Opinion Poll by Behaviour and Attitudes for The Sunday Times, 1–12 November 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael 25.5% 27.0% 25.2–28.9% 24.6–29.5% 24.2–29.9% 23.4–30.9%
Fianna Fáil 24.3% 24.9% 23.2–26.8% 22.7–27.3% 22.2–27.8% 21.4–28.7%
Sinn Féin 13.8% 17.0% 15.5–18.7% 15.1–19.2% 14.7–19.6% 14.0–20.4%
Independent 15.9% 9.3% 8.2–10.7% 7.9–11.0% 7.6–11.4% 7.1–12.0%
Labour Party 6.6% 6.0% 5.1–7.1% 4.8–7.4% 4.6–7.7% 4.2–8.3%
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2.7% 6.0% 5.1–7.1% 4.8–7.4% 4.6–7.7% 4.2–8.3%
Solidarity–People Before Profit 3.9% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.3–2.9% 1.2–3.1% 1.0–3.5%
Social Democrats 3.0% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.3–2.9% 1.2–3.1% 1.0–3.5%
Independents 4 Change 1.5% 1.2% 0.8–1.8% 0.7–2.0% 0.7–2.1% 0.5–2.5%
Renua Ireland 2.2% 0.1% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7% 0.1–0.8% 0.0–1.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael 49 54 45–58 44–60 44–61 42–61
Fianna Fáil 44 47 41–51 40–53 37–54 35–55
Sinn Féin 23 34 32–36 31–37 31–37 28–38
Independent 19 6 3–11 3–14 3–15 3–15
Labour Party 7 8 6–15 4–16 2–16 2–18
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2 5 4–7 4–7 3–8 2–9
Solidarity–People Before Profit 6 1 0–2 0–2 0–2 0–3
Social Democrats 3 3 2–3 1–3 1–3 1–4
Independents 4 Change 4 2 2–3 2–3 2–3 1–3
Renua Ireland 0 0 0 0 0 0–1

Fine Gael

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fine Gael page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.1% 99.9%  
42 0.8% 99.8%  
43 0.8% 99.0%  
44 5% 98%  
45 3% 93%  
46 3% 90%  
47 2% 87%  
48 6% 84%  
49 4% 79% Last Result
50 6% 75%  
51 4% 69%  
52 3% 65%  
53 9% 62%  
54 14% 53% Median
55 8% 39%  
56 7% 32%  
57 13% 25%  
58 6% 12%  
59 1.2% 7%  
60 3% 5%  
61 2% 3%  
62 0.3% 0.5%  
63 0.1% 0.2%  
64 0% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fianna Fáil page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0% 100%  
34 0.3% 99.9%  
35 0.4% 99.7%  
36 1.2% 99.3%  
37 0.6% 98%  
38 0.7% 97%  
39 1.0% 97%  
40 3% 96%  
41 8% 93%  
42 2% 85%  
43 15% 83%  
44 6% 68% Last Result
45 7% 63%  
46 5% 56%  
47 3% 51% Median
48 10% 48%  
49 12% 37%  
50 11% 25%  
51 5% 14%  
52 1.5% 9%  
53 3% 8%  
54 3% 4%  
55 2% 2%  
56 0.2% 0.2%  
57 0% 0%  

Sinn Féin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinn Féin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0% 99.9%  
25 0.1% 99.9%  
26 0.2% 99.8%  
27 0.1% 99.7%  
28 0.2% 99.5%  
29 0.1% 99.4%  
30 0.6% 99.2%  
31 7% 98.6%  
32 18% 92%  
33 10% 73%  
34 23% 63% Median
35 21% 41%  
36 15% 20%  
37 4% 5%  
38 1.4% 2%  
39 0.4% 0.4%  
40 0% 0%  

Independent

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independent page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 28% 100%  
4 15% 72%  
5 4% 57%  
6 7% 52% Median
7 11% 45%  
8 9% 34%  
9 6% 25%  
10 8% 19%  
11 2% 11%  
12 2% 8%  
13 1.4% 7%  
14 0.8% 6%  
15 4% 5%  
16 0.3% 0.3%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.3% 100%  
2 2% 99.7%  
3 2% 97%  
4 3% 96%  
5 2% 92%  
6 8% 90%  
7 19% 82% Last Result
8 15% 62% Median
9 14% 48%  
10 7% 34%  
11 4% 27%  
12 5% 23%  
13 1.1% 19%  
14 1.4% 17%  
15 11% 16%  
16 3% 5%  
17 1.4% 2%  
18 0.7% 0.9%  
19 0.2% 0.2%  
20 0% 0%  

Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party/Comhaontas Glas page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 1.0% 100% Last Result
3 4% 99.0%  
4 19% 95%  
5 30% 76% Median
6 8% 46%  
7 33% 37%  
8 3% 4%  
9 0.5% 0.9%  
10 0.2% 0.3%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Solidarity–People Before Profit

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Solidarity–People Before Profit page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 41% 100%  
1 47% 59% Median
2 9% 11%  
3 2% 2%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0% Last Result

Social Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Social Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 6% 99.9%  
2 18% 94%  
3 75% 75% Last Result, Median
4 0.6% 0.7%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Independents 4 Change

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents 4 Change page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100%  
1 1.0% 99.8%  
2 54% 98.8% Median
3 45% 45%  
4 0% 0% Last Result

Renua Ireland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Renua Ireland page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.3% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.7% 0.7%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael – Fianna Fáil 93 100 100% 92–104 91–106 90–107 88–110
Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin 67 81 50% 73–86 73–88 72–89 69–90
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party – Social Democrats 61 71 0.3% 61–77 60–77 59–79 57–80
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party 58 68 0.1% 58–74 57–74 57–76 54–77
Fine Gael – Labour Party 56 63 0% 52–69 51–70 51–71 47–73
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party – Social Democrats 56 65 0% 58–69 57–70 55–70 53–73
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party 53 62 0% 55–66 54–67 52–67 50–70
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 51 59 0% 52–63 51–65 50–66 48–67
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party 51 56 0% 50–59 49–61 47–62 43–68
Fine Gael 49 54 0% 45–58 44–60 44–61 42–61
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 46 52 0% 45–58 44–59 43–61 40–62

Fine Gael – Fianna Fáil

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 99.9%  
86 0.1% 99.9%  
87 0.3% 99.9%  
88 0.3% 99.5%  
89 0.3% 99.3%  
90 2% 98.9%  
91 4% 97%  
92 5% 93%  
93 0.6% 88% Last Result
94 2% 88%  
95 3% 86%  
96 15% 83%  
97 4% 68%  
98 2% 64%  
99 9% 62%  
100 14% 53%  
101 5% 39% Median
102 9% 34%  
103 15% 25%  
104 0.6% 10%  
105 3% 10%  
106 4% 6%  
107 0.6% 3%  
108 1.2% 2%  
109 0.2% 0.8%  
110 0.2% 0.5%  
111 0.2% 0.4%  
112 0.2% 0.2%  
113 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0.3% 100%  
69 0.6% 99.7%  
70 0.5% 99.0%  
71 0.9% 98.5%  
72 1.1% 98%  
73 7% 96%  
74 0.8% 89%  
75 2% 88%  
76 13% 87%  
77 2% 73%  
78 6% 71%  
79 9% 65%  
80 5% 56%  
81 5% 50% Median, Majority
82 8% 45%  
83 14% 37%  
84 7% 23%  
85 4% 16%  
86 4% 12%  
87 0.6% 8%  
88 3% 7%  
89 2% 4%  
90 2% 2%  
91 0.4% 0.4%  
92 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party – Social Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 1.2% 99.9%  
58 0.4% 98.7%  
59 2% 98%  
60 3% 96%  
61 5% 93% Last Result
62 1.0% 89%  
63 3% 88%  
64 2% 84%  
65 7% 82%  
66 1.0% 75%  
67 4% 74%  
68 1.0% 70%  
69 2% 69%  
70 17% 67% Median
71 4% 50%  
72 9% 46%  
73 4% 37%  
74 3% 33%  
75 14% 30%  
76 4% 16%  
77 7% 12%  
78 2% 4%  
79 0.5% 3%  
80 2% 2%  
81 0.1% 0.3% Majority
82 0.1% 0.2%  
83 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100%  
54 1.2% 99.9%  
55 0.4% 98.7%  
56 0.7% 98%  
57 3% 98%  
58 6% 95% Last Result
59 0.9% 89%  
60 3% 88%  
61 0.8% 84%  
62 6% 83%  
63 3% 77%  
64 3% 74%  
65 2% 71%  
66 2% 69%  
67 3% 67% Median
68 17% 64%  
69 9% 47%  
70 4% 38%  
71 3% 34%  
72 14% 31%  
73 4% 17%  
74 8% 13%  
75 2% 5%  
76 0.6% 3%  
77 2% 2%  
78 0.2% 0.4%  
79 0.1% 0.2%  
80 0.1% 0.2%  
81 0.1% 0.1% Majority
82 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0% 100%  
47 1.2% 99.9%  
48 0.3% 98.8%  
49 0.1% 98.5%  
50 0.7% 98%  
51 5% 98%  
52 3% 93%  
53 5% 90%  
54 0.7% 85%  
55 3% 85%  
56 3% 82% Last Result
57 2% 78%  
58 2% 76%  
59 4% 75%  
60 2% 71%  
61 14% 69%  
62 4% 54% Median
63 2% 51%  
64 11% 48%  
65 4% 37%  
66 10% 33%  
67 5% 23%  
68 7% 18%  
69 2% 11%  
70 6% 9%  
71 0.4% 3%  
72 1.4% 2%  
73 0.6% 0.9%  
74 0.2% 0.4%  
75 0.1% 0.2%  
76 0.1% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party – Social Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0% 100%  
47 0% 99.9%  
48 0% 99.9%  
49 0.1% 99.9%  
50 0.1% 99.8%  
51 0.1% 99.8%  
52 0.1% 99.6%  
53 0.5% 99.5%  
54 0.3% 99.1%  
55 2% 98.8%  
56 1.1% 97% Last Result
57 0.8% 95%  
58 5% 95%  
59 2% 89%  
60 3% 87%  
61 9% 84%  
62 6% 75%  
63 14% 69% Median
64 3% 55%  
65 28% 52%  
66 6% 24%  
67 4% 18%  
68 3% 14%  
69 5% 11%  
70 4% 6%  
71 1.2% 2%  
72 0.4% 1.1%  
73 0.3% 0.7%  
74 0.2% 0.3%  
75 0.1% 0.2%  
76 0% 0.1%  
77 0.1% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 99.9%  
45 0% 99.9%  
46 0.1% 99.9%  
47 0.1% 99.8%  
48 0.1% 99.8%  
49 0.1% 99.6%  
50 0.4% 99.5%  
51 0.3% 99.1%  
52 2% 98.8%  
53 1.2% 97% Last Result
54 0.9% 96%  
55 5% 95%  
56 2% 90%  
57 3% 88%  
58 9% 86%  
59 6% 77%  
60 12% 71% Median
61 6% 59%  
62 15% 53%  
63 19% 38%  
64 3% 19%  
65 4% 16%  
66 5% 12%  
67 4% 6%  
68 0.8% 2%  
69 0.3% 2%  
70 0.9% 1.3%  
71 0.2% 0.4%  
72 0.1% 0.2%  
73 0.1% 0.1%  
74 0.1% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.1% 99.9%  
47 0.1% 99.8%  
48 0.2% 99.7%  
49 1.2% 99.5%  
50 2% 98%  
51 6% 97% Last Result
52 4% 91%  
53 7% 87%  
54 3% 80%  
55 6% 77%  
56 5% 70%  
57 8% 66%  
58 3% 58%  
59 8% 55% Median
60 3% 46%  
61 16% 43%  
62 5% 27%  
63 13% 22%  
64 4% 10%  
65 3% 6%  
66 2% 3%  
67 0.4% 0.8%  
68 0.3% 0.4%  
69 0.1% 0.2%  
70 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 99.9%  
40 0% 99.9%  
41 0.1% 99.9%  
42 0.1% 99.8%  
43 0.2% 99.7%  
44 0.2% 99.5%  
45 0.2% 99.3%  
46 0.2% 99.1%  
47 2% 98.8%  
48 1.4% 96%  
49 1.0% 95%  
50 5% 94%  
51 2% 89% Last Result
52 12% 87%  
53 2% 76%  
54 3% 73%  
55 11% 70% Median
56 23% 59%  
57 7% 37%  
58 12% 29%  
59 8% 18%  
60 4% 9%  
61 1.4% 5%  
62 2% 4%  
63 0.5% 2%  
64 0.3% 1.3%  
65 0.3% 1.0%  
66 0.1% 0.7%  
67 0% 0.6%  
68 0.5% 0.6%  
69 0% 0.1%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Fine Gael

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.1% 99.9%  
42 0.8% 99.8%  
43 0.8% 99.0%  
44 5% 98%  
45 3% 93%  
46 3% 90%  
47 2% 87%  
48 6% 84%  
49 4% 79% Last Result
50 6% 75%  
51 4% 69%  
52 3% 65%  
53 9% 62%  
54 14% 53% Median
55 8% 39%  
56 7% 32%  
57 13% 25%  
58 6% 12%  
59 1.2% 7%  
60 3% 5%  
61 2% 3%  
62 0.3% 0.5%  
63 0.1% 0.2%  
64 0% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.2% 99.8%  
40 0.3% 99.7%  
41 0.9% 99.3%  
42 0.5% 98%  
43 1.2% 98%  
44 2% 97%  
45 8% 94%  
46 2% 87% Last Result
47 4% 85%  
48 1.2% 81%  
49 14% 79%  
50 10% 66%  
51 4% 56%  
52 3% 52% Median
53 5% 49%  
54 2% 44%  
55 14% 41%  
56 13% 27%  
57 3% 15%  
58 6% 12%  
59 2% 5%  
60 0.5% 3%  
61 1.3% 3%  
62 1.2% 1.3%  
63 0.1% 0.1%  
64 0% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations