Opinion Poll by Behaviour and Attitudes for The Sunday Times, 28 February–12 March 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fine Gael | 25.5% | 31.5% | 29.6–33.5% | 29.1–34.1% | 28.6–34.6% | 27.7–35.5% |
| Fianna Fáil | 24.3% | 25.4% | 23.6–27.3% | 23.1–27.8% | 22.7–28.3% | 21.9–29.2% |
| Sinn Féin | 13.8% | 19.3% | 17.7–21.0% | 17.2–21.5% | 16.8–21.9% | 16.1–22.8% |
| Independent | 15.9% | 10.3% | 9.1–11.7% | 8.8–12.1% | 8.5–12.5% | 8.0–13.2% |
| Labour Party | 6.6% | 5.1% | 4.2–6.1% | 4.0–6.4% | 3.8–6.7% | 3.5–7.2% |
| Green Party/Comhaontas Glas | 2.7% | 3.0% | 2.4–3.9% | 2.2–4.1% | 2.1–4.3% | 1.8–4.8% |
| Independents 4 Change | 1.5% | 1.3% | 0.9–1.9% | 0.8–2.1% | 0.7–2.2% | 0.6–2.6% |
| Solidarity–People Before Profit | 3.9% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.7% | 0.5–1.8% | 0.4–2.1% |
| Social Democrats | 3.0% | 0.2% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.1–0.7% | 0.1–0.8% | 0.0–1.0% |
| Renua Ireland | 2.2% | 0.1% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.1–0.7% | 0.1–0.8% | 0.0–1.0% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fine Gael | 49 | 66 | 59–67 | 59–68 | 56–68 | 51–69 |
| Fianna Fáil | 44 | 47 | 41–50 | 41–51 | 40–52 | 39–56 |
| Sinn Féin | 23 | 36 | 35–41 | 34–41 | 33–41 | 32–43 |
| Independent | 19 | 6 | 5–9 | 4–10 | 4–11 | 3–15 |
| Labour Party | 7 | 3 | 2–5 | 1–7 | 0–8 | 0–8 |
| Green Party/Comhaontas Glas | 2 | 0 | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–3 |
| Independents 4 Change | 4 | 2 | 1–4 | 0–4 | 0–5 | 0–5 |
| Solidarity–People Before Profit | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Social Democrats | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Renua Ireland | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Fine Gael
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fine Gael page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 49 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 50 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 51 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 52 | 0.3% | 99.4% | |
| 53 | 0.2% | 99.2% | |
| 54 | 0.1% | 98.9% | |
| 55 | 0.5% | 98.9% | |
| 56 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 57 | 0.6% | 97% | |
| 58 | 1.5% | 97% | |
| 59 | 6% | 95% | |
| 60 | 9% | 89% | |
| 61 | 4% | 80% | |
| 62 | 3% | 76% | |
| 63 | 4% | 73% | |
| 64 | 2% | 69% | |
| 65 | 9% | 67% | |
| 66 | 42% | 58% | Median |
| 67 | 10% | 15% | |
| 68 | 5% | 6% | |
| 69 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 70 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 71 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% |
Fianna Fáil
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fianna Fáil page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 37 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 39 | 2% | 99.5% | |
| 40 | 2% | 98% | |
| 41 | 9% | 95% | |
| 42 | 9% | 86% | |
| 43 | 5% | 77% | |
| 44 | 7% | 72% | Last Result |
| 45 | 9% | 65% | |
| 46 | 4% | 55% | |
| 47 | 3% | 52% | Median |
| 48 | 2% | 49% | |
| 49 | 31% | 47% | |
| 50 | 8% | 16% | |
| 51 | 4% | 8% | |
| 52 | 2% | 4% | |
| 53 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 54 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 55 | 0.5% | 1.1% | |
| 56 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 58 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% |
Sinn Féin
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinn Féin page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 30 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 31 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 32 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 33 | 2% | 99.3% | |
| 34 | 6% | 97% | |
| 35 | 33% | 91% | |
| 36 | 10% | 58% | Median |
| 37 | 11% | 48% | |
| 38 | 14% | 37% | |
| 39 | 8% | 23% | |
| 40 | 4% | 15% | |
| 41 | 11% | 11% | |
| 42 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 43 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 44 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% |
Independent
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independent page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2% | 100% | |
| 4 | 4% | 98% | |
| 5 | 35% | 94% | |
| 6 | 23% | 58% | Median |
| 7 | 12% | 35% | |
| 8 | 8% | 23% | |
| 9 | 8% | 15% | |
| 10 | 3% | 7% | |
| 11 | 2% | 4% | |
| 12 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 13 | 0.6% | 1.5% | |
| 14 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 15 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 16 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Labour Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5% | 100% | |
| 1 | 3% | 95% | |
| 2 | 37% | 92% | |
| 3 | 34% | 55% | Median |
| 4 | 6% | 21% | |
| 5 | 8% | 15% | |
| 6 | 2% | 7% | |
| 7 | 3% | 6% | Last Result |
| 8 | 2% | 3% | |
| 9 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 12 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party/Comhaontas Glas page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 61% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 17% | 39% | |
| 2 | 7% | 22% | Last Result |
| 3 | 15% | 16% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Independents 4 Change
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents 4 Change page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7% | 100% | |
| 1 | 19% | 93% | |
| 2 | 30% | 74% | Median |
| 3 | 10% | 45% | |
| 4 | 30% | 35% | Last Result |
| 5 | 5% | 5% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Solidarity–People Before Profit
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Solidarity–People Before Profit page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 95% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 4% | 5% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Social Democrats
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Social Democrats page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 97% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 3% | 3% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Renua Ireland
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Renua Ireland page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fine Gael – Fianna Fáil | 93 | 110 | 100% | 106–115 | 105–115 | 103–115 | 99–117 |
| Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin | 67 | 83 | 76% | 78–88 | 77–91 | 77–91 | 75–92 |
| Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas | 58 | 69 | 0% | 63–71 | 62–73 | 61–73 | 56–75 |
| Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats | 61 | 69 | 0% | 63–71 | 62–73 | 61–73 | 56–75 |
| Fine Gael – Labour Party | 56 | 68 | 0% | 62–70 | 61–71 | 60–72 | 54–74 |
| Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas | 51 | 66 | 0% | 60–68 | 60–69 | 58–71 | 53–72 |
| Fine Gael | 49 | 66 | 0% | 59–67 | 59–68 | 56–68 | 51–69 |
| Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas | 53 | 52 | 0% | 45–54 | 44–57 | 43–58 | 42–60 |
| Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats | 56 | 52 | 0% | 45–54 | 44–57 | 43–58 | 42–60 |
| Fianna Fáil – Labour Party | 51 | 51 | 0% | 44–54 | 43–55 | 42–57 | 41–58 |
| Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas | 46 | 49 | 0% | 42–51 | 41–53 | 41–54 | 40–57 |
Fine Gael – Fianna Fáil
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 93 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 94 | 0% | 100% | |
| 95 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 96 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 97 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 98 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 99 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 100 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 101 | 0.3% | 99.4% | |
| 102 | 0.8% | 99.1% | |
| 103 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 104 | 0.4% | 97% | |
| 105 | 4% | 97% | |
| 106 | 6% | 93% | |
| 107 | 6% | 87% | |
| 108 | 3% | 81% | |
| 109 | 20% | 77% | |
| 110 | 14% | 57% | |
| 111 | 12% | 44% | |
| 112 | 2% | 32% | |
| 113 | 1.3% | 29% | Median |
| 114 | 1.2% | 28% | |
| 115 | 25% | 27% | |
| 116 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 117 | 2% | 2% | |
| 118 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 119 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 120 | 0% | 0% |
Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 67 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 68 | 0% | 100% | |
| 69 | 0% | 100% | |
| 70 | 0% | 100% | |
| 71 | 0% | 100% | |
| 72 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 73 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 74 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 75 | 0.7% | 99.8% | |
| 76 | 1.0% | 99.1% | |
| 77 | 5% | 98% | |
| 78 | 6% | 94% | |
| 79 | 9% | 88% | |
| 80 | 3% | 78% | |
| 81 | 7% | 76% | Majority |
| 82 | 4% | 69% | |
| 83 | 15% | 65% | Median |
| 84 | 27% | 50% | |
| 85 | 3% | 23% | |
| 86 | 2% | 20% | |
| 87 | 5% | 18% | |
| 88 | 6% | 13% | |
| 89 | 0.4% | 7% | |
| 90 | 2% | 7% | |
| 91 | 4% | 5% | |
| 92 | 0.7% | 1.1% | |
| 93 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 94 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 96 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 97 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 98 | 0% | 0% |
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 54 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 56 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 57 | 0.2% | 99.4% | |
| 58 | 0.3% | 99.2% | Last Result |
| 59 | 0.1% | 98.9% | |
| 60 | 0.7% | 98.8% | |
| 61 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 62 | 5% | 97% | |
| 63 | 4% | 92% | |
| 64 | 3% | 88% | |
| 65 | 6% | 85% | |
| 66 | 3% | 78% | |
| 67 | 6% | 76% | |
| 68 | 13% | 70% | |
| 69 | 31% | 58% | Median |
| 70 | 16% | 26% | |
| 71 | 2% | 10% | |
| 72 | 3% | 8% | |
| 73 | 4% | 6% | |
| 74 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 75 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 76 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 77 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% |
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 54 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 56 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 57 | 0.2% | 99.4% | |
| 58 | 0.3% | 99.2% | |
| 59 | 0.1% | 98.9% | |
| 60 | 0.7% | 98.8% | |
| 61 | 0.8% | 98% | Last Result |
| 62 | 4% | 97% | |
| 63 | 5% | 93% | |
| 64 | 3% | 88% | |
| 65 | 6% | 85% | |
| 66 | 3% | 79% | |
| 67 | 5% | 76% | |
| 68 | 13% | 71% | |
| 69 | 31% | 58% | Median |
| 70 | 15% | 26% | |
| 71 | 3% | 11% | |
| 72 | 3% | 8% | |
| 73 | 4% | 6% | |
| 74 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 75 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 76 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 77 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% |
Fine Gael – Labour Party
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 53 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 55 | 0.4% | 99.5% | |
| 56 | 0.1% | 99.1% | Last Result |
| 57 | 0.1% | 99.0% | |
| 58 | 0.5% | 98.8% | |
| 59 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 60 | 1.3% | 98% | |
| 61 | 3% | 97% | |
| 62 | 5% | 94% | |
| 63 | 4% | 89% | |
| 64 | 5% | 85% | |
| 65 | 9% | 80% | |
| 66 | 2% | 72% | |
| 67 | 6% | 70% | |
| 68 | 19% | 64% | |
| 69 | 31% | 45% | Median |
| 70 | 10% | 15% | |
| 71 | 2% | 5% | |
| 72 | 2% | 3% | |
| 73 | 0.3% | 1.3% | |
| 74 | 0.8% | 1.0% | |
| 75 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 76 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 77 | 0% | 0% |
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 51 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 52 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 53 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 54 | 0.2% | 99.4% | |
| 55 | 0.4% | 99.2% | |
| 56 | 0.2% | 98.8% | |
| 57 | 1.0% | 98.6% | |
| 58 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 59 | 2% | 97% | |
| 60 | 9% | 95% | |
| 61 | 4% | 86% | |
| 62 | 6% | 82% | |
| 63 | 2% | 75% | |
| 64 | 4% | 74% | |
| 65 | 3% | 70% | |
| 66 | 39% | 67% | Median |
| 67 | 12% | 27% | |
| 68 | 7% | 15% | |
| 69 | 4% | 8% | |
| 70 | 0.9% | 4% | |
| 71 | 2% | 3% | |
| 72 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% |
Fine Gael
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 49 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 50 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 51 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 52 | 0.3% | 99.4% | |
| 53 | 0.2% | 99.2% | |
| 54 | 0.1% | 98.9% | |
| 55 | 0.5% | 98.9% | |
| 56 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 57 | 0.6% | 97% | |
| 58 | 1.5% | 97% | |
| 59 | 6% | 95% | |
| 60 | 9% | 89% | |
| 61 | 4% | 80% | |
| 62 | 3% | 76% | |
| 63 | 4% | 73% | |
| 64 | 2% | 69% | |
| 65 | 9% | 67% | |
| 66 | 42% | 58% | Median |
| 67 | 10% | 15% | |
| 68 | 5% | 6% | |
| 69 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 70 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 71 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% |
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 42 | 2% | 99.7% | |
| 43 | 3% | 98% | |
| 44 | 1.5% | 96% | |
| 45 | 10% | 94% | |
| 46 | 7% | 84% | |
| 47 | 13% | 77% | |
| 48 | 3% | 64% | |
| 49 | 3% | 61% | |
| 50 | 5% | 58% | Median |
| 51 | 2% | 53% | |
| 52 | 32% | 51% | |
| 53 | 1.3% | 19% | Last Result |
| 54 | 9% | 18% | |
| 55 | 0.8% | 9% | |
| 56 | 3% | 8% | |
| 57 | 1.3% | 5% | |
| 58 | 3% | 4% | |
| 59 | 0.7% | 1.3% | |
| 60 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 61 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 62 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% |
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 42 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 43 | 3% | 98% | |
| 44 | 1.4% | 96% | |
| 45 | 10% | 94% | |
| 46 | 7% | 84% | |
| 47 | 12% | 77% | |
| 48 | 3% | 65% | |
| 49 | 3% | 61% | |
| 50 | 6% | 59% | Median |
| 51 | 1.5% | 53% | |
| 52 | 32% | 52% | |
| 53 | 1.3% | 19% | |
| 54 | 8% | 18% | |
| 55 | 1.4% | 10% | |
| 56 | 3% | 8% | Last Result |
| 57 | 1.5% | 5% | |
| 58 | 3% | 4% | |
| 59 | 0.8% | 1.4% | |
| 60 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 61 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 62 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% |
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 39 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 41 | 1.4% | 99.7% | |
| 42 | 3% | 98% | |
| 43 | 5% | 96% | |
| 44 | 2% | 90% | |
| 45 | 13% | 89% | |
| 46 | 7% | 76% | |
| 47 | 10% | 68% | |
| 48 | 2% | 59% | |
| 49 | 4% | 57% | |
| 50 | 2% | 53% | Median |
| 51 | 5% | 51% | Last Result |
| 52 | 31% | 46% | |
| 53 | 3% | 15% | |
| 54 | 7% | 12% | |
| 55 | 1.1% | 5% | |
| 56 | 1.1% | 4% | |
| 57 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 58 | 2% | 2% | |
| 59 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 60 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% |
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 38 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 39 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 40 | 2% | 99.5% | |
| 41 | 3% | 98% | |
| 42 | 11% | 95% | |
| 43 | 4% | 83% | |
| 44 | 6% | 79% | |
| 45 | 14% | 73% | |
| 46 | 3% | 60% | Last Result |
| 47 | 1.1% | 57% | Median |
| 48 | 3% | 56% | |
| 49 | 33% | 52% | |
| 50 | 10% | 20% | |
| 51 | 2% | 10% | |
| 52 | 2% | 8% | |
| 53 | 0.9% | 6% | |
| 54 | 3% | 5% | |
| 55 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 56 | 0.5% | 1.3% | |
| 57 | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Behaviour and Attitudes
- Commissioner(s): The Sunday Times
- Fieldwork period: 28 February–12 March 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 929
- Simulations done: 1,048,575
- Error estimate: 2.65%