Opinion Poll by Red C for The Sunday Business Post, 6–16 May 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael 25.5% 28.2% 26.7–29.3% 26.4–29.7% 26.1–30.0% 25.5–30.7%
Fianna Fáil 24.3% 24.2% 22.8–25.3% 22.5–25.6% 22.2–25.9% 21.6–26.5%
Independent 15.9% 13.6% 12.6–14.5% 12.3–14.8% 12.1–15.1% 11.6–15.6%
Sinn Féin 13.8% 13.1% 12.1–14.0% 11.8–14.3% 11.6–14.6% 11.2–15.0%
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2.7% 7.0% 6.3–7.8% 6.1–8.0% 6.0–8.2% 5.6–8.6%
Labour Party 6.6% 5.0% 4.4–5.7% 4.3–5.9% 4.1–6.1% 3.9–6.4%
Solidarity–People Before Profit 3.9% 2.0% 1.6–2.5% 1.6–2.6% 1.5–2.7% 1.3–3.0%
Social Democrats 3.0% 2.0% 1.6–2.5% 1.6–2.6% 1.5–2.7% 1.3–3.0%
Independents 4 Change 1.5% 1.7% 1.4–2.1% 1.3–2.3% 1.2–2.4% 1.1–2.6%
Renua Ireland 2.2% 0.3% 0.8–1.4% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.5% 0.5–1.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael 49 54 51–58 50–60 50–61 48–63
Fianna Fáil 44 50 43–50 42–51 42–52 41–53
Independent 19 16 15–16 15–16 14–16 13–16
Sinn Féin 23 23 22–29 21–30 20–30 18–31
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2 7 5–8 5–9 5–9 5–10
Labour Party 7 3 2–4 1–4 1–5 1–7
Solidarity–People Before Profit 6 0 0–1 0–2 0–2 0–3
Social Democrats 3 3 3 3 3 3
Independents 4 Change 4 4 4–5 3–5 3–5 2–5
Renua Ireland 0 0 0 0 0 0

Fine Gael

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fine Gael page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.9% 99.9%  
49 1.0% 99.0% Last Result
50 5% 98%  
51 6% 93%  
52 4% 87%  
53 8% 83%  
54 43% 75% Median
55 6% 32%  
56 5% 26%  
57 7% 21%  
58 5% 14%  
59 4% 9%  
60 0.9% 5%  
61 3% 4%  
62 1.1% 2%  
63 0.3% 0.6%  
64 0.2% 0.3%  
65 0.1% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fianna Fáil page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.2% 100%  
40 0.3% 99.8%  
41 2% 99.5%  
42 5% 98%  
43 4% 92%  
44 7% 88% Last Result
45 3% 81%  
46 4% 78%  
47 7% 74%  
48 12% 67%  
49 5% 55%  
50 44% 50% Median
51 3% 6%  
52 2% 3%  
53 0.8% 0.9%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Independent

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independent page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.1% 100%  
12 0.2% 99.9%  
13 2% 99.7%  
14 2% 98%  
15 8% 95%  
16 87% 87% Median
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Sinn Féin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinn Féin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0% 100%  
17 0.2% 99.9%  
18 0.8% 99.8%  
19 1.0% 99.0%  
20 2% 98%  
21 3% 96%  
22 8% 93%  
23 49% 85% Last Result, Median
24 5% 35%  
25 9% 30%  
26 3% 21%  
27 3% 17%  
28 3% 15%  
29 3% 11%  
30 6% 8%  
31 2% 2%  
32 0.1% 0.1%  
33 0% 0%  

Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party/Comhaontas Glas page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 12% 100%  
6 16% 88%  
7 45% 72% Median
8 17% 26%  
9 8% 9%  
10 0.9% 1.4%  
11 0.2% 0.5%  
12 0.2% 0.2%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.3% 100%  
1 9% 99.7%  
2 11% 91%  
3 48% 80% Median
4 27% 32%  
5 3% 5%  
6 2% 2%  
7 0.2% 0.5% Last Result
8 0.3% 0.4%  
9 0% 0%  

Solidarity–People Before Profit

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Solidarity–People Before Profit page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 73% 100% Median
1 17% 27%  
2 9% 10%  
3 0.4% 0.7%  
4 0.4% 0.4%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0% Last Result

Social Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Social Democrats page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100%  
2 0.4% 99.9%  
3 99.3% 99.5% Last Result, Median
4 0.2% 0.2%  
5 0% 0%  

Independents 4 Change

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents 4 Change page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100%  
2 0.5% 99.9%  
3 5% 99.4%  
4 65% 94% Last Result, Median
5 29% 29%  
6 0% 0%  

Renua Ireland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Renua Ireland page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael – Fianna Fáil 93 104 100% 98–105 96–106 95–107 95–109
Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin 67 73 0% 68–74 67–75 66–76 65–78
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party – Social Democrats 61 67 0% 64–71 63–73 63–74 61–76
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party 58 64 0% 61–68 61–70 60–71 58–73
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 51 61 0% 58–65 57–67 56–68 56–70
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party – Social Democrats 56 63 0% 56–64 54–64 53–65 52–67
Fine Gael – Labour Party 56 57 0% 54–62 53–63 52–65 51–67
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party 53 60 0% 53–61 51–61 50–62 49–64
Fine Gael 49 54 0% 51–58 50–60 50–61 48–63
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 46 57 0% 50–57 48–58 48–60 46–61
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party 51 53 0% 46–53 45–54 44–55 43–56

Fine Gael – Fianna Fáil

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
93 0.1% 100% Last Result
94 0.2% 99.9%  
95 3% 99.7%  
96 2% 96%  
97 4% 95%  
98 2% 91%  
99 5% 88%  
100 9% 84%  
101 5% 75%  
102 6% 70%  
103 9% 63%  
104 43% 54% Median
105 3% 11%  
106 5% 8%  
107 1.3% 3%  
108 0.9% 2%  
109 0.9% 1.3%  
110 0.1% 0.4%  
111 0.2% 0.3%  
112 0.1% 0.1%  
113 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100%  
63 0.1% 99.9%  
64 0.2% 99.8%  
65 0.8% 99.7%  
66 3% 98.9%  
67 3% 96% Last Result
68 4% 93%  
69 4% 89%  
70 12% 85%  
71 4% 74%  
72 4% 70%  
73 50% 65% Median
74 6% 16%  
75 5% 10%  
76 3% 5%  
77 1.4% 2%  
78 0.5% 0.8%  
79 0.2% 0.2%  
80 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party – Social Democrats

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.3% 100%  
61 0.3% 99.7% Last Result
62 0.5% 99.4%  
63 4% 98.9%  
64 8% 95%  
65 3% 87%  
66 8% 84%  
67 45% 75% Median
68 3% 30%  
69 6% 27%  
70 4% 21%  
71 8% 17%  
72 3% 9%  
73 2% 6%  
74 1.4% 3%  
75 0.5% 2%  
76 1.3% 2%  
77 0.2% 0.3%  
78 0% 0.1%  
79 0% 0.1%  
80 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.3% 100%  
58 0.3% 99.7% Last Result
59 0.5% 99.4%  
60 4% 98.9%  
61 8% 95%  
62 3% 87%  
63 8% 84%  
64 45% 75% Median
65 3% 30%  
66 6% 27%  
67 4% 21%  
68 8% 17%  
69 3% 9%  
70 2% 6%  
71 1.5% 3%  
72 0.4% 2%  
73 1.3% 2%  
74 0.2% 0.3%  
75 0% 0.1%  
76 0% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100% Last Result
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 100%  
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0.3% 99.9%  
56 3% 99.5%  
57 5% 97%  
58 2% 92%  
59 8% 90%  
60 5% 81%  
61 43% 77% Median
62 9% 34%  
63 5% 25%  
64 7% 20%  
65 5% 12%  
66 3% 8%  
67 2% 5%  
68 1.2% 3%  
69 1.5% 2%  
70 0.4% 0.6%  
71 0.1% 0.2%  
72 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party – Social Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.1% 99.9%  
52 0.4% 99.8%  
53 4% 99.4%  
54 1.4% 96%  
55 3% 94%  
56 2% 91% Last Result
57 7% 89%  
58 3% 83%  
59 6% 80%  
60 9% 74%  
61 8% 65%  
62 3% 57%  
63 41% 54% Median
64 8% 12%  
65 2% 4%  
66 0.8% 2%  
67 1.0% 1.2%  
68 0.1% 0.3%  
69 0.2% 0.2%  
70 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.2% 99.9%  
51 0.6% 99.7%  
52 2% 99.1%  
53 3% 97%  
54 5% 94%  
55 9% 89%  
56 6% 80% Last Result
57 41% 74% Median
58 6% 33%  
59 5% 27%  
60 4% 22%  
61 3% 18%  
62 9% 15%  
63 2% 6%  
64 1.3% 4%  
65 2% 3%  
66 0.4% 1.0%  
67 0.3% 0.5%  
68 0.2% 0.3%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.1% 99.9%  
49 0.4% 99.8%  
50 4% 99.4%  
51 1.4% 96%  
52 3% 94%  
53 2% 91% Last Result
54 7% 89%  
55 3% 83%  
56 6% 80%  
57 9% 74%  
58 8% 65%  
59 3% 57%  
60 41% 54% Median
61 8% 12%  
62 2% 4%  
63 0.8% 2%  
64 1.0% 1.3%  
65 0.1% 0.3%  
66 0.2% 0.2%  
67 0% 0%  

Fine Gael

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.9% 99.9%  
49 1.0% 99.0% Last Result
50 5% 98%  
51 6% 93%  
52 4% 87%  
53 8% 83%  
54 43% 75% Median
55 6% 32%  
56 5% 26%  
57 7% 21%  
58 5% 14%  
59 4% 9%  
60 0.9% 5%  
61 3% 4%  
62 1.1% 2%  
63 0.3% 0.6%  
64 0.2% 0.3%  
65 0.1% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.2% 100%  
46 0.5% 99.8% Last Result
47 1.3% 99.3%  
48 3% 98%  
49 3% 95%  
50 6% 91%  
51 2% 85%  
52 5% 83%  
53 7% 78%  
54 8% 71%  
55 4% 63%  
56 7% 59%  
57 42% 52% Median
58 5% 10%  
59 2% 4%  
60 2% 3%  
61 0.7% 0.9%  
62 0.1% 0.2%  
63 0.1% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.1% 99.9%  
42 0.2% 99.8%  
43 0.2% 99.6%  
44 3% 99.4%  
45 3% 96%  
46 6% 94%  
47 4% 87%  
48 6% 84%  
49 6% 77%  
50 4% 71%  
51 7% 68% Last Result
52 8% 61%  
53 43% 52% Median
54 5% 10%  
55 4% 5%  
56 0.4% 0.8%  
57 0.1% 0.3%  
58 0.2% 0.2%  
59 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations