Opinion Poll by Red C for The Sunday Business Post, 25–30 January 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fianna Fáil 24.3% 24.5% 22.8–26.3% 22.3–26.8% 21.9–27.3% 21.1–28.2%
Sinn Féin 13.8% 24.5% 22.8–26.3% 22.3–26.8% 21.9–27.3% 21.1–28.2%
Fine Gael 25.5% 21.4% 19.8–23.1% 19.4–23.6% 19.0–24.1% 18.2–24.9%
Independent 15.9% 11.2% 10.0–12.6% 9.7–13.0% 9.4–13.3% 8.8–14.0%
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2.7% 7.1% 6.2–8.3% 5.9–8.6% 5.7–8.9% 5.2–9.4%
Labour Party 6.6% 5.1% 4.3–6.1% 4.1–6.4% 3.9–6.6% 3.6–7.2%
Social Democrats 3.0% 3.1% 2.5–3.9% 2.3–4.2% 2.2–4.4% 1.9–4.8%
Independents 4 Change 1.5% 1.4% 1.0–2.0% 0.9–2.2% 0.8–2.3% 0.7–2.7%
Solidarity–People Before Profit 3.9% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.8% 0.4–2.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fianna Fáil 44 47 43–51 42–52 41–53 38–55
Sinn Féin 23 39 38–42 37–42 37–42 36–42
Fine Gael 49 40 35–43 34–43 33–45 31–48
Independent 19 14 10–17 8–17 7–18 6–19
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2 8 7–11 6–12 6–12 4–15
Labour Party 7 5 2–8 1–11 1–12 1–15
Social Democrats 3 4 3–6 3–7 3–8 3–9
Independents 4 Change 4 3 3 2–4 1–4 1–4
Solidarity–People Before Profit 6 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1

Fianna Fáil

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fianna Fáil page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.1% 99.9%  
37 0.1% 99.8%  
38 0.4% 99.7%  
39 0.7% 99.3%  
40 0.9% 98.6%  
41 2% 98%  
42 5% 96%  
43 9% 91%  
44 7% 82% Last Result
45 12% 75%  
46 10% 63%  
47 14% 53% Median
48 12% 39%  
49 8% 27%  
50 6% 19%  
51 7% 13%  
52 4% 6%  
53 1.2% 3%  
54 0.9% 1.4%  
55 0.3% 0.6%  
56 0.2% 0.2%  
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

Sinn Féin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinn Féin page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0% 100%  
35 0.4% 100%  
36 2% 99.6%  
37 3% 98%  
38 44% 95%  
39 18% 51% Median
40 13% 33%  
41 7% 19%  
42 12% 12%  
43 0% 0%  

Fine Gael

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fine Gael page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 99.9%  
29 0.1% 99.9%  
30 0.2% 99.8%  
31 0.5% 99.6%  
32 0.8% 99.1%  
33 1.2% 98%  
34 3% 97%  
35 6% 94%  
36 5% 89%  
37 7% 83%  
38 14% 76%  
39 9% 62%  
40 15% 53% Median
41 15% 37%  
42 11% 22%  
43 7% 11%  
44 1.4% 4%  
45 0.6% 3%  
46 0.9% 2%  
47 0.4% 1.0%  
48 0.3% 0.6%  
49 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
50 0% 0.2%  
51 0.1% 0.1%  
52 0% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Independent

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independent page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0% 100%  
5 0.3% 99.9%  
6 0.7% 99.7%  
7 2% 99.0%  
8 4% 97%  
9 3% 93%  
10 5% 90%  
11 4% 85%  
12 13% 81%  
13 14% 68%  
14 7% 53% Median
15 17% 46%  
16 17% 29%  
17 8% 13%  
18 4% 5%  
19 1.0% 1.1% Last Result
20 0% 0%  

Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party/Comhaontas Glas page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0.2% 100%  
4 0.5% 99.8%  
5 0.9% 99.4%  
6 4% 98%  
7 30% 95%  
8 28% 64% Median
9 8% 36%  
10 11% 28%  
11 11% 17%  
12 4% 6%  
13 1.2% 2%  
14 0.4% 1.0%  
15 0.2% 0.6%  
16 0.2% 0.4%  
17 0.1% 0.2%  
18 0.1% 0.2%  
19 0% 0%  

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 6% 99.9%  
2 5% 94%  
3 7% 89%  
4 7% 81%  
5 25% 74% Median
6 16% 49%  
7 16% 32% Last Result
8 8% 17%  
9 1.1% 9%  
10 3% 8%  
11 0.8% 5%  
12 2% 4%  
13 1.0% 2%  
14 0.5% 1.3%  
15 0.4% 0.8%  
16 0.3% 0.4%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Social Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Social Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.1% 100%  
3 45% 99.9% Last Result
4 34% 55% Median
5 7% 21%  
6 6% 14%  
7 3% 8%  
8 3% 5%  
9 2% 2%  
10 0% 0%  

Independents 4 Change

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents 4 Change page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.4% 100%  
1 4% 99.6%  
2 5% 96%  
3 82% 91% Median
4 9% 9% Last Result
5 0% 0%  

Solidarity–People Before Profit

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Solidarity–People Before Profit page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 93% 100% Median
1 7% 7%  
2 0% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fianna Fáil – Fine Gael 93 85 93% 81–91 80–93 79–94 76–97
Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin 67 86 92% 81–90 80–92 79–93 77–94
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party – Social Democrats 56 65 0% 61–69 60–71 58–72 55–75
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party 53 61 0% 56–65 55–66 54–68 50–71
Sinn Féin – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party – Social Democrats 35 57 0% 53–61 52–62 51–64 50–67
Sinn Féin – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party – Social Democrats – Solidarity–People Before Profit 41 57 0% 53–61 52–63 51–64 50–67
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party – Social Democrats 61 57 0% 54–61 53–62 52–63 50–66
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 46 55 0% 51–60 50–61 49–63 46–65
Sinn Féin – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party 32 53 0% 49–57 48–59 47–61 46–63
Sinn Féin – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party – Solidarity–People Before Profit 38 53 0% 49–57 48–59 47–61 46–63
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party 58 54 0% 50–57 49–58 48–59 46–62
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party 51 52 0% 48–57 47–58 46–59 42–62
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 51 48 0% 44–51 42–51 42–54 41–56
Fine Gael – Labour Party 56 45 0% 41–49 39–50 38–51 36–54
Fine Gael 49 40 0% 35–43 34–43 33–45 31–48

Fianna Fáil – Fine Gael

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0.1% 100%  
74 0.1% 99.9%  
75 0.1% 99.8%  
76 0.3% 99.6%  
77 1.0% 99.3%  
78 0.7% 98%  
79 1.4% 98%  
80 3% 96%  
81 4% 93% Majority
82 5% 89%  
83 6% 84%  
84 8% 77%  
85 22% 70%  
86 6% 48%  
87 10% 41% Median
88 10% 31%  
89 4% 21%  
90 3% 17%  
91 5% 14%  
92 3% 9%  
93 3% 6% Last Result
94 0.7% 3%  
95 1.2% 2%  
96 0.2% 0.9%  
97 0.4% 0.7%  
98 0.2% 0.2%  
99 0% 0.1%  
100 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0.1% 100%  
74 0% 99.9%  
75 0.1% 99.9%  
76 0.2% 99.7%  
77 0.6% 99.6%  
78 0.8% 99.0%  
79 1.0% 98%  
80 5% 97%  
81 7% 92% Majority
82 4% 85%  
83 9% 82%  
84 9% 73%  
85 12% 64%  
86 10% 52% Median
87 11% 42%  
88 8% 31%  
89 10% 23%  
90 4% 13%  
91 2% 9%  
92 4% 7%  
93 2% 4%  
94 1.3% 2%  
95 0.3% 0.4%  
96 0.1% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party – Social Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 99.9%  
52 0% 99.9%  
53 0% 99.9%  
54 0.1% 99.9%  
55 0.6% 99.8%  
56 0.2% 99.2% Last Result
57 0.7% 99.0%  
58 0.9% 98%  
59 2% 97%  
60 5% 95%  
61 9% 90%  
62 5% 81%  
63 11% 76%  
64 7% 65% Median
65 15% 58%  
66 17% 44%  
67 6% 27%  
68 9% 21%  
69 4% 13%  
70 3% 8%  
71 2% 5%  
72 1.0% 3%  
73 1.1% 2%  
74 0.3% 1.1%  
75 0.4% 0.8%  
76 0.3% 0.5%  
77 0.1% 0.2%  
78 0% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0% 99.9%  
49 0.1% 99.9%  
50 0.3% 99.8%  
51 0.1% 99.5%  
52 0.4% 99.3%  
53 0.8% 98.9% Last Result
54 0.9% 98%  
55 2% 97%  
56 9% 95%  
57 7% 86%  
58 6% 80%  
59 3% 73%  
60 14% 70% Median
61 14% 56%  
62 12% 43%  
63 11% 31%  
64 6% 19%  
65 5% 14%  
66 4% 9%  
67 1.4% 5%  
68 2% 3%  
69 0.4% 2%  
70 0.5% 1.2%  
71 0.2% 0.7%  
72 0.2% 0.5%  
73 0.2% 0.3%  
74 0% 0.1%  
75 0% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  

Sinn Féin – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party – Social Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0% 100% Last Result
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 100%  
46 0% 100%  
47 0% 100%  
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.2% 99.8%  
50 0.6% 99.6%  
51 3% 99.0%  
52 5% 96%  
53 6% 92%  
54 6% 86%  
55 6% 80%  
56 13% 74% Median
57 20% 61%  
58 7% 40%  
59 6% 33%  
60 9% 27%  
61 10% 19%  
62 4% 9%  
63 1.0% 5%  
64 1.5% 4%  
65 1.2% 2%  
66 0.3% 1.0%  
67 0.3% 0.7%  
68 0.3% 0.5%  
69 0.1% 0.2%  
70 0.1% 0.2%  
71 0% 0%  

Sinn Féin – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party – Social Democrats – Solidarity–People Before Profit

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0% 100% Last Result
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 100%  
46 0% 100%  
47 0% 100%  
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.3% 99.9%  
50 0.6% 99.6%  
51 2% 99.0%  
52 5% 97%  
53 6% 92%  
54 6% 86%  
55 6% 80%  
56 13% 74% Median
57 20% 61%  
58 8% 42%  
59 6% 34%  
60 9% 28%  
61 9% 19%  
62 4% 9%  
63 1.3% 5%  
64 1.5% 4%  
65 1.2% 2%  
66 0.3% 1.1%  
67 0.3% 0.7%  
68 0.3% 0.5%  
69 0.1% 0.2%  
70 0.1% 0.2%  
71 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party – Social Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.2% 99.9%  
50 0.3% 99.7%  
51 0.9% 99.4%  
52 3% 98%  
53 4% 96%  
54 8% 92%  
55 5% 83%  
56 9% 79%  
57 22% 69% Median
58 11% 47%  
59 9% 36%  
60 16% 27%  
61 4% 12% Last Result
62 3% 7%  
63 2% 4%  
64 0.5% 2%  
65 0.5% 1.2%  
66 0.3% 0.7%  
67 0.1% 0.3%  
68 0.1% 0.3%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 99.9%  
44 0% 99.9%  
45 0.2% 99.9%  
46 0.4% 99.7% Last Result
47 0.6% 99.3%  
48 0.9% 98.7%  
49 2% 98%  
50 5% 95%  
51 8% 91%  
52 4% 82%  
53 12% 78%  
54 11% 66%  
55 10% 55% Median
56 10% 45%  
57 7% 35%  
58 12% 28%  
59 5% 15%  
60 2% 10%  
61 5% 9%  
62 0.8% 4%  
63 1.4% 3%  
64 0.4% 1.3%  
65 0.6% 0.8%  
66 0.1% 0.2%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Sinn Féin – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0% 100% Last Result
33 0% 100%  
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 100%  
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.3% 99.9%  
46 0.4% 99.7%  
47 2% 99.2%  
48 5% 97%  
49 5% 92%  
50 7% 87%  
51 13% 80%  
52 9% 67% Median
53 13% 58%  
54 15% 45%  
55 6% 30%  
56 5% 24%  
57 10% 20%  
58 3% 9%  
59 3% 7%  
60 0.6% 3%  
61 1.1% 3%  
62 0.9% 2%  
63 0.2% 0.7%  
64 0.2% 0.5%  
65 0.1% 0.3%  
66 0% 0.1%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Sinn Féin – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party – Solidarity–People Before Profit

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0% 100% Last Result
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 100%  
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.2% 99.9%  
46 0.4% 99.7%  
47 2% 99.3%  
48 5% 97%  
49 5% 92%  
50 7% 87%  
51 13% 80%  
52 8% 67% Median
53 13% 59%  
54 15% 46%  
55 6% 31%  
56 4% 25%  
57 11% 21%  
58 2% 10%  
59 4% 7%  
60 0.7% 3%  
61 1.1% 3%  
62 0.9% 2%  
63 0.2% 0.7%  
64 0.2% 0.5%  
65 0.1% 0.3%  
66 0% 0.1%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0% 100%  
44 0.1% 99.9%  
45 0.3% 99.9%  
46 0.4% 99.5%  
47 1.2% 99.2%  
48 2% 98%  
49 5% 96%  
50 10% 91%  
51 6% 81%  
52 9% 75%  
53 13% 66% Median
54 15% 53%  
55 14% 38%  
56 12% 24%  
57 3% 11%  
58 3% 8% Last Result
59 3% 5%  
60 0.8% 2%  
61 0.5% 1.2%  
62 0.2% 0.7%  
63 0.2% 0.5%  
64 0.2% 0.2%  
65 0% 0.1%  
66 0% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0% 99.9%  
40 0.1% 99.9%  
41 0.1% 99.8%  
42 0.3% 99.7%  
43 0.3% 99.4%  
44 0.4% 99.1%  
45 0.9% 98.7%  
46 2% 98%  
47 3% 96%  
48 7% 92%  
49 5% 85%  
50 10% 81%  
51 3% 71% Last Result
52 18% 68% Median
53 18% 50%  
54 9% 32%  
55 7% 23%  
56 4% 16%  
57 5% 12%  
58 4% 7%  
59 1.2% 3%  
60 0.6% 2%  
61 0.3% 1.0%  
62 0.4% 0.7%  
63 0.2% 0.3%  
64 0% 0.1%  
65 0.1% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0% 100%  
39 0.1% 99.9%  
40 0.3% 99.8%  
41 1.1% 99.5%  
42 4% 98%  
43 1.5% 95%  
44 7% 93%  
45 6% 86%  
46 10% 81%  
47 9% 71%  
48 16% 62% Median
49 23% 46%  
50 11% 23%  
51 8% 12% Last Result
52 1.0% 5%  
53 1.3% 4%  
54 1.3% 3%  
55 0.3% 1.3%  
56 0.6% 1.0%  
57 0.1% 0.4%  
58 0.1% 0.3%  
59 0.1% 0.2%  
60 0% 0.1%  
61 0.1% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 99.9%  
34 0.1% 99.9%  
35 0.2% 99.8%  
36 0.2% 99.6%  
37 0.9% 99.4%  
38 1.1% 98.5%  
39 3% 97%  
40 3% 95%  
41 6% 91%  
42 8% 85%  
43 15% 77%  
44 6% 62%  
45 8% 56% Median
46 8% 48%  
47 20% 40%  
48 9% 21%  
49 5% 12%  
50 3% 7%  
51 2% 4%  
52 0.6% 2%  
53 0.3% 1.3%  
54 0.6% 1.0%  
55 0.2% 0.5%  
56 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
57 0.1% 0.2%  
58 0% 0.1%  
59 0% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  

Fine Gael

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 99.9%  
29 0.1% 99.9%  
30 0.2% 99.8%  
31 0.5% 99.6%  
32 0.8% 99.1%  
33 1.2% 98%  
34 3% 97%  
35 6% 94%  
36 5% 89%  
37 7% 83%  
38 14% 76%  
39 9% 62%  
40 15% 53% Median
41 15% 37%  
42 11% 22%  
43 7% 11%  
44 1.4% 4%  
45 0.6% 3%  
46 0.9% 2%  
47 0.4% 1.0%  
48 0.3% 0.6%  
49 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
50 0% 0.2%  
51 0.1% 0.1%  
52 0% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations