Opinion Poll by Behaviour and Attitudes for The Sunday Times, 4–16 April 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fianna Fáil 24.3% 29.3% 27.4–31.2% 26.9–31.8% 26.4–32.3% 25.6–33.2%
Fine Gael 25.5% 28.2% 26.4–30.1% 25.8–30.7% 25.4–31.2% 24.5–32.1%
Sinn Féin 13.8% 21.1% 19.5–22.9% 19.0–23.4% 18.6–23.9% 17.8–24.7%
Independent 15.9% 8.5% 7.4–9.8% 7.1–10.1% 6.8–10.4% 6.4–11.1%
Labour Party 6.6% 4.1% 3.4–5.0% 3.1–5.3% 3.0–5.5% 2.7–6.0%
Independents 4 Change 1.5% 1.1% 0.7–1.6% 0.7–1.8% 0.6–2.0% 0.5–2.3%
Solidarity–People Before Profit 3.9% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.8% 0.4–2.1%
Social Democrats 3.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.8% 0.4–2.1%
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2.7% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.8% 0.4–2.1%
Renua Ireland 2.2% 0.1% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7% 0.1–0.8% 0.0–1.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fianna Fáil 44 55 53–58 51–59 51–60 47–61
Fine Gael 49 56 52–60 52–61 50–61 48–64
Sinn Féin 23 40 37–43 37–43 36–43 36–44
Independent 19 4 4–6 4–6 3–6 3–7
Labour Party 7 0 0–2 0–2 0–3 0–8
Independents 4 Change 4 1 0–4 0–4 0–4 0–5
Solidarity–People Before Profit 6 0 0 0 0 0
Social Democrats 3 1 1–2 0–3 0–3 0–4
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2 0 0 0 0 0
Renua Ireland 0 0 0 0 0 0

Fianna Fáil

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fianna Fáil page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.3% 100%  
43 0% 99.7%  
44 0.1% 99.7% Last Result
45 0% 99.6%  
46 0% 99.6%  
47 0.1% 99.5%  
48 0.3% 99.4%  
49 0.2% 99.2%  
50 1.1% 99.0%  
51 3% 98%  
52 2% 95%  
53 3% 93%  
54 4% 90%  
55 63% 86% Median
56 10% 23%  
57 0.7% 13%  
58 2% 12%  
59 6% 10%  
60 3% 4%  
61 0.6% 0.6%  
62 0% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Fine Gael

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fine Gael page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 2% 99.8%  
49 0.1% 98% Last Result
50 1.1% 98%  
51 2% 97%  
52 9% 95%  
53 1.4% 86%  
54 2% 85%  
55 0.9% 83%  
56 34% 83% Median
57 5% 49%  
58 4% 43%  
59 2% 40%  
60 30% 38%  
61 6% 8%  
62 1.3% 2%  
63 0.1% 0.7%  
64 0.2% 0.6%  
65 0% 0.4%  
66 0% 0.3%  
67 0.3% 0.3%  
68 0% 0%  

Sinn Féin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinn Féin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0% 99.9%  
35 0% 99.9%  
36 4% 99.9%  
37 36% 96%  
38 5% 60%  
39 3% 55%  
40 4% 52% Median
41 3% 49%  
42 9% 46%  
43 35% 36%  
44 0.7% 1.1%  
45 0.4% 0.4%  
46 0% 0%  

Independent

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independent page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 3% 100%  
4 79% 97% Median
5 4% 18%  
6 13% 14%  
7 0.2% 0.7%  
8 0.2% 0.5%  
9 0.2% 0.3%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 52% 100% Median
1 2% 48%  
2 41% 45%  
3 3% 5%  
4 0.4% 2%  
5 0.1% 2%  
6 0.3% 2%  
7 0.2% 1.3% Last Result
8 1.1% 1.1%  
9 0% 0%  

Independents 4 Change

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents 4 Change page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 10% 100%  
1 71% 90% Median
2 5% 19%  
3 3% 14%  
4 10% 11% Last Result
5 0.8% 0.8%  
6 0% 0%  

Solidarity–People Before Profit

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Solidarity–People Before Profit page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.8% 100% Median
1 0.2% 0.2%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0% Last Result

Social Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Social Democrats page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 8% 100%  
1 81% 92% Median
2 6% 11%  
3 4% 5% Last Result
4 0.9% 0.9%  
5 0% 0%  

Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party/Comhaontas Glas page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0% Last Result

Renua Ireland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Renua Ireland page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fianna Fáil – Fine Gael 93 111 100% 108–115 108–116 108–117 105–118
Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin 67 96 100% 92–98 91–99 90–101 87–102
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats 56 58 0% 56–60 54–61 53–64 50–64
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats 61 58 0% 55–63 54–63 52–64 50–67
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 53 56 0% 54–59 53–60 52–62 48–64
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party 51 56 0% 54–59 53–60 52–62 48–64
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 58 56 0% 54–62 53–62 51–62 49–66
Fine Gael – Labour Party 56 56 0% 54–62 53–62 51–62 49–66
Fine Gael 49 56 0% 52–60 52–61 50–61 48–64
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 51 56 0% 52–60 52–61 50–61 48–64
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 46 55 0% 53–58 51–59 51–60 47–61

Fianna Fáil – Fine Gael

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
93 0% 100% Last Result
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0.1% 99.9%  
104 0.2% 99.9%  
105 0.3% 99.7%  
106 0.6% 99.3%  
107 0.7% 98.7%  
108 8% 98%  
109 5% 90%  
110 3% 85%  
111 40% 81% Median
112 1.2% 42%  
113 0.5% 40%  
114 1.1% 40%  
115 31% 39%  
116 4% 8%  
117 3% 5%  
118 1.2% 1.3%  
119 0.1% 0.1%  
120 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100% Majority
82 0% 100%  
83 0.3% 100%  
84 0.2% 99.7%  
85 0% 99.6%  
86 0% 99.6%  
87 0.1% 99.5%  
88 1.0% 99.4%  
89 0.8% 98%  
90 2% 98%  
91 5% 96%  
92 31% 91%  
93 4% 61%  
94 1.4% 57%  
95 3% 55% Median
96 3% 52%  
97 3% 49%  
98 41% 46%  
99 1.2% 5%  
100 1.4% 4%  
101 2% 3%  
102 0.7% 0.9%  
103 0.1% 0.2%  
104 0.1% 0.1%  
105 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.3% 100%  
44 0% 99.7%  
45 0% 99.7%  
46 0.2% 99.7%  
47 0% 99.6%  
48 0% 99.6%  
49 0% 99.5%  
50 0.3% 99.5%  
51 0.2% 99.3%  
52 0.3% 99.1%  
53 3% 98.8%  
54 2% 96%  
55 3% 93%  
56 38% 91% Last Result, Median
57 3% 53%  
58 30% 50%  
59 8% 21%  
60 3% 12%  
61 5% 10%  
62 1.4% 5%  
63 0.5% 3%  
64 2% 3%  
65 0.1% 0.5%  
66 0.3% 0.3%  
67 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100%  
50 1.3% 99.9%  
51 0.2% 98.6%  
52 2% 98%  
53 0.4% 96%  
54 1.4% 96%  
55 6% 94%  
56 2% 88%  
57 36% 87% Median
58 4% 51%  
59 2% 46%  
60 0.3% 44%  
61 7% 44% Last Result
62 4% 37%  
63 29% 33%  
64 1.0% 4%  
65 0.1% 2%  
66 2% 2%  
67 0.1% 0.5%  
68 0.4% 0.4%  
69 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.3% 100%  
43 0% 99.7%  
44 0% 99.7%  
45 0% 99.7%  
46 0.1% 99.7%  
47 0% 99.6%  
48 0.2% 99.6%  
49 0.1% 99.4%  
50 0.2% 99.2%  
51 1.2% 99.0%  
52 2% 98%  
53 4% 96% Last Result
54 3% 92%  
55 36% 89% Median
56 4% 53%  
57 28% 49%  
58 8% 21%  
59 4% 12%  
60 4% 9%  
61 2% 5%  
62 2% 3%  
63 0.1% 0.8%  
64 0.4% 0.6%  
65 0.2% 0.3%  
66 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.3% 100%  
43 0% 99.7%  
44 0% 99.7%  
45 0% 99.7%  
46 0.1% 99.7%  
47 0% 99.6%  
48 0.2% 99.6%  
49 0.1% 99.4%  
50 0.2% 99.2%  
51 1.2% 99.0% Last Result
52 2% 98%  
53 4% 96%  
54 3% 92%  
55 36% 89% Median
56 4% 53%  
57 28% 49%  
58 8% 21%  
59 4% 12%  
60 4% 9%  
61 2% 5%  
62 2% 3%  
63 0.1% 0.8%  
64 0.4% 0.6%  
65 0.2% 0.3%  
66 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0% 100%  
49 1.3% 99.9%  
50 0.4% 98.7%  
51 2% 98%  
52 1.1% 96%  
53 1.0% 95%  
54 7% 94%  
55 3% 87%  
56 35% 84% Median
57 3% 50%  
58 2% 47% Last Result
59 3% 45%  
60 4% 42%  
61 6% 38%  
62 29% 31%  
63 0.2% 2%  
64 0.1% 2%  
65 1.0% 2%  
66 0.2% 0.6%  
67 0.4% 0.4%  
68 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0% 100%  
49 1.3% 99.9%  
50 0.4% 98.7%  
51 2% 98%  
52 1.1% 96%  
53 1.0% 95%  
54 7% 94%  
55 3% 87%  
56 35% 84% Last Result, Median
57 3% 50%  
58 2% 47%  
59 3% 45%  
60 4% 42%  
61 6% 38%  
62 29% 31%  
63 0.2% 2%  
64 0.1% 2%  
65 1.0% 2%  
66 0.2% 0.6%  
67 0.4% 0.4%  
68 0% 0%  

Fine Gael

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 2% 99.8%  
49 0.1% 98% Last Result
50 1.1% 98%  
51 2% 97%  
52 9% 95%  
53 1.4% 86%  
54 2% 85%  
55 0.9% 83%  
56 34% 83% Median
57 5% 49%  
58 4% 43%  
59 2% 40%  
60 30% 38%  
61 6% 8%  
62 1.3% 2%  
63 0.1% 0.7%  
64 0.2% 0.6%  
65 0% 0.4%  
66 0% 0.3%  
67 0.3% 0.3%  
68 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 2% 99.8%  
49 0.1% 98%  
50 1.1% 98%  
51 2% 97% Last Result
52 9% 95%  
53 1.4% 86%  
54 2% 85%  
55 0.9% 83%  
56 34% 83% Median
57 5% 49%  
58 4% 43%  
59 2% 40%  
60 30% 38%  
61 6% 8%  
62 1.3% 2%  
63 0.1% 0.7%  
64 0.2% 0.6%  
65 0% 0.4%  
66 0% 0.3%  
67 0.3% 0.3%  
68 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.3% 100%  
43 0% 99.7%  
44 0.1% 99.7%  
45 0% 99.6%  
46 0% 99.6% Last Result
47 0.1% 99.5%  
48 0.3% 99.4%  
49 0.2% 99.2%  
50 1.1% 99.0%  
51 3% 98%  
52 2% 95%  
53 3% 93%  
54 4% 90%  
55 63% 86% Median
56 10% 23%  
57 0.7% 13%  
58 2% 12%  
59 6% 10%  
60 3% 4%  
61 0.6% 0.6%  
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations