Opinion Poll by Red C for RTÉ, 24 May 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael 25.5% 26.2% 24.9–27.1% 24.6–27.4% 24.4–27.7% 23.8–28.2%
Fianna Fáil 24.3% 23.2% 22.0–24.1% 21.7–24.4% 21.4–24.6% 20.9–25.1%
Sinn Féin 13.8% 15.1% 14.2–15.9% 13.9–16.2% 13.7–16.4% 13.3–16.9%
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2.7% 12.1% 11.2–12.9% 11.0–13.1% 10.8–13.3% 10.5–13.7%
Independent 15.9% 9.4% 8.6–10.0% 8.4–10.3% 8.2–10.5% 7.9–10.8%
Labour Party 6.6% 5.1% 4.5–5.6% 4.4–5.8% 4.3–5.9% 4.0–6.2%
Social Democrats 3.0% 3.0% 2.6–3.5% 2.5–3.6% 2.4–3.7% 2.2–4.0%
Solidarity–People Before Profit 3.9% 2.0% 1.7–2.4% 1.6–2.5% 1.5–2.6% 1.4–2.8%
Independents 4 Change 1.5% 1.2% 0.9–1.5% 0.9–1.6% 0.8–1.6% 0.7–1.8%
Renua Ireland 2.2% 0.3% 0.8–1.3% 0.7–1.4% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael 49 50 47–54 45–54 43–54 41–56
Fianna Fáil 44 41 35–45 35–45 35–47 34–48
Sinn Féin 23 31 31–32 28–33 28–34 25–35
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2 19 17–23 17–23 17–23 17–25
Independent 19 7 3–9 3–11 3–11 3–14
Labour Party 7 5 3–7 1–8 1–9 1–10
Social Democrats 3 3 3–5 3–5 3–5 3–6
Solidarity–People Before Profit 6 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Independents 4 Change 4 3 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Renua Ireland 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–3

Fine Gael

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fine Gael page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0% 99.9%  
39 0% 99.9%  
40 0.1% 99.9%  
41 0.5% 99.8%  
42 0.7% 99.4%  
43 2% 98.7%  
44 0.7% 97%  
45 2% 96%  
46 2% 94%  
47 3% 92%  
48 24% 89%  
49 3% 65% Last Result
50 16% 62% Median
51 4% 46%  
52 11% 43%  
53 11% 31%  
54 18% 20%  
55 0.9% 2%  
56 0.7% 0.9%  
57 0.2% 0.2%  
58 0% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fianna Fáil page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.4% 100%  
33 0.1% 99.6%  
34 0.1% 99.5%  
35 12% 99.4%  
36 3% 88%  
37 15% 85%  
38 2% 70%  
39 11% 68%  
40 7% 57%  
41 23% 50% Median
42 2% 27%  
43 1.3% 25%  
44 2% 24% Last Result
45 20% 22%  
46 0.3% 3%  
47 1.0% 3%  
48 1.3% 1.5%  
49 0% 0.2%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  

Sinn Féin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinn Féin page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.4% 99.8%  
26 0.4% 99.5%  
27 0.4% 99.1%  
28 4% 98.7%  
29 0.9% 95%  
30 0.7% 94%  
31 56% 93% Median
32 29% 37%  
33 4% 8%  
34 3% 4%  
35 0.5% 0.5%  
36 0% 0%  

Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party/Comhaontas Glas page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0.1% 100%  
16 0.1% 99.9%  
17 24% 99.8%  
18 14% 76%  
19 37% 61% Median
20 2% 24%  
21 3% 22%  
22 5% 20%  
23 13% 14%  
24 0.4% 2%  
25 1.0% 1.4%  
26 0.3% 0.5%  
27 0.2% 0.2%  
28 0% 0%  

Independent

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independent page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 31% 100%  
4 1.0% 69%  
5 0.4% 68%  
6 5% 68%  
7 19% 63% Median
8 24% 44%  
9 13% 20%  
10 1.1% 7%  
11 4% 6%  
12 1.2% 2%  
13 0.2% 0.8%  
14 0.2% 0.6%  
15 0.1% 0.4%  
16 0.2% 0.3%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 5% 100%  
2 4% 95%  
3 12% 91%  
4 21% 79%  
5 37% 57% Median
6 2% 20%  
7 13% 18% Last Result
8 2% 5%  
9 2% 3%  
10 0.4% 0.7%  
11 0.1% 0.2%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Social Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Social Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 76% 100% Last Result, Median
4 4% 24%  
5 20% 20%  
6 0.7% 0.7%  
7 0% 0%  

Solidarity–People Before Profit

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Solidarity–People Before Profit page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 14% 100%  
1 86% 86% Median
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0% Last Result

Independents 4 Change

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents 4 Change page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 0.1% 99.9%  
2 48% 99.8%  
3 52% 52% Median
4 0% 0% Last Result

Renua Ireland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Renua Ireland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 11% 100% Last Result
1 89% 89% Median
2 0.3% 0.8%  
3 0.6% 0.6%  
4 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael – Fianna Fáil 93 92 98.9% 87–95 85–95 83–95 80–98
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party – Social Democrats 61 79 45% 72–82 71–82 71–84 67–85
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party 58 75 2% 69–78 68–79 67–79 64–82
Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin 67 72 0.1% 67–76 67–76 65–78 64–79
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 51 69 0% 65–75 64–75 63–75 60–77
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party – Social Democrats 56 68 0% 64–70 64–72 64–73 63–76
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party 53 64 0% 61–66 61–69 60–70 58–73
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 46 60 0% 55–62 55–64 55–65 54–70
Fine Gael – Labour Party 56 55 0% 50–59 49–59 49–59 44–62
Fine Gael 49 50 0% 47–54 45–54 43–54 41–56
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party 51 45 0% 38–49 38–49 38–51 38–54

Fine Gael – Fianna Fáil

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 99.9%  
80 1.0% 99.9%  
81 0.4% 98.9% Majority
82 0.9% 98.5%  
83 0.9% 98%  
84 1.1% 97%  
85 2% 96%  
86 3% 94%  
87 24% 91%  
88 1.0% 67%  
89 6% 66%  
90 5% 61%  
91 4% 56% Median
92 11% 52%  
93 20% 42% Last Result
94 4% 22%  
95 16% 18%  
96 0.7% 2%  
97 0.4% 0.9%  
98 0.3% 0.5%  
99 0.1% 0.2%  
100 0.1% 0.1%  
101 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party – Social Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100% Last Result
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100%  
66 0.4% 100%  
67 0.2% 99.6%  
68 0.1% 99.4%  
69 0.1% 99.3%  
70 1.0% 99.1%  
71 6% 98%  
72 18% 92%  
73 0.7% 74%  
74 2% 73%  
75 4% 71%  
76 2% 67%  
77 2% 65% Median
78 11% 63%  
79 6% 53%  
80 1.3% 46%  
81 26% 45% Majority
82 15% 19%  
83 0.9% 4%  
84 2% 3%  
85 0.4% 0.9%  
86 0.2% 0.5%  
87 0.3% 0.3%  
88 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100% Last Result
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 100%  
61 0% 100%  
62 0% 100%  
63 0.4% 100%  
64 0.3% 99.6%  
65 0.1% 99.3%  
66 0.1% 99.2%  
67 3% 99.1%  
68 5% 97%  
69 18% 92%  
70 0.6% 73%  
71 3% 73%  
72 4% 70%  
73 3% 66%  
74 6% 64% Median
75 9% 57%  
76 3% 48%  
77 13% 45%  
78 26% 32%  
79 4% 6%  
80 0.3% 2%  
81 1.0% 2% Majority
82 0.5% 0.8%  
83 0.1% 0.3%  
84 0.1% 0.1%  
85 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.1% 100%  
61 0% 99.9%  
62 0.1% 99.8%  
63 0.1% 99.8%  
64 1.1% 99.6%  
65 3% 98.5%  
66 0.2% 95%  
67 12% 95% Last Result
68 2% 83%  
69 9% 81%  
70 11% 72%  
71 10% 61%  
72 17% 51% Median
73 7% 34%  
74 2% 26%  
75 2% 24%  
76 19% 23%  
77 0.4% 3%  
78 1.4% 3%  
79 1.2% 2%  
80 0.3% 0.4%  
81 0% 0.1% Majority
82 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100% Last Result
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 100%  
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 100%  
56 0% 100%  
57 0% 100%  
58 0% 99.9%  
59 0.1% 99.9%  
60 0.4% 99.8%  
61 0.6% 99.4%  
62 0.3% 98.7%  
63 2% 98%  
64 1.2% 96%  
65 21% 95%  
66 3% 74%  
67 7% 72%  
68 9% 64%  
69 6% 55% Median
70 0.8% 49%  
71 2% 49%  
72 16% 47%  
73 16% 31%  
74 2% 14%  
75 10% 12%  
76 0.7% 2%  
77 0.5% 0.9%  
78 0.2% 0.5%  
79 0.1% 0.2%  
80 0.1% 0.1%  
81 0% 0% Majority

Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party – Social Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0% 100% Last Result
57 0% 100%  
58 0% 100%  
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0% 99.8%  
61 0.1% 99.8%  
62 0.2% 99.7%  
63 0.8% 99.5%  
64 15% 98.7%  
65 10% 83%  
66 4% 73%  
67 4% 69%  
68 29% 65% Median
69 25% 36%  
70 2% 11%  
71 3% 8%  
72 2% 6%  
73 1.3% 3%  
74 0.4% 2%  
75 0.9% 2%  
76 0.5% 0.8%  
77 0.2% 0.3%  
78 0.1% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0% 100% Last Result
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 100%  
56 0.2% 99.9%  
57 0.1% 99.8%  
58 0.3% 99.7%  
59 1.5% 99.4%  
60 1.4% 98%  
61 15% 97%  
62 10% 82%  
63 15% 72%  
64 8% 56%  
65 17% 49% Median
66 22% 31%  
67 2% 9%  
68 2% 8%  
69 3% 6%  
70 0.8% 3%  
71 0.4% 2%  
72 0.8% 2%  
73 0.6% 0.7%  
74 0.1% 0.1%  
75 0% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0% 100% Last Result
47 0% 100%  
48 0% 100%  
49 0% 100%  
50 0% 100%  
51 0.1% 100%  
52 0.2% 99.9%  
53 0.1% 99.7%  
54 1.4% 99.5%  
55 9% 98%  
56 1.1% 89%  
57 3% 88%  
58 27% 85%  
59 8% 58%  
60 23% 50% Median
61 2% 28%  
62 19% 26%  
63 1.4% 7%  
64 1.5% 6%  
65 2% 4%  
66 0.8% 2%  
67 0.3% 2%  
68 0.4% 1.3%  
69 0.2% 1.0%  
70 0.8% 0.8%  
71 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.5% 100%  
45 0.5% 99.5%  
46 0.5% 99.0%  
47 0.1% 98%  
48 0.4% 98%  
49 4% 98%  
50 4% 94%  
51 1.1% 90%  
52 20% 88%  
53 5% 69%  
54 2% 64%  
55 16% 62% Median
56 3% 46% Last Result
57 11% 43%  
58 12% 33%  
59 19% 21%  
60 0.7% 2%  
61 0.4% 0.9%  
62 0.4% 0.5%  
63 0% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Fine Gael

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0% 99.9%  
39 0% 99.9%  
40 0.1% 99.9%  
41 0.5% 99.8%  
42 0.7% 99.4%  
43 2% 98.7%  
44 0.7% 97%  
45 2% 96%  
46 2% 94%  
47 3% 92%  
48 24% 89%  
49 3% 65% Last Result
50 16% 62% Median
51 4% 46%  
52 11% 43%  
53 11% 31%  
54 18% 20%  
55 0.9% 2%  
56 0.7% 0.9%  
57 0.2% 0.2%  
58 0% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.2% 100%  
37 0.3% 99.8%  
38 11% 99.5%  
39 0.9% 89%  
40 0.5% 88%  
41 3% 88%  
42 6% 84%  
43 2% 79%  
44 23% 77%  
45 6% 54%  
46 20% 48% Median
47 4% 28%  
48 1.5% 24%  
49 18% 23%  
50 1.4% 5%  
51 1.2% 3% Last Result
52 1.3% 2%  
53 0.1% 0.6%  
54 0.4% 0.5%  
55 0.1% 0.2%  
56 0.1% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations