Opinion Poll by Behaviour and Attitudes for The Sunday Times, 3–15 October 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael 25.5% 29.0% 27.1–31.0% 26.6–31.6% 26.1–32.1% 25.2–33.0%
Fianna Fáil 24.3% 28.0% 26.1–30.0% 25.6–30.5% 25.2–31.0% 24.3–32.0%
Sinn Féin 13.8% 16.0% 14.5–17.7% 14.1–18.1% 13.7–18.5% 13.1–19.4%
Independent 15.9% 8.4% 7.4–9.8% 7.1–10.1% 6.8–10.5% 6.3–11.1%
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2.7% 6.0% 5.1–7.1% 4.8–7.5% 4.6–7.8% 4.2–8.3%
Labour Party 6.6% 5.0% 4.2–6.1% 3.9–6.4% 3.7–6.6% 3.4–7.2%
Solidarity–People Before Profit 3.9% 3.0% 2.4–3.9% 2.2–4.1% 2.1–4.3% 1.8–4.8%
Independents 4 Change 1.5% 1.1% 0.8–1.7% 0.7–1.9% 0.6–2.0% 0.5–2.4%
Social Democrats 3.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.6% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.9% 0.4–2.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael 49 59 53–62 51–63 50–63 46–65
Fianna Fáil 44 53 49–57 47–57 46–58 44–59
Sinn Féin 23 32 28–34 27–35 26–35 23–37
Independent 19 3 3–6 3–8 3–9 3–11
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2 5 4–6 3–8 2–8 2–10
Labour Party 7 5 1–8 1–9 0–10 0–13
Solidarity–People Before Profit 6 2 1–4 1–4 1–4 1–6
Independents 4 Change 4 2 2–3 1–3 1–3 0–3
Social Democrats 3 1 0–2 0–2 0–3 0–3

Fine Gael

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fine Gael page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0% 100%  
45 0.1% 99.9%  
46 0.3% 99.8%  
47 0.3% 99.5%  
48 0.4% 99.2%  
49 0.6% 98.8% Last Result
50 1.1% 98%  
51 2% 97%  
52 3% 95%  
53 4% 91%  
54 5% 88%  
55 4% 83%  
56 7% 78%  
57 6% 71%  
58 13% 65%  
59 13% 52% Median
60 19% 39%  
61 7% 20%  
62 7% 12%  
63 3% 5%  
64 1.3% 2%  
65 0.7% 1.1%  
66 0.2% 0.4%  
67 0.1% 0.2%  
68 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fianna Fáil page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0% 100%  
42 0.3% 99.9%  
43 0.2% 99.7%  
44 0.5% 99.5% Last Result
45 0.6% 99.0%  
46 1.3% 98%  
47 3% 97%  
48 3% 94%  
49 10% 91%  
50 7% 80%  
51 7% 73%  
52 15% 66%  
53 11% 51% Median
54 11% 40%  
55 11% 29%  
56 6% 18%  
57 8% 12%  
58 4% 4%  
59 0.4% 0.9%  
60 0.5% 0.5%  
61 0% 0%  

Sinn Féin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinn Féin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0% 100%  
21 0.1% 99.9%  
22 0.1% 99.8%  
23 0.3% 99.7% Last Result
24 0.6% 99.4%  
25 1.1% 98.8%  
26 1.2% 98%  
27 4% 96%  
28 15% 92%  
29 7% 78%  
30 7% 71%  
31 9% 63%  
32 29% 55% Median
33 5% 26%  
34 11% 21%  
35 8% 10%  
36 1.3% 2%  
37 0.5% 0.5%  
38 0% 0%  

Independent

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independent page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.2% 100%  
3 51% 99.8% Median
4 35% 49%  
5 3% 14%  
6 2% 11%  
7 3% 9%  
8 3% 6%  
9 2% 3%  
10 0.7% 1.5%  
11 0.3% 0.8%  
12 0.2% 0.5%  
13 0.1% 0.2%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party/Comhaontas Glas page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 4% 100% Last Result
3 4% 96%  
4 15% 92%  
5 65% 76% Median
6 2% 11%  
7 4% 9%  
8 3% 5%  
9 2% 2%  
10 0.2% 0.7%  
11 0.3% 0.5%  
12 0.1% 0.2%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 4% 100%  
1 9% 96%  
2 19% 87%  
3 8% 68%  
4 8% 60%  
5 15% 51% Median
6 14% 36%  
7 10% 23% Last Result
8 7% 12%  
9 2% 5%  
10 0.7% 3%  
11 1.3% 2%  
12 0.3% 1.0%  
13 0.2% 0.6%  
14 0.2% 0.4%  
15 0.1% 0.2%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

Solidarity–People Before Profit

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Solidarity–People Before Profit page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100%  
1 36% 99.8%  
2 27% 63% Median
3 21% 37%  
4 13% 16%  
5 2% 2%  
6 0.5% 0.8% Last Result
7 0.1% 0.2%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Independents 4 Change

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents 4 Change page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.7% 100%  
1 8% 99.3%  
2 64% 91% Median
3 27% 27%  
4 0% 0% Last Result

Social Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Social Democrats page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 41% 100%  
1 49% 59% Median
2 6% 10%  
3 4% 4% Last Result
4 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael – Fianna Fáil 93 111 100% 106–115 104–116 102–116 99–118
Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin 67 83 81% 80–88 78–89 77–91 74–93
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party – Social Democrats 61 68 0% 63–73 62–74 60–75 57–77
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party 58 67 0% 62–72 61–73 59–74 56–76
Fine Gael – Labour Party 56 62 0% 57–68 55–68 53–70 50–71
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party – Social Democrats 56 62 0% 58–67 57–68 55–69 53–72
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 51 64 0% 58–67 57–67 56–68 52–70
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party 53 62 0% 58–66 57–67 55–68 53–71
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 46 57 0% 53–62 52–63 51–64 48–66
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party 51 57 0% 53–61 52–62 51–63 48–66
Fine Gael 49 59 0% 53–62 51–63 50–63 46–65

Fine Gael – Fianna Fáil

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
93 0% 100% Last Result
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 99.9%  
97 0.2% 99.9%  
98 0.2% 99.7%  
99 0.1% 99.5%  
100 0.8% 99.4%  
101 0.4% 98.6%  
102 0.8% 98%  
103 2% 97%  
104 3% 96%  
105 2% 93%  
106 4% 91%  
107 10% 87%  
108 7% 77%  
109 7% 71%  
110 10% 63%  
111 8% 53%  
112 13% 45% Median
113 11% 32%  
114 5% 21%  
115 10% 16%  
116 4% 5%  
117 0.6% 2%  
118 0.8% 1.1%  
119 0.2% 0.3%  
120 0.1% 0.1%  
121 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0.1% 100%  
73 0.2% 99.9%  
74 0.2% 99.6%  
75 0.5% 99.4%  
76 0.6% 98.9%  
77 2% 98%  
78 2% 96%  
79 4% 95%  
80 9% 91%  
81 11% 81% Majority
82 7% 70%  
83 15% 63%  
84 9% 48%  
85 8% 39% Median
86 12% 31%  
87 4% 19%  
88 7% 15%  
89 2% 7%  
90 1.5% 5%  
91 2% 4%  
92 0.7% 1.3%  
93 0.4% 0.6%  
94 0.1% 0.2%  
95 0% 0.1%  
96 0.1% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party – Social Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0% 100%  
55 0.1% 99.9%  
56 0.1% 99.8%  
57 0.6% 99.7%  
58 0.5% 99.1%  
59 0.5% 98.6%  
60 1.3% 98%  
61 0.8% 97% Last Result
62 4% 96%  
63 3% 92%  
64 7% 88%  
65 6% 81%  
66 9% 75%  
67 7% 66%  
68 13% 60%  
69 9% 47%  
70 10% 38% Median
71 8% 28%  
72 8% 20%  
73 7% 12%  
74 2% 5%  
75 1.0% 3%  
76 2% 2%  
77 0.4% 0.7%  
78 0.1% 0.3%  
79 0.1% 0.2%  
80 0% 0.1%  
81 0% 0% Majority

Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0% 100%  
54 0.2% 99.9%  
55 0.2% 99.7%  
56 0.3% 99.5%  
57 0.3% 99.2%  
58 0.7% 98.9% Last Result
59 1.0% 98%  
60 1.3% 97%  
61 3% 96%  
62 5% 93%  
63 5% 89%  
64 7% 84%  
65 7% 77%  
66 7% 70%  
67 13% 62%  
68 8% 49%  
69 8% 41% Median
70 12% 33%  
71 9% 21%  
72 5% 12%  
73 4% 8%  
74 1.1% 3%  
75 0.8% 2%  
76 1.1% 2%  
77 0.2% 0.4%  
78 0.1% 0.2%  
79 0% 0.1%  
80 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0% 99.9%  
48 0.1% 99.9%  
49 0.3% 99.8%  
50 0.2% 99.5%  
51 0.3% 99.3%  
52 0.8% 99.0%  
53 1.0% 98%  
54 0.9% 97%  
55 2% 96%  
56 2% 95% Last Result
57 6% 93%  
58 4% 87%  
59 7% 83%  
60 7% 76%  
61 6% 69%  
62 14% 63%  
63 7% 49%  
64 8% 42% Median
65 8% 34%  
66 10% 26%  
67 5% 16%  
68 6% 11%  
69 2% 4%  
70 1.1% 3%  
71 1.3% 2%  
72 0.1% 0.4%  
73 0.2% 0.3%  
74 0.1% 0.1%  
75 0% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party – Social Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100%  
52 0.3% 99.9%  
53 0.3% 99.6%  
54 0.6% 99.4%  
55 1.5% 98.8%  
56 0.9% 97% Last Result
57 2% 96%  
58 5% 94%  
59 8% 89%  
60 11% 82%  
61 11% 70%  
62 10% 60%  
63 5% 49%  
64 11% 44% Median
65 14% 33%  
66 5% 20%  
67 7% 15%  
68 4% 8%  
69 2% 4%  
70 0.6% 2%  
71 0.4% 1.2%  
72 0.5% 0.8%  
73 0.2% 0.3%  
74 0.1% 0.2%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.2% 99.9% Last Result
52 0.3% 99.7%  
53 0.4% 99.4%  
54 0.5% 99.0%  
55 0.6% 98.6%  
56 2% 98%  
57 5% 96%  
58 3% 91%  
59 5% 88%  
60 4% 83%  
61 8% 78%  
62 8% 70%  
63 12% 62%  
64 14% 50% Median
65 17% 36%  
66 7% 19%  
67 8% 12%  
68 2% 4%  
69 1.1% 2%  
70 0.5% 0.9%  
71 0.2% 0.4%  
72 0.1% 0.2%  
73 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0% 100%  
51 0.3% 99.9%  
52 0.1% 99.6%  
53 0.4% 99.5% Last Result
54 1.1% 99.1%  
55 1.4% 98%  
56 1.3% 97%  
57 5% 95%  
58 7% 91%  
59 10% 83%  
60 7% 73%  
61 16% 66%  
62 5% 50%  
63 9% 45% Median
64 9% 36%  
65 13% 27%  
66 5% 14%  
67 4% 9%  
68 3% 5%  
69 0.5% 2%  
70 0.4% 1.3%  
71 0.5% 0.9%  
72 0.2% 0.4%  
73 0.1% 0.2%  
74 0% 0.1%  
75 0% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0% 100% Last Result
47 0.4% 99.9%  
48 0.2% 99.6%  
49 0.9% 99.4%  
50 0.8% 98%  
51 2% 98%  
52 3% 96%  
53 5% 93%  
54 8% 87%  
55 11% 79%  
56 6% 68%  
57 13% 62%  
58 11% 49% Median
59 8% 37%  
60 10% 30%  
61 7% 20%  
62 6% 13%  
63 4% 8%  
64 2% 4%  
65 1.0% 2%  
66 0.6% 1.0%  
67 0.2% 0.4%  
68 0.2% 0.2%  
69 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0% 100%  
46 0.3% 99.9%  
47 0.1% 99.7%  
48 0.4% 99.5%  
49 0.5% 99.2%  
50 0.9% 98.7%  
51 2% 98% Last Result
52 4% 96%  
53 8% 91%  
54 8% 84%  
55 10% 75%  
56 12% 65%  
57 8% 53%  
58 10% 45% Median
59 9% 35%  
60 12% 26%  
61 6% 14%  
62 4% 9%  
63 3% 5%  
64 1.1% 2%  
65 0.3% 0.9%  
66 0.2% 0.5%  
67 0.1% 0.3%  
68 0.1% 0.2%  
69 0% 0.1%  
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Fine Gael

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0% 100%  
45 0.1% 99.9%  
46 0.3% 99.8%  
47 0.3% 99.5%  
48 0.4% 99.2%  
49 0.6% 98.8% Last Result
50 1.1% 98%  
51 2% 97%  
52 3% 95%  
53 4% 91%  
54 5% 88%  
55 4% 83%  
56 7% 78%  
57 6% 71%  
58 13% 65%  
59 13% 52% Median
60 19% 39%  
61 7% 20%  
62 7% 12%  
63 3% 5%  
64 1.3% 2%  
65 0.7% 1.1%  
66 0.2% 0.4%  
67 0.1% 0.2%  
68 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations