Opinion Poll by Ireland Thinks for The Irish Daily Mail, 1–22 May 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael 25.5% 28.0% 26.6–29.5% 26.2–29.9% 25.8–30.3% 25.2–31.0%
Fianna Fáil 24.3% 25.0% 23.6–26.4% 23.2–26.8% 22.9–27.2% 22.3–27.9%
Sinn Féin 13.8% 16.0% 14.8–17.2% 14.5–17.6% 14.3–17.9% 13.7–18.5%
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2.7% 7.0% 6.2–7.9% 6.0–8.1% 5.8–8.4% 5.5–8.8%
Labour Party 6.6% 6.0% 5.3–6.8% 5.1–7.1% 4.9–7.3% 4.6–7.7%
Social Democrats 3.0% 3.0% 2.5–3.7% 2.4–3.8% 2.3–4.0% 2.1–4.3%
Solidarity–People Before Profit 3.9% 2.0% 1.6–2.5% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.8% 1.3–3.1%
Independents 4 Change 1.5% -0.1% 0.0–0.2% 0.0–0.2% 0.0–0.2% 0.0–0.3%
Independent 15.9% -0.8% 0.0–0.2% 0.0–0.2% 0.0–0.2% 0.0–0.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael 49 56 56–57 53–59 52–59 50–62
Fianna Fáil 44 50 50–51 50–51 50–53 43–57
Sinn Féin 23 34 34–36 34–37 34–37 30–38
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2 9 6–9 5–9 5–9 5–10
Labour Party 7 8 6–8 6–8 5–9 3–14
Social Democrats 3 3 3–4 3–4 3–5 3–5
Solidarity–People Before Profit 6 0 0 0 0–1 0–2
Independents 4 Change 4 0 0 0 0 0
Independent 19 0 0 0 0 0

Fine Gael

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fine Gael page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100% Last Result
50 0.7% 100%  
51 0.1% 99.2%  
52 4% 99.2%  
53 1.1% 95%  
54 0.2% 94%  
55 0.9% 94%  
56 82% 93% Median
57 3% 12%  
58 0.9% 9%  
59 6% 8%  
60 0.5% 1.4%  
61 0.3% 1.0%  
62 0.4% 0.7%  
63 0.1% 0.2%  
64 0% 0.2%  
65 0.1% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fianna Fáil page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0% 100%  
42 0.3% 99.9%  
43 0.5% 99.6%  
44 0.4% 99.2% Last Result
45 0.1% 98.8%  
46 0.1% 98.7%  
47 0.1% 98.5%  
48 0.4% 98%  
49 0.4% 98%  
50 88% 98% Median
51 6% 10%  
52 0.9% 4%  
53 1.3% 3%  
54 0.7% 1.5%  
55 0.2% 0.8%  
56 0% 0.6%  
57 0.5% 0.6%  
58 0% 0%  

Sinn Féin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinn Féin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0.2% 100%  
29 0.2% 99.7%  
30 0.1% 99.5%  
31 0.1% 99.5%  
32 0.3% 99.4%  
33 0.6% 99.1%  
34 82% 98.5% Median
35 4% 16%  
36 8% 13%  
37 4% 5%  
38 0.7% 1.2%  
39 0% 0.5%  
40 0% 0.4%  
41 0.4% 0.4%  
42 0% 0%  

Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party/Comhaontas Glas page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0.4% 100%  
5 9% 99.6%  
6 3% 91%  
7 0.6% 88%  
8 5% 88%  
9 82% 83% Median
10 0.4% 0.6%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.1% 100%  
3 1.0% 99.9%  
4 0.5% 98.8%  
5 1.4% 98%  
6 9% 97%  
7 0.8% 88% Last Result
8 82% 87% Median
9 4% 5%  
10 0.1% 1.0%  
11 0.1% 0.9%  
12 0.2% 0.9%  
13 0% 0.6%  
14 0.4% 0.6%  
15 0% 0.2%  
16 0% 0.2%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Social Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Social Democrats page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 86% 100% Last Result, Median
4 10% 14%  
5 4% 4%  
6 0% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Solidarity–People Before Profit

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Solidarity–People Before Profit page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 96% 100% Median
1 2% 4%  
2 2% 2%  
3 0.1% 0.1%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0% Last Result

Independents 4 Change

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents 4 Change page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0% Last Result

Independent

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independent page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael – Fianna Fáil 93 106 100% 106–108 103–109 103–109 100–113
Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin 67 84 99.0% 84–86 84–88 84–89 77–91
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party – Social Democrats 61 76 0.8% 74–76 72–76 71–76 69–82
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party 58 73 0% 69–73 69–73 67–73 65–78
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party – Social Democrats 56 70 0.2% 68–70 65–70 65–71 60–72
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party 53 67 0% 63–67 61–67 61–68 57–68
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 51 65 0% 64–65 60–65 60–65 57–69
Fine Gael – Labour Party 56 64 0% 63–64 61–65 59–65 58–71
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party 51 58 0% 57–58 56–59 56–60 51–61
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 46 59 0% 57–59 55–59 55–60 49–63
Fine Gael 49 56 0% 56–57 53–59 52–59 50–62

Fine Gael – Fianna Fáil

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
93 0% 100% Last Result
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0.1% 100%  
100 0.5% 99.8%  
101 0.1% 99.3%  
102 0.1% 99.2%  
103 4% 99.2%  
104 0.1% 95%  
105 0.5% 95%  
106 82% 94% Median
107 0.9% 12%  
108 3% 11%  
109 7% 8%  
110 0.9% 2%  
111 0.1% 0.6%  
112 0% 0.6%  
113 0.4% 0.5%  
114 0% 0.1%  
115 0% 0.1%  
116 0.1% 0.1%  
117 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0.8% 99.9%  
78 0.1% 99.2%  
79 0.1% 99.1%  
80 0% 99.1%  
81 0.2% 99.0% Majority
82 0.7% 98.8%  
83 0.4% 98%  
84 81% 98% Median
85 0.5% 17%  
86 9% 16%  
87 0.4% 7%  
88 4% 7%  
89 2% 3%  
90 0.1% 0.8%  
91 0.6% 0.7%  
92 0% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party – Social Democrats

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100% Last Result
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0.1% 100%  
69 1.0% 99.9%  
70 1.0% 98.9%  
71 0.9% 98%  
72 4% 97%  
73 0.3% 93%  
74 9% 92%  
75 0.4% 83%  
76 81% 83% Median
77 0.4% 2%  
78 0.5% 2%  
79 0.2% 1.1%  
80 0.1% 0.9%  
81 0.1% 0.8% Majority
82 0.7% 0.8%  
83 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100% Last Result
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 100%  
61 0% 100%  
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 0.4% 99.9%  
65 0.7% 99.5%  
66 0.9% 98.8%  
67 0.9% 98%  
68 0.7% 97%  
69 7% 96%  
70 6% 90%  
71 0.4% 84%  
72 0.4% 83%  
73 81% 83% Median
74 0.1% 1.5%  
75 0.5% 1.4%  
76 0.1% 0.9%  
77 0.1% 0.8%  
78 0.3% 0.8%  
79 0.5% 0.5%  
80 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party – Social Democrats

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0% 100% Last Result
57 0% 100%  
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0% 99.9%  
60 0.3% 99.8%  
61 0% 99.5%  
62 0% 99.5%  
63 0.5% 99.4%  
64 0.1% 98.9%  
65 7% 98.8%  
66 0.7% 92%  
67 0.4% 92%  
68 3% 91%  
69 0.7% 88%  
70 83% 88% Median
71 4% 5%  
72 0.4% 0.8%  
73 0% 0.4%  
74 0% 0.4%  
75 0% 0.3%  
76 0% 0.3%  
77 0% 0.3%  
78 0% 0.3%  
79 0% 0.3%  
80 0% 0.2%  
81 0.2% 0.2% Majority
82 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100% Last Result
54 0% 99.9%  
55 0% 99.8%  
56 0.1% 99.8%  
57 0.3% 99.8%  
58 0.2% 99.5%  
59 0.3% 99.2%  
60 0.1% 98.9%  
61 6% 98.8%  
62 0.9% 93%  
63 3% 92%  
64 0.4% 89%  
65 1.2% 89%  
66 2% 87%  
67 81% 85% Median
68 4% 4%  
69 0.1% 0.4%  
70 0% 0.3%  
71 0% 0.3%  
72 0% 0.3%  
73 0% 0.3%  
74 0% 0.3%  
75 0% 0.3%  
76 0% 0.2%  
77 0% 0.2%  
78 0.2% 0.2%  
79 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100% Last Result
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 100%  
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 100%  
56 0% 100%  
57 0.6% 100%  
58 0.2% 99.3%  
59 0.6% 99.2%  
60 4% 98.5%  
61 1.2% 95%  
62 0.5% 94%  
63 3% 93%  
64 7% 90%  
65 82% 83% Median
66 0.3% 1.5%  
67 0.5% 1.2%  
68 0.2% 0.7%  
69 0.1% 0.6%  
70 0.1% 0.5%  
71 0.3% 0.3%  
72 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
57 0% 99.9%  
58 2% 99.8%  
59 0.5% 98%  
60 0.1% 97%  
61 4% 97%  
62 0.6% 93%  
63 3% 93%  
64 82% 90% Median
65 6% 8%  
66 0.2% 2%  
67 0.1% 2%  
68 0.4% 1.5%  
69 0.1% 1.1%  
70 0.4% 1.0%  
71 0% 0.5%  
72 0% 0.5%  
73 0% 0.4%  
74 0.4% 0.4%  
75 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.3% 99.8%  
50 0% 99.5%  
51 0.1% 99.5% Last Result
52 0.3% 99.4%  
53 0.2% 99.1%  
54 0.1% 98.9%  
55 0.2% 98.8%  
56 7% 98.6%  
57 4% 92%  
58 83% 88% Median
59 0.4% 5%  
60 4% 5%  
61 0.1% 0.6%  
62 0% 0.5%  
63 0.1% 0.4%  
64 0% 0.3%  
65 0% 0.3%  
66 0% 0.3%  
67 0% 0.3%  
68 0% 0.2%  
69 0.2% 0.2%  
70 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0% 100% Last Result
47 0% 100%  
48 0.4% 99.9%  
49 0.3% 99.5%  
50 0.2% 99.2%  
51 0.1% 99.0%  
52 0.3% 98.9%  
53 0.3% 98.6%  
54 0.1% 98%  
55 6% 98%  
56 0.5% 92%  
57 3% 92%  
58 0.5% 88%  
59 85% 88% Median
60 0.4% 3%  
61 1.0% 2%  
62 0.3% 1.4%  
63 0.7% 1.1%  
64 0% 0.4%  
65 0.1% 0.3%  
66 0.2% 0.2%  
67 0% 0%  

Fine Gael

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100% Last Result
50 0.7% 100%  
51 0.1% 99.2%  
52 4% 99.2%  
53 1.1% 95%  
54 0.2% 94%  
55 0.9% 94%  
56 82% 93% Median
57 3% 12%  
58 0.9% 9%  
59 6% 8%  
60 0.5% 1.4%  
61 0.3% 1.0%  
62 0.4% 0.7%  
63 0.1% 0.2%  
64 0% 0.2%  
65 0.1% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations