Opinion Poll by Behaviour and Attitudes for The Sunday Times, 31 May–11 June 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fianna Fáil | 24.3% | 28.5% | 26.5–30.3% | 25.9–30.9% | 25.5–31.4% | 24.6–32.3% |
| Fine Gael | 25.5% | 23.4% | 21.5–25.1% | 21.0–25.6% | 20.6–26.1% | 19.8–27.0% |
| Sinn Féin | 13.8% | 12.2% | 10.8–13.6% | 10.4–14.0% | 10.1–14.4% | 9.5–15.2% |
| Green Party/Comhaontas Glas | 2.7% | 11.2% | 9.9–12.6% | 9.5–13.0% | 9.2–13.3% | 8.7–14.1% |
| Independent | 15.9% | 11.2% | 9.9–12.6% | 9.5–13.0% | 9.2–13.3% | 8.7–14.1% |
| Labour Party | 6.6% | 5.0% | 4.2–6.1% | 3.9–6.4% | 3.7–6.6% | 3.4–7.2% |
| Solidarity–People Before Profit | 3.9% | 2.0% | 1.5–2.7% | 1.4–3.0% | 1.3–3.1% | 1.1–3.5% |
| Independents 4 Change | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.1–2.1% | 0.9–2.3% | 0.8–2.5% | 0.7–2.8% |
| Social Democrats | 3.0% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.6% | 0.6–1.7% | 0.5–1.9% | 0.4–2.2% |
| Renua Ireland | 2.2% | 0.3% | 0.7–1.6% | 0.6–1.7% | 0.5–1.9% | 0.4–2.2% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fianna Fáil | 44 | 57 | 53–59 | 53–59 | 51–60 | 47–61 |
| Fine Gael | 49 | 46 | 41–50 | 40–51 | 38–54 | 36–56 |
| Sinn Féin | 23 | 22 | 18–28 | 16–28 | 16–30 | 13–31 |
| Green Party/Comhaontas Glas | 2 | 16 | 14–20 | 14–23 | 13–25 | 11–26 |
| Independent | 19 | 11 | 6–14 | 6–15 | 5–15 | 3–16 |
| Labour Party | 7 | 3 | 1–7 | 1–8 | 0–8 | 0–10 |
| Solidarity–People Before Profit | 6 | 0 | 0–2 | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–5 |
| Independents 4 Change | 4 | 4 | 1–5 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–5 |
| Social Democrats | 3 | 2 | 0–2 | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–3 |
| Renua Ireland | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–2 |
Fianna Fáil
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fianna Fáil page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 44 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 45 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 46 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 47 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 48 | 0.1% | 99.4% | |
| 49 | 0.6% | 99.3% | |
| 50 | 0.6% | 98.7% | |
| 51 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 52 | 2% | 97% | |
| 53 | 10% | 95% | |
| 54 | 9% | 85% | |
| 55 | 12% | 76% | |
| 56 | 10% | 64% | |
| 57 | 23% | 54% | Median |
| 58 | 11% | 32% | |
| 59 | 16% | 20% | |
| 60 | 3% | 4% | |
| 61 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% |
Fine Gael
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fine Gael page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 33 | 0% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 35 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 36 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 37 | 1.3% | 99.4% | |
| 38 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 39 | 0.7% | 97% | |
| 40 | 3% | 96% | |
| 41 | 4% | 93% | |
| 42 | 5% | 89% | |
| 43 | 3% | 84% | |
| 44 | 8% | 81% | |
| 45 | 16% | 74% | |
| 46 | 25% | 58% | Median |
| 47 | 7% | 33% | |
| 48 | 4% | 26% | |
| 49 | 7% | 22% | Last Result |
| 50 | 9% | 15% | |
| 51 | 1.1% | 6% | |
| 52 | 1.1% | 5% | |
| 53 | 0.5% | 4% | |
| 54 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 55 | 2% | 2% | |
| 56 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 57 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 58 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% |
Sinn Féin
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinn Féin page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 12 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 13 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 14 | 0.4% | 99.4% | |
| 15 | 0.9% | 98.9% | |
| 16 | 3% | 98% | |
| 17 | 3% | 95% | |
| 18 | 6% | 92% | |
| 19 | 12% | 86% | |
| 20 | 7% | 74% | |
| 21 | 8% | 67% | |
| 22 | 26% | 59% | Median |
| 23 | 9% | 33% | Last Result |
| 24 | 4% | 24% | |
| 25 | 6% | 20% | |
| 26 | 2% | 14% | |
| 27 | 1.2% | 12% | |
| 28 | 7% | 11% | |
| 29 | 0.6% | 3% | |
| 30 | 2% | 3% | |
| 31 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 32 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 33 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% |
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party/Comhaontas Glas page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 11 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 12 | 0.7% | 99.0% | |
| 13 | 3% | 98% | |
| 14 | 8% | 96% | |
| 15 | 13% | 88% | |
| 16 | 30% | 75% | Median |
| 17 | 15% | 45% | |
| 18 | 12% | 30% | |
| 19 | 2% | 18% | |
| 20 | 7% | 16% | |
| 21 | 2% | 9% | |
| 22 | 2% | 7% | |
| 23 | 1.0% | 6% | |
| 24 | 2% | 5% | |
| 25 | 2% | 3% | |
| 26 | 0.9% | 1.1% | |
| 27 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% |
Independent
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independent page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 0.8% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0.2% | 99.2% | |
| 5 | 3% | 99.0% | |
| 6 | 13% | 96% | |
| 7 | 11% | 84% | |
| 8 | 2% | 72% | |
| 9 | 4% | 70% | |
| 10 | 13% | 66% | |
| 11 | 7% | 53% | Median |
| 12 | 18% | 46% | |
| 13 | 12% | 28% | |
| 14 | 8% | 16% | |
| 15 | 6% | 8% | |
| 16 | 2% | 2% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Labour Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3% | 100% | |
| 1 | 14% | 97% | |
| 2 | 26% | 83% | |
| 3 | 14% | 56% | Median |
| 4 | 8% | 42% | |
| 5 | 7% | 34% | |
| 6 | 16% | 27% | |
| 7 | 5% | 11% | Last Result |
| 8 | 4% | 7% | |
| 9 | 2% | 2% | |
| 10 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 12 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Solidarity–People Before Profit
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Solidarity–People Before Profit page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 76% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 10% | 24% | |
| 2 | 4% | 14% | |
| 3 | 7% | 10% | |
| 4 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 5 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 6 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Independents 4 Change
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents 4 Change page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7% | 100% | |
| 1 | 12% | 93% | |
| 2 | 5% | 81% | |
| 3 | 3% | 76% | |
| 4 | 62% | 73% | Last Result, Median |
| 5 | 11% | 11% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Social Democrats
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Social Democrats page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 41% | 100% | |
| 1 | 8% | 59% | |
| 2 | 43% | 51% | Median |
| 3 | 8% | 8% | Last Result |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Renua Ireland
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Renua Ireland page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 98% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 2 | 1.0% | 1.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fianna Fáil – Fine Gael | 93 | 103 | 100% | 96–108 | 94–109 | 93–111 | 88–113 |
| Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party – Social Democrats | 56 | 78 | 32% | 73–83 | 72–85 | 70–86 | 68–88 |
| Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party | 53 | 77 | 19% | 71–82 | 70–84 | 68–85 | 66–88 |
| Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin | 67 | 79 | 28% | 74–81 | 72–83 | 71–84 | 68–87 |
| Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas | 46 | 73 | 3% | 69–78 | 68–79 | 67–81 | 64–83 |
| Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party – Social Democrats | 61 | 68 | 0.1% | 63–72 | 62–73 | 59–74 | 58–77 |
| Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party | 58 | 67 | 0.1% | 61–71 | 60–72 | 59–73 | 56–77 |
| Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas | 51 | 62 | 0% | 59–67 | 58–69 | 56–71 | 53–73 |
| Fianna Fáil – Labour Party | 51 | 60 | 0% | 55–64 | 55–65 | 54–66 | 51–68 |
| Fine Gael – Labour Party | 56 | 50 | 0% | 44–54 | 43–55 | 41–56 | 38–58 |
| Fine Gael | 49 | 46 | 0% | 41–50 | 40–51 | 38–54 | 36–56 |
Fianna Fáil – Fine Gael
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 85 | 0% | 100% | |
| 86 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 87 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 88 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 89 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 90 | 0.3% | 99.3% | |
| 91 | 0.4% | 99.0% | |
| 92 | 0.9% | 98.7% | |
| 93 | 1.1% | 98% | Last Result |
| 94 | 4% | 97% | |
| 95 | 2% | 93% | |
| 96 | 3% | 91% | |
| 97 | 1.4% | 88% | |
| 98 | 9% | 87% | |
| 99 | 8% | 78% | |
| 100 | 5% | 70% | |
| 101 | 4% | 65% | |
| 102 | 6% | 61% | |
| 103 | 10% | 54% | Median |
| 104 | 17% | 45% | |
| 105 | 8% | 28% | |
| 106 | 8% | 19% | |
| 107 | 1.0% | 11% | |
| 108 | 0.6% | 10% | |
| 109 | 7% | 10% | |
| 110 | 0.2% | 3% | |
| 111 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 112 | 2% | 2% | |
| 113 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 114 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 115 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 116 | 0% | 0% |
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party – Social Democrats
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 56 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 57 | 0% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0% | 100% | |
| 63 | 0% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0% | 100% | |
| 65 | 0% | 100% | |
| 66 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 67 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 68 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 69 | 0.3% | 99.3% | |
| 70 | 3% | 99.0% | |
| 71 | 0.7% | 96% | |
| 72 | 2% | 96% | |
| 73 | 11% | 93% | |
| 74 | 8% | 82% | |
| 75 | 9% | 74% | |
| 76 | 5% | 65% | |
| 77 | 3% | 60% | |
| 78 | 8% | 57% | Median |
| 79 | 8% | 49% | |
| 80 | 9% | 41% | |
| 81 | 14% | 32% | Majority |
| 82 | 7% | 18% | |
| 83 | 1.3% | 11% | |
| 84 | 2% | 9% | |
| 85 | 3% | 8% | |
| 86 | 3% | 5% | |
| 87 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 88 | 1.2% | 1.4% | |
| 89 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 90 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 91 | 0% | 0% |
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 53 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 54 | 0% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0% | 100% | |
| 56 | 0% | 100% | |
| 57 | 0% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0% | 100% | |
| 63 | 0% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0% | 100% | |
| 65 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 66 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 67 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 68 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 69 | 1.1% | 97% | |
| 70 | 1.5% | 96% | |
| 71 | 7% | 94% | |
| 72 | 1.2% | 87% | |
| 73 | 11% | 86% | |
| 74 | 10% | 75% | |
| 75 | 4% | 65% | |
| 76 | 6% | 61% | Median |
| 77 | 8% | 55% | |
| 78 | 9% | 47% | |
| 79 | 16% | 38% | |
| 80 | 4% | 22% | |
| 81 | 3% | 19% | Majority |
| 82 | 7% | 15% | |
| 83 | 2% | 8% | |
| 84 | 3% | 6% | |
| 85 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 86 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 87 | 0.6% | 1.2% | |
| 88 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0% |
Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 63 | 0% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 65 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 66 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 67 | 0.1% | 99.7% | Last Result |
| 68 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 69 | 0.6% | 99.4% | |
| 70 | 1.0% | 98.8% | |
| 71 | 1.3% | 98% | |
| 72 | 2% | 97% | |
| 73 | 4% | 95% | |
| 74 | 8% | 91% | |
| 75 | 4% | 82% | |
| 76 | 12% | 78% | |
| 77 | 4% | 66% | |
| 78 | 10% | 62% | |
| 79 | 9% | 52% | Median |
| 80 | 16% | 43% | |
| 81 | 18% | 28% | Majority |
| 82 | 2% | 10% | |
| 83 | 4% | 8% | |
| 84 | 2% | 4% | |
| 85 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 86 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 87 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 88 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 89 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 90 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 91 | 0% | 0% |
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 46 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 47 | 0% | 100% | |
| 48 | 0% | 100% | |
| 49 | 0% | 100% | |
| 50 | 0% | 100% | |
| 51 | 0% | 100% | |
| 52 | 0% | 100% | |
| 53 | 0% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0% | 100% | |
| 56 | 0% | 100% | |
| 57 | 0% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 63 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 64 | 0.4% | 99.5% | |
| 65 | 0.2% | 99.1% | |
| 66 | 1.2% | 98.9% | |
| 67 | 2% | 98% | |
| 68 | 3% | 96% | |
| 69 | 9% | 93% | |
| 70 | 4% | 83% | |
| 71 | 10% | 80% | |
| 72 | 7% | 69% | |
| 73 | 26% | 62% | Median |
| 74 | 5% | 36% | |
| 75 | 7% | 31% | |
| 76 | 4% | 24% | |
| 77 | 9% | 20% | |
| 78 | 3% | 11% | |
| 79 | 3% | 8% | |
| 80 | 2% | 5% | |
| 81 | 2% | 3% | Majority |
| 82 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 83 | 0.9% | 1.2% | |
| 84 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 85 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0% |
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party – Social Democrats
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 55 | 0% | 100% | |
| 56 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 57 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 58 | 0.9% | 99.7% | |
| 59 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 60 | 0.6% | 97% | |
| 61 | 0.9% | 96% | Last Result |
| 62 | 1.4% | 96% | |
| 63 | 6% | 94% | |
| 64 | 6% | 88% | |
| 65 | 10% | 82% | |
| 66 | 11% | 72% | |
| 67 | 2% | 61% | Median |
| 68 | 14% | 59% | |
| 69 | 24% | 45% | |
| 70 | 4% | 21% | |
| 71 | 3% | 17% | |
| 72 | 5% | 15% | |
| 73 | 7% | 10% | |
| 74 | 2% | 3% | |
| 75 | 0.5% | 1.5% | |
| 76 | 0.3% | 1.0% | |
| 77 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 78 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 80 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0.1% | Majority |
| 82 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% |
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 54 | 0% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 56 | 0.9% | 99.8% | |
| 57 | 0.5% | 98.9% | |
| 58 | 0.3% | 98% | Last Result |
| 59 | 2% | 98% | |
| 60 | 1.4% | 96% | |
| 61 | 6% | 95% | |
| 62 | 2% | 89% | |
| 63 | 8% | 87% | |
| 64 | 9% | 78% | |
| 65 | 5% | 70% | Median |
| 66 | 15% | 65% | |
| 67 | 15% | 50% | |
| 68 | 4% | 36% | |
| 69 | 13% | 31% | |
| 70 | 5% | 19% | |
| 71 | 7% | 14% | |
| 72 | 3% | 7% | |
| 73 | 2% | 4% | |
| 74 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 75 | 0.4% | 1.1% | |
| 76 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 77 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 78 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0.1% | Majority |
| 82 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% |
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50 | 0% | 100% | |
| 51 | 0% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 52 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 53 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 54 | 0.7% | 99.3% | |
| 55 | 0.8% | 98.6% | |
| 56 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 57 | 0.8% | 97% | |
| 58 | 4% | 96% | |
| 59 | 9% | 92% | |
| 60 | 4% | 83% | |
| 61 | 20% | 79% | |
| 62 | 10% | 59% | Median |
| 63 | 8% | 48% | |
| 64 | 8% | 40% | |
| 65 | 9% | 32% | |
| 66 | 11% | 24% | |
| 67 | 5% | 12% | |
| 68 | 2% | 7% | |
| 69 | 1.2% | 5% | |
| 70 | 1.1% | 4% | |
| 71 | 2% | 3% | |
| 72 | 0.2% | 1.0% | |
| 73 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 74 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 75 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 76 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 77 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% |
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 47 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 48 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 49 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 50 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 51 | 0.2% | 99.7% | Last Result |
| 52 | 0.4% | 99.5% | |
| 53 | 0.8% | 99.1% | |
| 54 | 3% | 98% | |
| 55 | 11% | 96% | |
| 56 | 6% | 85% | |
| 57 | 6% | 79% | |
| 58 | 11% | 73% | |
| 59 | 11% | 62% | |
| 60 | 4% | 51% | Median |
| 61 | 9% | 47% | |
| 62 | 11% | 37% | |
| 63 | 8% | 27% | |
| 64 | 13% | 19% | |
| 65 | 1.4% | 6% | |
| 66 | 3% | 5% | |
| 67 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 68 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 69 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% |
Fine Gael – Labour Party
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | 0% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 37 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 38 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 39 | 0.4% | 99.2% | |
| 40 | 0.7% | 98.8% | |
| 41 | 2% | 98% | |
| 42 | 0.5% | 96% | |
| 43 | 2% | 96% | |
| 44 | 4% | 93% | |
| 45 | 1.5% | 89% | |
| 46 | 5% | 88% | |
| 47 | 16% | 83% | |
| 48 | 8% | 67% | |
| 49 | 8% | 59% | Median |
| 50 | 9% | 51% | |
| 51 | 4% | 42% | |
| 52 | 16% | 38% | |
| 53 | 10% | 22% | |
| 54 | 3% | 11% | |
| 55 | 5% | 9% | |
| 56 | 2% | 4% | Last Result |
| 57 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 58 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 59 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 60 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 61 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% |
Fine Gael
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 33 | 0% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 35 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 36 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 37 | 1.3% | 99.4% | |
| 38 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 39 | 0.7% | 97% | |
| 40 | 3% | 96% | |
| 41 | 4% | 93% | |
| 42 | 5% | 89% | |
| 43 | 3% | 84% | |
| 44 | 8% | 81% | |
| 45 | 16% | 74% | |
| 46 | 25% | 58% | Median |
| 47 | 7% | 33% | |
| 48 | 4% | 26% | |
| 49 | 7% | 22% | Last Result |
| 50 | 9% | 15% | |
| 51 | 1.1% | 6% | |
| 52 | 1.1% | 5% | |
| 53 | 0.5% | 4% | |
| 54 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 55 | 2% | 2% | |
| 56 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 57 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 58 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Behaviour and Attitudes
- Commissioner(s): The Sunday Times
- Fieldwork period: 31 May–11 June 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 894
- Simulations done: 1,048,575
- Error estimate: 0.93%