Opinion Poll by Behaviour and Attitudes for The Sunday Times, 4–14 January 2020
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fianna Fáil | 24.3% | 32.3% | 30.3–34.3% | 29.8–34.8% | 29.3–35.3% | 28.4–36.3% |
| Fine Gael | 25.5% | 20.1% | 18.5–21.9% | 18.1–22.4% | 17.7–22.8% | 16.9–23.7% |
| Sinn Féin | 13.8% | 19.2% | 17.6–20.9% | 17.1–21.4% | 16.7–21.8% | 16.0–22.7% |
| Independent | 15.9% | 9.3% | 8.2–10.7% | 7.9–11.0% | 7.6–11.4% | 7.1–12.0% |
| Green Party/Comhaontas Glas | 2.7% | 7.0% | 6.1–8.2% | 5.8–8.6% | 5.5–8.9% | 5.1–9.5% |
| Labour Party | 6.6% | 4.0% | 3.3–5.0% | 3.1–5.2% | 2.9–5.5% | 2.6–6.0% |
| Solidarity–People Before Profit | 3.9% | 2.1% | 1.6–2.8% | 1.4–3.0% | 1.3–3.2% | 1.1–3.6% |
| Independents 4 Change | 1.5% | 1.2% | 0.8–1.8% | 0.7–2.0% | 0.7–2.1% | 0.5–2.5% |
| Social Democrats | 3.0% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.7% | 0.5–1.8% | 0.4–2.1% |
| Renua Ireland | 2.2% | 0.3% | 0.2–0.7% | 0.1–0.8% | 0.1–0.9% | 0.1–1.2% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fianna Fáil | 44 | 60 | 59–63 | 58–63 | 57–65 | 56–66 |
| Fine Gael | 49 | 38 | 35–42 | 34–44 | 33–44 | 29–46 |
| Sinn Féin | 23 | 37 | 36–37 | 35–38 | 34–38 | 33–38 |
| Independent | 19 | 10 | 7–11 | 5–13 | 4–13 | 3–15 |
| Green Party/Comhaontas Glas | 2 | 11 | 7–11 | 5–12 | 4–14 | 4–15 |
| Labour Party | 7 | 1 | 0–4 | 0–5 | 0–6 | 0–6 |
| Solidarity–People Before Profit | 6 | 1 | 1–3 | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–4 |
| Independents 4 Change | 4 | 3 | 2–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 0–3 |
| Social Democrats | 3 | 0 | 0–2 | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–3 |
| Renua Ireland | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Fianna Fáil
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fianna Fáil page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 44 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 45 | 0% | 100% | |
| 46 | 0% | 100% | |
| 47 | 0% | 100% | |
| 48 | 0% | 100% | |
| 49 | 0% | 100% | |
| 50 | 0% | 100% | |
| 51 | 0% | 100% | |
| 52 | 0% | 100% | |
| 53 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 55 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 56 | 0.7% | 99.8% | |
| 57 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 58 | 5% | 97% | |
| 59 | 16% | 93% | |
| 60 | 35% | 77% | Median |
| 61 | 21% | 43% | |
| 62 | 11% | 22% | |
| 63 | 7% | 11% | |
| 64 | 2% | 4% | |
| 65 | 2% | 3% | |
| 66 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 67 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 68 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% |
Fine Gael
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fine Gael page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 27 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 28 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 29 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 30 | 0.3% | 99.2% | |
| 31 | 0.3% | 98.9% | |
| 32 | 0.6% | 98.6% | |
| 33 | 2% | 98% | |
| 34 | 3% | 96% | |
| 35 | 13% | 93% | |
| 36 | 4% | 80% | |
| 37 | 15% | 76% | |
| 38 | 34% | 60% | Median |
| 39 | 10% | 27% | |
| 40 | 3% | 17% | |
| 41 | 2% | 14% | |
| 42 | 2% | 11% | |
| 43 | 3% | 10% | |
| 44 | 5% | 6% | |
| 45 | 0.9% | 1.5% | |
| 46 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 47 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 48 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Sinn Féin
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinn Féin page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0% | 100% | |
| 31 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 33 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 34 | 4% | 99.4% | |
| 35 | 5% | 95% | |
| 36 | 25% | 90% | |
| 37 | 60% | 65% | Median |
| 38 | 5% | 5% | |
| 39 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% |
Independent
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independent page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2% | 100% | |
| 4 | 1.5% | 98% | |
| 5 | 2% | 97% | |
| 6 | 3% | 94% | |
| 7 | 2% | 91% | |
| 8 | 9% | 90% | |
| 9 | 7% | 80% | |
| 10 | 51% | 74% | Median |
| 11 | 15% | 23% | |
| 12 | 1.5% | 8% | |
| 13 | 6% | 7% | |
| 14 | 0.2% | 0.9% | |
| 15 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 16 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party/Comhaontas Glas page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 3 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 4 | 4% | 99.7% | |
| 5 | 3% | 96% | |
| 6 | 1.3% | 92% | |
| 7 | 12% | 91% | |
| 8 | 7% | 79% | |
| 9 | 6% | 71% | |
| 10 | 2% | 65% | |
| 11 | 55% | 63% | Median |
| 12 | 4% | 9% | |
| 13 | 2% | 4% | |
| 14 | 2% | 3% | |
| 15 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 16 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 17 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 18 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 19 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% |
Labour Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 45% | 100% | |
| 1 | 17% | 55% | Median |
| 2 | 21% | 38% | |
| 3 | 7% | 18% | |
| 4 | 4% | 11% | |
| 5 | 4% | 6% | |
| 6 | 2% | 3% | |
| 7 | 0.2% | 0.5% | Last Result |
| 8 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 9 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Solidarity–People Before Profit
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Solidarity–People Before Profit page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6% | 100% | |
| 1 | 80% | 94% | Median |
| 2 | 2% | 14% | |
| 3 | 10% | 12% | |
| 4 | 2% | 2% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Independents 4 Change
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents 4 Change page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2% | 100% | |
| 1 | 5% | 98% | |
| 2 | 40% | 92% | |
| 3 | 52% | 52% | Median |
| 4 | 0.2% | 0.2% | Last Result |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Social Democrats
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Social Democrats page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 60% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 15% | 40% | |
| 2 | 19% | 25% | |
| 3 | 6% | 6% | Last Result |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Renua Ireland
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Renua Ireland page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.7% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 2 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fianna Fáil – Fine Gael | 93 | 98 | 100% | 96–103 | 95–104 | 94–106 | 91–107 |
| Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin | 67 | 97 | 100% | 95–100 | 94–100 | 94–101 | 91–103 |
| Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party – Social Democrats | 56 | 72 | 0.9% | 69–75 | 68–77 | 68–78 | 66–81 |
| Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party | 53 | 71 | 0.3% | 68–75 | 67–76 | 66–77 | 66–79 |
| Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas | 46 | 71 | 0.1% | 67–73 | 65–74 | 65–76 | 63–77 |
| Fianna Fáil – Labour Party | 51 | 61 | 0% | 59–65 | 59–67 | 59–68 | 58–69 |
| Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party – Social Democrats | 61 | 49 | 0% | 47–53 | 46–54 | 45–55 | 44–58 |
| Sinn Féin – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party – Solidarity–People Before Profit – Social Democrats | 41 | 49 | 0% | 46–52 | 45–53 | 44–55 | 43–57 |
| Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party | 58 | 49 | 0% | 46–52 | 46–53 | 44–54 | 42–57 |
| Sinn Féin – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party – Solidarity–People Before Profit | 38 | 49 | 0% | 45–51 | 44–52 | 43–54 | 41–56 |
| Sinn Féin – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party – Social Democrats | 35 | 48 | 0% | 45–51 | 44–52 | 43–53 | 41–56 |
| Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas | 51 | 48 | 0% | 44–51 | 42–52 | 41–53 | 40–55 |
| Sinn Féin – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party | 32 | 48 | 0% | 44–50 | 43–51 | 42–52 | 40–54 |
| Fine Gael – Labour Party | 56 | 38 | 0% | 37–44 | 36–45 | 34–46 | 32–49 |
| Fine Gael | 49 | 38 | 0% | 35–42 | 34–44 | 33–44 | 29–46 |
Fianna Fáil – Fine Gael
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 87 | 0% | 100% | |
| 88 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 89 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 90 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 91 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 92 | 1.0% | 99.2% | |
| 93 | 0.5% | 98% | Last Result |
| 94 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 95 | 3% | 97% | |
| 96 | 23% | 94% | |
| 97 | 4% | 71% | |
| 98 | 35% | 67% | Median |
| 99 | 8% | 33% | |
| 100 | 9% | 25% | |
| 101 | 2% | 16% | |
| 102 | 4% | 14% | |
| 103 | 4% | 10% | |
| 104 | 3% | 7% | |
| 105 | 0.6% | 4% | |
| 106 | 2% | 3% | |
| 107 | 0.9% | 1.2% | |
| 108 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 109 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 110 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 111 | 0% | 0% |
Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 67 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 68 | 0% | 100% | |
| 69 | 0% | 100% | |
| 70 | 0% | 100% | |
| 71 | 0% | 100% | |
| 72 | 0% | 100% | |
| 73 | 0% | 100% | |
| 74 | 0% | 100% | |
| 75 | 0% | 100% | |
| 76 | 0% | 100% | |
| 77 | 0% | 100% | |
| 78 | 0% | 100% | |
| 79 | 0% | 100% | |
| 80 | 0% | 100% | |
| 81 | 0% | 100% | Majority |
| 82 | 0% | 100% | |
| 83 | 0% | 100% | |
| 84 | 0% | 100% | |
| 85 | 0% | 100% | |
| 86 | 0% | 100% | |
| 87 | 0% | 100% | |
| 88 | 0% | 100% | |
| 89 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 90 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 91 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 92 | 0.7% | 99.3% | |
| 93 | 0.9% | 98.6% | |
| 94 | 5% | 98% | |
| 95 | 8% | 93% | |
| 96 | 23% | 85% | |
| 97 | 26% | 63% | Median |
| 98 | 21% | 37% | |
| 99 | 6% | 16% | |
| 100 | 6% | 10% | |
| 101 | 2% | 4% | |
| 102 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 103 | 0.7% | 0.9% | |
| 104 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 105 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 106 | 0% | 0% |
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party – Social Democrats
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 56 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 57 | 0% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0% | 100% | |
| 63 | 0% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0% | 100% | |
| 65 | 0% | 100% | |
| 66 | 0.8% | 99.9% | |
| 67 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 68 | 5% | 98% | |
| 69 | 3% | 93% | |
| 70 | 3% | 90% | |
| 71 | 31% | 86% | |
| 72 | 21% | 55% | Median |
| 73 | 6% | 34% | |
| 74 | 5% | 29% | |
| 75 | 14% | 23% | |
| 76 | 3% | 9% | |
| 77 | 3% | 6% | |
| 78 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 79 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 80 | 0.3% | 1.2% | |
| 81 | 0.6% | 0.9% | Majority |
| 82 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 83 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 84 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% |
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 53 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 54 | 0% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0% | 100% | |
| 56 | 0% | 100% | |
| 57 | 0% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0% | 100% | |
| 63 | 0% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0% | 100% | |
| 65 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 66 | 3% | 99.7% | |
| 67 | 4% | 97% | |
| 68 | 4% | 93% | |
| 69 | 4% | 89% | |
| 70 | 12% | 85% | |
| 71 | 30% | 73% | |
| 72 | 12% | 42% | Median |
| 73 | 7% | 31% | |
| 74 | 13% | 23% | |
| 75 | 4% | 10% | |
| 76 | 2% | 6% | |
| 77 | 2% | 4% | |
| 78 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 79 | 0.7% | 1.1% | |
| 80 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 81 | 0.1% | 0.3% | Majority |
| 82 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 83 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% |
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 46 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 47 | 0% | 100% | |
| 48 | 0% | 100% | |
| 49 | 0% | 100% | |
| 50 | 0% | 100% | |
| 51 | 0% | 100% | |
| 52 | 0% | 100% | |
| 53 | 0% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0% | 100% | |
| 56 | 0% | 100% | |
| 57 | 0% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 63 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 64 | 1.4% | 99.4% | |
| 65 | 3% | 98% | |
| 66 | 5% | 95% | |
| 67 | 4% | 90% | |
| 68 | 9% | 86% | |
| 69 | 3% | 77% | |
| 70 | 15% | 74% | |
| 71 | 36% | 59% | Median |
| 72 | 12% | 22% | |
| 73 | 3% | 10% | |
| 74 | 2% | 7% | |
| 75 | 2% | 5% | |
| 76 | 2% | 3% | |
| 77 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 78 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 79 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0.1% | Majority |
| 82 | 0% | 0% |
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 51 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 52 | 0% | 100% | |
| 53 | 0% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0% | 100% | |
| 56 | 0% | 100% | |
| 57 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 58 | 2% | 99.6% | |
| 59 | 12% | 98% | |
| 60 | 27% | 85% | |
| 61 | 12% | 58% | Median |
| 62 | 6% | 46% | |
| 63 | 15% | 39% | |
| 64 | 10% | 24% | |
| 65 | 5% | 14% | |
| 66 | 3% | 9% | |
| 67 | 2% | 6% | |
| 68 | 3% | 4% | |
| 69 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 70 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 71 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 72 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% |
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party – Social Democrats
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40 | 0% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 42 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 43 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 44 | 1.3% | 99.6% | |
| 45 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 46 | 5% | 97% | |
| 47 | 3% | 92% | |
| 48 | 9% | 90% | |
| 49 | 40% | 81% | |
| 50 | 19% | 40% | Median |
| 51 | 4% | 21% | |
| 52 | 6% | 17% | |
| 53 | 4% | 11% | |
| 54 | 3% | 8% | |
| 55 | 2% | 5% | |
| 56 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 57 | 0.6% | 1.3% | |
| 58 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 59 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 60 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Sinn Féin – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party – Solidarity–People Before Profit – Social Democrats
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 41 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 42 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 43 | 1.0% | 99.5% | |
| 44 | 2% | 98.5% | |
| 45 | 3% | 96% | |
| 46 | 4% | 93% | |
| 47 | 3% | 89% | |
| 48 | 3% | 86% | |
| 49 | 41% | 83% | |
| 50 | 10% | 42% | Median |
| 51 | 12% | 33% | |
| 52 | 14% | 20% | |
| 53 | 2% | 6% | |
| 54 | 1.4% | 4% | |
| 55 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 56 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 57 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 58 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 59 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 61 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% |
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 39 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 41 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 42 | 0.8% | 99.8% | |
| 43 | 0.4% | 99.0% | |
| 44 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 45 | 2% | 97% | |
| 46 | 8% | 95% | |
| 47 | 2% | 88% | |
| 48 | 28% | 85% | |
| 49 | 33% | 58% | |
| 50 | 10% | 25% | Median |
| 51 | 2% | 16% | |
| 52 | 4% | 13% | |
| 53 | 5% | 9% | |
| 54 | 2% | 4% | |
| 55 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 56 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 57 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 58 | 0.2% | 0.4% | Last Result |
| 59 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 60 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% |
Sinn Féin – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party – Solidarity–People Before Profit
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 38 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 39 | 0% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0.8% | 100% | |
| 42 | 0.5% | 99.1% | |
| 43 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 44 | 3% | 97% | |
| 45 | 4% | 94% | |
| 46 | 5% | 90% | |
| 47 | 2% | 85% | |
| 48 | 5% | 83% | |
| 49 | 51% | 77% | |
| 50 | 8% | 26% | Median |
| 51 | 12% | 19% | |
| 52 | 2% | 7% | |
| 53 | 2% | 5% | |
| 54 | 2% | 3% | |
| 55 | 0.8% | 1.4% | |
| 56 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 57 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 58 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 59 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% |
Sinn Féin – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party – Social Democrats
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 36 | 0% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0% | 100% | |
| 39 | 0% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 42 | 2% | 99.3% | |
| 43 | 2% | 98% | |
| 44 | 3% | 96% | |
| 45 | 5% | 93% | |
| 46 | 4% | 88% | |
| 47 | 7% | 84% | |
| 48 | 40% | 77% | |
| 49 | 7% | 37% | Median |
| 50 | 11% | 30% | |
| 51 | 13% | 19% | |
| 52 | 2% | 6% | |
| 53 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 54 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 55 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 56 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 57 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 58 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 60 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% |
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36 | 0% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 38 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 39 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 40 | 0.7% | 99.6% | |
| 41 | 3% | 98.9% | |
| 42 | 3% | 96% | |
| 43 | 2% | 93% | |
| 44 | 2% | 91% | |
| 45 | 3% | 90% | |
| 46 | 23% | 87% | |
| 47 | 6% | 64% | |
| 48 | 12% | 58% | |
| 49 | 33% | 46% | Median |
| 50 | 1.5% | 13% | |
| 51 | 5% | 11% | Last Result |
| 52 | 2% | 6% | |
| 53 | 2% | 4% | |
| 54 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 55 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 56 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 57 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 58 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 59 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% |
Sinn Féin – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 33 | 0% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0% | 100% | |
| 39 | 0% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0.9% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0.8% | 99.1% | |
| 42 | 2% | 98% | |
| 43 | 3% | 96% | |
| 44 | 5% | 94% | |
| 45 | 4% | 88% | |
| 46 | 5% | 84% | |
| 47 | 9% | 79% | |
| 48 | 48% | 70% | |
| 49 | 4% | 22% | Median |
| 50 | 12% | 17% | |
| 51 | 1.4% | 6% | |
| 52 | 2% | 4% | |
| 53 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 54 | 0.7% | 1.1% | |
| 55 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 56 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 58 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% |
Fine Gael – Labour Party
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | 0% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 29 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 30 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 31 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 32 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 33 | 1.2% | 99.3% | |
| 34 | 1.3% | 98% | |
| 35 | 2% | 97% | |
| 36 | 2% | 95% | |
| 37 | 22% | 94% | |
| 38 | 28% | 71% | |
| 39 | 13% | 44% | Median |
| 40 | 2% | 30% | |
| 41 | 5% | 28% | |
| 42 | 9% | 23% | |
| 43 | 4% | 14% | |
| 44 | 4% | 10% | |
| 45 | 2% | 6% | |
| 46 | 3% | 4% | |
| 47 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 48 | 0.3% | 1.2% | |
| 49 | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
| 50 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Fine Gael
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 27 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 28 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 29 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 30 | 0.3% | 99.2% | |
| 31 | 0.3% | 98.9% | |
| 32 | 0.6% | 98.6% | |
| 33 | 2% | 98% | |
| 34 | 3% | 96% | |
| 35 | 13% | 93% | |
| 36 | 4% | 80% | |
| 37 | 15% | 76% | |
| 38 | 34% | 60% | Median |
| 39 | 10% | 27% | |
| 40 | 3% | 17% | |
| 41 | 2% | 14% | |
| 42 | 2% | 11% | |
| 43 | 3% | 10% | |
| 44 | 5% | 6% | |
| 45 | 0.9% | 1.5% | |
| 46 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 47 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 48 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Behaviour and Attitudes
- Commissioner(s): The Sunday Times
- Fieldwork period: 4–14 January 2020
Calculations
- Sample size: 924
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.91%