Opinion Poll by Behaviour and Attitudes for The Sunday Times, 2–14 May 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fine Gael | 25.5% | 28.0% | 26.1–29.9% | 25.6–30.5% | 25.2–31.0% | 24.3–31.9% |
| Fianna Fáil | 24.3% | 28.0% | 26.1–29.9% | 25.6–30.5% | 25.2–31.0% | 24.3–31.9% |
| Sinn Féin | 13.8% | 19.0% | 17.4–20.7% | 17.0–21.2% | 16.6–21.6% | 15.9–22.5% |
| Independent | 15.9% | 7.6% | 6.6–8.8% | 6.3–9.2% | 6.1–9.5% | 5.6–10.1% |
| Green Party/Comhaontas Glas | 2.7% | 5.0% | 4.2–6.1% | 4.0–6.4% | 3.8–6.6% | 3.4–7.2% |
| Labour Party | 6.6% | 4.0% | 3.2–4.9% | 3.0–5.2% | 2.9–5.4% | 2.6–5.9% |
| Solidarity–People Before Profit | 3.9% | 3.0% | 2.4–3.9% | 2.2–4.1% | 2.1–4.3% | 1.8–4.8% |
| Social Democrats | 3.0% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.7% | 0.5–1.8% | 0.4–2.1% |
| Independents 4 Change | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.7% | 0.5–1.8% | 0.4–2.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fine Gael | 49 | 57 | 51–61 | 50–62 | 49–63 | 47–65 |
| Fianna Fáil | 44 | 53 | 50–58 | 48–58 | 47–59 | 46–59 |
| Sinn Féin | 23 | 35 | 34–37 | 32–37 | 32–37 | 30–38 |
| Independent | 19 | 4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–5 | 3–8 |
| Green Party/Comhaontas Glas | 2 | 4 | 2–6 | 2–6 | 2–6 | 2–8 |
| Labour Party | 7 | 1 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–6 | 0–7 |
| Solidarity–People Before Profit | 6 | 3 | 1–5 | 1–5 | 1–5 | 1–7 |
| Social Democrats | 3 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–2 | 0–3 | 0–3 |
| Independents 4 Change | 4 | 2 | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–3 |
Fine Gael
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fine Gael page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 44 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 45 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 46 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 47 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 48 | 0.7% | 99.2% | |
| 49 | 1.4% | 98% | Last Result |
| 50 | 4% | 97% | |
| 51 | 9% | 93% | |
| 52 | 8% | 84% | |
| 53 | 5% | 77% | |
| 54 | 5% | 71% | |
| 55 | 6% | 66% | |
| 56 | 10% | 60% | |
| 57 | 4% | 51% | Median |
| 58 | 21% | 47% | |
| 59 | 7% | 26% | |
| 60 | 7% | 19% | |
| 61 | 3% | 12% | |
| 62 | 6% | 9% | |
| 63 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 64 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 65 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 66 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% |
Fianna Fáil
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fianna Fáil page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 41 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 42 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 43 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 44 | 0.2% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 45 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 46 | 2% | 99.6% | |
| 47 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 48 | 4% | 97% | |
| 49 | 1.1% | 92% | |
| 50 | 6% | 91% | |
| 51 | 7% | 85% | |
| 52 | 16% | 78% | |
| 53 | 18% | 63% | Median |
| 54 | 2% | 45% | |
| 55 | 3% | 43% | |
| 56 | 15% | 40% | |
| 57 | 6% | 25% | |
| 58 | 15% | 18% | |
| 59 | 2% | 3% | |
| 60 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% |
Sinn Féin
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinn Féin page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 30 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 31 | 0.6% | 99.4% | |
| 32 | 8% | 98.8% | |
| 33 | 1.3% | 91% | |
| 34 | 16% | 90% | |
| 35 | 37% | 74% | Median |
| 36 | 12% | 38% | |
| 37 | 24% | 25% | |
| 38 | 1.2% | 1.4% | |
| 39 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% |
Independent
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independent page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 3 | 33% | 99.6% | |
| 4 | 62% | 67% | Median |
| 5 | 2% | 4% | |
| 6 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 7 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 8 | 0.7% | 1.0% | |
| 9 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party/Comhaontas Glas page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 23% | 100% | Last Result |
| 3 | 19% | 77% | |
| 4 | 18% | 58% | Median |
| 5 | 26% | 39% | |
| 6 | 11% | 13% | |
| 7 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 8 | 0.8% | 1.1% | |
| 9 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 10 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Labour Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 33% | 100% | |
| 1 | 22% | 67% | Median |
| 2 | 19% | 45% | |
| 3 | 5% | 26% | |
| 4 | 9% | 20% | |
| 5 | 8% | 11% | |
| 6 | 1.2% | 4% | |
| 7 | 2% | 2% | Last Result |
| 8 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 9 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 10 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 11 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Solidarity–People Before Profit
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Solidarity–People Before Profit page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 36% | 100% | |
| 2 | 9% | 64% | |
| 3 | 8% | 56% | Median |
| 4 | 27% | 48% | |
| 5 | 20% | 21% | |
| 6 | 1.0% | 2% | Last Result |
| 7 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 8 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Social Democrats
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Social Democrats page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 44% | 100% | |
| 1 | 51% | 56% | Median |
| 2 | 2% | 5% | |
| 3 | 3% | 3% | Last Result |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Independents 4 Change
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents 4 Change page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14% | 100% | |
| 1 | 15% | 86% | |
| 2 | 38% | 71% | Median |
| 3 | 33% | 33% | |
| 4 | 0.3% | 0.3% | Last Result |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fianna Fáil – Fine Gael | 93 | 110 | 100% | 107–113 | 105–114 | 105–114 | 103–117 |
| Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin | 67 | 88 | 99.6% | 84–95 | 83–95 | 82–95 | 81–96 |
| Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party – Social Democrats | 61 | 62 | 0% | 57–70 | 57–71 | 55–71 | 53–72 |
| Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party | 58 | 61 | 0% | 57–69 | 56–70 | 54–70 | 52–71 |
| Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas | 51 | 60 | 0% | 55–66 | 54–68 | 52–68 | 51–69 |
| Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party – Social Democrats | 56 | 60 | 0% | 56–66 | 54–66 | 54–67 | 51–68 |
| Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party | 53 | 59 | 0% | 55–65 | 54–66 | 53–66 | 51–67 |
| Fine Gael – Labour Party | 56 | 59 | 0% | 53–64 | 52–64 | 51–65 | 48–67 |
| Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas | 46 | 57 | 0% | 53–62 | 53–63 | 51–64 | 50–65 |
| Fine Gael | 49 | 57 | 0% | 51–61 | 50–62 | 49–63 | 47–65 |
| Fianna Fáil – Labour Party | 51 | 55 | 0% | 51–61 | 50–62 | 49–62 | 46–62 |
| Sinn Féin – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party – Solidarity–People Before Profit – Social Democrats | 41 | 44 | 0% | 41–48 | 40–49 | 39–49 | 37–51 |
| Sinn Féin – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party – Solidarity–People Before Profit | 38 | 43 | 0% | 41–47 | 40–48 | 39–49 | 36–50 |
| Sinn Féin – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party – Social Democrats | 35 | 41 | 0% | 37–46 | 37–46 | 37–48 | 35–49 |
| Sinn Féin – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party | 32 | 41 | 0% | 37–45 | 37–46 | 37–47 | 34–48 |
Fianna Fáil – Fine Gael
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 93 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 94 | 0% | 100% | |
| 95 | 0% | 100% | |
| 96 | 0% | 100% | |
| 97 | 0% | 100% | |
| 98 | 0% | 100% | |
| 99 | 0% | 100% | |
| 100 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 101 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 102 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 103 | 0.5% | 99.5% | |
| 104 | 0.9% | 99.0% | |
| 105 | 6% | 98% | |
| 106 | 2% | 92% | |
| 107 | 9% | 90% | |
| 108 | 9% | 82% | |
| 109 | 12% | 73% | |
| 110 | 15% | 61% | Median |
| 111 | 16% | 45% | |
| 112 | 17% | 30% | |
| 113 | 3% | 12% | |
| 114 | 7% | 9% | |
| 115 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 116 | 0.2% | 1.0% | |
| 117 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 118 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 119 | 0% | 0% |
Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 67 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 68 | 0% | 100% | |
| 69 | 0% | 100% | |
| 70 | 0% | 100% | |
| 71 | 0% | 100% | |
| 72 | 0% | 100% | |
| 73 | 0% | 100% | |
| 74 | 0% | 100% | |
| 75 | 0% | 100% | |
| 76 | 0% | 100% | |
| 77 | 0% | 100% | |
| 78 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 79 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 80 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 81 | 2% | 99.6% | Majority |
| 82 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 83 | 5% | 97% | |
| 84 | 6% | 91% | |
| 85 | 4% | 85% | |
| 86 | 4% | 81% | |
| 87 | 17% | 77% | |
| 88 | 13% | 60% | Median |
| 89 | 2% | 47% | |
| 90 | 15% | 46% | |
| 91 | 2% | 31% | |
| 92 | 4% | 29% | |
| 93 | 9% | 25% | |
| 94 | 2% | 15% | |
| 95 | 11% | 13% | |
| 96 | 2% | 2% | |
| 97 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 98 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 99 | 0% | 0% |
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party – Social Democrats
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 51 | 0% | 100% | |
| 52 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 53 | 1.3% | 99.9% | |
| 54 | 0.9% | 98.5% | |
| 55 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 56 | 0.8% | 96% | |
| 57 | 6% | 96% | |
| 58 | 0.8% | 90% | |
| 59 | 25% | 89% | |
| 60 | 5% | 64% | |
| 61 | 1.1% | 59% | Last Result |
| 62 | 18% | 58% | |
| 63 | 3% | 40% | Median |
| 64 | 5% | 37% | |
| 65 | 2% | 32% | |
| 66 | 13% | 30% | |
| 67 | 4% | 17% | |
| 68 | 0.7% | 13% | |
| 69 | 2% | 12% | |
| 70 | 4% | 10% | |
| 71 | 5% | 6% | |
| 72 | 0.9% | 1.1% | |
| 73 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 74 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% |
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 51 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 52 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 53 | 1.5% | 99.4% | |
| 54 | 1.3% | 98% | |
| 55 | 0.6% | 97% | |
| 56 | 2% | 96% | |
| 57 | 7% | 94% | |
| 58 | 8% | 87% | Last Result |
| 59 | 19% | 80% | |
| 60 | 3% | 61% | |
| 61 | 11% | 58% | |
| 62 | 9% | 47% | Median |
| 63 | 5% | 38% | |
| 64 | 3% | 33% | |
| 65 | 12% | 30% | |
| 66 | 2% | 18% | |
| 67 | 4% | 16% | |
| 68 | 1.3% | 12% | |
| 69 | 5% | 11% | |
| 70 | 5% | 6% | |
| 71 | 0.7% | 1.1% | |
| 72 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 73 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% |
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 49 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 50 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 51 | 0.4% | 99.8% | Last Result |
| 52 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 53 | 1.0% | 97% | |
| 54 | 2% | 96% | |
| 55 | 11% | 94% | |
| 56 | 4% | 83% | |
| 57 | 9% | 79% | |
| 58 | 3% | 70% | |
| 59 | 10% | 67% | |
| 60 | 20% | 57% | |
| 61 | 1.2% | 37% | Median |
| 62 | 6% | 35% | |
| 63 | 9% | 29% | |
| 64 | 5% | 20% | |
| 65 | 4% | 15% | |
| 66 | 2% | 11% | |
| 67 | 2% | 9% | |
| 68 | 5% | 7% | |
| 69 | 2% | 2% | |
| 70 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% |
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party – Social Democrats
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50 | 0% | 100% | |
| 51 | 0.7% | 99.9% | |
| 52 | 0.5% | 99.2% | |
| 53 | 0.3% | 98.7% | |
| 54 | 5% | 98% | |
| 55 | 3% | 94% | |
| 56 | 3% | 91% | Last Result |
| 57 | 20% | 88% | |
| 58 | 3% | 69% | |
| 59 | 14% | 66% | Median |
| 60 | 8% | 52% | |
| 61 | 14% | 44% | |
| 62 | 3% | 30% | |
| 63 | 7% | 26% | |
| 64 | 2% | 19% | |
| 65 | 4% | 17% | |
| 66 | 10% | 13% | |
| 67 | 2% | 3% | |
| 68 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 69 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% |
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 48 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 49 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 50 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 51 | 0.9% | 99.7% | |
| 52 | 0.5% | 98.8% | |
| 53 | 1.4% | 98% | Last Result |
| 54 | 4% | 97% | |
| 55 | 4% | 93% | |
| 56 | 14% | 88% | |
| 57 | 8% | 75% | |
| 58 | 5% | 67% | Median |
| 59 | 17% | 61% | |
| 60 | 11% | 45% | |
| 61 | 5% | 33% | |
| 62 | 7% | 28% | |
| 63 | 4% | 21% | |
| 64 | 6% | 17% | |
| 65 | 1.3% | 11% | |
| 66 | 9% | 10% | |
| 67 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 68 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 69 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% |
Fine Gael – Labour Party
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 45 | 0% | 100% | |
| 46 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 47 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 48 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 49 | 0.6% | 99.3% | |
| 50 | 1.1% | 98.7% | |
| 51 | 2% | 98% | |
| 52 | 2% | 95% | |
| 53 | 10% | 94% | |
| 54 | 2% | 84% | |
| 55 | 10% | 82% | |
| 56 | 14% | 72% | Last Result |
| 57 | 2% | 57% | |
| 58 | 4% | 55% | Median |
| 59 | 14% | 51% | |
| 60 | 16% | 37% | |
| 61 | 4% | 21% | |
| 62 | 3% | 17% | |
| 63 | 2% | 14% | |
| 64 | 9% | 12% | |
| 65 | 2% | 3% | |
| 66 | 0.5% | 1.4% | |
| 67 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 68 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 69 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% |
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 46 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 47 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 48 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 49 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 50 | 0.9% | 99.6% | |
| 51 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 52 | 0.8% | 96% | |
| 53 | 6% | 96% | |
| 54 | 4% | 89% | |
| 55 | 18% | 85% | |
| 56 | 7% | 67% | |
| 57 | 11% | 61% | Median |
| 58 | 7% | 49% | |
| 59 | 12% | 43% | |
| 60 | 2% | 31% | |
| 61 | 14% | 29% | |
| 62 | 9% | 14% | |
| 63 | 0.6% | 5% | |
| 64 | 4% | 5% | |
| 65 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 66 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 67 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% |
Fine Gael
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 44 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 45 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 46 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 47 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 48 | 0.7% | 99.2% | |
| 49 | 1.4% | 98% | Last Result |
| 50 | 4% | 97% | |
| 51 | 9% | 93% | |
| 52 | 8% | 84% | |
| 53 | 5% | 77% | |
| 54 | 5% | 71% | |
| 55 | 6% | 66% | |
| 56 | 10% | 60% | |
| 57 | 4% | 51% | Median |
| 58 | 21% | 47% | |
| 59 | 7% | 26% | |
| 60 | 7% | 19% | |
| 61 | 3% | 12% | |
| 62 | 6% | 9% | |
| 63 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 64 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 65 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 66 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% |
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 44 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 45 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 46 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 47 | 0.3% | 99.2% | |
| 48 | 1.0% | 98.9% | |
| 49 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 50 | 3% | 97% | |
| 51 | 4% | 94% | Last Result |
| 52 | 5% | 90% | |
| 53 | 8% | 85% | |
| 54 | 24% | 76% | Median |
| 55 | 8% | 53% | |
| 56 | 10% | 45% | |
| 57 | 8% | 34% | |
| 58 | 5% | 26% | |
| 59 | 2% | 21% | |
| 60 | 8% | 19% | |
| 61 | 4% | 11% | |
| 62 | 7% | 7% | |
| 63 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% |
Sinn Féin – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party – Solidarity–People Before Profit – Social Democrats
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 38 | 0.5% | 99.4% | |
| 39 | 1.5% | 98.9% | |
| 40 | 3% | 97% | |
| 41 | 14% | 95% | Last Result |
| 42 | 7% | 81% | |
| 43 | 4% | 74% | |
| 44 | 28% | 70% | Median |
| 45 | 12% | 42% | |
| 46 | 9% | 30% | |
| 47 | 3% | 21% | |
| 48 | 10% | 18% | |
| 49 | 6% | 8% | |
| 50 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 51 | 0.9% | 1.4% | |
| 52 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 53 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 54 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% |
Sinn Féin – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party – Solidarity–People Before Profit
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 37 | 0.4% | 99.5% | |
| 38 | 0.5% | 99.1% | Last Result |
| 39 | 3% | 98.5% | |
| 40 | 2% | 96% | |
| 41 | 20% | 94% | |
| 42 | 2% | 75% | |
| 43 | 24% | 72% | Median |
| 44 | 13% | 48% | |
| 45 | 9% | 35% | |
| 46 | 8% | 26% | |
| 47 | 10% | 19% | |
| 48 | 6% | 9% | |
| 49 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 50 | 0.9% | 1.3% | |
| 51 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 52 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 53 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% |
Sinn Féin – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party – Social Democrats
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0.8% | 99.7% | Last Result |
| 36 | 0.7% | 98.9% | |
| 37 | 14% | 98% | |
| 38 | 2% | 84% | |
| 39 | 14% | 82% | |
| 40 | 11% | 68% | |
| 41 | 9% | 57% | Median |
| 42 | 3% | 48% | |
| 43 | 18% | 45% | |
| 44 | 8% | 27% | |
| 45 | 7% | 19% | |
| 46 | 7% | 12% | |
| 47 | 0.9% | 5% | |
| 48 | 3% | 4% | |
| 49 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 50 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 51 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 52 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% |
Sinn Féin – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 33 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 34 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 35 | 1.0% | 99.3% | |
| 36 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 37 | 15% | 98% | |
| 38 | 13% | 83% | |
| 39 | 7% | 70% | |
| 40 | 12% | 63% | Median |
| 41 | 5% | 51% | |
| 42 | 16% | 46% | |
| 43 | 10% | 30% | |
| 44 | 3% | 20% | |
| 45 | 12% | 17% | |
| 46 | 1.4% | 5% | |
| 47 | 3% | 4% | |
| 48 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 49 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 50 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 51 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Behaviour and Attitudes
- Commissioner(s): The Sunday Times
- Fieldwork period: 2–14 May 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 933
- Simulations done: 131,072
- Error estimate: 1.69%