Opinion Poll by Ipsos MRBI for The Irish Times, 16–18 January 2020
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fianna Fáil | 24.3% | 25.0% | 23.4–26.7% | 23.0–27.1% | 22.6–27.5% | 21.9–28.3% |
| Fine Gael | 25.5% | 23.0% | 21.5–24.6% | 21.1–25.1% | 20.7–25.5% | 20.0–26.3% |
| Sinn Féin | 13.8% | 21.0% | 19.5–22.6% | 19.1–23.0% | 18.8–23.4% | 18.1–24.2% |
| Independent | 15.9% | 11.0% | 9.9–12.2% | 9.6–12.6% | 9.3–12.9% | 8.9–13.5% |
| Green Party/Comhaontas Glas | 2.7% | 8.0% | 7.1–9.1% | 6.8–9.4% | 6.6–9.7% | 6.2–10.2% |
| Labour Party | 6.6% | 5.0% | 4.3–5.9% | 4.1–6.2% | 3.9–6.4% | 3.6–6.8% |
| Solidarity–People Before Profit | 3.9% | 2.0% | 1.6–2.6% | 1.4–2.8% | 1.3–3.0% | 1.2–3.3% |
| Social Democrats | 3.0% | 2.0% | 1.6–2.6% | 1.4–2.8% | 1.3–3.0% | 1.2–3.3% |
| Independents 4 Change | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.1–2.0% | 1.0–2.1% | 0.9–2.3% | 0.7–2.6% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fianna Fáil | 44 | 49 | 44–52 | 43–54 | 41–54 | 37–55 |
| Fine Gael | 49 | 42 | 38–45 | 38–47 | 37–48 | 34–50 |
| Sinn Féin | 23 | 36 | 35–38 | 35–38 | 35–38 | 34–39 |
| Independent | 19 | 13 | 9–16 | 8–16 | 7–17 | 6–17 |
| Green Party/Comhaontas Glas | 2 | 9 | 7–13 | 7–14 | 7–14 | 7–17 |
| Labour Party | 7 | 5 | 2–7 | 1–8 | 1–8 | 1–10 |
| Solidarity–People Before Profit | 6 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–2 | 0–3 | 0–3 |
| Social Democrats | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 1–3 |
| Independents 4 Change | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2–3 | 1–4 | 1–4 |
Fianna Fáil
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fianna Fáil page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36 | 0% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 38 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 39 | 0.5% | 99.3% | |
| 40 | 0.7% | 98.8% | |
| 41 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 42 | 2% | 97% | |
| 43 | 3% | 95% | |
| 44 | 4% | 93% | Last Result |
| 45 | 6% | 89% | |
| 46 | 8% | 83% | |
| 47 | 11% | 74% | |
| 48 | 9% | 64% | |
| 49 | 15% | 55% | Median |
| 50 | 19% | 40% | |
| 51 | 9% | 21% | |
| 52 | 4% | 12% | |
| 53 | 2% | 8% | |
| 54 | 4% | 5% | |
| 55 | 1.2% | 1.5% | |
| 56 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 57 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% |
Fine Gael
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fine Gael page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 0% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 34 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 35 | 0.7% | 99.4% | |
| 36 | 0.9% | 98.7% | |
| 37 | 3% | 98% | |
| 38 | 9% | 95% | |
| 39 | 11% | 86% | |
| 40 | 12% | 75% | |
| 41 | 14% | 64% | |
| 42 | 17% | 50% | Median |
| 43 | 15% | 33% | |
| 44 | 6% | 19% | |
| 45 | 5% | 13% | |
| 46 | 2% | 8% | |
| 47 | 3% | 5% | |
| 48 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 49 | 0.4% | 2% | Last Result |
| 50 | 0.8% | 1.2% | |
| 51 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 52 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% |
Sinn Féin
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinn Féin page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0% | 100% | |
| 31 | 0% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0.9% | 100% | |
| 35 | 38% | 99.1% | |
| 36 | 20% | 61% | Median |
| 37 | 24% | 41% | |
| 38 | 16% | 17% | |
| 39 | 0.9% | 1.3% | |
| 40 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 41 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% |
Independent
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independent page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 6 | 1.2% | 99.5% | |
| 7 | 1.3% | 98% | |
| 8 | 6% | 97% | |
| 9 | 2% | 91% | |
| 10 | 2% | 89% | |
| 11 | 4% | 86% | |
| 12 | 11% | 83% | |
| 13 | 23% | 72% | Median |
| 14 | 22% | 49% | |
| 15 | 15% | 27% | |
| 16 | 8% | 11% | |
| 17 | 4% | 4% | |
| 18 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party/Comhaontas Glas page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 7 | 22% | 99.8% | |
| 8 | 18% | 78% | |
| 9 | 11% | 59% | Median |
| 10 | 12% | 49% | |
| 11 | 20% | 36% | |
| 12 | 6% | 16% | |
| 13 | 5% | 10% | |
| 14 | 3% | 5% | |
| 15 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 16 | 0.4% | 1.0% | |
| 17 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 18 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% |
Labour Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 1 | 5% | 99.9% | |
| 2 | 9% | 95% | |
| 3 | 21% | 86% | |
| 4 | 10% | 64% | |
| 5 | 18% | 55% | Median |
| 6 | 22% | 37% | |
| 7 | 9% | 15% | Last Result |
| 8 | 3% | 6% | |
| 9 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 10 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 11 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 12 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
Solidarity–People Before Profit
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Solidarity–People Before Profit page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 24% | 100% | |
| 1 | 68% | 76% | Median |
| 2 | 4% | 8% | |
| 3 | 4% | 4% | |
| 4 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Social Democrats
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Social Democrats page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 1 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 2 | 4% | 98% | |
| 3 | 93% | 93% | Last Result, Median |
| 4 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Independents 4 Change
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents 4 Change page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 1 | 5% | 99.9% | |
| 2 | 5% | 95% | |
| 3 | 85% | 90% | Median |
| 4 | 5% | 5% | Last Result |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fianna Fáil – Fine Gael | 93 | 90 | 98.6% | 85–95 | 83–97 | 82–98 | 79–100 |
| Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin | 67 | 85 | 92% | 81–88 | 80–89 | 78–90 | 74–92 |
| Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party – Social Democrats | 56 | 66 | 0% | 62–69 | 60–70 | 59–71 | 55–73 |
| Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party | 53 | 63 | 0% | 59–66 | 58–67 | 56–68 | 53–70 |
| Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party – Social Democrats | 61 | 58 | 0% | 56–63 | 55–64 | 54–65 | 52–68 |
| Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas | 46 | 58 | 0% | 55–62 | 52–63 | 51–64 | 47–66 |
| Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party | 58 | 55 | 0% | 53–60 | 52–61 | 51–63 | 49–65 |
| Sinn Féin – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party – Social Democrats – Solidarity–People Before Profit | 41 | 54 | 0% | 51–58 | 49–59 | 48–61 | 47–64 |
| Sinn Féin – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party – Social Democrats | 35 | 53 | 0% | 50–57 | 49–58 | 48–60 | 47–63 |
| Fianna Fáil – Labour Party | 51 | 53 | 0% | 48–56 | 47–58 | 47–58 | 43–59 |
| Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas | 51 | 51 | 0% | 48–55 | 47–56 | 47–58 | 45–61 |
| Sinn Féin – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party – Solidarity–People Before Profit | 38 | 51 | 0% | 48–55 | 47–57 | 45–58 | 44–61 |
| Sinn Féin – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party | 32 | 50 | 0% | 47–54 | 46–56 | 45–57 | 44–60 |
| Fine Gael – Labour Party | 56 | 46 | 0% | 43–50 | 42–53 | 40–53 | 38–56 |
| Fine Gael | 49 | 42 | 0% | 38–45 | 38–47 | 37–48 | 34–50 |
Fianna Fáil – Fine Gael
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 77 | 0% | 100% | |
| 78 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 79 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 80 | 0.8% | 99.4% | |
| 81 | 0.8% | 98.6% | Majority |
| 82 | 2% | 98% | |
| 83 | 1.3% | 96% | |
| 84 | 3% | 95% | |
| 85 | 7% | 92% | |
| 86 | 5% | 85% | |
| 87 | 11% | 80% | |
| 88 | 6% | 69% | |
| 89 | 11% | 63% | |
| 90 | 8% | 52% | |
| 91 | 8% | 44% | Median |
| 92 | 13% | 36% | |
| 93 | 5% | 23% | Last Result |
| 94 | 5% | 18% | |
| 95 | 4% | 13% | |
| 96 | 4% | 9% | |
| 97 | 0.9% | 5% | |
| 98 | 2% | 4% | |
| 99 | 2% | 2% | |
| 100 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 101 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 102 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 103 | 0% | 0% |
Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 67 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 68 | 0% | 100% | |
| 69 | 0% | 100% | |
| 70 | 0% | 100% | |
| 71 | 0% | 100% | |
| 72 | 0% | 100% | |
| 73 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 74 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 75 | 0.2% | 99.4% | |
| 76 | 0.4% | 99.3% | |
| 77 | 1.1% | 98.8% | |
| 78 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 79 | 2% | 97% | |
| 80 | 4% | 95% | |
| 81 | 6% | 92% | Majority |
| 82 | 8% | 85% | |
| 83 | 10% | 77% | |
| 84 | 17% | 67% | |
| 85 | 11% | 51% | Median |
| 86 | 18% | 40% | |
| 87 | 7% | 22% | |
| 88 | 5% | 14% | |
| 89 | 4% | 9% | |
| 90 | 3% | 5% | |
| 91 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 92 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 93 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0% |
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party – Social Democrats
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 51 | 0% | 100% | |
| 52 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 53 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 54 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 55 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 56 | 0.5% | 99.5% | Last Result |
| 57 | 0.4% | 99.0% | |
| 58 | 0.6% | 98.6% | |
| 59 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 60 | 3% | 97% | |
| 61 | 2% | 93% | |
| 62 | 4% | 91% | |
| 63 | 8% | 87% | |
| 64 | 16% | 79% | |
| 65 | 14% | 64% | |
| 66 | 14% | 50% | Median |
| 67 | 13% | 37% | |
| 68 | 8% | 23% | |
| 69 | 9% | 15% | |
| 70 | 4% | 6% | |
| 71 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 72 | 0.8% | 1.4% | |
| 73 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 74 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 76 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 77 | 0% | 0% |
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 49 | 0% | 100% | |
| 50 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 51 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 52 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 53 | 0.4% | 99.6% | Last Result |
| 54 | 0.3% | 99.2% | |
| 55 | 0.7% | 99.0% | |
| 56 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 57 | 2% | 97% | |
| 58 | 3% | 95% | |
| 59 | 3% | 92% | |
| 60 | 8% | 89% | |
| 61 | 16% | 80% | |
| 62 | 14% | 64% | |
| 63 | 14% | 51% | Median |
| 64 | 14% | 37% | |
| 65 | 8% | 23% | |
| 66 | 9% | 16% | |
| 67 | 4% | 6% | |
| 68 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 69 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 70 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 71 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% |
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party – Social Democrats
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 51 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 52 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 53 | 0.6% | 99.3% | |
| 54 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 55 | 4% | 96% | |
| 56 | 12% | 93% | |
| 57 | 14% | 81% | |
| 58 | 25% | 67% | |
| 59 | 11% | 42% | Median |
| 60 | 16% | 31% | |
| 61 | 3% | 14% | Last Result |
| 62 | 1.5% | 12% | |
| 63 | 2% | 10% | |
| 64 | 4% | 8% | |
| 65 | 2% | 5% | |
| 66 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 67 | 0.5% | 1.2% | |
| 68 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 69 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 70 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% |
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 45 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 46 | 0.1% | 99.6% | Last Result |
| 47 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 48 | 0.2% | 99.2% | |
| 49 | 0.4% | 99.0% | |
| 50 | 1.1% | 98.6% | |
| 51 | 2% | 98% | |
| 52 | 2% | 95% | |
| 53 | 2% | 93% | |
| 54 | 1.2% | 92% | |
| 55 | 9% | 90% | |
| 56 | 9% | 81% | |
| 57 | 15% | 72% | |
| 58 | 17% | 57% | Median |
| 59 | 8% | 39% | |
| 60 | 10% | 31% | |
| 61 | 8% | 21% | |
| 62 | 7% | 13% | |
| 63 | 3% | 6% | |
| 64 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 65 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 66 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 67 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 68 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% |
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 47 | 0% | 100% | |
| 48 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 49 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 50 | 0.5% | 99.3% | |
| 51 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 52 | 2% | 97% | |
| 53 | 13% | 94% | |
| 54 | 14% | 81% | |
| 55 | 25% | 67% | |
| 56 | 11% | 42% | Median |
| 57 | 17% | 32% | |
| 58 | 3% | 15% | Last Result |
| 59 | 1.3% | 12% | |
| 60 | 1.4% | 11% | |
| 61 | 5% | 9% | |
| 62 | 2% | 5% | |
| 63 | 2% | 3% | |
| 64 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 65 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 66 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% |
Sinn Féin – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party – Social Democrats – Solidarity–People Before Profit
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 41 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 42 | 0% | 100% | |
| 43 | 0% | 100% | |
| 44 | 0% | 100% | |
| 45 | 0% | 100% | |
| 46 | 0% | 100% | |
| 47 | 0.8% | 100% | |
| 48 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 49 | 2% | 97% | |
| 50 | 3% | 95% | |
| 51 | 13% | 91% | |
| 52 | 12% | 78% | |
| 53 | 11% | 67% | |
| 54 | 9% | 56% | Median |
| 55 | 16% | 47% | |
| 56 | 7% | 31% | |
| 57 | 11% | 24% | |
| 58 | 4% | 13% | |
| 59 | 4% | 9% | |
| 60 | 2% | 5% | |
| 61 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 62 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 63 | 0.3% | 1.0% | |
| 64 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 65 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 66 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% |
Sinn Féin – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party – Social Democrats
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 36 | 0% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0% | 100% | |
| 39 | 0% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0% | 100% | |
| 42 | 0% | 100% | |
| 43 | 0% | 100% | |
| 44 | 0% | 100% | |
| 45 | 0% | 100% | |
| 46 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 47 | 1.0% | 99.9% | |
| 48 | 3% | 98.8% | |
| 49 | 4% | 96% | |
| 50 | 13% | 92% | |
| 51 | 11% | 79% | |
| 52 | 12% | 68% | |
| 53 | 9% | 55% | Median |
| 54 | 10% | 46% | |
| 55 | 10% | 36% | |
| 56 | 13% | 26% | |
| 57 | 3% | 13% | |
| 58 | 4% | 9% | |
| 59 | 2% | 5% | |
| 60 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 61 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 62 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 63 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 64 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 65 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% |
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 39 | 0% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 41 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 42 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 43 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 44 | 0.3% | 99.4% | |
| 45 | 0.8% | 99.1% | |
| 46 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 47 | 3% | 98% | |
| 48 | 5% | 95% | |
| 49 | 4% | 90% | |
| 50 | 4% | 86% | |
| 51 | 8% | 82% | Last Result |
| 52 | 14% | 74% | |
| 53 | 13% | 60% | |
| 54 | 15% | 47% | Median |
| 55 | 13% | 32% | |
| 56 | 11% | 19% | |
| 57 | 3% | 9% | |
| 58 | 5% | 5% | |
| 59 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 60 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 61 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% |
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 43 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 44 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 45 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 46 | 1.0% | 99.4% | |
| 47 | 8% | 98% | |
| 48 | 7% | 90% | |
| 49 | 11% | 83% | |
| 50 | 17% | 72% | |
| 51 | 12% | 55% | Last Result, Median |
| 52 | 20% | 42% | |
| 53 | 6% | 23% | |
| 54 | 7% | 17% | |
| 55 | 4% | 10% | |
| 56 | 2% | 6% | |
| 57 | 1.0% | 4% | |
| 58 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 59 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 60 | 0.5% | 1.2% | |
| 61 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 62 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 63 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% |
Sinn Féin – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party – Solidarity–People Before Profit
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 38 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 39 | 0% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0% | 100% | |
| 42 | 0% | 100% | |
| 43 | 0% | 100% | |
| 44 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 45 | 2% | 99.3% | |
| 46 | 2% | 97% | |
| 47 | 3% | 96% | |
| 48 | 13% | 92% | |
| 49 | 11% | 79% | |
| 50 | 11% | 68% | |
| 51 | 10% | 57% | Median |
| 52 | 16% | 47% | |
| 53 | 5% | 31% | |
| 54 | 12% | 26% | |
| 55 | 4% | 14% | |
| 56 | 4% | 9% | |
| 57 | 2% | 5% | |
| 58 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 59 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 60 | 0.3% | 1.0% | |
| 61 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 62 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 63 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% |
Sinn Féin – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 33 | 0% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0% | 100% | |
| 39 | 0% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0% | 100% | |
| 42 | 0% | 100% | |
| 43 | 0% | 100% | |
| 44 | 0.9% | 100% | |
| 45 | 3% | 99.1% | |
| 46 | 4% | 97% | |
| 47 | 12% | 92% | |
| 48 | 11% | 80% | |
| 49 | 12% | 69% | |
| 50 | 10% | 57% | Median |
| 51 | 10% | 47% | |
| 52 | 9% | 37% | |
| 53 | 14% | 27% | |
| 54 | 4% | 13% | |
| 55 | 4% | 9% | |
| 56 | 2% | 5% | |
| 57 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 58 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 59 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 60 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 61 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 62 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% |
Fine Gael – Labour Party
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 38 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 39 | 0.4% | 99.4% | |
| 40 | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 41 | 1.2% | 97% | |
| 42 | 4% | 96% | |
| 43 | 10% | 92% | |
| 44 | 12% | 82% | |
| 45 | 13% | 70% | |
| 46 | 17% | 57% | |
| 47 | 11% | 40% | Median |
| 48 | 12% | 29% | |
| 49 | 6% | 16% | |
| 50 | 2% | 10% | |
| 51 | 0.7% | 8% | |
| 52 | 1.1% | 7% | |
| 53 | 3% | 6% | |
| 54 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 55 | 0.8% | 1.3% | |
| 56 | 0.4% | 0.5% | Last Result |
| 57 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% |
Fine Gael
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 0% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 34 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 35 | 0.7% | 99.4% | |
| 36 | 0.9% | 98.7% | |
| 37 | 3% | 98% | |
| 38 | 9% | 95% | |
| 39 | 11% | 86% | |
| 40 | 12% | 75% | |
| 41 | 14% | 64% | |
| 42 | 17% | 50% | Median |
| 43 | 15% | 33% | |
| 44 | 6% | 19% | |
| 45 | 5% | 13% | |
| 46 | 2% | 8% | |
| 47 | 3% | 5% | |
| 48 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 49 | 0.4% | 2% | Last Result |
| 50 | 0.8% | 1.2% | |
| 51 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 52 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ipsos MRBI
- Commissioner(s): The Irish Times
- Fieldwork period: 16–18 January 2020
Calculations
- Sample size: 1200
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.57%