Opinion Poll by Ipsos MRBI for The Irish Times, 6–8 May 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael 25.5% 28.9% 27.3–30.3% 26.9–30.8% 26.6–31.2% 25.9–31.9%
Fianna Fáil 24.3% 25.9% 24.4–27.3% 24.0–27.7% 23.6–28.1% 23.0–28.8%
Sinn Féin 13.8% 15.9% 14.7–17.1% 14.4–17.5% 14.1–17.8% 13.6–18.4%
Independent 15.9% 15.1% 13.9–16.3% 13.6–16.7% 13.3–17.0% 12.8–17.6%
Labour Party 6.6% 6.9% 6.2–7.8% 5.9–8.1% 5.7–8.3% 5.4–8.8%
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2.7% 4.0% 3.4–4.7% 3.2–4.9% 3.1–5.1% 2.9–5.5%
Independents 4 Change 1.5% 1.9% 1.5–2.4% 1.4–2.6% 1.3–2.7% 1.1–3.0%
Solidarity–People Before Profit 3.9% 0.3% 0.2–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7% 0.1–0.8%
Social Democrats 3.0% 0.3% 0.2–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7% 0.1–0.8%
Renua Ireland 2.2% 0.1% 0.2–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7% 0.1–0.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael 49 55 52–56 51–56 50–60 47–64
Fianna Fáil 44 45 44–48 44–51 42–51 41–54
Sinn Féin 23 29 27–31 26–31 26–32 23–34
Independent 19 16 16 16 15–16 12–16
Labour Party 7 10 5–12 5–12 5–12 3–12
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2 2 2–4 1–4 1–4 0–4
Independents 4 Change 4 4 4–5 4–5 3–5 3–5
Solidarity–People Before Profit 6 0 0 0 0 0
Social Democrats 3 0 0 0 0 0–1
Renua Ireland 0 0 0 0 0 0

Fine Gael

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fine Gael page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.5% 100%  
48 0.3% 99.5%  
49 1.3% 99.2% Last Result
50 2% 98%  
51 1.1% 96%  
52 7% 94%  
53 28% 88%  
54 0.7% 60%  
55 36% 59% Median
56 19% 23%  
57 0.8% 4%  
58 0.1% 4%  
59 0.1% 4%  
60 2% 3%  
61 0.2% 2%  
62 0% 2%  
63 0% 2%  
64 1.5% 2%  
65 0.1% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fianna Fáil page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0% 99.9%  
41 2% 99.9%  
42 2% 98%  
43 0.6% 96%  
44 21% 96% Last Result
45 48% 75% Median
46 11% 27%  
47 2% 16%  
48 5% 15%  
49 2% 10%  
50 1.2% 8%  
51 6% 7%  
52 0.4% 1.2%  
53 0.3% 0.8%  
54 0.4% 0.5%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

Sinn Féin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinn Féin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 1.0% 99.8% Last Result
24 0.5% 98.8%  
25 0.3% 98%  
26 5% 98%  
27 3% 93%  
28 30% 90%  
29 15% 59% Median
30 26% 44%  
31 15% 17%  
32 1.1% 3%  
33 0.7% 2%  
34 0.8% 0.9%  
35 0% 0.1%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Independent

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independent page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 1.5% 100%  
13 0.8% 98.5%  
14 0.1% 98%  
15 0.7% 98%  
16 97% 97% Median
17 0% 0.2%  
18 0% 0.2%  
19 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
20 0% 0%  

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.2% 100%  
3 0.9% 99.8%  
4 0.3% 98.8%  
5 17% 98.5%  
6 19% 82%  
7 4% 63% Last Result
8 0.9% 59%  
9 7% 58%  
10 31% 51% Median
11 4% 20%  
12 16% 16%  
13 0.1% 0.5%  
14 0% 0.4%  
15 0.1% 0.3%  
16 0% 0.3%  
17 0.2% 0.2%  
18 0% 0%  

Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party/Comhaontas Glas page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.0% 100%  
1 4% 99.0%  
2 66% 95% Last Result, Median
3 8% 29%  
4 21% 21%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Independents 4 Change

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents 4 Change page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.3% 100%  
2 0.1% 99.7%  
3 4% 99.6%  
4 68% 95% Last Result, Median
5 28% 28%  
6 0% 0%  

Solidarity–People Before Profit

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Solidarity–People Before Profit page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0% Last Result

Social Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Social Democrats page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.5% 100% Median
1 0.5% 0.5%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0% Last Result

Renua Ireland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Renua Ireland page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael – Fianna Fáil 93 100 100% 97–102 96–106 96–106 95–110
Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin 67 74 2% 73–77 73–78 72–79 68–82
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 58 67 0% 62–67 62–68 60–69 57–76
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats 61 67 0% 62–67 62–68 60–69 57–76
Fine Gael – Labour Party 56 65 0% 58–65 58–66 58–67 54–75
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 51 57 0% 55–58 54–58 52–62 50–65
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 53 57 0% 53–59 53–59 53–61 50–66
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats 56 57 0% 53–59 53–59 53–61 50–66
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party 51 55 0% 51–56 51–56 51–60 47–62
Fine Gael 49 55 0% 52–56 51–56 50–60 47–64
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 46 47 0% 46–52 46–54 44–54 42–56

Fine Gael – Fianna Fáil

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 99.9% Last Result
94 0.2% 99.9%  
95 0.3% 99.7%  
96 7% 99.3%  
97 15% 92%  
98 3% 78%  
99 11% 75%  
100 32% 64% Median
101 21% 32%  
102 1.3% 11%  
103 0.2% 9%  
104 0.4% 9%  
105 2% 9%  
106 5% 7%  
107 0.3% 2%  
108 0.1% 2%  
109 0.6% 2%  
110 1.0% 1.0%  
111 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.1% 100%  
66 0% 99.9%  
67 0% 99.9% Last Result
68 1.5% 99.9%  
69 0.1% 98%  
70 0.2% 98%  
71 0.3% 98%  
72 2% 98%  
73 45% 95%  
74 0.4% 50% Median
75 24% 50%  
76 5% 26%  
77 13% 21%  
78 5% 8%  
79 1.0% 3%  
80 0.4% 2%  
81 0.5% 2% Majority
82 1.0% 2%  
83 0.4% 0.5%  
84 0.1% 0.1%  
85 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0% 100%  
57 0.5% 99.9%  
58 0.6% 99.4% Last Result
59 0.2% 98.8%  
60 1.1% 98.5%  
61 1.2% 97%  
62 11% 96%  
63 7% 85%  
64 21% 79%  
65 7% 58%  
66 0.1% 50%  
67 45% 50% Median
68 1.2% 5%  
69 2% 4%  
70 0.1% 2%  
71 0% 2%  
72 0.1% 2%  
73 0% 2%  
74 0.1% 1.5%  
75 0% 1.4%  
76 1.4% 1.4%  
77 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0% 100%  
57 0.5% 99.9%  
58 0.6% 99.4%  
59 0.2% 98.8%  
60 1.1% 98.5%  
61 1.2% 97% Last Result
62 11% 96%  
63 6% 85%  
64 21% 79%  
65 7% 58%  
66 0.1% 50%  
67 45% 50% Median
68 1.2% 5%  
69 2% 4%  
70 0.1% 2%  
71 0% 2%  
72 0.1% 2%  
73 0% 2%  
74 0.1% 1.5%  
75 0% 1.4%  
76 1.4% 1.4%  
77 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0% 100%  
54 0.4% 99.9%  
55 0.3% 99.5%  
56 1.0% 99.2% Last Result
57 0.4% 98%  
58 11% 98%  
59 0.9% 87%  
60 9% 86%  
61 7% 77%  
62 19% 70%  
63 0.6% 51%  
64 0.2% 50%  
65 45% 50% Median
66 1.0% 5%  
67 2% 4%  
68 0.6% 2%  
69 0% 2%  
70 0% 2%  
71 0.1% 2%  
72 0% 1.4%  
73 0% 1.4%  
74 0% 1.4%  
75 1.4% 1.4%  
76 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.5% 100%  
50 0.1% 99.5%  
51 2% 99.4% Last Result
52 1.3% 98%  
53 1.0% 96%  
54 1.0% 95%  
55 15% 94%  
56 7% 79%  
57 44% 72% Median
58 24% 28%  
59 0.6% 4%  
60 0% 4%  
61 1.0% 4%  
62 0.1% 3%  
63 1.0% 2%  
64 0% 2%  
65 1.5% 2%  
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.2% 100%  
46 0% 99.8%  
47 0% 99.8%  
48 0% 99.8%  
49 0.1% 99.8%  
50 0.3% 99.7%  
51 0.1% 99.4%  
52 0.5% 99.4%  
53 19% 98.9% Last Result
54 1.0% 80%  
55 10% 79%  
56 0.5% 69%  
57 44% 69% Median
58 14% 24%  
59 6% 10%  
60 0.9% 5%  
61 1.2% 4%  
62 0.3% 2%  
63 1.0% 2%  
64 0.4% 1.2%  
65 0% 0.7%  
66 0.2% 0.7%  
67 0.4% 0.5%  
68 0% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.2% 100%  
46 0% 99.8%  
47 0% 99.8%  
48 0% 99.8%  
49 0.1% 99.8%  
50 0.3% 99.7%  
51 0.1% 99.4%  
52 0.5% 99.4%  
53 19% 98.9%  
54 1.1% 80%  
55 10% 79%  
56 0.5% 69% Last Result
57 44% 69% Median
58 14% 24%  
59 6% 10%  
60 0.9% 5%  
61 1.2% 4%  
62 0.3% 2%  
63 1.0% 2%  
64 0.5% 1.2%  
65 0% 0.7%  
66 0.2% 0.7%  
67 0.4% 0.5%  
68 0% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.2% 100%  
44 0% 99.8%  
45 0% 99.8%  
46 0% 99.8%  
47 0.3% 99.7%  
48 0% 99.5%  
49 0% 99.4%  
50 0.6% 99.4%  
51 25% 98.8% Last Result
52 3% 74%  
53 14% 72%  
54 1.4% 57%  
55 31% 56% Median
56 20% 25%  
57 0.5% 5%  
58 0.6% 4%  
59 0.2% 4%  
60 1.4% 3%  
61 1.0% 2%  
62 0.6% 1.1%  
63 0% 0.5%  
64 0.3% 0.5%  
65 0.1% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

Fine Gael

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.5% 100%  
48 0.3% 99.5%  
49 1.3% 99.2% Last Result
50 2% 98%  
51 1.1% 96%  
52 7% 94%  
53 28% 88%  
54 0.7% 60%  
55 36% 59% Median
56 19% 23%  
57 0.8% 4%  
58 0.1% 4%  
59 0.1% 4%  
60 2% 3%  
61 0.2% 2%  
62 0% 2%  
63 0% 2%  
64 1.5% 2%  
65 0.1% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 2% 100%  
43 0.6% 98%  
44 2% 98%  
45 0.3% 96%  
46 14% 96% Last Result
47 48% 81% Median
48 7% 34%  
49 2% 26%  
50 11% 25%  
51 3% 14%  
52 4% 11%  
53 0.6% 7%  
54 5% 6%  
55 0.4% 1.2%  
56 0.4% 0.8%  
57 0.4% 0.4%  
58 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations