Opinion Poll by Red C for The Sunday Business Post, 5–12 September 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael 25.5% 28.9% 27.1–30.8% 26.6–31.3% 26.2–31.8% 25.3–32.7%
Fianna Fáil 24.3% 27.9% 26.1–29.8% 25.6–30.3% 25.2–30.8% 24.4–31.7%
Sinn Féin 13.8% 12.0% 10.8–13.4% 10.4–13.8% 10.1–14.2% 9.6–14.9%
Independent 15.9% 11.0% 9.8–12.4% 9.5–12.8% 9.2–13.1% 8.7–13.8%
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2.7% 7.0% 6.1–8.2% 5.8–8.5% 5.6–8.8% 5.2–9.3%
Labour Party 6.6% 6.0% 5.1–7.1% 4.9–7.4% 4.7–7.7% 4.3–8.2%
Independents 4 Change 1.5% 1.4% 1.0–2.0% 0.9–2.2% 0.8–2.3% 0.7–2.7%
Solidarity–People Before Profit 3.9% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.8% 0.4–2.1%
Social Democrats 3.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.8% 0.4–2.1%
Renua Ireland 2.2% 0.1% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7% 0.0–0.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael 49 57 52–63 51–65 50–66 47–67
Fianna Fáil 44 53 51–56 49–57 49–59 47–59
Sinn Féin 23 21 16–26 15–27 14–27 14–29
Independent 19 10 7–14 6–15 5–15 4–16
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2 6 5–10 5–11 4–13 4–15
Labour Party 7 5 3–10 2–12 1–13 1–15
Independents 4 Change 4 4 1–4 0–5 0–5 0–5
Solidarity–People Before Profit 6 0 0 0 0 0–1
Social Democrats 3 2 0–3 0–3 0–3 0–3
Renua Ireland 0 0 0 0 0 0

Fine Gael

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fine Gael page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.4% 100%  
47 0.4% 99.6%  
48 0.4% 99.2%  
49 1.0% 98.8% Last Result
50 1.1% 98%  
51 2% 97%  
52 5% 95%  
53 8% 90%  
54 4% 81%  
55 8% 77%  
56 17% 69%  
57 4% 52% Median
58 3% 48%  
59 6% 45%  
60 12% 39%  
61 7% 27%  
62 8% 20%  
63 3% 11%  
64 1.4% 8%  
65 3% 7%  
66 2% 3%  
67 1.2% 1.5%  
68 0.1% 0.2%  
69 0.1% 0.2%  
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fianna Fáil page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0% 100% Last Result
45 0.1% 99.9%  
46 0.1% 99.9%  
47 0.5% 99.7%  
48 1.4% 99.3%  
49 4% 98%  
50 2% 93%  
51 10% 91%  
52 20% 81%  
53 25% 61% Median
54 10% 36%  
55 8% 26%  
56 9% 17%  
57 3% 8%  
58 1.5% 5%  
59 3% 3%  
60 0.4% 0.4%  
61 0% 0%  

Sinn Féin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinn Féin page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 0.3% 99.9%  
14 3% 99.7%  
15 5% 96%  
16 10% 91%  
17 11% 81%  
18 7% 70%  
19 4% 63%  
20 9% 59%  
21 4% 51% Median
22 7% 47%  
23 8% 40% Last Result
24 6% 32%  
25 3% 26%  
26 14% 23%  
27 7% 9%  
28 1.5% 2%  
29 0.2% 0.6%  
30 0.3% 0.4%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0%  

Independent

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independent page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.3% 100%  
4 0.5% 99.7%  
5 3% 99.3%  
6 3% 96%  
7 8% 93%  
8 22% 84%  
9 7% 62%  
10 12% 55% Median
11 16% 44%  
12 3% 28%  
13 10% 25%  
14 8% 14%  
15 5% 7%  
16 1.1% 1.1%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party/Comhaontas Glas page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 3% 100%  
5 9% 97%  
6 39% 88% Median
7 3% 49%  
8 19% 46%  
9 10% 27%  
10 10% 17%  
11 2% 7%  
12 2% 5%  
13 1.1% 3%  
14 1.1% 2%  
15 0.9% 1.0%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100%  
1 3% 99.8%  
2 6% 97%  
3 14% 91%  
4 5% 77%  
5 25% 72% Median
6 19% 46%  
7 6% 28% Last Result
8 6% 22%  
9 4% 16%  
10 2% 12%  
11 4% 9%  
12 3% 5%  
13 0.8% 3%  
14 1.0% 2%  
15 0.6% 1.0%  
16 0.3% 0.4%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Independents 4 Change

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents 4 Change page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 6% 100%  
1 7% 94%  
2 6% 87%  
3 21% 81%  
4 50% 60% Last Result, Median
5 10% 10%  
6 0% 0%  

Solidarity–People Before Profit

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Solidarity–People Before Profit page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98.9% 100% Median
1 0.8% 1.1%  
2 0.3% 0.3%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0% Last Result

Social Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Social Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 17% 100%  
1 31% 83%  
2 28% 53% Median
3 25% 25% Last Result
4 0% 0%  

Renua Ireland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Renua Ireland page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael – Fianna Fáil 93 111 100% 106–117 105–119 103–121 101–122
Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin 67 74 3% 68–80 68–80 67–81 65–83
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party – Social Democrats 61 72 3% 68–79 66–80 64–81 62–84
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party 58 70 1.3% 66–76 63–78 63–80 61–82
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party – Social Democrats 56 67 0.2% 63–73 62–76 61–79 60–80
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party 53 66 0.1% 61–72 61–75 60–77 58–78
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 51 65 0% 60–70 59–71 57–73 55–75
Fine Gael – Labour Party 56 63 0% 57–70 56–71 54–73 53–74
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 46 60 0% 57–65 55–66 55–69 53–70
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party 51 58 0% 55–64 54–66 54–67 52–70
Fine Gael 49 57 0% 52–63 51–65 50–66 47–67

Fine Gael – Fianna Fáil

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
93 0% 100% Last Result
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0.1% 99.9%  
99 0.1% 99.9%  
100 0.2% 99.8%  
101 0.6% 99.6%  
102 0.6% 99.0%  
103 1.2% 98%  
104 1.1% 97%  
105 3% 96%  
106 7% 93%  
107 3% 85%  
108 7% 83%  
109 18% 76%  
110 4% 57% Median
111 16% 53%  
112 10% 38%  
113 5% 28%  
114 7% 23%  
115 4% 16%  
116 2% 12%  
117 4% 10%  
118 1.2% 7%  
119 1.2% 5%  
120 1.2% 4%  
121 1.1% 3%  
122 2% 2%  
123 0.2% 0.2%  
124 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.1% 100%  
62 0.1% 99.9%  
63 0.1% 99.9%  
64 0.2% 99.7%  
65 0.2% 99.5%  
66 1.4% 99.3%  
67 2% 98% Last Result
68 6% 96%  
69 7% 89%  
70 9% 83%  
71 8% 74%  
72 6% 65%  
73 4% 59%  
74 13% 55% Median
75 6% 42%  
76 3% 37%  
77 3% 34%  
78 3% 31%  
79 16% 28%  
80 9% 12%  
81 1.2% 3% Majority
82 1.3% 2%  
83 0.3% 0.8%  
84 0.1% 0.5%  
85 0.3% 0.4%  
86 0.1% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party – Social Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0% 100%  
61 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
62 0.4% 99.9%  
63 0.4% 99.4%  
64 2% 99.1%  
65 2% 97%  
66 3% 95%  
67 2% 93%  
68 9% 90%  
69 15% 81%  
70 5% 67% Median
71 7% 62%  
72 10% 55%  
73 3% 45%  
74 5% 42%  
75 7% 36%  
76 7% 29%  
77 7% 22%  
78 3% 15%  
79 5% 12%  
80 4% 6%  
81 1.0% 3% Majority
82 0.5% 2%  
83 0.5% 1.1%  
84 0.4% 0.6%  
85 0.1% 0.3%  
86 0.1% 0.1%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0.1% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100% Last Result
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0.2% 99.9%  
61 0.3% 99.7%  
62 0.8% 99.5%  
63 4% 98.6%  
64 1.4% 95%  
65 3% 93%  
66 7% 90%  
67 15% 83%  
68 3% 68% Median
69 4% 65%  
70 12% 61%  
71 7% 50%  
72 3% 43%  
73 7% 40%  
74 7% 33%  
75 7% 26%  
76 10% 19%  
77 2% 9%  
78 3% 8%  
79 2% 4%  
80 1.2% 3%  
81 0.5% 1.3% Majority
82 0.3% 0.8%  
83 0.2% 0.5%  
84 0.1% 0.2%  
85 0% 0.1%  
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party – Social Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0% 100% Last Result
57 0% 100%  
58 0.2% 99.9%  
59 0.1% 99.7%  
60 0.9% 99.7%  
61 3% 98.8%  
62 6% 96%  
63 3% 90%  
64 8% 87%  
65 5% 79%  
66 20% 74% Median
67 5% 55%  
68 10% 50%  
69 2% 40%  
70 8% 38%  
71 8% 30%  
72 10% 21%  
73 2% 11%  
74 2% 9%  
75 2% 7%  
76 1.3% 6%  
77 0.5% 4%  
78 0.7% 4%  
79 3% 3%  
80 0.4% 0.5%  
81 0% 0.2% Majority
82 0% 0.1%  
83 0.1% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0% 100% Last Result
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 100%  
56 0% 99.9%  
57 0.3% 99.9%  
58 0.1% 99.6%  
59 1.2% 99.5%  
60 3% 98%  
61 7% 95%  
62 7% 89%  
63 7% 82%  
64 15% 75% Median
65 6% 60%  
66 11% 54%  
67 9% 43%  
68 7% 35%  
69 5% 28%  
70 4% 23%  
71 5% 18%  
72 5% 13%  
73 2% 9%  
74 1.5% 7%  
75 0.9% 5%  
76 0.6% 4%  
77 3% 4%  
78 0.4% 0.8%  
79 0.1% 0.4%  
80 0.2% 0.2%  
81 0% 0.1% Majority
82 0% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100% Last Result
52 0% 100%  
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0.4% 99.9%  
55 0.7% 99.5%  
56 0.5% 98.8%  
57 1.1% 98%  
58 2% 97%  
59 2% 95%  
60 4% 94%  
61 10% 89%  
62 14% 79%  
63 4% 66% Median
64 8% 62%  
65 5% 53%  
66 9% 48%  
67 7% 40%  
68 12% 33%  
69 6% 21%  
70 5% 15%  
71 5% 10%  
72 2% 5%  
73 0.7% 3%  
74 0.9% 2%  
75 0.6% 1.0%  
76 0.2% 0.4%  
77 0.1% 0.2%  
78 0.1% 0.2%  
79 0% 0.1%  
80 0.1% 0.1%  
81 0% 0% Majority

Fine Gael – Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100%  
52 0.1% 99.9%  
53 0.4% 99.9%  
54 2% 99.5%  
55 1.5% 97%  
56 1.0% 96% Last Result
57 6% 95%  
58 5% 88%  
59 2% 83%  
60 4% 81%  
61 18% 77%  
62 6% 59% Median
63 6% 53%  
64 7% 47%  
65 6% 41%  
66 4% 35%  
67 6% 30%  
68 8% 24%  
69 5% 16%  
70 4% 12%  
71 4% 8%  
72 0.8% 4%  
73 1.3% 3%  
74 1.0% 2%  
75 0.2% 0.5%  
76 0.1% 0.3%  
77 0.1% 0.2%  
78 0% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0% 100% Last Result
47 0% 100%  
48 0% 100%  
49 0% 100%  
50 0% 100%  
51 0.1% 100%  
52 0.2% 99.9%  
53 0.4% 99.7%  
54 0.3% 99.3%  
55 5% 99.0%  
56 4% 94%  
57 9% 90%  
58 7% 81%  
59 20% 74% Median
60 12% 54%  
61 8% 43%  
62 8% 35%  
63 4% 27%  
64 4% 23%  
65 11% 19%  
66 3% 8%  
67 1.1% 5%  
68 0.5% 4%  
69 1.2% 3%  
70 2% 2%  
71 0% 0.3%  
72 0.2% 0.3%  
73 0.1% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100%  
50 0.2% 99.9%  
51 0.3% 99.8% Last Result
52 0.4% 99.5%  
53 1.2% 99.1%  
54 5% 98%  
55 8% 93%  
56 6% 85%  
57 13% 79%  
58 21% 65% Median
59 8% 44%  
60 7% 36%  
61 6% 28%  
62 6% 22%  
63 5% 16%  
64 2% 11%  
65 2% 9%  
66 2% 7%  
67 4% 5%  
68 0.3% 1.1%  
69 0.4% 0.9%  
70 0.2% 0.5%  
71 0.2% 0.3%  
72 0.1% 0.2%  
73 0.1% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  

Fine Gael

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.4% 100%  
47 0.4% 99.6%  
48 0.4% 99.2%  
49 1.0% 98.8% Last Result
50 1.1% 98%  
51 2% 97%  
52 5% 95%  
53 8% 90%  
54 4% 81%  
55 8% 77%  
56 17% 69%  
57 4% 52% Median
58 3% 48%  
59 6% 45%  
60 12% 39%  
61 7% 27%  
62 8% 20%  
63 3% 11%  
64 1.4% 8%  
65 3% 7%  
66 2% 3%  
67 1.2% 1.5%  
68 0.1% 0.2%  
69 0.1% 0.2%  
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations