Opinion Poll by Ipsos MRBI for The Irish Times, 11–13 October 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael 25.5% 29.3% 27.7–31.1% 27.2–31.6% 26.8–32.0% 26.0–32.8%
Fianna Fáil 24.3% 25.2% 23.7–26.9% 23.2–27.4% 22.9–27.8% 22.1–28.6%
Sinn Féin 13.8% 14.2% 12.9–15.5% 12.6–15.9% 12.3–16.3% 11.7–16.9%
Independent 15.9% 11.9% 11.4–13.9% 11.1–14.3% 10.8–14.6% 10.3–15.2%
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2.7% 8.1% 7.1–9.2% 6.9–9.5% 6.7–9.8% 6.2–10.3%
Labour Party 6.6% 6.1% 5.3–7.1% 5.0–7.3% 4.9–7.6% 4.5–8.1%
Independents 4 Change 1.5% 1.5% 1.2–2.2% 1.1–2.3% 1.0–2.5% 0.9–2.8%
Solidarity–People Before Profit 3.9% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.6% 0.6–1.8% 0.5–2.0%
Social Democrats 3.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.6% 0.6–1.8% 0.5–2.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael 49 56 51–59 49–61 47–63 47–64
Fianna Fáil 44 48 44–50 42–51 41–52 39–54
Sinn Féin 23 30 22–30 21–32 20–32 17–33
Independent 19 9 9–16 7–16 7–16 6–16
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2 8 7–9 6–11 6–12 5–15
Labour Party 7 4 4–8 2–9 2–10 1–14
Independents 4 Change 4 4 3–4 1–5 0–5 0–5
Solidarity–People Before Profit 6 0 0 0 0 0
Social Democrats 3 0 0–3 0–3 0–3 0–3

Fine Gael

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fine Gael page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0% 100%  
47 3% 99.9%  
48 1.4% 97%  
49 2% 96% Last Result
50 2% 93%  
51 8% 91%  
52 4% 84%  
53 8% 80%  
54 4% 72%  
55 2% 67%  
56 49% 66% Median
57 1.4% 17%  
58 4% 16%  
59 4% 12%  
60 2% 9%  
61 1.5% 6%  
62 2% 5%  
63 1.0% 3%  
64 1.3% 2%  
65 0% 0.3%  
66 0.1% 0.3%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0.1%  
69 0% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fianna Fáil page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.2% 99.9%  
39 0.3% 99.7%  
40 0.4% 99.4%  
41 2% 99.0%  
42 4% 97%  
43 2% 94%  
44 2% 92% Last Result
45 4% 89%  
46 9% 85%  
47 6% 76%  
48 53% 70% Median
49 7% 18%  
50 5% 11%  
51 2% 6%  
52 3% 5%  
53 0.6% 1.3%  
54 0.7% 0.7%  
55 0% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

Sinn Féin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinn Féin page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 0.2% 99.9%  
16 0.2% 99.7%  
17 0.4% 99.6%  
18 0.2% 99.2%  
19 0.2% 99.0%  
20 3% 98.9%  
21 3% 96%  
22 6% 93%  
23 1.4% 87% Last Result
24 3% 85%  
25 4% 82%  
26 7% 78%  
27 7% 71%  
28 2% 64%  
29 8% 61%  
30 44% 53% Median
31 3% 10%  
32 6% 7%  
33 0.6% 0.8%  
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  

Independent

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independent page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.2% 100%  
6 0.7% 99.8%  
7 6% 99.1%  
8 2% 93%  
9 45% 90% Median
10 4% 45%  
11 2% 41%  
12 3% 38%  
13 2% 35%  
14 1.2% 33%  
15 7% 32%  
16 25% 25%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party/Comhaontas Glas page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.7% 100%  
6 7% 99.2%  
7 5% 92%  
8 68% 87% Median
9 11% 20%  
10 2% 8%  
11 3% 7%  
12 2% 3%  
13 0.5% 2%  
14 0.5% 1.3%  
15 0.7% 0.8%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 2% 100%  
2 3% 98%  
3 3% 95%  
4 49% 92% Median
5 14% 43%  
6 9% 29%  
7 6% 20% Last Result
8 6% 14%  
9 5% 8%  
10 0.3% 3%  
11 1.2% 2%  
12 0.1% 1.2%  
13 0.1% 1.1%  
14 0.8% 1.0%  
15 0.2% 0.2%  
16 0% 0%  

Independents 4 Change

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents 4 Change page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 4% 100%  
1 1.2% 96%  
2 3% 95%  
3 14% 92%  
4 69% 78% Last Result, Median
5 9% 9%  
6 0% 0%  

Solidarity–People Before Profit

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Solidarity–People Before Profit page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0% Last Result

Social Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Social Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 81% 100% Median
1 1.4% 19%  
2 5% 18%  
3 13% 13% Last Result
4 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael – Fianna Fáil 93 104 100% 97–106 96–107 95–112 93–114
Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin 67 77 0.3% 70–78 69–80 68–80 64–80
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party – Social Democrats 61 68 0.4% 66–73 65–76 64–77 63–80
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party 58 68 0.3% 65–73 64–75 62–77 61–79
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 51 64 0% 58–67 57–69 56–70 56–74
Fine Gael – Labour Party 56 60 0% 56–64 55–67 53–69 52–70
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party 53 60 0% 58–64 55–67 54–68 49–70
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party – Social Democrats 56 60 0% 59–65 57–68 54–68 50–71
Fine Gael 49 56 0% 51–59 49–61 47–63 47–64
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 46 56 0% 53–58 50–60 49–61 46–64
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party 51 52 0% 50–56 47–57 44–59 42–59

Fine Gael – Fianna Fáil

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
90 0.1% 100%  
91 0.1% 99.9%  
92 0.1% 99.7%  
93 1.5% 99.7% Last Result
94 0.3% 98%  
95 1.4% 98%  
96 4% 96%  
97 5% 92%  
98 6% 88%  
99 3% 81%  
100 5% 78%  
101 3% 73%  
102 5% 70%  
103 1.3% 65%  
104 49% 63% Median
105 2% 15%  
106 6% 13%  
107 3% 7%  
108 0.6% 5%  
109 0.3% 4%  
110 0.4% 4%  
111 0.2% 3%  
112 1.3% 3%  
113 0.7% 2%  
114 0.9% 1.1%  
115 0.1% 0.2%  
116 0% 0.1%  
117 0% 0.1%  
118 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 99.9%  
60 0.1% 99.9%  
61 0% 99.8%  
62 0.1% 99.8%  
63 0.1% 99.8%  
64 0.7% 99.6%  
65 0.2% 98.9%  
66 0.1% 98.8%  
67 0.8% 98.7% Last Result
68 3% 98%  
69 3% 95%  
70 4% 92%  
71 5% 88%  
72 10% 84%  
73 6% 73%  
74 9% 68%  
75 2% 59%  
76 1.3% 56%  
77 5% 55%  
78 43% 50% Median
79 0.6% 7%  
80 6% 6%  
81 0.2% 0.3% Majority
82 0% 0.1%  
83 0.1% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party – Social Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.2% 100% Last Result
62 0.3% 99.8%  
63 2% 99.5%  
64 1.3% 98%  
65 5% 96%  
66 4% 91%  
67 5% 87%  
68 50% 82% Median
69 10% 32%  
70 4% 22%  
71 1.1% 19%  
72 2% 18%  
73 6% 15%  
74 1.2% 9%  
75 2% 8%  
76 1.2% 6%  
77 3% 4%  
78 0.9% 2%  
79 0.2% 0.9%  
80 0.2% 0.6%  
81 0.1% 0.4% Majority
82 0.1% 0.4%  
83 0.1% 0.2%  
84 0% 0.2%  
85 0% 0.1%  
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100% Last Result
59 0% 100%  
60 0.1% 99.9%  
61 2% 99.9%  
62 0.8% 98%  
63 2% 97%  
64 2% 95%  
65 8% 93%  
66 5% 85%  
67 5% 80%  
68 47% 75% Median
69 8% 29%  
70 4% 21%  
71 2% 17%  
72 2% 15%  
73 5% 13%  
74 2% 8%  
75 2% 6%  
76 0.6% 4%  
77 2% 3%  
78 0.4% 1.1%  
79 0.3% 0.8%  
80 0.2% 0.5%  
81 0% 0.3% Majority
82 0% 0.2%  
83 0% 0.2%  
84 0% 0.1%  
85 0% 0.1%  
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100% Last Result
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 100%  
54 0% 100%  
55 0.2% 100%  
56 3% 99.8%  
57 3% 97%  
58 5% 94%  
59 5% 90%  
60 6% 85%  
61 5% 79%  
62 1.2% 73%  
63 4% 72%  
64 48% 68% Median
65 3% 20%  
66 2% 18%  
67 6% 15%  
68 3% 9%  
69 2% 6%  
70 3% 4%  
71 0.3% 2%  
72 0.2% 1.2%  
73 0.2% 1.0%  
74 0.3% 0.8%  
75 0.1% 0.4%  
76 0.3% 0.3%  
77 0% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100%  
52 0.8% 99.9%  
53 2% 99.1%  
54 0.4% 97%  
55 4% 97%  
56 4% 93% Last Result
57 5% 89%  
58 2% 84%  
59 9% 82%  
60 48% 73% Median
61 7% 25%  
62 1.3% 19%  
63 3% 17%  
64 4% 14%  
65 3% 10%  
66 1.3% 7%  
67 0.8% 5%  
68 0.8% 5%  
69 3% 4%  
70 0.6% 1.0%  
71 0.2% 0.4%  
72 0.1% 0.2%  
73 0.1% 0.2%  
74 0% 0.1%  
75 0% 0.1%  
76 0% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.2% 100%  
49 0.5% 99.8%  
50 0.3% 99.4%  
51 0.2% 99.1%  
52 0.2% 98.9%  
53 1.1% 98.7% Last Result
54 1.3% 98%  
55 2% 96%  
56 3% 95%  
57 1.5% 92%  
58 3% 90%  
59 5% 87%  
60 44% 82% Median
61 13% 39%  
62 3% 26%  
63 4% 23%  
64 9% 18%  
65 3% 9%  
66 1.0% 6%  
67 1.5% 5%  
68 3% 4%  
69 0.4% 1.2%  
70 0.4% 0.8%  
71 0.1% 0.4%  
72 0.2% 0.3%  
73 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party – Social Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.5% 100%  
50 0.3% 99.5%  
51 0.2% 99.3%  
52 0.1% 99.1%  
53 1.2% 98.9%  
54 1.3% 98%  
55 0.2% 96%  
56 0.3% 96% Last Result
57 2% 96%  
58 4% 94%  
59 3% 90%  
60 43% 88% Median
61 12% 45%  
62 6% 33%  
63 6% 27%  
64 10% 22%  
65 3% 12%  
66 2% 9%  
67 2% 7%  
68 4% 5%  
69 0.5% 1.4%  
70 0.3% 0.9%  
71 0.2% 0.6%  
72 0.2% 0.4%  
73 0.1% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  

Fine Gael

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0% 100%  
47 3% 99.9%  
48 1.4% 97%  
49 2% 96% Last Result
50 2% 93%  
51 8% 91%  
52 4% 84%  
53 8% 80%  
54 4% 72%  
55 2% 67%  
56 49% 66% Median
57 1.4% 17%  
58 4% 16%  
59 4% 12%  
60 2% 9%  
61 1.5% 6%  
62 2% 5%  
63 1.0% 3%  
64 1.3% 2%  
65 0% 0.3%  
66 0.1% 0.3%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0.1%  
69 0% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.2% 100%  
45 0.1% 99.8%  
46 0.3% 99.8% Last Result
47 0.5% 99.5%  
48 1.2% 99.0%  
49 1.3% 98%  
50 2% 96%  
51 1.1% 95%  
52 2% 93%  
53 5% 92%  
54 10% 87%  
55 6% 77%  
56 50% 71% Median
57 9% 21%  
58 2% 12%  
59 3% 9%  
60 3% 6%  
61 0.9% 3%  
62 1.1% 2%  
63 0.4% 1.4%  
64 0.7% 0.9%  
65 0.1% 0.2%  
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.1% 99.9%  
42 0.4% 99.8%  
43 1.3% 99.4%  
44 0.9% 98%  
45 0.9% 97%  
46 1.1% 96%  
47 1.4% 95%  
48 2% 94%  
49 1.4% 92%  
50 2% 91%  
51 6% 88% Last Result
52 45% 82% Median
53 13% 37%  
54 4% 23%  
55 1.1% 19%  
56 8% 18%  
57 5% 10%  
58 2% 5%  
59 3% 3%  
60 0.2% 0.3%  
61 0.1% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations