Opinion Poll by Red C for The Sunday Business Post, 21–28 March 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael 25.5% 30.9% 29.1–32.8% 28.5–33.4% 28.1–33.8% 27.3–34.8%
Fianna Fáil 24.3% 24.9% 23.2–26.7% 22.7–27.2% 22.3–27.7% 21.5–28.6%
Sinn Féin 13.8% 13.0% 11.7–14.5% 11.4–14.9% 11.1–15.2% 10.5–16.0%
Independent 15.9% 12.6% 11.3–14.0% 11.0–14.4% 10.7–14.8% 10.1–15.5%
Labour Party 6.6% 5.0% 4.2–6.0% 4.0–6.3% 3.8–6.5% 3.5–7.1%
Social Democrats 3.0% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.1% 2.1–4.3% 1.9–4.7%
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2.7% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.1% 2.1–4.3% 1.9–4.7%
Solidarity–People Before Profit 3.9% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.1% 1.1–3.4%
Independents 4 Change 1.5% 1.6% 1.2–2.2% 1.1–2.4% 1.0–2.6% 0.8–2.9%
Renua Ireland 2.2% 0.1% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7% 0.0–0.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael 49 64 58–68 56–70 55–71 53–71
Fianna Fáil 44 47 42–51 41–53 40–55 39–55
Sinn Féin 23 23 18–28 18–29 18–30 17–32
Independent 19 14 10–16 9–16 8–16 7–16
Labour Party 7 3 2–6 1–7 0–8 0–10
Social Democrats 3 3 3–4 3–4 3–5 3–6
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2 1 1–2 1–3 0–3 0–4
Solidarity–People Before Profit 6 1 0–3 0–3 0–4 0–4
Independents 4 Change 4 4 2–5 2–5 2–5 1–5
Renua Ireland 0 0 0 0 0 0

Fine Gael

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fine Gael page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100% Last Result
50 0.1% 99.9%  
51 0.1% 99.9%  
52 0.1% 99.8%  
53 0.7% 99.7%  
54 0.9% 99.0%  
55 2% 98%  
56 2% 96%  
57 4% 94%  
58 6% 90%  
59 3% 84%  
60 8% 81%  
61 7% 73%  
62 2% 66%  
63 13% 64%  
64 3% 52% Median
65 6% 49%  
66 17% 43%  
67 9% 25%  
68 7% 16%  
69 2% 9%  
70 5% 7%  
71 3% 3%  
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fianna Fáil page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0% 100%  
38 0.3% 99.9%  
39 2% 99.6%  
40 2% 98%  
41 5% 96%  
42 6% 91%  
43 3% 85%  
44 9% 82% Last Result
45 12% 74%  
46 7% 62%  
47 7% 55% Median
48 5% 49%  
49 12% 44%  
50 17% 32%  
51 7% 14%  
52 0.9% 7%  
53 2% 6%  
54 2% 4%  
55 2% 3%  
56 0.2% 0.3%  
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

Sinn Féin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinn Féin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.1% 100%  
16 0.2% 99.9%  
17 2% 99.7%  
18 11% 98%  
19 2% 87%  
20 12% 84%  
21 7% 72%  
22 10% 65%  
23 13% 55% Last Result, Median
24 17% 42%  
25 6% 26%  
26 6% 19%  
27 2% 14%  
28 5% 12%  
29 2% 6%  
30 2% 4%  
31 1.1% 2%  
32 0.5% 0.9%  
33 0.3% 0.4%  
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  

Independent

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independent page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.3% 100%  
7 1.2% 99.7%  
8 2% 98.5%  
9 6% 96%  
10 11% 91%  
11 7% 80%  
12 7% 73%  
13 8% 67%  
14 27% 59% Median
15 12% 32%  
16 20% 20%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 3% 100%  
1 5% 97%  
2 34% 92%  
3 22% 58% Median
4 10% 36%  
5 8% 26%  
6 13% 19%  
7 3% 6% Last Result
8 2% 3%  
9 0.7% 1.3%  
10 0.5% 0.6%  
11 0.1% 0.2%  
12 0% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Social Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Social Democrats page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 51% 100% Last Result, Median
4 46% 49%  
5 2% 3%  
6 0.5% 0.6%  
7 0% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party/Comhaontas Glas page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 5% 100%  
1 77% 95% Median
2 13% 18% Last Result
3 5% 5%  
4 0.6% 0.8%  
5 0.2% 0.2%  
6 0% 0%  

Solidarity–People Before Profit

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Solidarity–People Before Profit page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 21% 100%  
1 33% 79% Median
2 31% 45%  
3 10% 14%  
4 4% 4%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0% Last Result

Independents 4 Change

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents 4 Change page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.4% 100%  
1 2% 99.6%  
2 11% 98%  
3 15% 87%  
4 34% 72% Last Result, Median
5 37% 37%  
6 0% 0%  

Renua Ireland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Renua Ireland page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael – Fianna Fáil 93 111 100% 104–117 102–117 101–118 98–120
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats 61 72 3% 66–78 65–79 64–81 59–83
Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin 67 70 0.6% 65–75 63–76 62–77 61–81
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 58 68 0.3% 63–74 61–75 61–77 56–79
Fine Gael – Labour Party 56 67 0.3% 61–73 59–74 58–76 56–78
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 51 65 0% 59–69 58–71 56–72 54–73
Fine Gael 49 64 0% 58–68 56–70 55–71 53–71
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats 56 56 0% 50–60 49–61 48–63 45–64
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 53 52 0% 46–57 45–57 45–59 41–60
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party 51 51 0% 45–55 44–56 43–58 40–59
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 46 49 0% 43–52 42–55 41–56 40–57

Fine Gael – Fianna Fáil

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
93 0% 100% Last Result
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0.3% 99.9%  
98 0.1% 99.6%  
99 0.3% 99.5%  
100 2% 99.2%  
101 2% 98%  
102 2% 96%  
103 0.8% 94%  
104 4% 93%  
105 3% 89%  
106 3% 86%  
107 7% 83%  
108 8% 76%  
109 9% 68%  
110 6% 60%  
111 11% 54% Median
112 4% 42%  
113 14% 38%  
114 6% 25%  
115 5% 19%  
116 3% 14%  
117 6% 10%  
118 2% 5%  
119 0.5% 2%  
120 1.3% 2%  
121 0.2% 0.4%  
122 0.1% 0.2%  
123 0% 0.1%  
124 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100%  
58 0.1% 99.9%  
59 0.5% 99.9%  
60 0.2% 99.4%  
61 0.2% 99.2% Last Result
62 0.7% 99.0%  
63 0.5% 98%  
64 1.1% 98%  
65 6% 97%  
66 10% 91%  
67 3% 81%  
68 6% 78%  
69 4% 72%  
70 8% 68%  
71 6% 60% Median
72 12% 55%  
73 12% 43%  
74 5% 31%  
75 7% 26%  
76 3% 19%  
77 3% 15%  
78 6% 12%  
79 2% 6%  
80 1.2% 4%  
81 0.9% 3% Majority
82 0.3% 2%  
83 1.5% 2%  
84 0% 0.4%  
85 0% 0.3%  
86 0.3% 0.3%  
87 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.3% 100%  
59 0% 99.7%  
60 0% 99.6%  
61 0.7% 99.6%  
62 2% 98.9%  
63 2% 97%  
64 1.4% 95%  
65 4% 93%  
66 4% 89%  
67 7% 85% Last Result
68 17% 78%  
69 10% 61%  
70 10% 51% Median
71 5% 41%  
72 13% 36%  
73 4% 23%  
74 9% 19%  
75 6% 11%  
76 2% 5%  
77 1.2% 3%  
78 0.6% 2%  
79 0.5% 1.3%  
80 0.3% 0.9%  
81 0.2% 0.6% Majority
82 0.4% 0.4%  
83 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0% 100%  
55 0.1% 99.9%  
56 0.5% 99.8%  
57 0.3% 99.3%  
58 0.2% 99.0% Last Result
59 0.7% 98.8%  
60 0.6% 98%  
61 6% 98%  
62 0.9% 91%  
63 10% 90%  
64 5% 80%  
65 5% 75%  
66 3% 70%  
67 11% 66%  
68 6% 56% Median
69 17% 50%  
70 6% 33%  
71 3% 27%  
72 8% 24%  
73 1.3% 16%  
74 6% 14%  
75 4% 8%  
76 1.5% 5%  
77 1.1% 3%  
78 0.3% 2%  
79 1.4% 2%  
80 0.1% 0.4%  
81 0% 0.3% Majority
82 0.3% 0.3%  
83 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 99.9%  
54 0.1% 99.9%  
55 0.2% 99.8%  
56 0.8% 99.6% Last Result
57 0.2% 98.8%  
58 1.1% 98.6%  
59 3% 97%  
60 4% 94%  
61 4% 90%  
62 7% 86%  
63 5% 79%  
64 5% 74%  
65 4% 69%  
66 11% 65%  
67 6% 54% Median
68 16% 48%  
69 7% 33%  
70 2% 26%  
71 6% 23%  
72 4% 17%  
73 6% 13%  
74 3% 7%  
75 1.1% 4%  
76 1.0% 3%  
77 0.2% 2%  
78 1.4% 2%  
79 0.1% 0.5%  
80 0% 0.3%  
81 0.3% 0.3% Majority
82 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100% Last Result
52 0% 99.9%  
53 0.3% 99.9%  
54 0.4% 99.6%  
55 0.8% 99.2%  
56 2% 98%  
57 0.6% 96%  
58 2% 95%  
59 5% 93%  
60 6% 88%  
61 7% 82%  
62 8% 75%  
63 2% 67%  
64 13% 66%  
65 3% 52% Median
66 8% 49%  
67 15% 41%  
68 9% 26%  
69 8% 17%  
70 2% 10%  
71 4% 8%  
72 3% 3%  
73 0.4% 0.5%  
74 0.1% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  

Fine Gael

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100% Last Result
50 0.1% 99.9%  
51 0.1% 99.9%  
52 0.1% 99.8%  
53 0.7% 99.7%  
54 0.9% 99.0%  
55 2% 98%  
56 2% 96%  
57 4% 94%  
58 6% 90%  
59 3% 84%  
60 8% 81%  
61 7% 73%  
62 2% 66%  
63 13% 64%  
64 3% 52% Median
65 6% 49%  
66 17% 43%  
67 9% 25%  
68 7% 16%  
69 2% 9%  
70 5% 7%  
71 3% 3%  
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.2% 100%  
45 0.5% 99.8%  
46 0.7% 99.3%  
47 0.4% 98.6%  
48 3% 98%  
49 5% 95%  
50 8% 90%  
51 4% 83%  
52 10% 79%  
53 2% 68%  
54 3% 66% Median
55 11% 63%  
56 8% 53% Last Result
57 19% 45%  
58 3% 25%  
59 10% 22%  
60 5% 12%  
61 3% 7%  
62 1.2% 4%  
63 2% 3%  
64 0.3% 0.7%  
65 0.2% 0.4%  
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.2% 100%  
41 0.4% 99.8%  
42 0.5% 99.3%  
43 0.6% 98.9%  
44 0.7% 98%  
45 6% 98%  
46 4% 91%  
47 8% 87%  
48 7% 79%  
49 4% 72%  
50 2% 67%  
51 5% 65% Median
52 12% 60%  
53 10% 48% Last Result
54 15% 38%  
55 9% 23%  
56 3% 14%  
57 6% 11%  
58 2% 5%  
59 1.2% 3%  
60 2% 2%  
61 0.2% 0.4%  
62 0.1% 0.2%  
63 0% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.2% 100%  
40 0.6% 99.7%  
41 0.2% 99.1%  
42 1.1% 98.9%  
43 0.9% 98%  
44 6% 97%  
45 4% 91%  
46 9% 87%  
47 8% 79%  
48 4% 71%  
49 5% 67%  
50 2% 62% Median
51 12% 60% Last Result
52 14% 47%  
53 12% 34%  
54 9% 21%  
55 3% 12%  
56 4% 9%  
57 2% 4%  
58 0.6% 3%  
59 2% 2%  
60 0.1% 0.2%  
61 0.1% 0.1%  
62 0% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.4% 100%  
40 1.0% 99.6%  
41 2% 98.6%  
42 5% 97%  
43 6% 92%  
44 2% 85%  
45 10% 83%  
46 11% 73% Last Result
47 6% 63%  
48 5% 57% Median
49 6% 51%  
50 10% 45%  
51 19% 35%  
52 8% 17%  
53 0.9% 8%  
54 2% 7%  
55 2% 5%  
56 2% 3%  
57 0.8% 1.0%  
58 0.2% 0.2%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations