Opinion Poll by Red C for The Sunday Business Post, 14–20 February 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael 25.5% 30.9% 29.1–32.8% 28.5–33.4% 28.1–33.8% 27.3–34.8%
Fianna Fáil 24.3% 23.9% 22.2–25.7% 21.8–26.2% 21.4–26.6% 20.6–27.5%
Sinn Féin 13.8% 18.0% 16.5–19.6% 16.1–20.1% 15.7–20.5% 15.0–21.3%
Independent 15.9% 12.6% 11.3–14.0% 11.0–14.4% 10.7–14.8% 10.1–15.5%
Labour Party 6.6% 5.0% 4.2–6.0% 4.0–6.3% 3.8–6.5% 3.5–7.1%
Social Democrats 3.0% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.1% 1.1–3.4%
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2.7% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.1% 1.1–3.4%
Independents 4 Change 1.5% 1.6% 1.2–2.2% 1.1–2.4% 1.0–2.6% 0.8–2.9%
Solidarity–People Before Profit 3.9% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.8% 0.4–2.1%
Renua Ireland 2.2% 0.1% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7% 0.0–0.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael 49 63 54–64 52–66 52–67 52–68
Fianna Fáil 44 39 38–46 38–49 38–49 37–50
Sinn Féin 23 36 33–37 32–37 31–38 30–39
Independent 19 14 9–16 9–16 8–16 6–16
Labour Party 7 2 2–4 2–5 0–7 0–8
Social Democrats 3 3 3 3 2–4 1–4
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2 0 0–1 0–1 0–2 0–2
Independents 4 Change 4 4 2–5 2–5 1–5 0–5
Solidarity–People Before Profit 6 0 0 0 0–1 0–2
Renua Ireland 0 0 0 0 0 0

Fine Gael

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fine Gael page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100% Last Result
50 0.1% 99.9%  
51 0.1% 99.8%  
52 5% 99.7%  
53 0.1% 95%  
54 5% 95%  
55 6% 89%  
56 0.2% 84%  
57 1.4% 83%  
58 1.3% 82%  
59 4% 81%  
60 3% 76%  
61 2% 73%  
62 15% 71%  
63 24% 57% Median
64 26% 33%  
65 2% 7%  
66 2% 5%  
67 3% 3%  
68 0.4% 0.8%  
69 0.2% 0.5%  
70 0.2% 0.2%  
71 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fianna Fáil page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0% 100%  
37 0.8% 99.9%  
38 23% 99.1%  
39 30% 76% Median
40 4% 46%  
41 15% 42%  
42 4% 26%  
43 2% 23%  
44 2% 21% Last Result
45 1.4% 19%  
46 8% 18%  
47 3% 9%  
48 0.7% 7%  
49 4% 6%  
50 1.3% 1.5%  
51 0.1% 0.2%  
52 0% 0.1%  
53 0% 0.1%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Sinn Féin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinn Féin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0.2% 100%  
28 0% 99.7%  
29 0.1% 99.7%  
30 0.2% 99.6%  
31 3% 99.4%  
32 2% 96%  
33 27% 95%  
34 7% 68%  
35 3% 60%  
36 12% 58% Median
37 44% 46%  
38 2% 3%  
39 1.0% 1.1%  
40 0% 0.1%  
41 0% 0.1%  
42 0% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  

Independent

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independent page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.3% 100%  
6 0.4% 99.6%  
7 1.1% 99.2%  
8 2% 98%  
9 22% 96%  
10 6% 74%  
11 6% 68%  
12 2% 62%  
13 9% 61%  
14 20% 52% Median
15 1.0% 32%  
16 31% 31%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 3% 100%  
1 1.1% 97%  
2 53% 96% Median
3 5% 43%  
4 32% 38%  
5 2% 6%  
6 0.5% 4%  
7 3% 4% Last Result
8 0.9% 1.1%  
9 0.1% 0.2%  
10 0.1% 0.2%  
11 0% 0.1%  
12 0% 0.1%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Social Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Social Democrats page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.7% 100%  
2 3% 99.3%  
3 94% 96% Last Result, Median
4 3% 3%  
5 0% 0%  

Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party/Comhaontas Glas page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 89% 100% Median
1 8% 11%  
2 3% 3% Last Result
3 0.1% 0.1%  
4 0% 0%  

Independents 4 Change

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents 4 Change page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.0% 100%  
1 3% 99.0%  
2 19% 96%  
3 20% 76%  
4 16% 56% Last Result, Median
5 40% 40%  
6 0% 0%  

Solidarity–People Before Profit

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Solidarity–People Before Profit page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 97% 100% Median
1 2% 3%  
2 0.7% 0.7%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0% Last Result

Renua Ireland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Renua Ireland page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael – Fianna Fáil 93 102 100% 101–104 99–107 99–108 97–112
Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin 67 75 9% 74–80 72–83 71–83 70–85
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats 61 69 0% 61–70 59–72 57–73 57–75
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 58 66 0% 58–67 56–69 54–70 54–72
Fine Gael – Labour Party 56 66 0% 58–67 56–69 54–70 54–72
Fine Gael 49 63 0% 54–64 52–66 52–67 52–68
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 51 63 0% 54–65 52–66 52–67 52–69
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats 56 46 0% 43–53 43–54 43–54 43–60
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 53 43 0% 40–50 40–51 40–51 40–57
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party 51 43 0% 40–50 40–51 40–51 39–57
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 46 40 0% 38–46 38–49 38–49 37–50

Fine Gael – Fianna Fáil

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 99.9% Last Result
94 0% 99.9%  
95 0.1% 99.9%  
96 0.1% 99.8%  
97 0.6% 99.6%  
98 1.5% 99.1%  
99 3% 98%  
100 4% 94%  
101 13% 90%  
102 47% 77% Median
103 19% 30%  
104 1.2% 10%  
105 3% 9%  
106 0.8% 6%  
107 3% 6%  
108 0.6% 3%  
109 0.8% 2%  
110 0.6% 1.4%  
111 0.3% 0.9%  
112 0.2% 0.5%  
113 0.2% 0.3%  
114 0% 0.1%  
115 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0.1% 100%  
69 0% 99.9%  
70 0.5% 99.8%  
71 3% 99.4%  
72 3% 96%  
73 0.9% 94%  
74 17% 93%  
75 28% 76% Median
76 22% 48%  
77 1.0% 26%  
78 5% 25%  
79 9% 20%  
80 2% 11%  
81 0.6% 9% Majority
82 0.7% 8%  
83 5% 7%  
84 0.7% 2%  
85 1.4% 1.5%  
86 0.1% 0.1%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 4% 99.9%  
58 0.4% 96%  
59 3% 95%  
60 0.4% 92%  
61 4% 92% Last Result
62 4% 88%  
63 2% 83%  
64 4% 81%  
65 1.1% 77%  
66 0.5% 76%  
67 13% 76%  
68 3% 63% Median
69 22% 60%  
70 29% 38%  
71 3% 9%  
72 3% 6%  
73 2% 3%  
74 0.4% 1.1%  
75 0.3% 0.7%  
76 0.3% 0.4%  
77 0% 0.1%  
78 0.1% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100%  
54 4% 99.9%  
55 0.3% 96%  
56 1.3% 95%  
57 2% 94%  
58 4% 92% Last Result
59 4% 88%  
60 2% 83%  
61 4% 81%  
62 1.2% 77%  
63 0.6% 76%  
64 12% 76%  
65 3% 63% Median
66 23% 60%  
67 29% 38%  
68 3% 9%  
69 3% 6%  
70 2% 3%  
71 0.7% 1.3%  
72 0.2% 0.6%  
73 0.3% 0.4%  
74 0% 0.1%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0% 100%  
53 0.1% 99.9%  
54 4% 99.8%  
55 0.3% 96%  
56 1.3% 95% Last Result
57 2% 94%  
58 4% 92%  
59 5% 88%  
60 2% 83%  
61 4% 81%  
62 1.2% 77%  
63 3% 76%  
64 12% 73%  
65 2% 61% Median
66 26% 59%  
67 25% 33%  
68 2% 8%  
69 2% 5%  
70 2% 3%  
71 0.5% 1.1%  
72 0.2% 0.6%  
73 0.3% 0.4%  
74 0% 0.1%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  

Fine Gael

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100% Last Result
50 0.1% 99.9%  
51 0.1% 99.8%  
52 5% 99.7%  
53 0.1% 95%  
54 5% 95%  
55 6% 89%  
56 0.2% 84%  
57 1.4% 83%  
58 1.3% 82%  
59 4% 81%  
60 3% 76%  
61 2% 73%  
62 15% 71%  
63 24% 57% Median
64 26% 33%  
65 2% 7%  
66 2% 5%  
67 3% 3%  
68 0.4% 0.8%  
69 0.2% 0.5%  
70 0.2% 0.2%  
71 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0% 99.9%  
51 0.1% 99.8% Last Result
52 5% 99.7%  
53 0% 95%  
54 5% 95%  
55 6% 89%  
56 0.3% 84%  
57 1.1% 83%  
58 2% 82%  
59 4% 81%  
60 0.9% 76%  
61 1.0% 75%  
62 18% 75%  
63 23% 57% Median
64 23% 34%  
65 5% 11%  
66 3% 6%  
67 3% 4%  
68 0.3% 0.9%  
69 0.3% 0.6%  
70 0.3% 0.3%  
71 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0% 99.9%  
41 0% 99.9%  
42 0.2% 99.8%  
43 22% 99.7%  
44 2% 78% Median
45 7% 76%  
46 36% 69%  
47 6% 33%  
48 2% 27%  
49 2% 25%  
50 2% 23%  
51 4% 20%  
52 0.5% 16%  
53 8% 16%  
54 5% 7%  
55 0.7% 2%  
56 0.6% 1.4% Last Result
57 0.1% 0.8%  
58 0.1% 0.7%  
59 0.1% 0.6%  
60 0% 0.5%  
61 0.5% 0.5%  
62 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.2% 100%  
39 0.1% 99.8%  
40 22% 99.7%  
41 3% 78% Median
42 6% 75%  
43 36% 69%  
44 6% 33%  
45 2% 27%  
46 2% 25%  
47 2% 23%  
48 3% 21%  
49 3% 18%  
50 8% 16%  
51 5% 7%  
52 0.6% 2%  
53 0.6% 1.3% Last Result
54 0.1% 0.8%  
55 0.1% 0.7%  
56 0.1% 0.6%  
57 0% 0.5%  
58 0.5% 0.5%  
59 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.3% 100%  
39 0.3% 99.7%  
40 24% 99.4%  
41 5% 76% Median
42 3% 71%  
43 37% 67%  
44 4% 31%  
45 3% 27%  
46 1.4% 24%  
47 2% 23%  
48 3% 21%  
49 2% 18%  
50 8% 15%  
51 6% 7% Last Result
52 0.4% 2%  
53 0.4% 1.2%  
54 0.1% 0.7%  
55 0.1% 0.7%  
56 0.1% 0.6%  
57 0.1% 0.5%  
58 0.4% 0.4%  
59 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.8% 100%  
38 21% 99.2%  
39 26% 78% Median
40 7% 52%  
41 18% 45%  
42 4% 27%  
43 2% 23%  
44 1.1% 21%  
45 2% 20%  
46 8% 18% Last Result
47 3% 10%  
48 0.8% 7%  
49 4% 6%  
50 1.3% 2%  
51 0.1% 0.2%  
52 0% 0.1%  
53 0% 0.1%  
54 0% 0.1%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations