6% 2%  
74 0.2% 0.9%  
75 0.3% 0.7%  
76 0.3% 0.4%  
77 0% 0.1%  
78 0.1% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.2% 99.9%  
44 0.4% 99.7%  
45 1.1% 99.3%  
46 1.0% 98%  
47 3% 97%  
48 1.1% 94%  
49 10% 93%  
50 30% 83%  
51 7% 52% Median
52 9% 45%  
53 5% 36%  
54 3% 32%  
55 11% 29%  
56 5% 18% Last Result
57 2% 13%  
58 1.3% 11%  
59 1.4% 10%  
60 8% 8%  
61 0.1% 0.6%  
62 0.2% 0.5%  
63 0.1% 0.3%  
64 0% 0.2%  
65 0% 0.1%  
66 0% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.2% 99.9%  
41 0.4% 99.7%  
42 2% 99.3%  
43 0.4% 98%  
44 4% 97%  
45 0.6% 93%  
46 10% 93%  
47 31% 83%  
48 7% 52% Median
49 9% 45%  
50 4% 36%  
51 3% 32%  
52 11% 29%  
53 5% 18% Last Result
54 2% 13%  
55 2% 11%  
56 1.2% 9%  
57 8% 8%  
58 0.1% 0.6%  
59 0.2% 0.5%  
60 0.1% 0.3%  
61 0% 0.1%  
62 0% 0.1%  
63 0.1% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.1% 99.8%  
40 0.5% 99.7%  
41 2% 99.2%  
42 3% 98%  
43 1.2% 94%  
44 1.2% 93%  
45 10% 92%  
46 33% 82%  
47 9% 49% Median
48 6% 40%  
49 3% 34%  
50 3% 31%  
51 13% 28% Last Result
52 3% 15%  
53 2% 12%  
54 2% 10%  
55 8% 8%  
56 0.1% 0.8%  
57 0.1% 0.7%  
58 0.2% 0.5%  
59 0.1% 0.3%  
60 0% 0.1%  
61 0% 0.1%  
62 0% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.3% 100%  
36 0.7% 99.7%  
37 0.3% 98.9%  
38 2% 98.6%  
39 4% 97%  
40 5% 93%  
41 9% 88%  
42 9% 79%  
43 33% 70% Median
44 9% 36%  
45 4% 27%  
46 10% 22% Last Result
47 1.5% 13%  
48 8% 11%  
49 2% 3%  
50 0.3% 1.1%  
51 0.1% 0.8%  
52 0.2% 0.7%  
53 0.5% 0.5%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations