Opinion Poll by Red C for The Sunday Business Post, 17–24 October 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fine Gael | 25.5% | 32.0% | 30.1–33.9% | 29.6–34.5% | 29.2–35.0% | 28.3–35.9% |
| Fianna Fáil | 24.3% | 24.0% | 22.3–25.8% | 21.9–26.3% | 21.4–26.7% | 20.7–27.6% |
| Independent | 15.9% | 12.7% | 11.4–14.1% | 11.1–14.6% | 10.8–14.9% | 10.2–15.6% |
| Sinn Féin | 13.8% | 11.0% | 9.8–12.4% | 9.5–12.8% | 9.2–13.1% | 8.7–13.8% |
| Green Party/Comhaontas Glas | 2.7% | 7.0% | 6.1–8.2% | 5.8–8.5% | 5.6–8.8% | 5.2–9.3% |
| Labour Party | 6.6% | 4.0% | 3.3–4.9% | 3.1–5.2% | 2.9–5.4% | 2.7–5.9% |
| Social Democrats | 3.0% | 2.0% | 1.5–2.7% | 1.4–2.9% | 1.3–3.1% | 1.1–3.4% |
| Independents 4 Change | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.2–2.2% | 1.1–2.4% | 1.0–2.6% | 0.8–2.9% |
| Solidarity–People Before Profit | 3.9% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.7% | 0.5–1.8% | 0.4–2.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fine Gael | 49 | 65 | 61–70 | 58–71 | 58–72 | 56–73 |
| Fianna Fáil | 44 | 48 | 43–52 | 41–54 | 40–54 | 38–55 |
| Independent | 19 | 14 | 11–15 | 11–16 | 10–16 | 8–16 |
| Sinn Féin | 23 | 17 | 15–22 | 14–24 | 13–25 | 9–26 |
| Green Party/Comhaontas Glas | 2 | 7 | 5–9 | 5–10 | 5–12 | 4–13 |
| Labour Party | 7 | 1 | 0–3 | 0–4 | 0–5 | 0–6 |
| Social Democrats | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2–4 |
| Independents 4 Change | 4 | 4 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 2–5 | 0–5 |
| Solidarity–People Before Profit | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Fine Gael
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fine Gael page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 49 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 50 | 0% | 100% | |
| 51 | 0% | 100% | |
| 52 | 0% | 100% | |
| 53 | 0% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 56 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 57 | 1.0% | 99.3% | |
| 58 | 5% | 98% | |
| 59 | 0.4% | 93% | |
| 60 | 0.5% | 93% | |
| 61 | 2% | 92% | |
| 62 | 2% | 90% | |
| 63 | 7% | 88% | |
| 64 | 3% | 81% | |
| 65 | 33% | 78% | Median |
| 66 | 9% | 45% | |
| 67 | 7% | 36% | |
| 68 | 3% | 30% | |
| 69 | 10% | 27% | |
| 70 | 11% | 17% | |
| 71 | 3% | 6% | |
| 72 | 3% | 3% | |
| 73 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% |
Fianna Fáil
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fianna Fáil page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 37 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 39 | 0.7% | 99.5% | |
| 40 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 41 | 6% | 97% | |
| 42 | 0.9% | 92% | |
| 43 | 2% | 91% | |
| 44 | 9% | 88% | Last Result |
| 45 | 5% | 80% | |
| 46 | 4% | 75% | |
| 47 | 3% | 71% | |
| 48 | 28% | 68% | Median |
| 49 | 24% | 39% | |
| 50 | 3% | 15% | |
| 51 | 2% | 13% | |
| 52 | 2% | 11% | |
| 53 | 3% | 8% | |
| 54 | 4% | 5% | |
| 55 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% |
Independent
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independent page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 9 | 1.2% | 99.3% | |
| 10 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 11 | 12% | 97% | |
| 12 | 8% | 85% | |
| 13 | 21% | 77% | |
| 14 | 11% | 55% | Median |
| 15 | 37% | 44% | |
| 16 | 7% | 7% | |
| 17 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Sinn Féin
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinn Féin page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 11 | 0.2% | 99.4% | |
| 12 | 0.7% | 99.2% | |
| 13 | 3% | 98% | |
| 14 | 4% | 96% | |
| 15 | 10% | 92% | |
| 16 | 28% | 81% | |
| 17 | 26% | 53% | Median |
| 18 | 4% | 27% | |
| 19 | 8% | 23% | |
| 20 | 3% | 15% | |
| 21 | 0.7% | 12% | |
| 22 | 4% | 11% | |
| 23 | 0.5% | 7% | Last Result |
| 24 | 3% | 6% | |
| 25 | 2% | 4% | |
| 26 | 1.0% | 1.2% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 29 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% |
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party/Comhaontas Glas page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 3 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 4 | 1.4% | 99.9% | |
| 5 | 16% | 98% | |
| 6 | 12% | 83% | |
| 7 | 31% | 71% | Median |
| 8 | 23% | 40% | |
| 9 | 10% | 17% | |
| 10 | 3% | 7% | |
| 11 | 2% | 5% | |
| 12 | 2% | 3% | |
| 13 | 0.7% | 1.1% | |
| 14 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 15 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
Labour Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 38% | 100% | |
| 1 | 29% | 62% | Median |
| 2 | 8% | 33% | |
| 3 | 16% | 24% | |
| 4 | 5% | 8% | |
| 5 | 2% | 3% | |
| 6 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 7 | 0.2% | 0.3% | Last Result |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Social Democrats
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Social Democrats page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 2 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 3 | 97% | 99.3% | Last Result, Median |
| 4 | 2% | 2% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Independents 4 Change
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents 4 Change page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 1 | 1.1% | 99.3% | |
| 2 | 1.3% | 98% | |
| 3 | 7% | 97% | |
| 4 | 65% | 90% | Last Result, Median |
| 5 | 25% | 25% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Solidarity–People Before Profit
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Solidarity–People Before Profit page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.6% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 2 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fine Gael – Fianna Fáil | 93 | 114 | 100% | 108–118 | 106–118 | 106–120 | 104–121 |
| Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party – Social Democrats | 61 | 77 | 21% | 74–83 | 70–84 | 70–84 | 68–85 |
| Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party | 58 | 74 | 10% | 71–80 | 67–81 | 67–81 | 65–82 |
| Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas | 51 | 73 | 0.2% | 69–78 | 65–78 | 64–78 | 64–80 |
| Fine Gael – Labour Party | 56 | 66 | 0% | 63–72 | 61–73 | 59–74 | 58–75 |
| Fine Gael | 49 | 65 | 0% | 61–70 | 58–71 | 58–72 | 56–73 |
| Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin | 67 | 65 | 0% | 59–70 | 59–70 | 58–71 | 55–72 |
| Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party – Social Democrats | 56 | 59 | 0% | 54–64 | 52–65 | 51–66 | 49–68 |
| Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party | 53 | 56 | 0% | 51–61 | 49–62 | 48–63 | 46–65 |
| Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas | 46 | 56 | 0% | 50–60 | 48–61 | 46–61 | 45–64 |
| Fianna Fáil – Labour Party | 51 | 49 | 0% | 45–53 | 43–55 | 41–55 | 40–56 |
Fine Gael – Fianna Fáil
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 93 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 94 | 0% | 100% | |
| 95 | 0% | 100% | |
| 96 | 0% | 100% | |
| 97 | 0% | 100% | |
| 98 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 99 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 100 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 101 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 102 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 103 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 104 | 0.8% | 99.5% | |
| 105 | 0.4% | 98.7% | |
| 106 | 7% | 98% | |
| 107 | 0.2% | 91% | |
| 108 | 2% | 91% | |
| 109 | 5% | 88% | |
| 110 | 1.3% | 83% | |
| 111 | 3% | 82% | |
| 112 | 5% | 79% | |
| 113 | 21% | 74% | Median |
| 114 | 26% | 53% | |
| 115 | 5% | 27% | |
| 116 | 1.4% | 22% | |
| 117 | 7% | 20% | |
| 118 | 9% | 14% | |
| 119 | 2% | 4% | |
| 120 | 2% | 3% | |
| 121 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 122 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 123 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 124 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 125 | 0% | 0% |
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party – Social Democrats
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 61 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 62 | 0% | 100% | |
| 63 | 0% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0% | 100% | |
| 65 | 0% | 100% | |
| 66 | 0% | 100% | |
| 67 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 68 | 1.2% | 99.8% | |
| 69 | 0.2% | 98.6% | |
| 70 | 4% | 98% | |
| 71 | 1.5% | 94% | |
| 72 | 0.7% | 93% | |
| 73 | 0.9% | 92% | |
| 74 | 7% | 91% | |
| 75 | 23% | 84% | |
| 76 | 2% | 61% | Median |
| 77 | 15% | 59% | |
| 78 | 11% | 44% | |
| 79 | 8% | 34% | |
| 80 | 4% | 25% | |
| 81 | 7% | 21% | Majority |
| 82 | 2% | 14% | |
| 83 | 2% | 12% | |
| 84 | 7% | 10% | |
| 85 | 2% | 2% | |
| 86 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% |
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 58 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 59 | 0% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0% | 100% | |
| 63 | 0% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 65 | 1.2% | 99.8% | |
| 66 | 0.2% | 98.6% | |
| 67 | 4% | 98% | |
| 68 | 1.5% | 94% | |
| 69 | 1.1% | 93% | |
| 70 | 0.5% | 91% | |
| 71 | 7% | 91% | |
| 72 | 23% | 84% | |
| 73 | 2% | 61% | Median |
| 74 | 15% | 59% | |
| 75 | 11% | 45% | |
| 76 | 8% | 33% | |
| 77 | 4% | 25% | |
| 78 | 7% | 21% | |
| 79 | 2% | 14% | |
| 80 | 2% | 12% | |
| 81 | 7% | 10% | Majority |
| 82 | 2% | 2% | |
| 83 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0% |
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 51 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 52 | 0% | 100% | |
| 53 | 0% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0% | 100% | |
| 56 | 0% | 100% | |
| 57 | 0% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0% | 100% | |
| 63 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 64 | 4% | 99.6% | |
| 65 | 1.2% | 95% | |
| 66 | 0.1% | 94% | |
| 67 | 0.9% | 94% | |
| 68 | 1.0% | 93% | |
| 69 | 3% | 92% | |
| 70 | 6% | 89% | |
| 71 | 2% | 83% | |
| 72 | 29% | 81% | Median |
| 73 | 14% | 52% | |
| 74 | 6% | 38% | |
| 75 | 9% | 32% | |
| 76 | 3% | 23% | |
| 77 | 5% | 19% | |
| 78 | 12% | 15% | |
| 79 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 80 | 1.0% | 1.2% | |
| 81 | 0.1% | 0.2% | Majority |
| 82 | 0% | 0% |
Fine Gael – Labour Party
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 54 | 0% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 56 | 0% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 57 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 58 | 2% | 99.5% | |
| 59 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 60 | 0.7% | 97% | |
| 61 | 5% | 96% | |
| 62 | 1.3% | 91% | |
| 63 | 2% | 90% | |
| 64 | 7% | 89% | |
| 65 | 20% | 81% | |
| 66 | 12% | 61% | Median |
| 67 | 11% | 49% | |
| 68 | 1.4% | 38% | |
| 69 | 6% | 37% | |
| 70 | 8% | 31% | |
| 71 | 8% | 23% | |
| 72 | 9% | 15% | |
| 73 | 2% | 6% | |
| 74 | 2% | 3% | |
| 75 | 1.3% | 1.4% | |
| 76 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 77 | 0% | 0% |
Fine Gael
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 49 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 50 | 0% | 100% | |
| 51 | 0% | 100% | |
| 52 | 0% | 100% | |
| 53 | 0% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 56 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 57 | 1.0% | 99.3% | |
| 58 | 5% | 98% | |
| 59 | 0.4% | 93% | |
| 60 | 0.5% | 93% | |
| 61 | 2% | 92% | |
| 62 | 2% | 90% | |
| 63 | 7% | 88% | |
| 64 | 3% | 81% | |
| 65 | 33% | 78% | Median |
| 66 | 9% | 45% | |
| 67 | 7% | 36% | |
| 68 | 3% | 30% | |
| 69 | 10% | 27% | |
| 70 | 11% | 17% | |
| 71 | 3% | 6% | |
| 72 | 3% | 3% | |
| 73 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% |
Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 54 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 56 | 0.4% | 99.5% | |
| 57 | 0.7% | 99.1% | |
| 58 | 2% | 98% | |
| 59 | 9% | 97% | |
| 60 | 3% | 88% | |
| 61 | 1.4% | 84% | |
| 62 | 7% | 83% | |
| 63 | 4% | 76% | |
| 64 | 22% | 72% | |
| 65 | 2% | 50% | Median |
| 66 | 26% | 48% | |
| 67 | 0.9% | 22% | Last Result |
| 68 | 5% | 21% | |
| 69 | 2% | 16% | |
| 70 | 11% | 15% | |
| 71 | 3% | 4% | |
| 72 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 73 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 74 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 75 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% |
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party – Social Democrats
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 47 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 48 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 49 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 50 | 0.9% | 99.1% | |
| 51 | 2% | 98% | |
| 52 | 2% | 96% | |
| 53 | 4% | 95% | |
| 54 | 4% | 91% | |
| 55 | 1.3% | 87% | |
| 56 | 2% | 86% | Last Result |
| 57 | 5% | 84% | |
| 58 | 2% | 79% | |
| 59 | 33% | 77% | Median |
| 60 | 21% | 43% | |
| 61 | 10% | 22% | |
| 62 | 0.8% | 12% | |
| 63 | 0.9% | 12% | |
| 64 | 1.4% | 11% | |
| 65 | 5% | 9% | |
| 66 | 3% | 4% | |
| 67 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 68 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 69 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 70 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% |
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 44 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 45 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 46 | 0.7% | 99.7% | |
| 47 | 0.9% | 99.0% | |
| 48 | 2% | 98% | |
| 49 | 1.3% | 96% | |
| 50 | 4% | 95% | |
| 51 | 4% | 91% | |
| 52 | 0.8% | 87% | |
| 53 | 2% | 86% | Last Result |
| 54 | 5% | 84% | |
| 55 | 2% | 79% | |
| 56 | 33% | 77% | Median |
| 57 | 21% | 43% | |
| 58 | 10% | 22% | |
| 59 | 0.7% | 12% | |
| 60 | 1.2% | 12% | |
| 61 | 1.3% | 10% | |
| 62 | 5% | 9% | |
| 63 | 2% | 4% | |
| 64 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 65 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 66 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 67 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% |
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 43 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 44 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 45 | 1.0% | 99.6% | |
| 46 | 2% | 98.7% | Last Result |
| 47 | 0.4% | 97% | |
| 48 | 4% | 96% | |
| 49 | 2% | 92% | |
| 50 | 3% | 90% | |
| 51 | 4% | 87% | |
| 52 | 1.1% | 83% | |
| 53 | 13% | 82% | |
| 54 | 8% | 69% | |
| 55 | 6% | 61% | Median |
| 56 | 37% | 55% | |
| 57 | 3% | 18% | |
| 58 | 3% | 14% | |
| 59 | 0.7% | 11% | |
| 60 | 1.2% | 10% | |
| 61 | 7% | 9% | |
| 62 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 63 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 64 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 66 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% |
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 38 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 39 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 40 | 0.9% | 99.5% | |
| 41 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 42 | 1.0% | 96% | |
| 43 | 2% | 95% | |
| 44 | 3% | 93% | |
| 45 | 4% | 90% | |
| 46 | 2% | 86% | |
| 47 | 10% | 84% | |
| 48 | 7% | 74% | |
| 49 | 39% | 67% | Median |
| 50 | 3% | 28% | |
| 51 | 7% | 25% | Last Result |
| 52 | 7% | 18% | |
| 53 | 3% | 11% | |
| 54 | 3% | 8% | |
| 55 | 5% | 6% | |
| 56 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 57 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Red C
- Commissioner(s): The Sunday Business Post
- Fieldwork period: 17–24 October 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 131,072
- Error estimate: 0.96%