Opinion Poll by Ireland Thinks for The Irish Daily Mail, 1–25 January 2020
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
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Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Fianna Fáil |
24.3% |
27.0% |
25.2–28.9% |
24.7–29.4% |
24.2–29.9% |
23.4–30.8% |
Fine Gael |
25.5% |
22.0% |
20.3–23.8% |
19.8–24.3% |
19.4–24.7% |
18.7–25.6% |
Sinn Féin |
13.8% |
20.0% |
18.4–21.7% |
17.9–22.2% |
17.5–22.6% |
16.8–23.5% |
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas |
2.7% |
10.0% |
8.8–11.3% |
8.5–11.7% |
8.2–12.1% |
7.7–12.7% |
Independent |
15.9% |
9.3% |
8.2–10.7% |
7.9–11.1% |
7.6–11.4% |
7.1–12.0% |
Labour Party |
6.6% |
6.1% |
5.2–7.2% |
4.9–7.5% |
4.7–7.8% |
4.3–8.3% |
Social Democrats |
3.0% |
3.0% |
2.4–3.8% |
2.2–4.1% |
2.1–4.3% |
1.8–4.7% |
Independents 4 Change |
1.5% |
1.2% |
0.8–1.8% |
0.7–1.9% |
0.7–2.1% |
0.5–2.4% |
Solidarity–People Before Profit |
3.9% |
1.0% |
0.7–1.5% |
0.6–1.7% |
0.5–1.8% |
0.4–2.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
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Confidence Intervals
Fianna Fáil
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fianna Fáil page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
37 |
0% |
100% |
|
38 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
39 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
40 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
41 |
0.3% |
99.6% |
|
42 |
0.3% |
99.3% |
|
43 |
0.9% |
99.0% |
|
44 |
1.0% |
98% |
Last Result |
45 |
2% |
97% |
|
46 |
12% |
95% |
|
47 |
7% |
83% |
|
48 |
10% |
76% |
|
49 |
13% |
66% |
|
50 |
13% |
54% |
Median |
51 |
9% |
40% |
|
52 |
5% |
32% |
|
53 |
6% |
27% |
|
54 |
8% |
21% |
|
55 |
4% |
13% |
|
56 |
4% |
9% |
|
57 |
3% |
5% |
|
58 |
1.4% |
2% |
|
59 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
60 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
61 |
0% |
0% |
|
Fine Gael
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fine Gael page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
24 |
0% |
100% |
|
25 |
0.4% |
99.9% |
|
26 |
0.9% |
99.5% |
|
27 |
1.1% |
98.6% |
|
28 |
2% |
97% |
|
29 |
3% |
96% |
|
30 |
4% |
93% |
|
31 |
4% |
89% |
|
32 |
4% |
85% |
|
33 |
9% |
81% |
|
34 |
6% |
72% |
|
35 |
8% |
66% |
|
36 |
5% |
58% |
|
37 |
6% |
54% |
Median |
38 |
5% |
48% |
|
39 |
6% |
43% |
|
40 |
12% |
36% |
|
41 |
6% |
24% |
|
42 |
5% |
19% |
|
43 |
4% |
13% |
|
44 |
3% |
9% |
|
45 |
3% |
5% |
|
46 |
1.1% |
3% |
|
47 |
0.7% |
2% |
|
48 |
0.3% |
0.8% |
|
49 |
0.2% |
0.5% |
Last Result |
50 |
0.2% |
0.4% |
|
51 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
52 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sinn Féin
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinn Féin page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
23 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
24 |
0% |
100% |
|
25 |
0% |
100% |
|
26 |
0% |
100% |
|
27 |
0% |
100% |
|
28 |
0% |
100% |
|
29 |
0% |
100% |
|
30 |
0% |
100% |
|
31 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
32 |
0.5% |
99.8% |
|
33 |
1.1% |
99.3% |
|
34 |
19% |
98% |
|
35 |
20% |
79% |
|
36 |
22% |
59% |
Median |
37 |
25% |
37% |
|
38 |
10% |
11% |
|
39 |
1.0% |
2% |
|
40 |
0.5% |
0.6% |
|
41 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
42 |
0% |
0% |
|
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party/Comhaontas Glas page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0.9% |
100% |
|
8 |
3% |
99.0% |
|
9 |
2% |
96% |
|
10 |
3% |
94% |
|
11 |
5% |
91% |
|
12 |
16% |
86% |
|
13 |
7% |
70% |
|
14 |
5% |
63% |
|
15 |
5% |
58% |
|
16 |
8% |
53% |
Median |
17 |
4% |
45% |
|
18 |
6% |
41% |
|
19 |
28% |
35% |
|
20 |
4% |
7% |
|
21 |
2% |
4% |
|
22 |
0.7% |
1.2% |
|
23 |
0.2% |
0.5% |
|
24 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
Independent
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independent page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
3 |
21% |
100% |
|
4 |
6% |
79% |
|
5 |
7% |
73% |
|
6 |
5% |
66% |
|
7 |
19% |
61% |
Median |
8 |
10% |
41% |
|
9 |
5% |
31% |
|
10 |
5% |
26% |
|
11 |
6% |
21% |
|
12 |
1.5% |
15% |
|
13 |
7% |
14% |
|
14 |
3% |
7% |
|
15 |
3% |
4% |
|
16 |
0.3% |
0.5% |
|
17 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Labour Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
1 |
1.1% |
99.9% |
|
2 |
3% |
98.9% |
|
3 |
1.4% |
96% |
|
4 |
5% |
94% |
|
5 |
13% |
89% |
|
6 |
14% |
76% |
|
7 |
13% |
62% |
Last Result, Median |
8 |
5% |
49% |
|
9 |
9% |
44% |
|
10 |
10% |
35% |
|
11 |
3% |
25% |
|
12 |
3% |
22% |
|
13 |
4% |
19% |
|
14 |
3% |
16% |
|
15 |
3% |
12% |
|
16 |
5% |
9% |
|
17 |
2% |
4% |
|
18 |
1.4% |
2% |
|
19 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
20 |
0% |
0% |
|
Social Democrats
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Social Democrats page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
3 |
75% |
99.6% |
Last Result, Median |
4 |
19% |
25% |
|
5 |
2% |
6% |
|
6 |
1.2% |
4% |
|
7 |
0.8% |
3% |
|
8 |
1.3% |
2% |
|
9 |
0.8% |
0.8% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
Independents 4 Change
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents 4 Change page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
7% |
100% |
|
1 |
24% |
93% |
|
2 |
10% |
69% |
|
3 |
58% |
60% |
Median |
4 |
2% |
2% |
Last Result |
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Solidarity–People Before Profit
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Solidarity–People Before Profit page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
93% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
7% |
7% |
|
2 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
|
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Coalitions
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Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Fianna Fáil – Fine Gael |
93 |
87 |
90% |
80–94 |
78–95 |
77–96 |
74–100 |
Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin |
67 |
86 |
95% |
81–90 |
81–92 |
80–93 |
76–94 |
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party – Social Democrats |
56 |
77 |
26% |
71–84 |
70–85 |
69–87 |
68–89 |
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party |
53 |
74 |
9% |
68–80 |
67–82 |
66–84 |
64–86 |
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas |
46 |
65 |
0% |
59–73 |
57–75 |
56–76 |
54–77 |
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party – Social Democrats |
61 |
64 |
0% |
59–71 |
58–72 |
56–75 |
54–76 |
Sinn Féin – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party – Social Democrats |
35 |
63 |
0% |
57–69 |
56–71 |
55–72 |
53–75 |
Sinn Féin – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party – Social Democrats – Solidarity–People Before Profit |
41 |
63 |
0% |
58–69 |
56–71 |
55–72 |
53–75 |
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party |
58 |
60 |
0% |
56–68 |
54–69 |
53–72 |
50–73 |
Sinn Féin – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party – Solidarity–People Before Profit |
38 |
59 |
0% |
54–66 |
53–68 |
51–69 |
49–72 |
Sinn Féin – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party |
32 |
59 |
0% |
54–65 |
53–68 |
51–68 |
49–72 |
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party |
51 |
59 |
0% |
54–64 |
53–65 |
51–66 |
48–69 |
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas |
51 |
52 |
0% |
47–57 |
46–58 |
44–59 |
42–63 |
Fine Gael – Labour Party |
56 |
45 |
0% |
37–54 |
37–56 |
35–57 |
33–59 |
Fine Gael |
49 |
37 |
0% |
30–43 |
29–45 |
27–46 |
26–49 |
Fianna Fáil – Fine Gael
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
71 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
72 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
73 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
74 |
0.6% |
99.8% |
|
75 |
0.5% |
99.2% |
|
76 |
0.8% |
98.7% |
|
77 |
2% |
98% |
|
78 |
2% |
96% |
|
79 |
1.4% |
94% |
|
80 |
3% |
92% |
|
81 |
2% |
90% |
Majority |
82 |
8% |
88% |
|
83 |
5% |
80% |
|
84 |
7% |
75% |
|
85 |
6% |
68% |
|
86 |
9% |
62% |
|
87 |
6% |
53% |
Median |
88 |
5% |
47% |
|
89 |
6% |
42% |
|
90 |
11% |
36% |
|
91 |
4% |
25% |
|
92 |
5% |
20% |
|
93 |
4% |
15% |
Last Result |
94 |
4% |
11% |
|
95 |
3% |
7% |
|
96 |
2% |
4% |
|
97 |
0.6% |
2% |
|
98 |
0.4% |
1.4% |
|
99 |
0.3% |
0.9% |
|
100 |
0.3% |
0.6% |
|
101 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
102 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
103 |
0% |
0% |
|
Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
67 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
68 |
0% |
100% |
|
69 |
0% |
100% |
|
70 |
0% |
100% |
|
71 |
0% |
100% |
|
72 |
0% |
100% |
|
73 |
0% |
100% |
|
74 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
75 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
76 |
0.3% |
99.7% |
|
77 |
0.5% |
99.4% |
|
78 |
0.4% |
98.9% |
|
79 |
1.0% |
98% |
|
80 |
2% |
98% |
|
81 |
6% |
95% |
Majority |
82 |
8% |
89% |
|
83 |
6% |
81% |
|
84 |
9% |
75% |
|
85 |
11% |
66% |
|
86 |
8% |
55% |
Median |
87 |
13% |
47% |
|
88 |
10% |
35% |
|
89 |
8% |
25% |
|
90 |
7% |
17% |
|
91 |
4% |
10% |
|
92 |
3% |
6% |
|
93 |
0.9% |
3% |
|
94 |
2% |
2% |
|
95 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
96 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
97 |
0% |
0% |
|
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party – Social Democrats

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
56 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
57 |
0% |
100% |
|
58 |
0% |
100% |
|
59 |
0% |
100% |
|
60 |
0% |
100% |
|
61 |
0% |
100% |
|
62 |
0% |
100% |
|
63 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
64 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
65 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
66 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
67 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
68 |
1.0% |
99.6% |
|
69 |
2% |
98.6% |
|
70 |
3% |
96% |
|
71 |
3% |
93% |
|
72 |
3% |
90% |
|
73 |
4% |
87% |
|
74 |
5% |
83% |
|
75 |
14% |
78% |
|
76 |
10% |
64% |
Median |
77 |
8% |
54% |
|
78 |
8% |
46% |
|
79 |
7% |
37% |
|
80 |
4% |
31% |
|
81 |
5% |
26% |
Majority |
82 |
4% |
21% |
|
83 |
6% |
18% |
|
84 |
2% |
11% |
|
85 |
5% |
9% |
|
86 |
1.2% |
4% |
|
87 |
1.1% |
3% |
|
88 |
0.9% |
2% |
|
89 |
0.4% |
0.9% |
|
90 |
0.4% |
0.5% |
|
91 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
92 |
0% |
0% |
|
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
53 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
54 |
0% |
100% |
|
55 |
0% |
100% |
|
56 |
0% |
100% |
|
57 |
0% |
100% |
|
58 |
0% |
100% |
|
59 |
0% |
100% |
|
60 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
61 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
62 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
63 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
64 |
0.9% |
99.6% |
|
65 |
0.5% |
98.7% |
|
66 |
3% |
98% |
|
67 |
4% |
96% |
|
68 |
4% |
92% |
|
69 |
3% |
88% |
|
70 |
5% |
85% |
|
71 |
5% |
80% |
|
72 |
14% |
75% |
|
73 |
10% |
61% |
Median |
74 |
9% |
50% |
|
75 |
7% |
42% |
|
76 |
6% |
35% |
|
77 |
4% |
28% |
|
78 |
5% |
24% |
|
79 |
5% |
19% |
|
80 |
5% |
14% |
|
81 |
1.4% |
9% |
Majority |
82 |
4% |
8% |
|
83 |
1.1% |
4% |
|
84 |
1.0% |
3% |
|
85 |
0.7% |
2% |
|
86 |
0.4% |
0.9% |
|
87 |
0.4% |
0.5% |
|
88 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
89 |
0% |
0% |
|
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
46 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
47 |
0% |
100% |
|
48 |
0% |
100% |
|
49 |
0% |
100% |
|
50 |
0% |
100% |
|
51 |
0% |
100% |
|
52 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
53 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
54 |
0.4% |
99.7% |
|
55 |
0.6% |
99.3% |
|
56 |
2% |
98.7% |
|
57 |
3% |
97% |
|
58 |
2% |
94% |
|
59 |
4% |
92% |
|
60 |
4% |
88% |
|
61 |
7% |
85% |
|
62 |
14% |
78% |
|
63 |
3% |
64% |
|
64 |
8% |
60% |
|
65 |
6% |
53% |
|
66 |
6% |
47% |
Median |
67 |
6% |
41% |
|
68 |
5% |
35% |
|
69 |
5% |
29% |
|
70 |
3% |
24% |
|
71 |
2% |
21% |
|
72 |
4% |
19% |
|
73 |
7% |
15% |
|
74 |
2% |
8% |
|
75 |
4% |
6% |
|
76 |
1.2% |
3% |
|
77 |
1.1% |
1.4% |
|
78 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
79 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
80 |
0% |
0% |
|
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party – Social Democrats

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
52 |
0% |
100% |
|
53 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
54 |
0.8% |
99.8% |
|
55 |
0.7% |
98.9% |
|
56 |
2% |
98% |
|
57 |
1.4% |
97% |
|
58 |
2% |
95% |
|
59 |
5% |
93% |
|
60 |
6% |
87% |
|
61 |
10% |
81% |
Last Result |
62 |
10% |
72% |
|
63 |
9% |
62% |
Median |
64 |
7% |
53% |
|
65 |
14% |
46% |
|
66 |
6% |
33% |
|
67 |
4% |
27% |
|
68 |
6% |
23% |
|
69 |
3% |
17% |
|
70 |
3% |
14% |
|
71 |
4% |
11% |
|
72 |
2% |
7% |
|
73 |
0.9% |
5% |
|
74 |
1.0% |
4% |
|
75 |
2% |
3% |
|
76 |
0.6% |
0.8% |
|
77 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
78 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
79 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
80 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
81 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
Sinn Féin – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party – Social Democrats

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
35 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
36 |
0% |
100% |
|
37 |
0% |
100% |
|
38 |
0% |
100% |
|
39 |
0% |
100% |
|
40 |
0% |
100% |
|
41 |
0% |
100% |
|
42 |
0% |
100% |
|
43 |
0% |
100% |
|
44 |
0% |
100% |
|
45 |
0% |
100% |
|
46 |
0% |
100% |
|
47 |
0% |
100% |
|
48 |
0% |
100% |
|
49 |
0% |
100% |
|
50 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
51 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
52 |
0.3% |
99.8% |
|
53 |
0.5% |
99.5% |
|
54 |
0.9% |
99.0% |
|
55 |
2% |
98% |
|
56 |
3% |
96% |
|
57 |
4% |
93% |
|
58 |
4% |
90% |
|
59 |
4% |
86% |
|
60 |
5% |
82% |
|
61 |
9% |
77% |
|
62 |
16% |
68% |
Median |
63 |
8% |
52% |
|
64 |
7% |
44% |
|
65 |
6% |
37% |
|
66 |
9% |
31% |
|
67 |
4% |
21% |
|
68 |
6% |
17% |
|
69 |
2% |
11% |
|
70 |
3% |
9% |
|
71 |
3% |
6% |
|
72 |
0.6% |
3% |
|
73 |
0.5% |
2% |
|
74 |
0.8% |
2% |
|
75 |
0.5% |
0.9% |
|
76 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
77 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
78 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sinn Féin – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party – Social Democrats – Solidarity–People Before Profit

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
41 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
42 |
0% |
100% |
|
43 |
0% |
100% |
|
44 |
0% |
100% |
|
45 |
0% |
100% |
|
46 |
0% |
100% |
|
47 |
0% |
100% |
|
48 |
0% |
100% |
|
49 |
0% |
100% |
|
50 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
51 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
52 |
0.2% |
99.8% |
|
53 |
0.5% |
99.6% |
|
54 |
0.9% |
99.1% |
|
55 |
2% |
98% |
|
56 |
3% |
96% |
|
57 |
3% |
93% |
|
58 |
4% |
90% |
|
59 |
4% |
87% |
|
60 |
5% |
82% |
|
61 |
8% |
77% |
|
62 |
16% |
69% |
Median |
63 |
8% |
52% |
|
64 |
7% |
45% |
|
65 |
6% |
38% |
|
66 |
9% |
31% |
|
67 |
4% |
22% |
|
68 |
6% |
18% |
|
69 |
3% |
12% |
|
70 |
3% |
9% |
|
71 |
3% |
6% |
|
72 |
0.9% |
3% |
|
73 |
0.5% |
2% |
|
74 |
0.8% |
2% |
|
75 |
0.6% |
0.9% |
|
76 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
77 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
78 |
0% |
0% |
|
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
47 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
48 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
49 |
0.3% |
99.9% |
|
50 |
0.3% |
99.6% |
|
51 |
0.8% |
99.2% |
|
52 |
0.6% |
98% |
|
53 |
2% |
98% |
|
54 |
3% |
96% |
|
55 |
3% |
93% |
|
56 |
6% |
90% |
|
57 |
7% |
84% |
|
58 |
8% |
77% |
Last Result |
59 |
13% |
69% |
|
60 |
7% |
56% |
Median |
61 |
6% |
50% |
|
62 |
14% |
44% |
|
63 |
4% |
29% |
|
64 |
5% |
25% |
|
65 |
5% |
21% |
|
66 |
3% |
15% |
|
67 |
2% |
13% |
|
68 |
4% |
10% |
|
69 |
2% |
7% |
|
70 |
0.9% |
5% |
|
71 |
1.0% |
4% |
|
72 |
2% |
3% |
|
73 |
0.5% |
0.7% |
|
74 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
75 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
76 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
77 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
78 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sinn Féin – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party – Solidarity–People Before Profit

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
38 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
39 |
0% |
100% |
|
40 |
0% |
100% |
|
41 |
0% |
100% |
|
42 |
0% |
100% |
|
43 |
0% |
100% |
|
44 |
0% |
100% |
|
45 |
0% |
100% |
|
46 |
0% |
100% |
|
47 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
48 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
49 |
0.3% |
99.7% |
|
50 |
1.0% |
99.4% |
|
51 |
2% |
98% |
|
52 |
1.2% |
96% |
|
53 |
4% |
95% |
|
54 |
3% |
91% |
|
55 |
4% |
89% |
|
56 |
6% |
85% |
|
57 |
7% |
79% |
|
58 |
8% |
73% |
|
59 |
16% |
65% |
Median |
60 |
7% |
48% |
|
61 |
7% |
41% |
|
62 |
6% |
35% |
|
63 |
8% |
29% |
|
64 |
6% |
21% |
|
65 |
5% |
15% |
|
66 |
2% |
10% |
|
67 |
3% |
8% |
|
68 |
3% |
5% |
|
69 |
0.8% |
3% |
|
70 |
0.4% |
2% |
|
71 |
0.8% |
2% |
|
72 |
0.6% |
0.9% |
|
73 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
74 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
75 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sinn Féin – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
32 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
33 |
0% |
100% |
|
34 |
0% |
100% |
|
35 |
0% |
100% |
|
36 |
0% |
100% |
|
37 |
0% |
100% |
|
38 |
0% |
100% |
|
39 |
0% |
100% |
|
40 |
0% |
100% |
|
41 |
0% |
100% |
|
42 |
0% |
100% |
|
43 |
0% |
100% |
|
44 |
0% |
100% |
|
45 |
0% |
100% |
|
46 |
0% |
100% |
|
47 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
48 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
49 |
0.4% |
99.7% |
|
50 |
1.0% |
99.3% |
|
51 |
2% |
98% |
|
52 |
1.2% |
96% |
|
53 |
4% |
95% |
|
54 |
3% |
91% |
|
55 |
4% |
88% |
|
56 |
5% |
84% |
|
57 |
7% |
79% |
|
58 |
7% |
72% |
|
59 |
17% |
64% |
Median |
60 |
7% |
48% |
|
61 |
7% |
41% |
|
62 |
6% |
34% |
|
63 |
8% |
29% |
|
64 |
5% |
20% |
|
65 |
5% |
15% |
|
66 |
2% |
10% |
|
67 |
3% |
8% |
|
68 |
3% |
5% |
|
69 |
0.5% |
2% |
|
70 |
0.5% |
2% |
|
71 |
0.8% |
2% |
|
72 |
0.5% |
0.8% |
|
73 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
74 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
75 |
0% |
0% |
|
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
45 |
0% |
100% |
|
46 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
47 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
48 |
0.4% |
99.7% |
|
49 |
0.8% |
99.3% |
|
50 |
0.6% |
98.6% |
|
51 |
1.0% |
98% |
Last Result |
52 |
2% |
97% |
|
53 |
5% |
95% |
|
54 |
8% |
90% |
|
55 |
5% |
82% |
|
56 |
7% |
76% |
|
57 |
8% |
70% |
Median |
58 |
7% |
62% |
|
59 |
8% |
55% |
|
60 |
16% |
47% |
|
61 |
7% |
31% |
|
62 |
5% |
24% |
|
63 |
8% |
19% |
|
64 |
5% |
11% |
|
65 |
2% |
6% |
|
66 |
2% |
4% |
|
67 |
0.8% |
2% |
|
68 |
0.6% |
1.2% |
|
69 |
0.3% |
0.5% |
|
70 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
71 |
0% |
0% |
|
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
41 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
42 |
0.3% |
99.8% |
|
43 |
0.6% |
99.5% |
|
44 |
1.4% |
98.9% |
|
45 |
2% |
97% |
|
46 |
2% |
95% |
|
47 |
4% |
93% |
|
48 |
4% |
89% |
|
49 |
8% |
86% |
|
50 |
6% |
78% |
|
51 |
5% |
72% |
Last Result |
52 |
17% |
66% |
|
53 |
15% |
50% |
Median |
54 |
10% |
35% |
|
55 |
6% |
25% |
|
56 |
8% |
19% |
|
57 |
3% |
11% |
|
58 |
4% |
8% |
|
59 |
3% |
5% |
|
60 |
0.8% |
2% |
|
61 |
0.5% |
1.3% |
|
62 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
|
63 |
0.2% |
0.6% |
|
64 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
65 |
0.2% |
0.4% |
|
66 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
67 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
68 |
0% |
0% |
|
Fine Gael – Labour Party

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
31 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
32 |
0.4% |
99.9% |
|
33 |
0.2% |
99.5% |
|
34 |
2% |
99.3% |
|
35 |
0.6% |
98% |
|
36 |
2% |
97% |
|
37 |
6% |
95% |
|
38 |
6% |
89% |
|
39 |
7% |
83% |
|
40 |
11% |
77% |
|
41 |
4% |
66% |
|
42 |
3% |
62% |
|
43 |
4% |
60% |
|
44 |
3% |
56% |
Median |
45 |
4% |
53% |
|
46 |
3% |
49% |
|
47 |
3% |
47% |
|
48 |
3% |
44% |
|
49 |
6% |
40% |
|
50 |
12% |
35% |
|
51 |
3% |
23% |
|
52 |
4% |
20% |
|
53 |
3% |
16% |
|
54 |
4% |
13% |
|
55 |
2% |
9% |
|
56 |
4% |
7% |
Last Result |
57 |
2% |
4% |
|
58 |
0.7% |
2% |
|
59 |
0.7% |
1.0% |
|
60 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
61 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
62 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
63 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
64 |
0% |
0% |
|
Fine Gael

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
24 |
0% |
100% |
|
25 |
0.4% |
99.9% |
|
26 |
0.9% |
99.5% |
|
27 |
1.1% |
98.6% |
|
28 |
2% |
97% |
|
29 |
3% |
96% |
|
30 |
4% |
93% |
|
31 |
4% |
89% |
|
32 |
4% |
85% |
|
33 |
9% |
81% |
|
34 |
6% |
72% |
|
35 |
8% |
66% |
|
36 |
5% |
58% |
|
37 |
6% |
54% |
Median |
38 |
5% |
48% |
|
39 |
6% |
43% |
|
40 |
12% |
36% |
|
41 |
6% |
24% |
|
42 |
5% |
19% |
|
43 |
4% |
13% |
|
44 |
3% |
9% |
|
45 |
3% |
5% |
|
46 |
1.1% |
3% |
|
47 |
0.7% |
2% |
|
48 |
0.3% |
0.8% |
|
49 |
0.2% |
0.5% |
Last Result |
50 |
0.2% |
0.4% |
|
51 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
52 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ireland Thinks
- Commissioner(s): The Irish Daily Mail
- Fieldwork period: 1–25 January 2020
Calculations
- Sample size: 942
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 2.83%