Opinion Poll by Red C for The Sunday Business Post, 11–17 April 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael 25.5% 32.9% 31.0–34.9% 30.5–35.4% 30.1–35.9% 29.2–36.8%
Fianna Fáil 24.3% 22.9% 21.3–24.7% 20.8–25.2% 20.4–25.6% 19.6–26.5%
Independent 15.9% 14.3% 13.0–15.8% 12.6–16.2% 12.3–16.6% 11.6–17.4%
Sinn Féin 13.8% 14.0% 12.7–15.5% 12.3–15.9% 12.0–16.3% 11.4–17.0%
Labour Party 6.6% 5.0% 4.2–6.0% 4.0–6.3% 3.8–6.5% 3.5–7.1%
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2.7% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.1% 2.1–4.3% 1.9–4.7%
Social Democrats 3.0% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.1% 1.1–3.4%
Independents 4 Change 1.5% 1.8% 1.4–2.5% 1.2–2.7% 1.1–2.8% 1.0–3.2%
Solidarity–People Before Profit 3.9% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.8% 0.4–2.1%
Renua Ireland 2.2% 0.1% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7% 0.0–0.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael 49 64 61–68 60–69 58–70 57–71
Fianna Fáil 44 40 37–44 34–45 34–46 31–49
Independent 19 17 16–18 16–19 15–20 14–21
Sinn Féin 23 28 21–32 20–34 20–34 18–35
Labour Party 7 5 2–9 0–10 0–12 0–15
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2 2 1–3 0–3 0–3 0–4
Social Democrats 3 3 3 1–3 1–3 1–5
Independents 4 Change 4 3 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Solidarity–People Before Profit 6 0 0 0 0–1 0–2
Renua Ireland 0 0 0 0 0 0–1

Fine Gael

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fine Gael page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100% Last Result
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 100%  
54 0% 99.9%  
55 0.2% 99.9%  
56 0.1% 99.7%  
57 0.6% 99.6%  
58 2% 99.0%  
59 2% 97%  
60 4% 96%  
61 18% 92%  
62 15% 74%  
63 9% 60%  
64 9% 50% Median
65 10% 41%  
66 13% 31%  
67 6% 19%  
68 3% 13%  
69 7% 9%  
70 2% 3%  
71 0.6% 1.1%  
72 0.4% 0.4%  
73 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fianna Fáil page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 99.9%  
30 0.1% 99.9%  
31 0.4% 99.8%  
32 0.4% 99.4%  
33 0.9% 99.0%  
34 3% 98%  
35 3% 95%  
36 1.4% 92%  
37 8% 90%  
38 4% 82%  
39 14% 78%  
40 36% 63% Median
41 5% 27%  
42 5% 22%  
43 5% 18%  
44 3% 13% Last Result
45 6% 10%  
46 1.1% 3%  
47 0.6% 2%  
48 0.8% 2%  
49 0.6% 0.9%  
50 0.1% 0.4%  
51 0.2% 0.2%  
52 0% 0%  

Independent

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independent page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.1% 100%  
11 0.1% 99.9%  
12 0.1% 99.9%  
13 0.2% 99.8%  
14 0.4% 99.6%  
15 2% 99.2%  
16 27% 97%  
17 60% 70% Median
18 5% 10%  
19 3% 5% Last Result
20 2% 3%  
21 0.5% 0.6%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Sinn Féin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinn Féin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.1% 100%  
18 0.8% 99.9%  
19 0.9% 99.1%  
20 4% 98%  
21 8% 95%  
22 3% 86%  
23 2% 83% Last Result
24 10% 81%  
25 6% 71%  
26 8% 65%  
27 4% 56%  
28 20% 52% Median
29 5% 33%  
30 12% 28%  
31 4% 16%  
32 5% 12%  
33 0.8% 7%  
34 4% 6%  
35 2% 2%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 6% 100%  
1 2% 94%  
2 7% 92%  
3 13% 85%  
4 11% 71%  
5 29% 60% Median
6 7% 31%  
7 8% 24% Last Result
8 5% 17%  
9 6% 12%  
10 1.3% 5%  
11 0.3% 4%  
12 2% 4%  
13 0.4% 2%  
14 0.6% 1.3%  
15 0.4% 0.7%  
16 0.2% 0.2%  
17 0% 0%  

Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party/Comhaontas Glas page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 8% 100%  
1 39% 92%  
2 22% 53% Last Result, Median
3 30% 31%  
4 0.7% 0.8%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Social Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Social Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100%  
1 7% 99.8%  
2 1.4% 93%  
3 90% 91% Last Result, Median
4 0.5% 1.1%  
5 0.5% 0.6%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Independents 4 Change

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents 4 Change page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100%  
2 24% 99.9%  
3 76% 76% Median
4 0% 0% Last Result

Solidarity–People Before Profit

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Solidarity–People Before Profit page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 95% 100% Median
1 4% 5%  
2 0.5% 0.7%  
3 0.2% 0.2%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0% Last Result

Renua Ireland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Renua Ireland page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.4% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.6% 0.6%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael – Fianna Fáil 93 103 100% 99–109 97–110 96–111 93–113
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats 61 73 3% 69–77 68–79 67–82 65–83
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 58 70 0.3% 67–74 66–76 64–79 62–80
Fine Gael – Labour Party 56 69 0.1% 65–73 64–75 62–78 60–79
Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin 67 67 0% 63–71 61–72 58–73 58–75
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 51 65 0% 63–70 61–71 60–71 58–73
Fine Gael 49 64 0% 61–68 60–69 58–70 57–71
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats 56 49 0% 45–55 43–57 42–58 40–60
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 53 46 0% 42–52 41–54 39–55 37–58
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party 51 45 0% 41–50 39–53 38–54 36–57
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 46 42 0% 38–46 36–47 35–48 32–50

Fine Gael – Fianna Fáil

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
91 0.1% 100%  
92 0.1% 99.8%  
93 0.5% 99.7% Last Result
94 0.6% 99.2%  
95 0.3% 98.6%  
96 0.9% 98%  
97 4% 97%  
98 2% 93%  
99 2% 92%  
100 3% 90%  
101 19% 87%  
102 14% 68%  
103 6% 54%  
104 7% 48% Median
105 9% 41%  
106 5% 32%  
107 5% 27%  
108 3% 22%  
109 11% 19%  
110 5% 8%  
111 2% 3%  
112 0.5% 1.0%  
113 0.3% 0.5%  
114 0.2% 0.2%  
115 0% 0.1%  
116 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100% Last Result
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 0.2% 100%  
65 1.1% 99.8%  
66 0.7% 98.7%  
67 0.8% 98%  
68 4% 97%  
69 5% 94%  
70 5% 89%  
71 13% 84%  
72 20% 72%  
73 7% 52%  
74 6% 45% Median
75 7% 40%  
76 11% 33%  
77 12% 22%  
78 4% 10%  
79 1.3% 5%  
80 0.7% 4%  
81 0.5% 3% Majority
82 2% 3%  
83 0.6% 0.9%  
84 0.2% 0.3%  
85 0.1% 0.1%  
86 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100% Last Result
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 100%  
61 0.2% 100%  
62 0.7% 99.8%  
63 0.8% 99.2%  
64 1.0% 98%  
65 2% 97%  
66 5% 95%  
67 5% 91%  
68 11% 85%  
69 20% 75%  
70 8% 54%  
71 6% 46% Median
72 8% 41%  
73 11% 33%  
74 13% 22%  
75 4% 10%  
76 1.4% 5%  
77 0.6% 4%  
78 0.5% 3%  
79 2% 3%  
80 0.7% 1.0%  
81 0.2% 0.3% Majority
82 0.1% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0% 100% Last Result
57 0% 100%  
58 0% 100%  
59 0.4% 100%  
60 0.2% 99.5%  
61 1.0% 99.3%  
62 0.8% 98%  
63 2% 97%  
64 2% 96%  
65 10% 94%  
66 20% 83%  
67 4% 64%  
68 6% 59%  
69 12% 53% Median
70 3% 40%  
71 11% 37%  
72 12% 26%  
73 5% 14%  
74 4% 9%  
75 1.3% 5%  
76 0.3% 4%  
77 0.5% 3%  
78 2% 3%  
79 0.6% 0.9%  
80 0.2% 0.3%  
81 0.1% 0.1% Majority
82 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.2% 99.9%  
57 0.2% 99.7%  
58 2% 99.5%  
59 0.5% 97%  
60 0.5% 97%  
61 2% 96%  
62 3% 94%  
63 4% 91%  
64 13% 87%  
65 11% 74%  
66 7% 62%  
67 6% 56% Last Result
68 19% 49% Median
69 6% 30%  
70 10% 24%  
71 7% 14%  
72 2% 7%  
73 2% 4%  
74 1.0% 2%  
75 0.8% 1.1%  
76 0.2% 0.2%  
77 0% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100% Last Result
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 100%  
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 100%  
56 0.1% 99.9%  
57 0.1% 99.8%  
58 0.3% 99.7%  
59 1.4% 99.4%  
60 2% 98%  
61 3% 96%  
62 3% 93%  
63 11% 90%  
64 22% 79%  
65 10% 58%  
66 15% 47% Median
67 6% 33%  
68 9% 27%  
69 7% 18%  
70 3% 11%  
71 6% 8%  
72 0.9% 2%  
73 0.5% 0.8%  
74 0.3% 0.3%  
75 0% 0%  

Fine Gael

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100% Last Result
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 100%  
54 0% 99.9%  
55 0.2% 99.9%  
56 0.1% 99.7%  
57 0.6% 99.6%  
58 2% 99.0%  
59 2% 97%  
60 4% 96%  
61 18% 92%  
62 15% 74%  
63 9% 60%  
64 9% 50% Median
65 10% 41%  
66 13% 31%  
67 6% 19%  
68 3% 13%  
69 7% 9%  
70 2% 3%  
71 0.6% 1.1%  
72 0.4% 0.4%  
73 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.1% 99.9%  
40 0.5% 99.8%  
41 0.5% 99.3%  
42 2% 98.8%  
43 4% 97%  
44 2% 93%  
45 3% 91%  
46 6% 88%  
47 9% 82%  
48 8% 73%  
49 16% 65%  
50 9% 49% Median
51 17% 39%  
52 3% 22%  
53 6% 19%  
54 0.9% 13%  
55 7% 12%  
56 0.5% 6% Last Result
57 2% 5%  
58 3% 4%  
59 0.5% 1.1%  
60 0.2% 0.6%  
61 0.4% 0.5%  
62 0% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.1% 99.9%  
37 0.4% 99.9%  
38 0.6% 99.5%  
39 2% 98.8%  
40 2% 97%  
41 2% 95%  
42 5% 93%  
43 6% 88%  
44 8% 82%  
45 8% 75%  
46 17% 66%  
47 9% 49% Median
48 17% 40%  
49 3% 23%  
50 7% 20%  
51 1.3% 14%  
52 6% 13%  
53 1.1% 6% Last Result
54 1.0% 5%  
55 3% 4%  
56 0.9% 2%  
57 0.1% 0.8%  
58 0.5% 0.7%  
59 0.1% 0.2%  
60 0% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.1% 99.9%  
36 0.4% 99.8%  
37 1.1% 99.4%  
38 2% 98%  
39 2% 96%  
40 4% 95%  
41 6% 91%  
42 5% 85%  
43 16% 80%  
44 11% 64%  
45 20% 53% Median
46 8% 33%  
47 4% 25%  
48 4% 21%  
49 2% 16%  
50 5% 14%  
51 3% 9% Last Result
52 1.1% 6%  
53 0.9% 5%  
54 3% 4%  
55 1.0% 2%  
56 0.1% 0.7%  
57 0.4% 0.6%  
58 0.2% 0.3%  
59 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 99.9%  
31 0.1% 99.9%  
32 0.3% 99.8%  
33 0.5% 99.5%  
34 0.8% 99.0%  
35 3% 98%  
36 3% 95%  
37 1.3% 93%  
38 9% 91%  
39 3% 82%  
40 10% 79%  
41 13% 69%  
42 9% 56% Median
43 26% 46%  
44 2% 20%  
45 6% 18%  
46 4% 12% Last Result
47 5% 7%  
48 0.8% 3%  
49 0.8% 2%  
50 0.7% 1.1%  
51 0.1% 0.4%  
52 0.3% 0.3%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations