Opinion Poll by Panelbase for The Times, 24–30 January 2020
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fianna Fáil | 24.3% | 23.0% | 21.4–24.8% | 20.9–25.3% | 20.5–25.7% | 19.7–26.6% |
| Sinn Féin | 13.8% | 21.0% | 19.4–22.7% | 19.0–23.2% | 18.6–23.6% | 17.8–24.5% |
| Fine Gael | 25.5% | 19.0% | 17.5–20.7% | 17.1–21.1% | 16.7–21.6% | 16.0–22.4% |
| Independent | 15.9% | 10.1% | 9.0–11.4% | 8.6–11.8% | 8.4–12.1% | 7.9–12.8% |
| Green Party/Comhaontas Glas | 2.7% | 10.0% | 8.9–11.3% | 8.6–11.7% | 8.3–12.0% | 7.8–12.7% |
| Labour Party | 6.6% | 5.0% | 4.2–6.0% | 4.0–6.3% | 3.8–6.5% | 3.5–7.1% |
| Solidarity–People Before Profit | 3.9% | 5.0% | 4.2–6.0% | 4.0–6.3% | 3.8–6.5% | 3.5–7.1% |
| Social Democrats | 3.0% | 5.0% | 4.2–6.0% | 4.0–6.3% | 3.8–6.5% | 3.5–7.1% |
| Independents 4 Change | 1.5% | 1.3% | 0.9–1.9% | 0.8–2.1% | 0.8–2.2% | 0.6–2.5% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fianna Fáil | 44 | 41 | 36–47 | 34–48 | 34–49 | 32–51 |
| Sinn Féin | 23 | 37 | 36–39 | 36–39 | 35–39 | 34–40 |
| Fine Gael | 49 | 31 | 28–35 | 26–36 | 25–37 | 24–39 |
| Independent | 19 | 11 | 6–15 | 5–15 | 5–16 | 4–17 |
| Green Party/Comhaontas Glas | 2 | 18 | 12–20 | 10–21 | 10–22 | 9–25 |
| Labour Party | 7 | 4 | 2–6 | 2–6 | 1–11 | 1–13 |
| Solidarity–People Before Profit | 6 | 7 | 4–9 | 4–10 | 4–10 | 3–10 |
| Social Democrats | 3 | 8 | 6–10 | 5–11 | 4–12 | 3–12 |
| Independents 4 Change | 4 | 3 | 1–3 | 1–4 | 1–4 | 0–4 |
Fianna Fáil
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fianna Fáil page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 31 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 32 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 33 | 1.3% | 99.4% | |
| 34 | 4% | 98% | |
| 35 | 2% | 94% | |
| 36 | 3% | 92% | |
| 37 | 6% | 89% | |
| 38 | 6% | 83% | |
| 39 | 15% | 77% | |
| 40 | 7% | 62% | |
| 41 | 15% | 55% | Median |
| 42 | 9% | 40% | |
| 43 | 4% | 31% | |
| 44 | 8% | 27% | Last Result |
| 45 | 4% | 18% | |
| 46 | 3% | 14% | |
| 47 | 3% | 11% | |
| 48 | 4% | 8% | |
| 49 | 2% | 4% | |
| 50 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 51 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 52 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 53 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 54 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% |
Sinn Féin
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinn Féin page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0% | 100% | |
| 31 | 0% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 34 | 2% | 99.6% | |
| 35 | 2% | 98% | |
| 36 | 11% | 96% | |
| 37 | 55% | 86% | Median |
| 38 | 17% | 31% | |
| 39 | 12% | 13% | |
| 40 | 2% | 2% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% |
Fine Gael
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fine Gael page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 23 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 24 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 25 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 26 | 3% | 97% | |
| 27 | 3% | 94% | |
| 28 | 6% | 91% | |
| 29 | 7% | 85% | |
| 30 | 13% | 78% | |
| 31 | 20% | 66% | Median |
| 32 | 14% | 46% | |
| 33 | 14% | 31% | |
| 34 | 4% | 18% | |
| 35 | 5% | 14% | |
| 36 | 5% | 9% | |
| 37 | 2% | 5% | |
| 38 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 39 | 0.9% | 1.1% | |
| 40 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 41 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Independent
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independent page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 4 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 5 | 3% | 98% | |
| 6 | 7% | 95% | |
| 7 | 9% | 88% | |
| 8 | 5% | 79% | |
| 9 | 7% | 74% | |
| 10 | 12% | 67% | |
| 11 | 8% | 54% | Median |
| 12 | 12% | 46% | |
| 13 | 16% | 34% | |
| 14 | 8% | 19% | |
| 15 | 7% | 11% | |
| 16 | 2% | 4% | |
| 17 | 1.2% | 1.3% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party/Comhaontas Glas page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 9 | 2% | 99.7% | |
| 10 | 5% | 98% | |
| 11 | 2% | 93% | |
| 12 | 2% | 91% | |
| 13 | 2% | 88% | |
| 14 | 5% | 87% | |
| 15 | 3% | 82% | |
| 16 | 6% | 79% | |
| 17 | 7% | 73% | |
| 18 | 27% | 66% | Median |
| 19 | 15% | 39% | |
| 20 | 16% | 25% | |
| 21 | 4% | 9% | |
| 22 | 3% | 5% | |
| 23 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 24 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 25 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 26 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% |
Labour Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4% | 100% | |
| 2 | 13% | 96% | |
| 3 | 4% | 82% | |
| 4 | 42% | 79% | Median |
| 5 | 23% | 37% | |
| 6 | 9% | 14% | |
| 7 | 1.3% | 4% | Last Result |
| 8 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 9 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 10 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 11 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 12 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 13 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 14 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Solidarity–People Before Profit
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Solidarity–People Before Profit page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2% | 100% | |
| 4 | 10% | 98% | |
| 5 | 9% | 87% | |
| 6 | 9% | 79% | Last Result |
| 7 | 40% | 70% | Median |
| 8 | 12% | 30% | |
| 9 | 12% | 18% | |
| 10 | 7% | 7% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Social Democrats
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Social Democrats page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 0.5% | 100% | Last Result |
| 4 | 3% | 99.5% | |
| 5 | 5% | 97% | |
| 6 | 10% | 92% | |
| 7 | 22% | 82% | |
| 8 | 16% | 60% | Median |
| 9 | 33% | 44% | |
| 10 | 6% | 11% | |
| 11 | 3% | 5% | |
| 12 | 3% | 3% | |
| 13 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 14 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Independents 4 Change
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents 4 Change page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 1 | 15% | 99.4% | |
| 2 | 16% | 84% | |
| 3 | 61% | 68% | Median |
| 4 | 7% | 7% | Last Result |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin | 67 | 78 | 27% | 73–84 | 72–87 | 71–87 | 69–89 |
| Fianna Fáil – Fine Gael | 93 | 72 | 7% | 67–79 | 66–81 | 65–82 | 62–86 |
| Sinn Féin – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party – Social Democrats – Solidarity–People Before Profit | 41 | 74 | 3% | 69–79 | 67–80 | 65–81 | 63–84 |
| Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party – Social Democrats | 56 | 70 | 1.2% | 66–76 | 63–78 | 62–79 | 60–82 |
| Sinn Féin – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party – Social Democrats | 35 | 67 | 0% | 62–72 | 60–73 | 59–74 | 56–77 |
| Sinn Féin – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party – Solidarity–People Before Profit | 38 | 66 | 0% | 61–70 | 60–72 | 57–73 | 55–75 |
| Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party | 53 | 63 | 0% | 58–68 | 56–69 | 54–71 | 51–74 |
| Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party – Social Democrats | 61 | 61 | 0% | 56–66 | 55–67 | 54–68 | 51–70 |
| Sinn Féin – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party | 32 | 59 | 0% | 54–63 | 52–65 | 51–66 | 48–69 |
| Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas | 46 | 59 | 0% | 53–64 | 52–65 | 50–66 | 47–69 |
| Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party | 58 | 53 | 0% | 48–57 | 48–58 | 47–60 | 44–62 |
| Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas | 51 | 49 | 0% | 44–53 | 43–53 | 42–55 | 39–56 |
| Fianna Fáil – Labour Party | 51 | 45 | 0% | 40–51 | 39–53 | 38–55 | 36–57 |
| Fine Gael – Labour Party | 56 | 35 | 0% | 32–40 | 31–42 | 30–43 | 28–46 |
| Fine Gael | 49 | 31 | 0% | 28–35 | 26–36 | 25–37 | 24–39 |
Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 66 | 0% | 100% | |
| 67 | 0% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 68 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 69 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 70 | 1.3% | 99.4% | |
| 71 | 2% | 98% | |
| 72 | 4% | 96% | |
| 73 | 4% | 92% | |
| 74 | 5% | 88% | |
| 75 | 5% | 83% | |
| 76 | 15% | 79% | |
| 77 | 6% | 63% | |
| 78 | 15% | 57% | Median |
| 79 | 7% | 42% | |
| 80 | 9% | 36% | |
| 81 | 6% | 27% | Majority |
| 82 | 5% | 21% | |
| 83 | 4% | 16% | |
| 84 | 4% | 12% | |
| 85 | 1.1% | 8% | |
| 86 | 1.4% | 7% | |
| 87 | 4% | 6% | |
| 88 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 89 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 90 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 91 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 92 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 93 | 0% | 0% |
Fianna Fáil – Fine Gael
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 60 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 62 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 63 | 0.4% | 99.4% | |
| 64 | 1.2% | 99.0% | |
| 65 | 2% | 98% | |
| 66 | 3% | 96% | |
| 67 | 7% | 93% | |
| 68 | 5% | 86% | |
| 69 | 6% | 81% | |
| 70 | 10% | 75% | |
| 71 | 14% | 65% | |
| 72 | 12% | 51% | Median |
| 73 | 5% | 39% | |
| 74 | 5% | 34% | |
| 75 | 3% | 29% | |
| 76 | 5% | 26% | |
| 77 | 5% | 21% | |
| 78 | 4% | 16% | |
| 79 | 4% | 12% | |
| 80 | 2% | 9% | |
| 81 | 4% | 7% | Majority |
| 82 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 83 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 84 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 85 | 0.3% | 1.2% | |
| 86 | 0.7% | 0.9% | |
| 87 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0% | |
| 91 | 0% | 0% | |
| 92 | 0% | 0% | |
| 93 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Sinn Féin – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party – Social Democrats – Solidarity–People Before Profit
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 41 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 42 | 0% | 100% | |
| 43 | 0% | 100% | |
| 44 | 0% | 100% | |
| 45 | 0% | 100% | |
| 46 | 0% | 100% | |
| 47 | 0% | 100% | |
| 48 | 0% | 100% | |
| 49 | 0% | 100% | |
| 50 | 0% | 100% | |
| 51 | 0% | 100% | |
| 52 | 0% | 100% | |
| 53 | 0% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0% | 100% | |
| 56 | 0% | 100% | |
| 57 | 0% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 63 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 64 | 1.4% | 99.4% | |
| 65 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 66 | 0.7% | 97% | |
| 67 | 1.5% | 96% | |
| 68 | 2% | 95% | |
| 69 | 8% | 93% | |
| 70 | 3% | 85% | |
| 71 | 5% | 82% | |
| 72 | 7% | 76% | |
| 73 | 17% | 69% | |
| 74 | 13% | 52% | Median |
| 75 | 11% | 39% | |
| 76 | 6% | 28% | |
| 77 | 5% | 22% | |
| 78 | 2% | 17% | |
| 79 | 9% | 14% | |
| 80 | 3% | 6% | |
| 81 | 1.0% | 3% | Majority |
| 82 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 83 | 0.5% | 1.1% | |
| 84 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 85 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 86 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% |
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party – Social Democrats
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 56 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 57 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 59 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 60 | 0.8% | 99.6% | |
| 61 | 0.6% | 98.8% | |
| 62 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 63 | 2% | 97% | |
| 64 | 2% | 95% | |
| 65 | 3% | 93% | |
| 66 | 3% | 90% | |
| 67 | 7% | 87% | |
| 68 | 5% | 81% | |
| 69 | 11% | 76% | |
| 70 | 21% | 65% | |
| 71 | 7% | 45% | Median |
| 72 | 6% | 37% | |
| 73 | 8% | 32% | |
| 74 | 7% | 24% | |
| 75 | 7% | 17% | |
| 76 | 3% | 11% | |
| 77 | 1.3% | 8% | |
| 78 | 4% | 7% | |
| 79 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 80 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 81 | 0.4% | 1.2% | Majority |
| 82 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 83 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 84 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0% |
Sinn Féin – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party – Social Democrats
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 36 | 0% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0% | 100% | |
| 39 | 0% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0% | 100% | |
| 42 | 0% | 100% | |
| 43 | 0% | 100% | |
| 44 | 0% | 100% | |
| 45 | 0% | 100% | |
| 46 | 0% | 100% | |
| 47 | 0% | 100% | |
| 48 | 0% | 100% | |
| 49 | 0% | 100% | |
| 50 | 0% | 100% | |
| 51 | 0% | 100% | |
| 52 | 0% | 100% | |
| 53 | 0% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 55 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 56 | 0.5% | 99.5% | |
| 57 | 0.6% | 99.0% | |
| 58 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 59 | 1.3% | 98% | |
| 60 | 2% | 97% | |
| 61 | 2% | 94% | |
| 62 | 5% | 92% | |
| 63 | 3% | 87% | |
| 64 | 7% | 84% | |
| 65 | 9% | 77% | |
| 66 | 13% | 68% | |
| 67 | 12% | 55% | Median |
| 68 | 13% | 43% | |
| 69 | 8% | 30% | |
| 70 | 4% | 22% | |
| 71 | 5% | 17% | |
| 72 | 7% | 12% | |
| 73 | 2% | 5% | |
| 74 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 75 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 76 | 0.5% | 1.3% | |
| 77 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 78 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 79 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
Sinn Féin – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party – Solidarity–People Before Profit
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 38 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 39 | 0% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0% | 100% | |
| 42 | 0% | 100% | |
| 43 | 0% | 100% | |
| 44 | 0% | 100% | |
| 45 | 0% | 100% | |
| 46 | 0% | 100% | |
| 47 | 0% | 100% | |
| 48 | 0% | 100% | |
| 49 | 0% | 100% | |
| 50 | 0% | 100% | |
| 51 | 0% | 100% | |
| 52 | 0% | 100% | |
| 53 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 54 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 55 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 56 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 57 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 58 | 0.9% | 97% | |
| 59 | 1.0% | 96% | |
| 60 | 2% | 95% | |
| 61 | 8% | 93% | |
| 62 | 3% | 85% | |
| 63 | 9% | 82% | |
| 64 | 9% | 73% | |
| 65 | 6% | 65% | |
| 66 | 15% | 59% | Median |
| 67 | 8% | 43% | |
| 68 | 16% | 35% | |
| 69 | 3% | 19% | |
| 70 | 7% | 16% | |
| 71 | 2% | 9% | |
| 72 | 4% | 7% | |
| 73 | 2% | 3% | |
| 74 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 75 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 76 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 77 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% |
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 49 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 50 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 51 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 52 | 0.7% | 99.4% | |
| 53 | 0.9% | 98.7% | Last Result |
| 54 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 55 | 2% | 97% | |
| 56 | 0.8% | 95% | |
| 57 | 3% | 94% | |
| 58 | 6% | 91% | |
| 59 | 6% | 85% | |
| 60 | 4% | 79% | |
| 61 | 7% | 75% | |
| 62 | 6% | 68% | |
| 63 | 26% | 62% | Median |
| 64 | 9% | 36% | |
| 65 | 5% | 27% | |
| 66 | 6% | 22% | |
| 67 | 4% | 16% | |
| 68 | 3% | 11% | |
| 69 | 4% | 8% | |
| 70 | 1.0% | 4% | |
| 71 | 0.5% | 3% | |
| 72 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 73 | 0.5% | 1.2% | |
| 74 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 75 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 76 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 77 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% |
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party – Social Democrats
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 48 | 0% | 100% | |
| 49 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 50 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 51 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 52 | 0.3% | 99.0% | |
| 53 | 0.7% | 98.8% | |
| 54 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 55 | 2% | 97% | |
| 56 | 6% | 94% | |
| 57 | 7% | 88% | |
| 58 | 6% | 81% | |
| 59 | 6% | 75% | |
| 60 | 16% | 69% | |
| 61 | 11% | 54% | Last Result, Median |
| 62 | 7% | 43% | |
| 63 | 14% | 36% | |
| 64 | 7% | 22% | |
| 65 | 5% | 15% | |
| 66 | 2% | 10% | |
| 67 | 5% | 8% | |
| 68 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 69 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 70 | 0.6% | 1.1% | |
| 71 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 72 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 73 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 74 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% |
Sinn Féin – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 33 | 0% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0% | 100% | |
| 39 | 0% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0% | 100% | |
| 42 | 0% | 100% | |
| 43 | 0% | 100% | |
| 44 | 0% | 100% | |
| 45 | 0% | 100% | |
| 46 | 0% | 100% | |
| 47 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 48 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 49 | 0.6% | 99.5% | |
| 50 | 0.6% | 98.9% | |
| 51 | 1.3% | 98% | |
| 52 | 2% | 97% | |
| 53 | 2% | 95% | |
| 54 | 6% | 93% | |
| 55 | 2% | 87% | |
| 56 | 7% | 84% | |
| 57 | 8% | 77% | |
| 58 | 5% | 69% | |
| 59 | 22% | 64% | Median |
| 60 | 8% | 42% | |
| 61 | 14% | 34% | |
| 62 | 6% | 19% | |
| 63 | 5% | 13% | |
| 64 | 3% | 8% | |
| 65 | 2% | 5% | |
| 66 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 67 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 68 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 69 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 71 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% |
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 45 | 0% | 100% | |
| 46 | 0.1% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 47 | 0.8% | 99.9% | |
| 48 | 0.4% | 99.1% | |
| 49 | 0.6% | 98.7% | |
| 50 | 1.5% | 98% | |
| 51 | 0.7% | 97% | |
| 52 | 4% | 96% | |
| 53 | 3% | 92% | |
| 54 | 6% | 89% | |
| 55 | 5% | 83% | |
| 56 | 5% | 78% | |
| 57 | 5% | 73% | |
| 58 | 10% | 68% | |
| 59 | 26% | 58% | Median |
| 60 | 8% | 33% | |
| 61 | 6% | 25% | |
| 62 | 3% | 19% | |
| 63 | 5% | 15% | |
| 64 | 4% | 11% | |
| 65 | 4% | 7% | |
| 66 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 67 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 68 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 69 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 70 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 71 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% |
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 41 | 0% | 100% | |
| 42 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 43 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 44 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 45 | 0.8% | 99.2% | |
| 46 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 47 | 2% | 98% | |
| 48 | 8% | 96% | |
| 49 | 4% | 87% | |
| 50 | 7% | 83% | |
| 51 | 7% | 76% | |
| 52 | 9% | 69% | |
| 53 | 17% | 60% | Median |
| 54 | 8% | 44% | |
| 55 | 13% | 36% | |
| 56 | 11% | 23% | |
| 57 | 4% | 13% | |
| 58 | 5% | 9% | Last Result |
| 59 | 2% | 4% | |
| 60 | 2% | 3% | |
| 61 | 0.5% | 1.2% | |
| 62 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 63 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 64 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 65 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% |
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 37 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 39 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 40 | 0.4% | 99.4% | |
| 41 | 1.2% | 99.0% | |
| 42 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 43 | 5% | 97% | |
| 44 | 3% | 91% | |
| 45 | 5% | 88% | |
| 46 | 8% | 83% | |
| 47 | 6% | 75% | |
| 48 | 12% | 69% | |
| 49 | 15% | 57% | Median |
| 50 | 9% | 42% | |
| 51 | 10% | 33% | Last Result |
| 52 | 11% | 23% | |
| 53 | 7% | 11% | |
| 54 | 2% | 4% | |
| 55 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 56 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 57 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 58 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 59 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% |
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 36 | 0.9% | 99.7% | |
| 37 | 0.6% | 98.8% | |
| 38 | 3% | 98% | |
| 39 | 3% | 96% | |
| 40 | 3% | 92% | |
| 41 | 5% | 89% | |
| 42 | 6% | 84% | |
| 43 | 13% | 77% | |
| 44 | 9% | 64% | |
| 45 | 13% | 55% | Median |
| 46 | 8% | 42% | |
| 47 | 6% | 34% | |
| 48 | 6% | 28% | |
| 49 | 5% | 21% | |
| 50 | 4% | 17% | |
| 51 | 4% | 13% | Last Result |
| 52 | 1.0% | 9% | |
| 53 | 5% | 8% | |
| 54 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 55 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 56 | 0.6% | 1.3% | |
| 57 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 58 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 59 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 60 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% |
Fine Gael – Labour Party
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 27 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 28 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 29 | 0.6% | 99.4% | |
| 30 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 31 | 5% | 97% | |
| 32 | 10% | 92% | |
| 33 | 7% | 82% | |
| 34 | 10% | 75% | |
| 35 | 19% | 65% | Median |
| 36 | 13% | 47% | |
| 37 | 8% | 33% | |
| 38 | 10% | 25% | |
| 39 | 3% | 15% | |
| 40 | 3% | 12% | |
| 41 | 3% | 9% | |
| 42 | 3% | 6% | |
| 43 | 1.5% | 3% | |
| 44 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 45 | 0.7% | 1.2% | |
| 46 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 47 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 48 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 49 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Fine Gael
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 23 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 24 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 25 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 26 | 3% | 97% | |
| 27 | 3% | 94% | |
| 28 | 6% | 91% | |
| 29 | 7% | 85% | |
| 30 | 13% | 78% | |
| 31 | 20% | 66% | Median |
| 32 | 14% | 46% | |
| 33 | 14% | 31% | |
| 34 | 4% | 18% | |
| 35 | 5% | 14% | |
| 36 | 5% | 9% | |
| 37 | 2% | 5% | |
| 38 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 39 | 0.9% | 1.1% | |
| 40 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 41 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Panelbase
- Commissioner(s): The Times
- Fieldwork period: 24–30 January 2020
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.63%