Opinion Poll by Behaviour and Attitudes for The Sunday Times, 5–17 September 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fianna Fáil 24.3% 29.2% 27.1–31.0% 26.6–31.6% 26.1–32.1% 25.2–33.0%
Fine Gael 25.5% 26.2% 24.2–27.9% 23.7–28.5% 23.2–29.0% 22.4–29.9%
Sinn Féin 13.8% 20.1% 18.4–21.8% 17.9–22.3% 17.5–22.7% 16.8–23.6%
Independent 15.9% 8.5% 7.4–9.8% 7.1–10.1% 6.8–10.5% 6.3–11.1%
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2.7% 5.0% 4.2–6.1% 3.9–6.4% 3.7–6.6% 3.4–7.2%
Labour Party 6.6% 3.0% 2.4–3.9% 2.2–4.1% 2.1–4.3% 1.8–4.8%
Independents 4 Change 1.5% 1.1% 0.8–1.7% 0.7–1.9% 0.6–2.0% 0.5–2.4%
Solidarity–People Before Profit 3.9% 1.0% 0.7–1.6% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.9% 0.4–2.2%
Social Democrats 3.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.6% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.9% 0.4–2.2%
Renua Ireland 2.2% 0.3% 0.7–1.6% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.9% 0.4–2.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fianna Fáil 44 57 53–59 52–59 50–60 49–61
Fine Gael 49 51 47–56 47–59 46–59 44–61
Sinn Féin 23 39 36–41 36–42 36–42 34–44
Independent 19 5 4–6 4–7 3–8 3–11
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2 4 3–6 3–7 2–8 2–9
Labour Party 7 0 0–2 0–2 0–2 0–2
Independents 4 Change 4 2 0–4 0–4 0–4 0–5
Solidarity–People Before Profit 6 0 0 0 0 0–1
Social Democrats 3 1 0–3 0–3 0–3 0–4
Renua Ireland 0 0 0 0 0–1 0–1

Fianna Fáil

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fianna Fáil page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0% 100% Last Result
45 0% 100%  
46 0% 100%  
47 0.1% 99.9%  
48 0.1% 99.9%  
49 0.3% 99.7%  
50 2% 99.5%  
51 1.2% 97%  
52 2% 96%  
53 7% 94%  
54 8% 87%  
55 4% 79%  
56 18% 74%  
57 20% 56% Median
58 15% 36%  
59 17% 21%  
60 3% 4%  
61 0.8% 1.0%  
62 0.2% 0.2%  
63 0% 0%  

Fine Gael

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fine Gael page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.1% 99.9%  
44 1.1% 99.8%  
45 1.1% 98.7%  
46 3% 98%  
47 6% 95%  
48 12% 89%  
49 8% 77% Last Result
50 13% 68%  
51 13% 55% Median
52 8% 42%  
53 12% 34%  
54 5% 22%  
55 7% 18%  
56 3% 11%  
57 1.2% 8%  
58 1.0% 7%  
59 4% 6%  
60 0.5% 1.1%  
61 0.3% 0.6%  
62 0.2% 0.3%  
63 0% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Sinn Féin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinn Féin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 0.1% 99.9%  
34 0.5% 99.9%  
35 1.2% 99.4%  
36 11% 98%  
37 14% 88%  
38 12% 74%  
39 22% 61% Median
40 20% 40%  
41 14% 20%  
42 4% 6%  
43 1.1% 2%  
44 0.4% 0.5%  
45 0.1% 0.1%  
46 0% 0%  

Independent

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independent page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 3% 100%  
4 42% 97%  
5 43% 56% Median
6 5% 12%  
7 4% 7%  
8 1.4% 3%  
9 0.9% 2%  
10 0.2% 0.9%  
11 0.5% 0.7%  
12 0.1% 0.2%  
13 0% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party/Comhaontas Glas page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100%  
2 3% 99.9% Last Result
3 22% 97%  
4 33% 75% Median
5 20% 42%  
6 17% 22%  
7 2% 5%  
8 3% 4%  
9 1.0% 1.1%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 80% 100% Median
1 9% 20%  
2 11% 11%  
3 0.2% 0.3%  
4 0% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0% Last Result

Independents 4 Change

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents 4 Change page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 27% 100%  
1 9% 73%  
2 16% 64% Median
3 6% 47%  
4 39% 41% Last Result
5 2% 2%  
6 0% 0%  

Solidarity–People Before Profit

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Solidarity–People Before Profit page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.4% 100% Median
1 0.2% 0.6%  
2 0.1% 0.5%  
3 0.3% 0.4%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0% Last Result

Social Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Social Democrats page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 25% 100%  
1 26% 75% Median
2 22% 49%  
3 26% 26% Last Result
4 0.5% 0.5%  
5 0% 0%  

Renua Ireland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Renua Ireland page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 96% 100% Last Result, Median
1 4% 4%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fianna Fáil – Fine Gael 93 108 100% 104–111 103–112 101–114 100–116
Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin 67 95 100% 90–99 90–100 89–101 86–102
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party – Social Democrats 56 63 0% 59–66 58–67 57–67 55–69
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party 53 62 0% 58–64 57–65 56–66 54–67
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 46 61 0% 57–63 56–64 56–65 53–67
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party – Social Democrats 61 57 0% 53–63 52–64 52–65 50–66
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party 58 56 0% 52–61 51–63 51–64 49–65
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 51 55 0% 51–60 51–63 50–64 49–65
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party 51 57 0% 53–59 52–60 50–60 50–62
Fine Gael 49 51 0% 47–56 47–59 46–59 44–61
Fine Gael – Labour Party 56 51 0% 48–57 47–59 46–59 44–61

Fianna Fáil – Fine Gael

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
93 0% 100% Last Result
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0.1% 100%  
98 0.1% 99.8%  
99 0.2% 99.7%  
100 0.8% 99.5%  
101 1.2% 98.7%  
102 0.9% 97%  
103 4% 97%  
104 4% 93%  
105 6% 89%  
106 6% 82%  
107 22% 76%  
108 18% 54% Median
109 15% 36%  
110 11% 22%  
111 2% 11%  
112 5% 9%  
113 1.2% 4%  
114 0.6% 3%  
115 1.0% 2%  
116 1.0% 1.1%  
117 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100% Majority
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0.1% 99.9%  
86 0.4% 99.8%  
87 0.4% 99.4%  
88 1.1% 99.0%  
89 2% 98%  
90 7% 96%  
91 4% 89%  
92 3% 85%  
93 7% 82%  
94 9% 75%  
95 19% 66%  
96 4% 47% Median
97 12% 43%  
98 17% 31%  
99 7% 13%  
100 4% 7%  
101 2% 3%  
102 0.5% 0.7%  
103 0.2% 0.2%  
104 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party – Social Democrats

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0% 100%  
53 0.1% 99.9%  
54 0.1% 99.9%  
55 0.7% 99.8%  
56 1.3% 99.1% Last Result
57 0.9% 98%  
58 2% 97%  
59 7% 95%  
60 6% 87%  
61 9% 81%  
62 14% 72% Median
63 16% 58%  
64 19% 41%  
65 11% 22%  
66 3% 12%  
67 7% 9%  
68 1.1% 2%  
69 0.6% 0.8%  
70 0.2% 0.2%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0% 100%  
51 0.1% 99.9%  
52 0.2% 99.9%  
53 0.1% 99.6% Last Result
54 0.3% 99.5%  
55 1.1% 99.2%  
56 3% 98%  
57 4% 95%  
58 5% 91%  
59 7% 86%  
60 15% 79%  
61 13% 65% Median
62 18% 51%  
63 18% 33%  
64 8% 15%  
65 4% 7%  
66 1.4% 3%  
67 1.0% 1.3%  
68 0.2% 0.3%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0% 100% Last Result
47 0% 100%  
48 0% 100%  
49 0% 100%  
50 0% 100%  
51 0.1% 99.9%  
52 0.3% 99.9%  
53 0.2% 99.6%  
54 0.5% 99.5%  
55 1.2% 98.9%  
56 3% 98%  
57 5% 95%  
58 7% 90%  
59 7% 83%  
60 14% 76%  
61 14% 62% Median
62 22% 48%  
63 16% 25%  
64 5% 10%  
65 2% 4%  
66 1.2% 2%  
67 0.7% 0.9%  
68 0.2% 0.2%  
69 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party – Social Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0% 100%  
49 0.2% 99.9%  
50 0.3% 99.8%  
51 2% 99.4%  
52 4% 98%  
53 8% 94%  
54 10% 86%  
55 9% 76%  
56 7% 66% Median
57 13% 60%  
58 5% 46%  
59 11% 41%  
60 10% 30%  
61 5% 21% Last Result
62 4% 15%  
63 4% 11%  
64 4% 7%  
65 3% 4%  
66 0.5% 0.9%  
67 0.2% 0.4%  
68 0.1% 0.2%  
69 0% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0% 100%  
48 0.1% 99.9%  
49 0.6% 99.9%  
50 1.1% 99.3%  
51 7% 98%  
52 12% 91%  
53 8% 79%  
54 7% 71%  
55 11% 64% Median
56 12% 53%  
57 7% 41%  
58 6% 34% Last Result
59 10% 28%  
60 7% 18%  
61 4% 12%  
62 3% 8%  
63 2% 5%  
64 3% 4%  
65 0.4% 0.7%  
66 0.1% 0.2%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.2% 99.9%  
49 0.6% 99.7%  
50 2% 99.1%  
51 10% 97% Last Result
52 9% 87%  
53 9% 78%  
54 11% 69%  
55 12% 59% Median
56 7% 47%  
57 8% 40%  
58 6% 33%  
59 12% 27%  
60 6% 14%  
61 0.7% 8%  
62 2% 7%  
63 2% 5%  
64 3% 3%  
65 0.4% 0.5%  
66 0.1% 0.2%  
67 0% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0% 100%  
47 0.1% 99.9%  
48 0.1% 99.9%  
49 0.2% 99.8%  
50 2% 99.6%  
51 1.1% 97% Last Result
52 2% 96%  
53 6% 94%  
54 6% 88%  
55 4% 82%  
56 17% 78%  
57 21% 61% Median
58 12% 40%  
59 19% 28%  
60 8% 9%  
61 1.0% 2%  
62 0.8% 1.0%  
63 0.2% 0.2%  
64 0% 0%  

Fine Gael

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.1% 99.9%  
44 1.1% 99.8%  
45 1.1% 98.7%  
46 3% 98%  
47 6% 95%  
48 12% 89%  
49 8% 77% Last Result
50 13% 68%  
51 13% 55% Median
52 8% 42%  
53 12% 34%  
54 5% 22%  
55 7% 18%  
56 3% 11%  
57 1.2% 8%  
58 1.0% 7%  
59 4% 6%  
60 0.5% 1.1%  
61 0.3% 0.6%  
62 0.2% 0.3%  
63 0% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.1% 99.9%  
44 0.8% 99.8%  
45 1.2% 99.1%  
46 2% 98%  
47 2% 96%  
48 15% 93%  
49 7% 78%  
50 10% 71%  
51 13% 60% Median
52 12% 47%  
53 11% 35%  
54 4% 24%  
55 5% 19%  
56 4% 14% Last Result
57 3% 10%  
58 1.4% 7%  
59 5% 6%  
60 0.5% 1.2%  
61 0.4% 0.7%  
62 0.3% 0.3%  
63 0% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations