Opinion Poll by Red C for RTÉ, 24 May 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
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Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Fine Gael |
25.5% |
26.2% |
24.9–27.1% |
24.6–27.4% |
24.4–27.7% |
23.8–28.2% |
Fianna Fáil |
24.3% |
23.2% |
22.0–24.1% |
21.7–24.4% |
21.4–24.6% |
20.9–25.1% |
Sinn Féin |
13.8% |
15.1% |
14.2–15.9% |
13.9–16.2% |
13.7–16.4% |
13.3–16.9% |
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas |
2.7% |
12.1% |
11.2–12.9% |
11.0–13.1% |
10.8–13.3% |
10.5–13.7% |
Independent |
15.9% |
9.4% |
8.6–10.0% |
8.4–10.3% |
8.2–10.5% |
7.9–10.8% |
Labour Party |
6.6% |
5.1% |
4.5–5.6% |
4.4–5.8% |
4.3–5.9% |
4.0–6.2% |
Social Democrats |
3.0% |
3.0% |
2.6–3.5% |
2.5–3.6% |
2.4–3.7% |
2.2–4.0% |
Solidarity–People Before Profit |
3.9% |
2.0% |
1.7–2.4% |
1.6–2.5% |
1.5–2.6% |
1.4–2.8% |
Independents 4 Change |
1.5% |
1.2% |
0.9–1.5% |
0.9–1.6% |
0.8–1.6% |
0.7–1.8% |
Renua Ireland |
2.2% |
0.3% |
0.8–1.3% |
0.7–1.4% |
0.7–1.5% |
0.6–1.6% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
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
Confidence Intervals
Fine Gael
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fine Gael page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
37 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
38 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
39 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
40 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
41 |
0.5% |
99.8% |
|
42 |
0.7% |
99.4% |
|
43 |
2% |
98.7% |
|
44 |
0.7% |
97% |
|
45 |
2% |
96% |
|
46 |
2% |
94% |
|
47 |
3% |
92% |
|
48 |
24% |
89% |
|
49 |
3% |
65% |
Last Result |
50 |
16% |
62% |
Median |
51 |
4% |
46% |
|
52 |
11% |
43% |
|
53 |
11% |
31% |
|
54 |
18% |
20% |
|
55 |
0.9% |
2% |
|
56 |
0.7% |
0.9% |
|
57 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
58 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
59 |
0% |
0% |
|
Fianna Fáil
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fianna Fáil page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
32 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
33 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
34 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
|
35 |
12% |
99.4% |
|
36 |
3% |
88% |
|
37 |
15% |
85% |
|
38 |
2% |
70% |
|
39 |
11% |
68% |
|
40 |
7% |
57% |
|
41 |
23% |
50% |
Median |
42 |
2% |
27% |
|
43 |
1.3% |
25% |
|
44 |
2% |
24% |
Last Result |
45 |
20% |
22% |
|
46 |
0.3% |
3% |
|
47 |
1.0% |
3% |
|
48 |
1.3% |
1.5% |
|
49 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
50 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
51 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
52 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sinn Féin
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinn Féin page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
23 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
24 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
25 |
0.4% |
99.8% |
|
26 |
0.4% |
99.5% |
|
27 |
0.4% |
99.1% |
|
28 |
4% |
98.7% |
|
29 |
0.9% |
95% |
|
30 |
0.7% |
94% |
|
31 |
56% |
93% |
Median |
32 |
29% |
37% |
|
33 |
4% |
8% |
|
34 |
3% |
4% |
|
35 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
36 |
0% |
0% |
|
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party/Comhaontas Glas page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
16 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
17 |
24% |
99.8% |
|
18 |
14% |
76% |
|
19 |
37% |
61% |
Median |
20 |
2% |
24% |
|
21 |
3% |
22% |
|
22 |
5% |
20% |
|
23 |
13% |
14% |
|
24 |
0.4% |
2% |
|
25 |
1.0% |
1.4% |
|
26 |
0.3% |
0.5% |
|
27 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
Independent
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independent page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
3 |
31% |
100% |
|
4 |
1.0% |
69% |
|
5 |
0.4% |
68% |
|
6 |
5% |
68% |
|
7 |
19% |
63% |
Median |
8 |
24% |
44% |
|
9 |
13% |
20% |
|
10 |
1.1% |
7% |
|
11 |
4% |
6% |
|
12 |
1.2% |
2% |
|
13 |
0.2% |
0.8% |
|
14 |
0.2% |
0.6% |
|
15 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
16 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Labour Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
5% |
100% |
|
2 |
4% |
95% |
|
3 |
12% |
91% |
|
4 |
21% |
79% |
|
5 |
37% |
57% |
Median |
6 |
2% |
20% |
|
7 |
13% |
18% |
Last Result |
8 |
2% |
5% |
|
9 |
2% |
3% |
|
10 |
0.4% |
0.7% |
|
11 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
12 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
13 |
0% |
0% |
|
Social Democrats
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Social Democrats page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
3 |
76% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
4 |
4% |
24% |
|
5 |
20% |
20% |
|
6 |
0.7% |
0.7% |
|
7 |
0% |
0% |
|
Solidarity–People Before Profit
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Solidarity–People Before Profit page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
14% |
100% |
|
1 |
86% |
86% |
Median |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
|
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Independents 4 Change
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents 4 Change page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
1 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
2 |
48% |
99.8% |
|
3 |
52% |
52% |
Median |
4 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Renua Ireland
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Renua Ireland page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
11% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
89% |
89% |
Median |
2 |
0.3% |
0.8% |
|
3 |
0.6% |
0.6% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
|
Coalitions
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Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Fine Gael – Fianna Fáil |
93 |
92 |
98.9% |
87–95 |
85–95 |
83–95 |
80–98 |
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party – Social Democrats |
61 |
79 |
45% |
72–82 |
71–82 |
71–84 |
67–85 |
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party |
58 |
75 |
2% |
69–78 |
68–79 |
67–79 |
64–82 |
Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin |
67 |
72 |
0.1% |
67–76 |
67–76 |
65–78 |
64–79 |
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas |
51 |
69 |
0% |
65–75 |
64–75 |
63–75 |
60–77 |
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party – Social Democrats |
56 |
68 |
0% |
64–70 |
64–72 |
64–73 |
63–76 |
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party |
53 |
64 |
0% |
61–66 |
61–69 |
60–70 |
58–73 |
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas |
46 |
60 |
0% |
55–62 |
55–64 |
55–65 |
54–70 |
Fine Gael – Labour Party |
56 |
55 |
0% |
50–59 |
49–59 |
49–59 |
44–62 |
Fine Gael |
49 |
50 |
0% |
47–54 |
45–54 |
43–54 |
41–56 |
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party |
51 |
45 |
0% |
38–49 |
38–49 |
38–51 |
38–54 |
Fine Gael – Fianna Fáil

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
78 |
0% |
100% |
|
79 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
80 |
1.0% |
99.9% |
|
81 |
0.4% |
98.9% |
Majority |
82 |
0.9% |
98.5% |
|
83 |
0.9% |
98% |
|
84 |
1.1% |
97% |
|
85 |
2% |
96% |
|
86 |
3% |
94% |
|
87 |
24% |
91% |
|
88 |
1.0% |
67% |
|
89 |
6% |
66% |
|
90 |
5% |
61% |
|
91 |
4% |
56% |
Median |
92 |
11% |
52% |
|
93 |
20% |
42% |
Last Result |
94 |
4% |
22% |
|
95 |
16% |
18% |
|
96 |
0.7% |
2% |
|
97 |
0.4% |
0.9% |
|
98 |
0.3% |
0.5% |
|
99 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
100 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
101 |
0% |
0% |
|
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party – Social Democrats

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
61 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
62 |
0% |
100% |
|
63 |
0% |
100% |
|
64 |
0% |
100% |
|
65 |
0% |
100% |
|
66 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
67 |
0.2% |
99.6% |
|
68 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
|
69 |
0.1% |
99.3% |
|
70 |
1.0% |
99.1% |
|
71 |
6% |
98% |
|
72 |
18% |
92% |
|
73 |
0.7% |
74% |
|
74 |
2% |
73% |
|
75 |
4% |
71% |
|
76 |
2% |
67% |
|
77 |
2% |
65% |
Median |
78 |
11% |
63% |
|
79 |
6% |
53% |
|
80 |
1.3% |
46% |
|
81 |
26% |
45% |
Majority |
82 |
15% |
19% |
|
83 |
0.9% |
4% |
|
84 |
2% |
3% |
|
85 |
0.4% |
0.9% |
|
86 |
0.2% |
0.5% |
|
87 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
88 |
0% |
0% |
|
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
58 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
59 |
0% |
100% |
|
60 |
0% |
100% |
|
61 |
0% |
100% |
|
62 |
0% |
100% |
|
63 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
64 |
0.3% |
99.6% |
|
65 |
0.1% |
99.3% |
|
66 |
0.1% |
99.2% |
|
67 |
3% |
99.1% |
|
68 |
5% |
97% |
|
69 |
18% |
92% |
|
70 |
0.6% |
73% |
|
71 |
3% |
73% |
|
72 |
4% |
70% |
|
73 |
3% |
66% |
|
74 |
6% |
64% |
Median |
75 |
9% |
57% |
|
76 |
3% |
48% |
|
77 |
13% |
45% |
|
78 |
26% |
32% |
|
79 |
4% |
6% |
|
80 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
81 |
1.0% |
2% |
Majority |
82 |
0.5% |
0.8% |
|
83 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
84 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
85 |
0% |
0% |
|
Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
60 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
61 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
62 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
63 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
64 |
1.1% |
99.6% |
|
65 |
3% |
98.5% |
|
66 |
0.2% |
95% |
|
67 |
12% |
95% |
Last Result |
68 |
2% |
83% |
|
69 |
9% |
81% |
|
70 |
11% |
72% |
|
71 |
10% |
61% |
|
72 |
17% |
51% |
Median |
73 |
7% |
34% |
|
74 |
2% |
26% |
|
75 |
2% |
24% |
|
76 |
19% |
23% |
|
77 |
0.4% |
3% |
|
78 |
1.4% |
3% |
|
79 |
1.2% |
2% |
|
80 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
81 |
0% |
0.1% |
Majority |
82 |
0% |
0% |
|
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
51 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
52 |
0% |
100% |
|
53 |
0% |
100% |
|
54 |
0% |
100% |
|
55 |
0% |
100% |
|
56 |
0% |
100% |
|
57 |
0% |
100% |
|
58 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
59 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
60 |
0.4% |
99.8% |
|
61 |
0.6% |
99.4% |
|
62 |
0.3% |
98.7% |
|
63 |
2% |
98% |
|
64 |
1.2% |
96% |
|
65 |
21% |
95% |
|
66 |
3% |
74% |
|
67 |
7% |
72% |
|
68 |
9% |
64% |
|
69 |
6% |
55% |
Median |
70 |
0.8% |
49% |
|
71 |
2% |
49% |
|
72 |
16% |
47% |
|
73 |
16% |
31% |
|
74 |
2% |
14% |
|
75 |
10% |
12% |
|
76 |
0.7% |
2% |
|
77 |
0.5% |
0.9% |
|
78 |
0.2% |
0.5% |
|
79 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
80 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
81 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party – Social Democrats

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
56 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
57 |
0% |
100% |
|
58 |
0% |
100% |
|
59 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
60 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
61 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
62 |
0.2% |
99.7% |
|
63 |
0.8% |
99.5% |
|
64 |
15% |
98.7% |
|
65 |
10% |
83% |
|
66 |
4% |
73% |
|
67 |
4% |
69% |
|
68 |
29% |
65% |
Median |
69 |
25% |
36% |
|
70 |
2% |
11% |
|
71 |
3% |
8% |
|
72 |
2% |
6% |
|
73 |
1.3% |
3% |
|
74 |
0.4% |
2% |
|
75 |
0.9% |
2% |
|
76 |
0.5% |
0.8% |
|
77 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
78 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
79 |
0% |
0% |
|
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
53 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
54 |
0% |
100% |
|
55 |
0% |
100% |
|
56 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
57 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
58 |
0.3% |
99.7% |
|
59 |
1.5% |
99.4% |
|
60 |
1.4% |
98% |
|
61 |
15% |
97% |
|
62 |
10% |
82% |
|
63 |
15% |
72% |
|
64 |
8% |
56% |
|
65 |
17% |
49% |
Median |
66 |
22% |
31% |
|
67 |
2% |
9% |
|
68 |
2% |
8% |
|
69 |
3% |
6% |
|
70 |
0.8% |
3% |
|
71 |
0.4% |
2% |
|
72 |
0.8% |
2% |
|
73 |
0.6% |
0.7% |
|
74 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
75 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
76 |
0% |
0% |
|
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
46 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
47 |
0% |
100% |
|
48 |
0% |
100% |
|
49 |
0% |
100% |
|
50 |
0% |
100% |
|
51 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
52 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
53 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
54 |
1.4% |
99.5% |
|
55 |
9% |
98% |
|
56 |
1.1% |
89% |
|
57 |
3% |
88% |
|
58 |
27% |
85% |
|
59 |
8% |
58% |
|
60 |
23% |
50% |
Median |
61 |
2% |
28% |
|
62 |
19% |
26% |
|
63 |
1.4% |
7% |
|
64 |
1.5% |
6% |
|
65 |
2% |
4% |
|
66 |
0.8% |
2% |
|
67 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
68 |
0.4% |
1.3% |
|
69 |
0.2% |
1.0% |
|
70 |
0.8% |
0.8% |
|
71 |
0% |
0% |
|
Fine Gael – Labour Party

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
44 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
45 |
0.5% |
99.5% |
|
46 |
0.5% |
99.0% |
|
47 |
0.1% |
98% |
|
48 |
0.4% |
98% |
|
49 |
4% |
98% |
|
50 |
4% |
94% |
|
51 |
1.1% |
90% |
|
52 |
20% |
88% |
|
53 |
5% |
69% |
|
54 |
2% |
64% |
|
55 |
16% |
62% |
Median |
56 |
3% |
46% |
Last Result |
57 |
11% |
43% |
|
58 |
12% |
33% |
|
59 |
19% |
21% |
|
60 |
0.7% |
2% |
|
61 |
0.4% |
0.9% |
|
62 |
0.4% |
0.5% |
|
63 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
64 |
0% |
0% |
|
Fine Gael

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
37 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
38 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
39 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
40 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
41 |
0.5% |
99.8% |
|
42 |
0.7% |
99.4% |
|
43 |
2% |
98.7% |
|
44 |
0.7% |
97% |
|
45 |
2% |
96% |
|
46 |
2% |
94% |
|
47 |
3% |
92% |
|
48 |
24% |
89% |
|
49 |
3% |
65% |
Last Result |
50 |
16% |
62% |
Median |
51 |
4% |
46% |
|
52 |
11% |
43% |
|
53 |
11% |
31% |
|
54 |
18% |
20% |
|
55 |
0.9% |
2% |
|
56 |
0.7% |
0.9% |
|
57 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
58 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
59 |
0% |
0% |
|
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
36 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
37 |
0.3% |
99.8% |
|
38 |
11% |
99.5% |
|
39 |
0.9% |
89% |
|
40 |
0.5% |
88% |
|
41 |
3% |
88% |
|
42 |
6% |
84% |
|
43 |
2% |
79% |
|
44 |
23% |
77% |
|
45 |
6% |
54% |
|
46 |
20% |
48% |
Median |
47 |
4% |
28% |
|
48 |
1.5% |
24% |
|
49 |
18% |
23% |
|
50 |
1.4% |
5% |
|
51 |
1.2% |
3% |
Last Result |
52 |
1.3% |
2% |
|
53 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
|
54 |
0.4% |
0.5% |
|
55 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
56 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
|
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Red C
- Commissioner(s): RTÉ
- Fieldwork period: 24 May 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 2652
- Simulations done: 524,288
- Error estimate: 1.04%