Opinion Poll by Ipsos MRBI for The Irish Times, 4–5 March 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael 25.5% 30.0% 28.3–31.7% 27.9–32.2% 27.5–32.7% 26.7–33.5%
Fianna Fáil 24.3% 24.0% 22.5–25.6% 22.0–26.1% 21.7–26.5% 20.9–27.3%
Sinn Féin 13.8% 21.0% 19.5–22.6% 19.1–23.0% 18.8–23.4% 18.1–24.2%
Independent 15.9% 11.0% 9.9–12.2% 9.6–12.6% 9.3–12.9% 8.9–13.5%
Labour Party 6.6% 6.0% 5.2–7.0% 5.0–7.3% 4.8–7.5% 4.4–8.0%
Solidarity–People Before Profit 3.9% 2.0% 1.6–2.6% 1.4–2.8% 1.3–3.0% 1.2–3.3%
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2.7% 2.0% 1.6–2.6% 1.4–2.8% 1.3–3.0% 1.2–3.3%
Independents 4 Change 1.5% 1.4% 1.1–2.0% 1.0–2.1% 0.9–2.3% 0.7–2.6%
Social Democrats 3.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.6% 0.6–1.8% 0.5–2.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael 49 60 54–64 53–65 52–66 49–66
Fianna Fáil 44 42 38–48 37–48 37–49 36–51
Sinn Féin 23 39 36–42 35–43 35–43 34–46
Independent 19 7 5–12 5–14 5–15 4–16
Labour Party 7 6 2–9 2–10 2–11 1–14
Solidarity–People Before Profit 6 0 0–3 0–3 0–3 0–4
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1
Independents 4 Change 4 4 1–5 0–5 0–5 0–5
Social Democrats 3 0 0–2 0–3 0–3 0–3

Fine Gael

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fine Gael page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0% 100%  
47 0.1% 99.9%  
48 0.1% 99.8%  
49 0.4% 99.7% Last Result
50 0.5% 99.2%  
51 0.6% 98.7%  
52 2% 98%  
53 2% 96%  
54 5% 94%  
55 8% 89%  
56 5% 82%  
57 11% 77%  
58 5% 66%  
59 11% 62%  
60 6% 50% Median
61 4% 44%  
62 11% 40%  
63 14% 30%  
64 9% 16%  
65 4% 7%  
66 2% 3%  
67 0.4% 0.4%  
68 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fianna Fáil page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.3% 100%  
36 2% 99.7%  
37 5% 98%  
38 3% 93%  
39 11% 90%  
40 10% 79%  
41 16% 69%  
42 7% 54% Median
43 8% 47%  
44 6% 38% Last Result
45 9% 32%  
46 9% 24%  
47 4% 15%  
48 7% 11%  
49 3% 4%  
50 0.6% 1.2%  
51 0.4% 0.6%  
52 0.1% 0.3%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Sinn Féin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinn Féin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.2% 99.9%  
34 2% 99.7%  
35 6% 98%  
36 7% 91%  
37 12% 84%  
38 13% 72%  
39 18% 59% Median
40 12% 41%  
41 13% 29%  
42 8% 16%  
43 6% 8%  
44 1.2% 2%  
45 0.5% 1.1%  
46 0.5% 0.6%  
47 0% 0%  

Independent

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independent page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.4% 100%  
4 0.9% 99.6%  
5 14% 98.7%  
6 21% 85%  
7 15% 64% Median
8 20% 48%  
9 5% 29%  
10 7% 24%  
11 6% 17%  
12 2% 11%  
13 2% 9%  
14 3% 6%  
15 2% 3%  
16 2% 2%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 0.7% 99.9%  
2 10% 99.3%  
3 17% 89%  
4 12% 72%  
5 8% 60%  
6 21% 51% Median
7 11% 30% Last Result
8 6% 19%  
9 7% 13%  
10 3% 6%  
11 1.1% 3%  
12 1.0% 2%  
13 0.6% 1.2%  
14 0.3% 0.5%  
15 0.1% 0.3%  
16 0.1% 0.2%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Solidarity–People Before Profit

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Solidarity–People Before Profit page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 55% 100% Median
1 27% 45%  
2 5% 18%  
3 12% 13%  
4 0.8% 0.8%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0% Last Result

Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party/Comhaontas Glas page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 91% 100% Median
1 8% 9%  
2 0.4% 0.4% Last Result
3 0% 0%  

Independents 4 Change

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents 4 Change page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 6% 100%  
1 13% 94%  
2 4% 82%  
3 23% 78%  
4 45% 55% Last Result, Median
5 10% 10%  
6 0% 0%  

Social Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Social Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 54% 100% Median
1 22% 46%  
2 13% 23%  
3 10% 10% Last Result
4 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael – Fianna Fáil 93 103 100% 97–107 95–107 93–108 91–109
Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin 67 81 51% 77–87 76–88 75–89 74–91
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats 61 66 0% 60–71 58–72 58–73 55–75
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 58 65 0% 60–70 58–71 57–72 54–73
Fine Gael – Labour Party 56 65 0% 60–70 58–71 57–72 54–73
Fine Gael 49 60 0% 54–64 53–65 52–66 49–66
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 51 60 0% 54–64 53–65 52–66 49–67
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 53 48 0% 43–53 41–55 41–56 39–58
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats 56 49 0% 44–54 42–56 41–56 39–59
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party 51 48 0% 43–53 41–55 40–56 39–58
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 46 42 0% 39–48 37–48 37–49 36–51

Fine Gael – Fianna Fáil

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 99.9%  
89 0.3% 99.9%  
90 0.1% 99.6%  
91 0.4% 99.5%  
92 0.6% 99.1%  
93 1.2% 98.5% Last Result
94 1.2% 97%  
95 2% 96%  
96 4% 94%  
97 2% 90%  
98 5% 89%  
99 6% 83%  
100 10% 77%  
101 8% 67%  
102 8% 59% Median
103 9% 51%  
104 15% 42%  
105 8% 27%  
106 8% 19%  
107 7% 11%  
108 2% 4%  
109 1.4% 2%  
110 0.2% 0.4%  
111 0.2% 0.2%  
112 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0.1% 99.9%  
73 0.3% 99.8%  
74 1.3% 99.5%  
75 2% 98%  
76 5% 96%  
77 7% 92%  
78 9% 85%  
79 16% 76%  
80 10% 61%  
81 4% 51% Median, Majority
82 6% 47%  
83 7% 41%  
84 8% 34%  
85 5% 26%  
86 7% 21%  
87 6% 15%  
88 5% 9%  
89 2% 4%  
90 1.2% 2%  
91 0.2% 0.7%  
92 0.2% 0.5%  
93 0.1% 0.2%  
94 0.1% 0.1%  
95 0.1% 0.1%  
96 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.1% 99.9%  
54 0.3% 99.8%  
55 0.5% 99.5%  
56 0.4% 99.0%  
57 0.6% 98.7%  
58 4% 98%  
59 2% 94%  
60 5% 93%  
61 4% 88% Last Result
62 6% 84%  
63 9% 78%  
64 9% 69%  
65 9% 60%  
66 4% 52% Median
67 4% 47%  
68 10% 43%  
69 11% 33%  
70 4% 21%  
71 12% 17%  
72 2% 5%  
73 2% 3%  
74 0.9% 1.4%  
75 0.4% 0.5%  
76 0.1% 0.2%  
77 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.2% 100%  
53 0.1% 99.7%  
54 0.2% 99.6%  
55 0.5% 99.4%  
56 0.7% 98.9%  
57 2% 98%  
58 4% 97% Last Result
59 3% 93%  
60 6% 90%  
61 5% 84%  
62 7% 80%  
63 10% 72%  
64 9% 63%  
65 6% 54%  
66 7% 48% Median
67 9% 41%  
68 6% 32%  
69 8% 26%  
70 11% 18%  
71 4% 7%  
72 2% 3%  
73 1.0% 1.4%  
74 0.3% 0.4%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.3% 100%  
53 0.1% 99.7%  
54 0.3% 99.6%  
55 0.5% 99.3%  
56 0.8% 98.8% Last Result
57 2% 98%  
58 4% 96%  
59 3% 93%  
60 6% 90%  
61 4% 84%  
62 8% 80%  
63 10% 72%  
64 10% 62%  
65 5% 52%  
66 8% 47% Median
67 9% 40%  
68 5% 30%  
69 8% 25%  
70 11% 18%  
71 4% 7%  
72 2% 3%  
73 0.9% 1.3%  
74 0.3% 0.4%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  

Fine Gael

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0% 100%  
47 0.1% 99.9%  
48 0.1% 99.8%  
49 0.4% 99.7% Last Result
50 0.5% 99.2%  
51 0.6% 98.7%  
52 2% 98%  
53 2% 96%  
54 5% 94%  
55 8% 89%  
56 5% 82%  
57 11% 77%  
58 5% 66%  
59 11% 62%  
60 6% 50% Median
61 4% 44%  
62 11% 40%  
63 14% 30%  
64 9% 16%  
65 4% 7%  
66 2% 3%  
67 0.4% 0.4%  
68 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0% 100%  
47 0.1% 99.9%  
48 0.1% 99.8%  
49 0.4% 99.7%  
50 0.5% 99.3%  
51 0.5% 98.8% Last Result
52 2% 98%  
53 2% 96%  
54 5% 94%  
55 7% 89%  
56 4% 82%  
57 11% 78%  
58 5% 67%  
59 11% 62%  
60 7% 51% Median
61 4% 45%  
62 10% 41%  
63 14% 30%  
64 10% 17%  
65 4% 7%  
66 2% 3%  
67 1.0% 1.1%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.3% 100%  
39 1.1% 99.7%  
40 0.8% 98.6%  
41 3% 98%  
42 3% 95%  
43 5% 91%  
44 9% 86%  
45 3% 77%  
46 7% 74%  
47 12% 67%  
48 10% 55% Median
49 7% 45%  
50 7% 37%  
51 10% 31%  
52 4% 20%  
53 7% 16% Last Result
54 3% 9%  
55 2% 6%  
56 2% 3%  
57 0.7% 1.4%  
58 0.3% 0.7%  
59 0.2% 0.4%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.5% 100%  
40 1.0% 99.5%  
41 2% 98%  
42 2% 96%  
43 3% 94%  
44 4% 91%  
45 9% 87%  
46 4% 78%  
47 15% 74%  
48 9% 60% Median
49 6% 50%  
50 6% 44%  
51 12% 38%  
52 5% 26%  
53 8% 21%  
54 4% 13%  
55 3% 8%  
56 3% 5% Last Result
57 1.0% 2%  
58 0.4% 1.3%  
59 0.6% 0.9%  
60 0.2% 0.3%  
61 0.1% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.3% 100%  
39 1.2% 99.7%  
40 1.0% 98%  
41 4% 97%  
42 3% 94%  
43 5% 91%  
44 9% 85%  
45 3% 76%  
46 7% 74%  
47 13% 67%  
48 9% 54% Median
49 8% 45%  
50 6% 36%  
51 10% 30% Last Result
52 5% 20%  
53 7% 15%  
54 3% 9%  
55 2% 6%  
56 2% 3%  
57 0.6% 1.2%  
58 0.3% 0.7%  
59 0.2% 0.3%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.3% 100%  
36 2% 99.7%  
37 5% 98%  
38 3% 93%  
39 10% 91%  
40 11% 80%  
41 15% 70%  
42 7% 55% Median
43 9% 48%  
44 6% 38%  
45 7% 33%  
46 10% 25% Last Result
47 5% 16%  
48 7% 11%  
49 3% 4%  
50 0.5% 1.3%  
51 0.4% 0.8%  
52 0.2% 0.3%  
53 0.1% 0.2%  
54 0% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations