Opinion Poll by Behaviour and Attitudes for The Sunday Times, 4–16 July 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fianna Fáil | 24.3% | 30.8% | 28.7–32.7% | 28.2–33.2% | 27.7–33.7% | 26.8–34.7% |
| Fine Gael | 25.5% | 26.7% | 24.7–28.5% | 24.2–29.1% | 23.8–29.5% | 22.9–30.5% |
| Sinn Féin | 13.8% | 14.4% | 12.9–15.9% | 12.5–16.3% | 12.1–16.7% | 11.5–17.5% |
| Green Party/Comhaontas Glas | 2.7% | 7.2% | 6.2–8.4% | 5.9–8.8% | 5.7–9.1% | 5.2–9.7% |
| Independent | 15.9% | 6.9% | 5.9–8.1% | 5.6–8.4% | 5.4–8.7% | 5.0–9.3% |
| Labour Party | 6.6% | 5.1% | 4.3–6.2% | 4.0–6.5% | 3.8–6.7% | 3.5–7.3% |
| Solidarity–People Before Profit | 3.9% | 2.0% | 1.5–2.7% | 1.4–2.9% | 1.3–3.1% | 1.1–3.5% |
| Social Democrats | 3.0% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.6% | 0.6–1.7% | 0.5–1.9% | 0.4–2.2% |
| Independents 4 Change | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.6–1.4% | 0.5–1.6% | 0.4–1.7% | 0.3–2.0% |
| Renua Ireland | 2.2% | 0.3% | 0.7–1.6% | 0.6–1.7% | 0.5–1.9% | 0.4–2.2% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fianna Fáil | 44 | 58 | 56–60 | 54–60 | 53–60 | 52–61 |
| Fine Gael | 49 | 53 | 48–58 | 48–60 | 47–60 | 46–62 |
| Sinn Féin | 23 | 28 | 25–34 | 25–34 | 24–36 | 20–37 |
| Green Party/Comhaontas Glas | 2 | 8 | 5–13 | 5–15 | 5–16 | 4–17 |
| Independent | 19 | 3 | 3–4 | 3–5 | 2–5 | 1–6 |
| Labour Party | 7 | 4 | 1–7 | 0–7 | 0–9 | 0–12 |
| Solidarity–People Before Profit | 6 | 1 | 0–2 | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–5 |
| Social Democrats | 3 | 2 | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–3 |
| Independents 4 Change | 4 | 2 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 |
| Renua Ireland | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
Fianna Fáil
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fianna Fáil page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 44 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 45 | 0% | 100% | |
| 46 | 0% | 100% | |
| 47 | 0% | 100% | |
| 48 | 0% | 100% | |
| 49 | 0% | 100% | |
| 50 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 51 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 52 | 0.9% | 99.6% | |
| 53 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 54 | 3% | 97% | |
| 55 | 3% | 94% | |
| 56 | 13% | 91% | |
| 57 | 6% | 78% | |
| 58 | 39% | 72% | Median |
| 59 | 19% | 33% | |
| 60 | 12% | 14% | |
| 61 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 62 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 63 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% |
Fine Gael
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fine Gael page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 43 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 44 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 45 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 46 | 2% | 99.6% | |
| 47 | 3% | 98% | |
| 48 | 8% | 95% | |
| 49 | 2% | 87% | Last Result |
| 50 | 4% | 85% | |
| 51 | 8% | 80% | |
| 52 | 16% | 72% | |
| 53 | 17% | 56% | Median |
| 54 | 4% | 39% | |
| 55 | 5% | 35% | |
| 56 | 10% | 31% | |
| 57 | 4% | 21% | |
| 58 | 7% | 17% | |
| 59 | 4% | 10% | |
| 60 | 4% | 6% | |
| 61 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 62 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 63 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 64 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 65 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 66 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% |
Sinn Féin
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinn Féin page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 19 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 20 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 21 | 0.4% | 99.4% | |
| 22 | 0.4% | 99.0% | |
| 23 | 0.7% | 98.6% | Last Result |
| 24 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 25 | 7% | 97% | |
| 26 | 6% | 90% | |
| 27 | 26% | 84% | |
| 28 | 15% | 58% | Median |
| 29 | 11% | 43% | |
| 30 | 9% | 32% | |
| 31 | 6% | 23% | |
| 32 | 2% | 17% | |
| 33 | 3% | 15% | |
| 34 | 8% | 13% | |
| 35 | 1.3% | 4% | |
| 36 | 2% | 3% | |
| 37 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% |
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party/Comhaontas Glas page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 3 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 4 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 5 | 15% | 98% | |
| 6 | 10% | 83% | |
| 7 | 13% | 73% | |
| 8 | 18% | 60% | Median |
| 9 | 15% | 42% | |
| 10 | 7% | 26% | |
| 11 | 3% | 20% | |
| 12 | 4% | 16% | |
| 13 | 2% | 12% | |
| 14 | 3% | 10% | |
| 15 | 2% | 7% | |
| 16 | 4% | 5% | |
| 17 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% |
Independent
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independent page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 1 | 1.0% | 99.8% | |
| 2 | 1.4% | 98.9% | |
| 3 | 80% | 97% | Median |
| 4 | 8% | 17% | |
| 5 | 8% | 9% | |
| 6 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 7 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 8 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Labour Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6% | 100% | |
| 1 | 15% | 94% | |
| 2 | 13% | 79% | |
| 3 | 10% | 66% | |
| 4 | 11% | 56% | Median |
| 5 | 11% | 45% | |
| 6 | 23% | 34% | |
| 7 | 7% | 11% | Last Result |
| 8 | 2% | 5% | |
| 9 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 10 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 11 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 12 | 0.7% | 1.1% | |
| 13 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 14 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
Solidarity–People Before Profit
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Solidarity–People Before Profit page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 41% | 100% | |
| 1 | 24% | 59% | Median |
| 2 | 29% | 35% | |
| 3 | 4% | 6% | |
| 4 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 5 | 0.8% | 0.9% | |
| 6 | 0.2% | 0.2% | Last Result |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Social Democrats
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Social Democrats page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 19% | 100% | |
| 1 | 30% | 81% | |
| 2 | 23% | 51% | Median |
| 3 | 28% | 28% | Last Result |
| 4 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Independents 4 Change
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents 4 Change page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 37% | 100% | |
| 1 | 12% | 63% | |
| 2 | 23% | 51% | Median |
| 3 | 2% | 29% | |
| 4 | 27% | 27% | Last Result |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Renua Ireland
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Renua Ireland page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 98% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 2% | 2% | |
| 2 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fianna Fáil – Fine Gael | 93 | 110 | 100% | 107–116 | 106–117 | 104–118 | 102–120 |
| Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin | 67 | 86 | 98% | 83–92 | 82–93 | 81–94 | 77–95 |
| Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party – Social Democrats | 56 | 72 | 3% | 67–77 | 66–79 | 64–81 | 62–82 |
| Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party | 53 | 70 | 2% | 66–76 | 65–78 | 63–80 | 61–81 |
| Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas | 46 | 66 | 0% | 63–72 | 61–74 | 60–75 | 58–76 |
| Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party – Social Democrats | 61 | 69 | 0% | 63–70 | 61–72 | 60–73 | 59–77 |
| Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party | 58 | 67 | 0% | 61–70 | 59–71 | 59–72 | 57–76 |
| Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas | 51 | 62 | 0% | 57–66 | 56–68 | 54–69 | 54–72 |
| Fianna Fáil – Labour Party | 51 | 62 | 0% | 59–65 | 58–67 | 56–68 | 53–72 |
| Fine Gael – Labour Party | 56 | 58 | 0% | 52–63 | 51–64 | 49–65 | 48–68 |
| Fine Gael | 49 | 53 | 0% | 48–58 | 48–60 | 47–60 | 46–62 |
Fianna Fáil – Fine Gael
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 93 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 94 | 0% | 100% | |
| 95 | 0% | 100% | |
| 96 | 0% | 100% | |
| 97 | 0% | 100% | |
| 98 | 0% | 100% | |
| 99 | 0% | 100% | |
| 100 | 0% | 100% | |
| 101 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 102 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 103 | 0.6% | 99.4% | |
| 104 | 3% | 98.8% | |
| 105 | 1.1% | 96% | |
| 106 | 2% | 95% | |
| 107 | 5% | 93% | |
| 108 | 8% | 89% | |
| 109 | 16% | 81% | |
| 110 | 19% | 65% | |
| 111 | 7% | 46% | Median |
| 112 | 5% | 39% | |
| 113 | 4% | 33% | |
| 114 | 6% | 29% | |
| 115 | 8% | 23% | |
| 116 | 8% | 14% | |
| 117 | 2% | 7% | |
| 118 | 3% | 5% | |
| 119 | 0.5% | 1.2% | |
| 120 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 121 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 122 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 123 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 124 | 0% | 0% |
Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 67 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 68 | 0% | 100% | |
| 69 | 0% | 100% | |
| 70 | 0% | 100% | |
| 71 | 0% | 100% | |
| 72 | 0% | 100% | |
| 73 | 0% | 100% | |
| 74 | 0% | 100% | |
| 75 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 76 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 77 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 78 | 0.2% | 99.3% | |
| 79 | 0.4% | 99.1% | |
| 80 | 0.6% | 98.8% | |
| 81 | 1.2% | 98% | Majority |
| 82 | 2% | 97% | |
| 83 | 16% | 95% | |
| 84 | 6% | 79% | |
| 85 | 16% | 73% | |
| 86 | 13% | 57% | Median |
| 87 | 10% | 43% | |
| 88 | 9% | 34% | |
| 89 | 8% | 25% | |
| 90 | 2% | 18% | |
| 91 | 5% | 16% | |
| 92 | 3% | 11% | |
| 93 | 4% | 8% | |
| 94 | 3% | 3% | |
| 95 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 96 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 97 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 98 | 0% | 0% |
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party – Social Democrats
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 56 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 57 | 0% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 62 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 63 | 0.5% | 99.5% | |
| 64 | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 65 | 2% | 97% | |
| 66 | 3% | 95% | |
| 67 | 4% | 92% | |
| 68 | 3% | 88% | |
| 69 | 12% | 84% | |
| 70 | 6% | 72% | |
| 71 | 11% | 66% | |
| 72 | 20% | 55% | Median |
| 73 | 5% | 35% | |
| 74 | 6% | 30% | |
| 75 | 5% | 24% | |
| 76 | 9% | 19% | |
| 77 | 1.4% | 10% | |
| 78 | 4% | 9% | |
| 79 | 2% | 5% | |
| 80 | 0.8% | 4% | |
| 81 | 0.5% | 3% | Majority |
| 82 | 2% | 2% | |
| 83 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 84 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 85 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% |
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 53 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 54 | 0% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0% | 100% | |
| 56 | 0% | 100% | |
| 57 | 0% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 61 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 62 | 0.8% | 99.5% | |
| 63 | 1.2% | 98.7% | |
| 64 | 2% | 97% | |
| 65 | 3% | 95% | |
| 66 | 6% | 92% | |
| 67 | 4% | 86% | |
| 68 | 14% | 82% | |
| 69 | 9% | 68% | |
| 70 | 23% | 59% | Median |
| 71 | 7% | 36% | |
| 72 | 4% | 29% | |
| 73 | 9% | 25% | |
| 74 | 3% | 16% | |
| 75 | 2% | 13% | |
| 76 | 3% | 11% | |
| 77 | 2% | 8% | |
| 78 | 2% | 6% | |
| 79 | 1.0% | 4% | |
| 80 | 0.4% | 3% | |
| 81 | 2% | 2% | Majority |
| 82 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 83 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 84 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0% |
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 46 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 47 | 0% | 100% | |
| 48 | 0% | 100% | |
| 49 | 0% | 100% | |
| 50 | 0% | 100% | |
| 51 | 0% | 100% | |
| 52 | 0% | 100% | |
| 53 | 0% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 56 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 57 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 58 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 59 | 0.6% | 99.3% | |
| 60 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 61 | 3% | 96% | |
| 62 | 3% | 94% | |
| 63 | 11% | 90% | |
| 64 | 20% | 79% | |
| 65 | 4% | 59% | |
| 66 | 11% | 55% | Median |
| 67 | 14% | 45% | |
| 68 | 8% | 31% | |
| 69 | 7% | 23% | |
| 70 | 4% | 17% | |
| 71 | 1.4% | 12% | |
| 72 | 2% | 11% | |
| 73 | 0.7% | 9% | |
| 74 | 5% | 8% | |
| 75 | 2% | 3% | |
| 76 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 77 | 0% | 0% |
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party – Social Democrats
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 56 | 0% | 100% | |
| 57 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 58 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 59 | 0.4% | 99.5% | |
| 60 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 61 | 4% | 97% | Last Result |
| 62 | 2% | 93% | |
| 63 | 7% | 91% | |
| 64 | 4% | 84% | |
| 65 | 7% | 81% | |
| 66 | 8% | 74% | |
| 67 | 6% | 66% | Median |
| 68 | 9% | 60% | |
| 69 | 26% | 51% | |
| 70 | 16% | 26% | |
| 71 | 2% | 10% | |
| 72 | 4% | 8% | |
| 73 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 74 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 75 | 0.4% | 1.3% | |
| 76 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 77 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 78 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 79 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 80 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 54 | 0% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 56 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 57 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 58 | 1.5% | 99.2% | Last Result |
| 59 | 4% | 98% | |
| 60 | 2% | 93% | |
| 61 | 5% | 92% | |
| 62 | 5% | 87% | |
| 63 | 6% | 82% | |
| 64 | 7% | 76% | |
| 65 | 6% | 69% | Median |
| 66 | 7% | 63% | |
| 67 | 27% | 56% | |
| 68 | 13% | 30% | |
| 69 | 6% | 17% | |
| 70 | 4% | 11% | |
| 71 | 4% | 7% | |
| 72 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 73 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 74 | 0.4% | 1.4% | |
| 75 | 0.4% | 1.0% | |
| 76 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 77 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 78 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% |
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 51 | 0.1% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 52 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 53 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 54 | 3% | 99.6% | |
| 55 | 1.3% | 97% | |
| 56 | 4% | 95% | |
| 57 | 4% | 91% | |
| 58 | 4% | 88% | |
| 59 | 3% | 84% | |
| 60 | 6% | 81% | |
| 61 | 24% | 75% | Median |
| 62 | 10% | 51% | |
| 63 | 14% | 41% | |
| 64 | 7% | 27% | |
| 65 | 7% | 21% | |
| 66 | 4% | 14% | |
| 67 | 4% | 10% | |
| 68 | 3% | 6% | |
| 69 | 2% | 3% | |
| 70 | 0.3% | 1.1% | |
| 71 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 72 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 73 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 74 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 75 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 77 | 0% | 0% |
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 51 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 52 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 53 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 54 | 0.3% | 99.3% | |
| 55 | 1.0% | 99.0% | |
| 56 | 2% | 98% | |
| 57 | 1.2% | 97% | |
| 58 | 4% | 95% | |
| 59 | 12% | 91% | |
| 60 | 12% | 79% | |
| 61 | 10% | 67% | |
| 62 | 19% | 57% | Median |
| 63 | 14% | 38% | |
| 64 | 11% | 24% | |
| 65 | 3% | 12% | |
| 66 | 2% | 9% | |
| 67 | 4% | 7% | |
| 68 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 69 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 70 | 0.4% | 1.4% | |
| 71 | 0.2% | 1.0% | |
| 72 | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
| 73 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% |
Fine Gael – Labour Party
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 46 | 0% | 100% | |
| 47 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 48 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 49 | 2% | 99.5% | |
| 50 | 0.8% | 97% | |
| 51 | 6% | 96% | |
| 52 | 5% | 91% | |
| 53 | 8% | 86% | |
| 54 | 8% | 78% | |
| 55 | 6% | 70% | |
| 56 | 4% | 64% | Last Result |
| 57 | 5% | 59% | Median |
| 58 | 10% | 55% | |
| 59 | 14% | 44% | |
| 60 | 6% | 30% | |
| 61 | 8% | 24% | |
| 62 | 2% | 16% | |
| 63 | 8% | 14% | |
| 64 | 1.0% | 5% | |
| 65 | 3% | 4% | |
| 66 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 67 | 0.4% | 1.0% | |
| 68 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 69 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 70 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 72 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% |
Fine Gael
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 43 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 44 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 45 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 46 | 2% | 99.6% | |
| 47 | 3% | 98% | |
| 48 | 8% | 95% | |
| 49 | 2% | 87% | Last Result |
| 50 | 4% | 85% | |
| 51 | 8% | 80% | |
| 52 | 16% | 72% | |
| 53 | 17% | 56% | Median |
| 54 | 4% | 39% | |
| 55 | 5% | 35% | |
| 56 | 10% | 31% | |
| 57 | 4% | 21% | |
| 58 | 7% | 17% | |
| 59 | 4% | 10% | |
| 60 | 4% | 6% | |
| 61 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 62 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 63 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 64 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 65 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 66 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Behaviour and Attitudes
- Commissioner(s): The Sunday Times
- Fieldwork period: 4–16 July 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 898
- Simulations done: 1,048,575
- Error estimate: 2.88%