Opinion Poll by Red C for The Sunday Business Post, 16–23 January 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fianna Fáil 24.3% 26.0% 24.3–27.8% 23.8–28.4% 23.4–28.8% 22.6–29.7%
Fine Gael 25.5% 23.0% 21.4–24.8% 20.9–25.3% 20.5–25.7% 19.7–26.6%
Sinn Féin 13.8% 19.0% 17.5–20.7% 17.1–21.1% 16.7–21.6% 16.0–22.4%
Independent 15.9% 12.7% 11.4–14.1% 11.1–14.6% 10.8–14.9% 10.2–15.6%
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2.7% 8.0% 7.0–9.2% 6.7–9.6% 6.5–9.9% 6.0–10.5%
Labour Party 6.6% 4.0% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–5.2% 2.9–5.4% 2.7–5.9%
Social Democrats 3.0% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.1% 2.1–4.3% 1.9–4.7%
Solidarity–People Before Profit 3.9% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.1% 1.1–3.4%
Independents 4 Change 1.5% 1.6% 1.2–2.2% 1.1–2.4% 1.0–2.6% 0.8–2.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fianna Fáil 44 50 45–54 44–55 42–55 39–57
Fine Gael 49 41 37–44 36–45 35–47 33–50
Sinn Féin 23 34 34–36 34–36 34–37 33–38
Independent 19 17 13–17 13–18 12–18 10–19
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2 9 7–12 7–13 7–14 6–17
Labour Party 7 1 0–3 0–4 0–5 0–7
Social Democrats 3 3 3–4 3–5 3–6 3–8
Solidarity–People Before Profit 6 1 0–1 0–2 0–3 0–4
Independents 4 Change 4 3 3–4 3–4 2–4 1–4

Fianna Fáil

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fianna Fáil page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 99.9%  
37 0.1% 99.9%  
38 0.2% 99.8%  
39 0.3% 99.6%  
40 0.2% 99.3%  
41 0.8% 99.1%  
42 0.9% 98%  
43 0.7% 97%  
44 4% 97% Last Result
45 3% 93%  
46 4% 90%  
47 15% 85%  
48 8% 71%  
49 10% 63%  
50 9% 53% Median
51 20% 44%  
52 7% 24%  
53 6% 17%  
54 4% 10%  
55 5% 7%  
56 1.4% 2%  
57 0.4% 0.7%  
58 0.2% 0.3%  
59 0% 0%  

Fine Gael

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fine Gael page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.1% 99.9%  
32 0.1% 99.8%  
33 0.3% 99.7%  
34 0.7% 99.4%  
35 3% 98.7%  
36 3% 95%  
37 3% 92%  
38 3% 89%  
39 7% 86%  
40 8% 79%  
41 22% 71% Median
42 17% 48%  
43 6% 31%  
44 18% 26%  
45 3% 8%  
46 2% 5%  
47 2% 3%  
48 0.7% 2%  
49 0.3% 0.9% Last Result
50 0.1% 0.6%  
51 0.3% 0.5%  
52 0% 0.2%  
53 0% 0.1%  
54 0% 0.1%  
55 0% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

Sinn Féin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinn Féin page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0.1% 99.9%  
32 0.1% 99.8%  
33 0.5% 99.7%  
34 54% 99.2% Median
35 34% 45%  
36 7% 12%  
37 3% 4%  
38 1.1% 1.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Independent

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independent page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.1% 100%  
9 0.2% 99.9%  
10 0.8% 99.6%  
11 1.3% 98.8%  
12 2% 98%  
13 13% 95%  
14 4% 83%  
15 6% 79%  
16 14% 73%  
17 50% 59% Median
18 6% 8%  
19 2% 2% Last Result
20 0.4% 0.4%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party/Comhaontas Glas page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.2% 100%  
6 1.4% 99.8%  
7 8% 98%  
8 31% 90%  
9 17% 59% Median
10 10% 41%  
11 17% 31%  
12 7% 14%  
13 4% 8%  
14 2% 4%  
15 0.4% 1.4%  
16 0.3% 1.0%  
17 0.2% 0.7%  
18 0.4% 0.4%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 18% 100%  
1 47% 82% Median
2 14% 35%  
3 12% 21%  
4 4% 9%  
5 3% 5%  
6 1.4% 2%  
7 0.3% 0.6% Last Result
8 0.2% 0.2%  
9 0% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Social Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Social Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100%  
3 57% 99.9% Last Result, Median
4 35% 43%  
5 4% 8%  
6 2% 4%  
7 1.0% 2%  
8 0.4% 0.7%  
9 0.3% 0.3%  
10 0% 0%  

Solidarity–People Before Profit

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Solidarity–People Before Profit page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 23% 100%  
1 68% 77% Median
2 4% 8%  
3 4% 5%  
4 0.7% 0.7%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0% Last Result

Independents 4 Change

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents 4 Change page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 2% 100%  
2 2% 98%  
3 84% 96% Median
4 12% 12% Last Result
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fianna Fáil – Fine Gael 93 91 99.7% 87–94 85–96 84–96 81–99
Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin 67 84 90% 80–89 79–89 78–90 74–92
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party – Social Democrats 56 64 0% 61–68 58–70 57–71 53–73
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party 53 60 0% 57–65 55–66 54–67 50–70
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 46 59 0% 55–63 53–66 53–66 49–68
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party – Social Democrats 61 56 0% 52–59 51–60 50–62 49–65
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party 58 53 0% 49–56 47–57 46–58 45–61
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party 51 51 0% 47–55 45–56 44–57 41–58
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 51 51 0% 48–54 46–56 44–57 43–60
Sinn Féin – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party – Social Democrats 35 49 0% 47–52 46–54 46–56 45–58
Sinn Féin – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party – Social Democrats – Solidarity–People Before Profit 41 50 0% 47–54 47–55 46–56 46–59
Sinn Féin – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party – Solidarity–People Before Profit 38 46 0% 44–50 44–51 43–53 42–55
Sinn Féin – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party 32 45 0% 43–49 43–50 42–52 41–54
Fine Gael – Labour Party 56 43 0% 39–47 37–47 36–48 34–52
Fine Gael 49 41 0% 37–44 36–45 35–47 33–50

Fianna Fáil – Fine Gael

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 0.1% 100%  
79 0.1% 99.9%  
80 0.1% 99.8%  
81 0.2% 99.7% Majority
82 0.4% 99.5%  
83 0.5% 99.1%  
84 2% 98.6%  
85 1.4% 96%  
86 4% 95%  
87 6% 91%  
88 6% 85%  
89 5% 79%  
90 8% 74%  
91 18% 66% Median
92 26% 48%  
93 8% 22% Last Result
94 5% 14%  
95 4% 9%  
96 3% 5%  
97 1.0% 2%  
98 0.6% 1.2%  
99 0.4% 0.7%  
100 0.1% 0.2%  
101 0.1% 0.1%  
102 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 99.9%  
72 0% 99.9%  
73 0.1% 99.9%  
74 0.3% 99.8%  
75 0.4% 99.5%  
76 0.7% 99.1%  
77 0.5% 98%  
78 1.2% 98%  
79 3% 97%  
80 4% 94%  
81 7% 90% Majority
82 14% 82%  
83 11% 68%  
84 9% 56% Median
85 20% 47%  
86 4% 27%  
87 8% 23%  
88 5% 15%  
89 6% 10%  
90 3% 5%  
91 0.6% 1.3%  
92 0.5% 0.7%  
93 0.2% 0.2%  
94 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party – Social Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0% 100%  
51 0.1% 99.9%  
52 0.1% 99.8%  
53 0.2% 99.7%  
54 0.2% 99.5%  
55 0.4% 99.3%  
56 0.4% 98.9% Last Result
57 2% 98.5%  
58 2% 97%  
59 1.4% 95%  
60 2% 93%  
61 14% 92%  
62 9% 77%  
63 6% 69% Median
64 25% 63%  
65 10% 38%  
66 4% 28%  
67 7% 24%  
68 7% 17%  
69 3% 10%  
70 4% 7%  
71 0.7% 3%  
72 0.8% 2%  
73 0.7% 1.0%  
74 0.1% 0.3%  
75 0.1% 0.2%  
76 0% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0% 99.9%  
47 0.1% 99.9%  
48 0.2% 99.9%  
49 0.1% 99.7%  
50 0.2% 99.6%  
51 0.1% 99.4%  
52 0.4% 99.2%  
53 0.5% 98.8% Last Result
54 3% 98%  
55 1.2% 95%  
56 2% 94%  
57 6% 92%  
58 12% 86%  
59 10% 74%  
60 18% 64% Median
61 12% 46%  
62 9% 34%  
63 4% 25%  
64 8% 21%  
65 4% 12%  
66 3% 8%  
67 3% 5%  
68 0.8% 2%  
69 0.6% 1.3%  
70 0.5% 0.7%  
71 0.1% 0.2%  
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
47 0.2% 99.8%  
48 0.1% 99.6%  
49 0.3% 99.5%  
50 0.4% 99.2%  
51 0.3% 98.9%  
52 0.9% 98.5%  
53 4% 98%  
54 2% 94%  
55 9% 92%  
56 9% 83%  
57 6% 74%  
58 10% 68%  
59 21% 58% Median
60 6% 37%  
61 9% 31%  
62 4% 22%  
63 8% 18%  
64 2% 10%  
65 2% 7%  
66 4% 5%  
67 0.8% 2%  
68 0.3% 0.7%  
69 0.3% 0.5%  
70 0.1% 0.2%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party – Social Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0% 100%  
47 0.1% 99.9%  
48 0.2% 99.8%  
49 1.3% 99.6%  
50 2% 98%  
51 3% 96%  
52 4% 93%  
53 4% 89%  
54 20% 85% Median
55 7% 65%  
56 10% 58%  
57 17% 48%  
58 18% 32%  
59 5% 14%  
60 4% 8%  
61 1.2% 4% Last Result
62 1.1% 3%  
63 0.9% 2%  
64 0.6% 1.2%  
65 0.2% 0.5%  
66 0.2% 0.4%  
67 0.1% 0.2%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0% 100%  
43 0.1% 99.9%  
44 0.1% 99.8%  
45 0.9% 99.7%  
46 2% 98.8%  
47 3% 97%  
48 4% 94%  
49 4% 90%  
50 20% 87%  
51 5% 67% Median
52 8% 61%  
53 12% 53%  
54 16% 41%  
55 14% 25%  
56 5% 11%  
57 3% 6%  
58 1.0% 3% Last Result
59 0.7% 2%  
60 0.8% 2%  
61 0.6% 0.9%  
62 0.1% 0.3%  
63 0.1% 0.2%  
64 0% 0.2%  
65 0.1% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0% 99.9%  
37 0% 99.9%  
38 0.1% 99.9%  
39 0.1% 99.8%  
40 0.2% 99.7%  
41 0.4% 99.5%  
42 0.6% 99.1%  
43 0.7% 98.5%  
44 0.5% 98%  
45 3% 97%  
46 2% 94%  
47 2% 92%  
48 8% 90%  
49 6% 81%  
50 21% 75%  
51 6% 55% Last Result, Median
52 20% 49%  
53 7% 29%  
54 9% 23%  
55 6% 14%  
56 4% 7%  
57 2% 3%  
58 0.9% 1.2%  
59 0.2% 0.2%  
60 0% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.1% 99.9%  
43 0.4% 99.8%  
44 2% 99.4%  
45 2% 97%  
46 3% 95%  
47 2% 92%  
48 6% 90%  
49 22% 84%  
50 8% 62% Median
51 11% 54% Last Result
52 12% 43%  
53 17% 32%  
54 7% 15%  
55 3% 8%  
56 2% 5%  
57 0.9% 3%  
58 0.7% 2%  
59 0.8% 1.3%  
60 0.3% 0.6%  
61 0.1% 0.3%  
62 0.1% 0.2%  
63 0% 0.1%  
64 0.1% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  

Sinn Féin – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party – Social Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0% 100% Last Result
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.3% 99.8%  
45 1.2% 99.5%  
46 5% 98%  
47 23% 94% Median
48 17% 71%  
49 17% 54%  
50 9% 37%  
51 10% 28%  
52 8% 18%  
53 3% 10%  
54 2% 7%  
55 2% 5%  
56 2% 3%  
57 0.3% 1.0%  
58 0.3% 0.7%  
59 0.1% 0.3%  
60 0.1% 0.2%  
61 0% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  

Sinn Féin – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party – Social Democrats – Solidarity–People Before Profit

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0% 100% Last Result
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 100%  
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.2% 99.8%  
46 3% 99.7%  
47 8% 97%  
48 24% 89% Median
49 11% 65%  
50 17% 54%  
51 10% 37%  
52 10% 27%  
53 7% 18%  
54 3% 10%  
55 2% 7%  
56 3% 5%  
57 1.2% 2%  
58 0.3% 1.0%  
59 0.3% 0.7%  
60 0.2% 0.4%  
61 0.1% 0.2%  
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Sinn Féin – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party – Solidarity–People Before Profit

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0% 100% Last Result
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0.2% 99.9%  
42 0.6% 99.8%  
43 4% 99.1%  
44 22% 95%  
45 16% 73% Median
46 10% 57%  
47 16% 48%  
48 12% 32%  
49 6% 20%  
50 6% 14%  
51 3% 8%  
52 2% 5%  
53 1.4% 3%  
54 0.8% 2%  
55 0.3% 0.7%  
56 0.2% 0.5%  
57 0.2% 0.3%  
58 0% 0.1%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  

Sinn Féin – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0% 100% Last Result
33 0% 100%  
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.4% 99.8%  
42 3% 99.4%  
43 19% 96%  
44 14% 78% Median
45 16% 63%  
46 16% 47%  
47 12% 31%  
48 6% 19%  
49 6% 14%  
50 3% 8%  
51 2% 5%  
52 1.3% 3%  
53 0.9% 2%  
54 0.3% 0.7%  
55 0.2% 0.4%  
56 0.1% 0.2%  
57 0% 0.1%  
58 0% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 99.9%  
33 0.1% 99.9%  
34 0.4% 99.8%  
35 0.7% 99.5%  
36 2% 98.7%  
37 3% 97%  
38 3% 94%  
39 3% 91%  
40 7% 88%  
41 7% 81%  
42 23% 74% Median
43 11% 51%  
44 9% 40%  
45 11% 32%  
46 6% 21%  
47 11% 15%  
48 3% 4%  
49 0.5% 2%  
50 0.5% 1.2%  
51 0.2% 0.7%  
52 0.2% 0.6%  
53 0.1% 0.3%  
54 0.1% 0.2%  
55 0% 0.1%  
56 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
57 0% 0%  

Fine Gael

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.1% 99.9%  
32 0.1% 99.8%  
33 0.3% 99.7%  
34 0.7% 99.4%  
35 3% 98.7%  
36 3% 95%  
37 3% 92%  
38 3% 89%  
39 7% 86%  
40 8% 79%  
41 22% 71% Median
42 17% 48%  
43 6% 31%  
44 18% 26%  
45 3% 8%  
46 2% 5%  
47 2% 3%  
48 0.7% 2%  
49 0.3% 0.9% Last Result
50 0.1% 0.6%  
51 0.3% 0.5%  
52 0% 0.2%  
53 0% 0.1%  
54 0% 0.1%  
55 0% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations