Opinion Poll by Ireland Thinks for The Irish Daily Mail, 24 December 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fine Gael | 25.5% | 28.0% | 26.6–29.5% | 26.2–29.9% | 25.8–30.3% | 25.2–31.0% |
| Fianna Fáil | 24.3% | 25.0% | 23.6–26.4% | 23.2–26.8% | 22.9–27.2% | 22.3–27.9% |
| Sinn Féin | 13.8% | 15.0% | 13.9–16.2% | 13.6–16.6% | 13.3–16.9% | 12.8–17.5% |
| Independent | 15.9% | 11.9% | 10.9–13.0% | 10.6–13.3% | 10.3–13.5% | 9.9–14.1% |
| Green Party/Comhaontas Glas | 2.7% | 7.0% | 6.2–7.9% | 6.0–8.2% | 5.8–8.4% | 5.5–8.8% |
| Labour Party | 6.6% | 5.0% | 4.3–5.8% | 4.2–6.0% | 4.0–6.2% | 3.7–6.6% |
| Solidarity–People Before Profit | 3.9% | 3.0% | 2.5–3.7% | 2.4–3.8% | 2.3–4.0% | 2.1–4.3% |
| Social Democrats | 3.0% | 3.0% | 2.5–3.7% | 2.4–3.8% | 2.3–4.0% | 2.1–4.3% |
| Independents 4 Change | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.2–2.0% | 1.1–2.1% | 1.0–2.3% | 0.9–2.5% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fine Gael | 49 | 53 | 47–58 | 46–60 | 44–60 | 42–61 |
| Fianna Fáil | 44 | 44 | 39–48 | 37–51 | 36–53 | 34–54 |
| Sinn Féin | 23 | 32 | 26–33 | 24–33 | 23–34 | 22–35 |
| Independent | 19 | 14 | 11–17 | 10–17 | 9–17 | 6–17 |
| Green Party/Comhaontas Glas | 2 | 7 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 5–9 | 5–10 |
| Labour Party | 7 | 4 | 1–6 | 1–7 | 1–8 | 0–10 |
| Solidarity–People Before Profit | 6 | 2 | 1–4 | 1–4 | 1–4 | 1–5 |
| Social Democrats | 3 | 3 | 3–4 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 |
| Independents 4 Change | 4 | 3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 1–4 |
Fine Gael
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fine Gael page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 41 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 42 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 43 | 1.1% | 99.1% | |
| 44 | 2% | 98% | |
| 45 | 0.8% | 96% | |
| 46 | 1.1% | 95% | |
| 47 | 6% | 94% | |
| 48 | 2% | 88% | |
| 49 | 10% | 85% | Last Result |
| 50 | 8% | 76% | |
| 51 | 3% | 68% | |
| 52 | 5% | 65% | |
| 53 | 11% | 60% | Median |
| 54 | 15% | 49% | |
| 55 | 9% | 33% | |
| 56 | 2% | 25% | |
| 57 | 8% | 22% | |
| 58 | 7% | 14% | |
| 59 | 2% | 8% | |
| 60 | 4% | 6% | |
| 61 | 0.9% | 1.4% | |
| 62 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 63 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% |
Fianna Fáil
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fianna Fáil page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 34 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 35 | 0.9% | 99.3% | |
| 36 | 1.3% | 98% | |
| 37 | 3% | 97% | |
| 38 | 2% | 94% | |
| 39 | 5% | 93% | |
| 40 | 6% | 87% | |
| 41 | 5% | 81% | |
| 42 | 12% | 76% | |
| 43 | 6% | 64% | |
| 44 | 9% | 58% | Last Result, Median |
| 45 | 14% | 49% | |
| 46 | 9% | 35% | |
| 47 | 10% | 26% | |
| 48 | 6% | 16% | |
| 49 | 2% | 10% | |
| 50 | 1.3% | 8% | |
| 51 | 3% | 7% | |
| 52 | 2% | 4% | |
| 53 | 2% | 3% | |
| 54 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 55 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% |
Sinn Féin
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinn Féin page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 23 | 4% | 99.3% | Last Result |
| 24 | 2% | 95% | |
| 25 | 1.4% | 93% | |
| 26 | 2% | 91% | |
| 27 | 3% | 89% | |
| 28 | 6% | 86% | |
| 29 | 9% | 80% | |
| 30 | 6% | 71% | |
| 31 | 14% | 65% | |
| 32 | 36% | 51% | Median |
| 33 | 11% | 14% | |
| 34 | 2% | 3% | |
| 35 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% |
Independent
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independent page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 6 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 7 | 0.6% | 99.4% | |
| 8 | 0.9% | 98.8% | |
| 9 | 2% | 98% | |
| 10 | 3% | 96% | |
| 11 | 4% | 93% | |
| 12 | 16% | 90% | |
| 13 | 19% | 74% | |
| 14 | 8% | 55% | Median |
| 15 | 7% | 46% | |
| 16 | 7% | 39% | |
| 17 | 32% | 32% | |
| 18 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party/Comhaontas Glas page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 3 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 5 | 33% | 99.5% | |
| 6 | 3% | 67% | |
| 7 | 49% | 64% | Median |
| 8 | 11% | 15% | |
| 9 | 3% | 4% | |
| 10 | 0.7% | 1.0% | |
| 11 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Labour Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 1 | 16% | 99.4% | |
| 2 | 8% | 83% | |
| 3 | 18% | 75% | |
| 4 | 38% | 56% | Median |
| 5 | 8% | 18% | |
| 6 | 4% | 10% | |
| 7 | 3% | 6% | Last Result |
| 8 | 1.3% | 4% | |
| 9 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 10 | 1.1% | 1.2% | |
| 11 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 12 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Solidarity–People Before Profit
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Solidarity–People Before Profit page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 27% | 100% | |
| 2 | 34% | 73% | Median |
| 3 | 25% | 39% | |
| 4 | 11% | 14% | |
| 5 | 2% | 2% | |
| 6 | 0.3% | 0.3% | Last Result |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Social Democrats
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Social Democrats page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 88% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 4 | 5% | 12% | |
| 5 | 7% | 8% | |
| 6 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 7 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Independents 4 Change
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents 4 Change page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 2 | 10% | 99.5% | |
| 3 | 87% | 90% | Median |
| 4 | 2% | 2% | Last Result |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fine Gael – Fianna Fáil | 93 | 97 | 100% | 93–102 | 91–105 | 90–106 | 88–109 |
| Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin | 67 | 74 | 5% | 69–80 | 68–81 | 67–82 | 64–84 |
| Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party – Social Democrats | 61 | 67 | 0% | 61–71 | 60–73 | 58–74 | 55–76 |
| Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party | 58 | 64 | 0% | 58–68 | 57–70 | 54–70 | 52–73 |
| Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas | 51 | 60 | 0% | 54–64 | 52–65 | 51–66 | 49–67 |
| Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party – Social Democrats | 56 | 58 | 0% | 51–63 | 50–64 | 48–66 | 46–69 |
| Fine Gael – Labour Party | 56 | 57 | 0% | 51–62 | 50–64 | 47–65 | 45–67 |
| Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party | 53 | 55 | 0% | 47–60 | 46–61 | 44–63 | 43–65 |
| Fine Gael | 49 | 53 | 0% | 47–58 | 46–60 | 44–60 | 42–61 |
| Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas | 46 | 51 | 0% | 45–55 | 44–58 | 42–59 | 40–61 |
| Fianna Fáil – Labour Party | 51 | 48 | 0% | 42–53 | 40–55 | 39–56 | 36–58 |
| Sinn Féin – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party – Social Democrats – Solidarity–People Before Profit | 41 | 47 | 0% | 41–49 | 38–51 | 38–52 | 37–54 |
| Sinn Féin – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party – Social Democrats | 35 | 44 | 0% | 39–47 | 36–48 | 36–49 | 35–51 |
| Sinn Féin – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party – Solidarity–People Before Profit | 38 | 43 | 0% | 38–46 | 35–47 | 35–49 | 34–51 |
| Sinn Féin – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party | 32 | 41 | 0% | 36–44 | 33–45 | 33–46 | 32–48 |
Fine Gael – Fianna Fáil
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 86 | 0% | 100% | |
| 87 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 88 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 89 | 1.2% | 99.3% | |
| 90 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 91 | 2% | 97% | |
| 92 | 4% | 95% | |
| 93 | 10% | 91% | Last Result |
| 94 | 10% | 81% | |
| 95 | 13% | 71% | |
| 96 | 6% | 58% | |
| 97 | 12% | 52% | Median |
| 98 | 8% | 40% | |
| 99 | 13% | 33% | |
| 100 | 3% | 20% | |
| 101 | 6% | 16% | |
| 102 | 3% | 11% | |
| 103 | 1.3% | 8% | |
| 104 | 1.1% | 7% | |
| 105 | 0.9% | 5% | |
| 106 | 3% | 5% | |
| 107 | 0.4% | 1.4% | |
| 108 | 0.1% | 1.0% | |
| 109 | 0.8% | 1.0% | |
| 110 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 111 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 112 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 113 | 0% | 0% |
Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 62 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 63 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 64 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 65 | 0.5% | 99.2% | |
| 66 | 1.1% | 98.7% | |
| 67 | 1.2% | 98% | Last Result |
| 68 | 2% | 96% | |
| 69 | 9% | 94% | |
| 70 | 3% | 85% | |
| 71 | 8% | 82% | |
| 72 | 7% | 74% | |
| 73 | 4% | 67% | |
| 74 | 14% | 63% | |
| 75 | 11% | 49% | |
| 76 | 4% | 38% | Median |
| 77 | 13% | 34% | |
| 78 | 2% | 21% | |
| 79 | 4% | 19% | |
| 80 | 10% | 15% | |
| 81 | 2% | 5% | Majority |
| 82 | 1.5% | 3% | |
| 83 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 84 | 0.7% | 1.1% | |
| 85 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 86 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% |
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party – Social Democrats
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 55 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 56 | 1.0% | 99.3% | |
| 57 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 58 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 59 | 1.4% | 97% | |
| 60 | 3% | 95% | |
| 61 | 10% | 92% | Last Result |
| 62 | 2% | 82% | |
| 63 | 6% | 80% | |
| 64 | 9% | 74% | |
| 65 | 2% | 64% | |
| 66 | 4% | 62% | |
| 67 | 22% | 58% | Median |
| 68 | 8% | 36% | |
| 69 | 13% | 28% | |
| 70 | 4% | 15% | |
| 71 | 3% | 11% | |
| 72 | 2% | 9% | |
| 73 | 4% | 7% | |
| 74 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 75 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 76 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 77 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% |
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 51 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 52 | 0.8% | 99.9% | |
| 53 | 1.1% | 99.1% | |
| 54 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 55 | 0.9% | 97% | |
| 56 | 1.2% | 96% | |
| 57 | 3% | 95% | |
| 58 | 10% | 92% | Last Result |
| 59 | 2% | 81% | |
| 60 | 6% | 79% | |
| 61 | 10% | 73% | |
| 62 | 2% | 63% | |
| 63 | 4% | 61% | |
| 64 | 24% | 57% | Median |
| 65 | 7% | 33% | |
| 66 | 11% | 25% | |
| 67 | 4% | 14% | |
| 68 | 3% | 10% | |
| 69 | 2% | 8% | |
| 70 | 4% | 6% | |
| 71 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 72 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 73 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 74 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% |
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 47 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 48 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 49 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 50 | 0.9% | 99.2% | |
| 51 | 2% | 98% | Last Result |
| 52 | 0.9% | 96% | |
| 53 | 1.2% | 95% | |
| 54 | 6% | 94% | |
| 55 | 3% | 88% | |
| 56 | 6% | 84% | |
| 57 | 12% | 78% | |
| 58 | 2% | 66% | |
| 59 | 6% | 64% | |
| 60 | 18% | 58% | Median |
| 61 | 14% | 41% | |
| 62 | 7% | 27% | |
| 63 | 7% | 20% | |
| 64 | 4% | 13% | |
| 65 | 6% | 10% | |
| 66 | 2% | 3% | |
| 67 | 0.7% | 1.0% | |
| 68 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 69 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% |
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party – Social Democrats
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 44 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 45 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 46 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 47 | 2% | 99.3% | |
| 48 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 49 | 2% | 97% | |
| 50 | 5% | 95% | |
| 51 | 1.2% | 90% | |
| 52 | 5% | 89% | |
| 53 | 2% | 84% | |
| 54 | 4% | 82% | |
| 55 | 3% | 77% | |
| 56 | 16% | 74% | Last Result |
| 57 | 5% | 58% | |
| 58 | 11% | 52% | Median |
| 59 | 14% | 41% | |
| 60 | 4% | 28% | |
| 61 | 10% | 24% | |
| 62 | 1.5% | 13% | |
| 63 | 4% | 12% | |
| 64 | 3% | 8% | |
| 65 | 1.2% | 5% | |
| 66 | 2% | 4% | |
| 67 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 68 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 69 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 70 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 71 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% |
Fine Gael – Labour Party
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 44 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 45 | 1.0% | 99.9% | |
| 46 | 0.8% | 98.8% | |
| 47 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 48 | 0.8% | 97% | |
| 49 | 1.0% | 96% | |
| 50 | 3% | 95% | |
| 51 | 10% | 93% | |
| 52 | 4% | 83% | |
| 53 | 10% | 79% | |
| 54 | 2% | 69% | |
| 55 | 4% | 67% | |
| 56 | 5% | 63% | Last Result |
| 57 | 20% | 58% | Median |
| 58 | 8% | 38% | |
| 59 | 6% | 30% | |
| 60 | 4% | 24% | |
| 61 | 9% | 20% | |
| 62 | 3% | 11% | |
| 63 | 3% | 8% | |
| 64 | 1.1% | 5% | |
| 65 | 3% | 4% | |
| 66 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 67 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 68 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 69 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% |
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40 | 0% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 42 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 43 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 44 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 45 | 0.4% | 97% | |
| 46 | 2% | 97% | |
| 47 | 5% | 95% | |
| 48 | 1.5% | 90% | |
| 49 | 6% | 88% | |
| 50 | 3% | 82% | |
| 51 | 5% | 80% | |
| 52 | 4% | 74% | |
| 53 | 14% | 71% | Last Result |
| 54 | 5% | 56% | |
| 55 | 11% | 51% | Median |
| 56 | 14% | 40% | |
| 57 | 4% | 27% | |
| 58 | 9% | 22% | |
| 59 | 2% | 13% | |
| 60 | 3% | 11% | |
| 61 | 3% | 8% | |
| 62 | 0.9% | 4% | |
| 63 | 2% | 4% | |
| 64 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 65 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 66 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 67 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 68 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% |
Fine Gael
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 41 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 42 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 43 | 1.1% | 99.1% | |
| 44 | 2% | 98% | |
| 45 | 0.8% | 96% | |
| 46 | 1.1% | 95% | |
| 47 | 6% | 94% | |
| 48 | 2% | 88% | |
| 49 | 10% | 85% | Last Result |
| 50 | 8% | 76% | |
| 51 | 3% | 68% | |
| 52 | 5% | 65% | |
| 53 | 11% | 60% | Median |
| 54 | 15% | 49% | |
| 55 | 9% | 33% | |
| 56 | 2% | 25% | |
| 57 | 8% | 22% | |
| 58 | 7% | 14% | |
| 59 | 2% | 8% | |
| 60 | 4% | 6% | |
| 61 | 0.9% | 1.4% | |
| 62 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 63 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% |
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 38 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 39 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 40 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 41 | 0.8% | 99.2% | |
| 42 | 2% | 98% | |
| 43 | 1.3% | 97% | |
| 44 | 4% | 95% | |
| 45 | 6% | 91% | |
| 46 | 4% | 85% | Last Result |
| 47 | 5% | 81% | |
| 48 | 3% | 77% | |
| 49 | 13% | 74% | |
| 50 | 8% | 61% | |
| 51 | 7% | 53% | Median |
| 52 | 17% | 46% | |
| 53 | 3% | 29% | |
| 54 | 10% | 26% | |
| 55 | 6% | 16% | |
| 56 | 3% | 10% | |
| 57 | 2% | 7% | |
| 58 | 2% | 5% | |
| 59 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 60 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 61 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 62 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 63 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% |
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 36 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 37 | 0.4% | 99.5% | |
| 38 | 1.2% | 99.1% | |
| 39 | 2% | 98% | |
| 40 | 1.2% | 95% | |
| 41 | 1.3% | 94% | |
| 42 | 6% | 93% | |
| 43 | 3% | 87% | |
| 44 | 8% | 85% | |
| 45 | 3% | 77% | |
| 46 | 13% | 74% | |
| 47 | 5% | 61% | |
| 48 | 18% | 55% | Median |
| 49 | 7% | 37% | |
| 50 | 4% | 31% | |
| 51 | 12% | 27% | Last Result |
| 52 | 3% | 15% | |
| 53 | 2% | 12% | |
| 54 | 4% | 10% | |
| 55 | 3% | 6% | |
| 56 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 57 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 58 | 0.9% | 1.3% | |
| 59 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 60 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 61 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% |
Sinn Féin – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party – Social Democrats – Solidarity–People Before Profit
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0.9% | 99.7% | |
| 38 | 4% | 98.8% | |
| 39 | 1.0% | 95% | |
| 40 | 2% | 94% | |
| 41 | 4% | 92% | Last Result |
| 42 | 2% | 88% | |
| 43 | 8% | 86% | |
| 44 | 5% | 78% | |
| 45 | 7% | 74% | |
| 46 | 16% | 67% | |
| 47 | 17% | 51% | |
| 48 | 15% | 34% | Median |
| 49 | 12% | 19% | |
| 50 | 2% | 7% | |
| 51 | 2% | 5% | |
| 52 | 2% | 3% | |
| 53 | 0.5% | 1.3% | |
| 54 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 55 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% |
Sinn Féin – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party – Social Democrats
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 33 | 0% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 35 | 1.1% | 99.6% | Last Result |
| 36 | 4% | 98.6% | |
| 37 | 2% | 95% | |
| 38 | 2% | 93% | |
| 39 | 3% | 91% | |
| 40 | 4% | 88% | |
| 41 | 6% | 84% | |
| 42 | 6% | 78% | |
| 43 | 16% | 71% | |
| 44 | 5% | 55% | |
| 45 | 14% | 50% | |
| 46 | 21% | 35% | Median |
| 47 | 7% | 14% | |
| 48 | 3% | 7% | |
| 49 | 2% | 4% | |
| 50 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 51 | 0.7% | 1.1% | |
| 52 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 53 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% |
Sinn Féin – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party – Solidarity–People Before Profit
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 34 | 0.9% | 99.6% | |
| 35 | 4% | 98.6% | |
| 36 | 1.0% | 95% | |
| 37 | 2% | 94% | |
| 38 | 4% | 91% | Last Result |
| 39 | 2% | 87% | |
| 40 | 8% | 86% | |
| 41 | 5% | 78% | |
| 42 | 11% | 73% | |
| 43 | 16% | 62% | |
| 44 | 15% | 47% | |
| 45 | 15% | 32% | Median |
| 46 | 12% | 17% | |
| 47 | 2% | 6% | |
| 48 | 1.2% | 4% | |
| 49 | 2% | 3% | |
| 50 | 0.3% | 1.0% | |
| 51 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 52 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% |
Sinn Féin – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 31 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 32 | 1.0% | 99.5% | Last Result |
| 33 | 4% | 98% | |
| 34 | 2% | 95% | |
| 35 | 2% | 92% | |
| 36 | 3% | 91% | |
| 37 | 4% | 88% | |
| 38 | 7% | 83% | |
| 39 | 6% | 76% | |
| 40 | 20% | 70% | |
| 41 | 4% | 50% | |
| 42 | 12% | 46% | |
| 43 | 22% | 34% | Median |
| 44 | 6% | 12% | |
| 45 | 2% | 5% | |
| 46 | 2% | 3% | |
| 47 | 0.5% | 1.5% | |
| 48 | 0.7% | 1.0% | |
| 49 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 50 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ireland Thinks
- Commissioner(s): The Irish Daily Mail
- Fieldwork period: 24 December 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 1585
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.74%