Opinion Poll by Survation for Sinn Féin, 27 January–2 February 2020
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Sinn Féin |
13.8% |
25.0% |
23.4–26.8% |
22.9–27.3% |
22.5–27.7% |
21.8–28.6% |
Fianna Fáil |
24.3% |
22.0% |
20.4–23.7% |
20.0–24.1% |
19.6–24.6% |
18.9–25.4% |
Fine Gael |
25.5% |
17.0% |
15.6–18.6% |
15.2–19.0% |
14.9–19.4% |
14.3–20.2% |
Independent |
15.9% |
10.1% |
9.1–11.4% |
8.7–11.8% |
8.5–12.1% |
8.0–12.7% |
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas |
2.7% |
9.0% |
8.0–10.3% |
7.7–10.6% |
7.5–10.9% |
7.0–11.5% |
Labour Party |
6.6% |
6.0% |
5.1–7.0% |
4.9–7.3% |
4.7–7.5% |
4.3–8.1% |
Solidarity–People Before Profit |
3.9% |
5.0% |
4.3–6.0% |
4.1–6.3% |
3.9–6.5% |
3.5–7.0% |
Social Democrats |
3.0% |
3.0% |
2.4–3.8% |
2.2–4.0% |
2.1–4.2% |
1.9–4.6% |
Independents 4 Change |
1.5% |
1.3% |
0.9–1.9% |
0.9–2.0% |
0.8–2.2% |
0.6–2.5% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Sinn Féin
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinn Féin page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
23 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
24 |
0% |
100% |
|
25 |
0% |
100% |
|
26 |
0% |
100% |
|
27 |
0% |
100% |
|
28 |
0% |
100% |
|
29 |
0% |
100% |
|
30 |
0% |
100% |
|
31 |
0% |
100% |
|
32 |
0% |
100% |
|
33 |
0% |
100% |
|
34 |
0% |
100% |
|
35 |
0% |
100% |
|
36 |
0% |
100% |
|
37 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
38 |
4% |
99.6% |
|
39 |
18% |
95% |
|
40 |
24% |
77% |
|
41 |
45% |
53% |
Median |
42 |
8% |
8% |
|
43 |
0% |
0% |
|
Fianna Fáil
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fianna Fáil page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
31 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
32 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
33 |
0.3% |
99.7% |
|
34 |
0.5% |
99.3% |
|
35 |
0.7% |
98.8% |
|
36 |
0.6% |
98% |
|
37 |
3% |
97% |
|
38 |
7% |
94% |
|
39 |
6% |
88% |
|
40 |
12% |
81% |
|
41 |
17% |
70% |
|
42 |
17% |
53% |
Median |
43 |
7% |
36% |
|
44 |
6% |
28% |
Last Result |
45 |
11% |
22% |
|
46 |
3% |
11% |
|
47 |
7% |
8% |
|
48 |
0.8% |
1.4% |
|
49 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
50 |
0.2% |
0.5% |
|
51 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
52 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
53 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
54 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
Fine Gael
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fine Gael page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
16 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
17 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
18 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
19 |
0.2% |
99.7% |
|
20 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
21 |
0.4% |
99.4% |
|
22 |
0.4% |
99.0% |
|
23 |
5% |
98.6% |
|
24 |
13% |
93% |
|
25 |
9% |
81% |
|
26 |
21% |
72% |
|
27 |
14% |
51% |
Median |
28 |
11% |
37% |
|
29 |
7% |
26% |
|
30 |
4% |
19% |
|
31 |
7% |
15% |
|
32 |
3% |
8% |
|
33 |
2% |
5% |
|
34 |
2% |
3% |
|
35 |
0.7% |
2% |
|
36 |
0.7% |
0.8% |
|
37 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
38 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
39 |
0% |
0% |
|
40 |
0% |
0% |
|
41 |
0% |
0% |
|
42 |
0% |
0% |
|
43 |
0% |
0% |
|
44 |
0% |
0% |
|
45 |
0% |
0% |
|
46 |
0% |
0% |
|
47 |
0% |
0% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Independent
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independent page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
0.6% |
100% |
|
5 |
2% |
99.4% |
|
6 |
2% |
98% |
|
7 |
2% |
95% |
|
8 |
13% |
93% |
|
9 |
14% |
80% |
|
10 |
12% |
65% |
|
11 |
7% |
53% |
Median |
12 |
12% |
46% |
|
13 |
10% |
34% |
|
14 |
7% |
24% |
|
15 |
6% |
17% |
|
16 |
3% |
11% |
|
17 |
9% |
9% |
|
18 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party/Comhaontas Glas page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
8 |
0.6% |
99.9% |
|
9 |
4% |
99.3% |
|
10 |
3% |
95% |
|
11 |
2% |
92% |
|
12 |
5% |
91% |
|
13 |
7% |
86% |
|
14 |
11% |
79% |
|
15 |
13% |
68% |
|
16 |
14% |
55% |
Median |
17 |
10% |
40% |
|
18 |
9% |
30% |
|
19 |
16% |
22% |
|
20 |
3% |
5% |
|
21 |
1.1% |
2% |
|
22 |
1.1% |
1.3% |
|
23 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
24 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
25 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
Labour Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
3 |
2% |
99.7% |
|
4 |
11% |
98% |
|
5 |
6% |
87% |
|
6 |
9% |
81% |
|
7 |
4% |
72% |
Last Result |
8 |
13% |
68% |
|
9 |
12% |
55% |
Median |
10 |
7% |
44% |
|
11 |
7% |
37% |
|
12 |
8% |
30% |
|
13 |
9% |
22% |
|
14 |
8% |
13% |
|
15 |
3% |
5% |
|
16 |
1.0% |
2% |
|
17 |
1.0% |
1.4% |
|
18 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
19 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
20 |
0% |
0% |
|
Solidarity–People Before Profit
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Solidarity–People Before Profit page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
3 |
1.4% |
100% |
|
4 |
2% |
98.6% |
|
5 |
11% |
97% |
|
6 |
12% |
86% |
Last Result |
7 |
14% |
74% |
|
8 |
12% |
60% |
Median |
9 |
18% |
48% |
|
10 |
30% |
30% |
|
11 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
12 |
0% |
0% |
|
Social Democrats
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Social Democrats page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
3 |
70% |
99.9% |
Last Result, Median |
4 |
21% |
30% |
|
5 |
2% |
9% |
|
6 |
5% |
7% |
|
7 |
1.1% |
2% |
|
8 |
0.4% |
0.9% |
|
9 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
Independents 4 Change
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents 4 Change page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
1.0% |
100% |
|
1 |
8% |
99.0% |
|
2 |
6% |
91% |
|
3 |
74% |
85% |
Median |
4 |
11% |
11% |
Last Result |
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Sinn Féin – Fianna Fáil |
67 |
82 |
72% |
79–86 |
77–88 |
76–88 |
72–89 |
Sinn Féin – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party – Solidarity–People Before Profit – Social Democrats |
41 |
77 |
19% |
72–82 |
69–83 |
68–84 |
66–86 |
Sinn Féin – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party – Solidarity–People Before Profit |
38 |
73 |
3% |
68–79 |
66–80 |
65–81 |
62–83 |
Fianna Fáil – Fine Gael |
93 |
68 |
0.4% |
64–74 |
62–76 |
61–78 |
59–80 |
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party – Social Democrats |
56 |
71 |
0.2% |
66–74 |
64–76 |
62–77 |
59–79 |
Sinn Féin – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party – Social Democrats |
35 |
68 |
0.1% |
64–74 |
61–75 |
60–77 |
58–78 |
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party |
53 |
67 |
0.1% |
62–71 |
60–73 |
58–74 |
56–76 |
Sinn Féin – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party |
32 |
65 |
0% |
60–71 |
58–72 |
56–73 |
54–75 |
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas |
46 |
58 |
0% |
53–61 |
51–62 |
51–63 |
48–65 |
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party – Social Democrats |
61 |
55 |
0% |
52–61 |
50–62 |
49–63 |
47–65 |
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party |
58 |
51 |
0% |
48–57 |
47–59 |
45–60 |
43–62 |
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party |
51 |
52 |
0% |
46–56 |
45–57 |
44–58 |
40–61 |
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas |
51 |
43 |
0% |
39–47 |
38–48 |
36–48 |
34–51 |
Fine Gael – Labour Party |
56 |
35 |
0% |
31–41 |
31–43 |
30–44 |
28–46 |
Fine Gael |
49 |
27 |
0% |
24–31 |
23–33 |
23–34 |
20–36 |
Sinn Féin – Fianna Fáil
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
67 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
68 |
0% |
100% |
|
69 |
0% |
100% |
|
70 |
0% |
100% |
|
71 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
72 |
0.3% |
99.7% |
|
73 |
0.4% |
99.4% |
|
74 |
0.5% |
99.0% |
|
75 |
0.5% |
98.5% |
|
76 |
2% |
98% |
|
77 |
2% |
96% |
|
78 |
3% |
95% |
|
79 |
7% |
92% |
|
80 |
14% |
85% |
|
81 |
13% |
72% |
Majority |
82 |
16% |
58% |
|
83 |
12% |
43% |
Median |
84 |
7% |
30% |
|
85 |
10% |
23% |
|
86 |
4% |
12% |
|
87 |
2% |
8% |
|
88 |
6% |
7% |
|
89 |
0.6% |
1.0% |
|
90 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
91 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
92 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
93 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
94 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
95 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sinn Féin – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party – Solidarity–People Before Profit – Social Democrats
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
41 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
42 |
0% |
100% |
|
43 |
0% |
100% |
|
44 |
0% |
100% |
|
45 |
0% |
100% |
|
46 |
0% |
100% |
|
47 |
0% |
100% |
|
48 |
0% |
100% |
|
49 |
0% |
100% |
|
50 |
0% |
100% |
|
51 |
0% |
100% |
|
52 |
0% |
100% |
|
53 |
0% |
100% |
|
54 |
0% |
100% |
|
55 |
0% |
100% |
|
56 |
0% |
100% |
|
57 |
0% |
100% |
|
58 |
0% |
100% |
|
59 |
0% |
100% |
|
60 |
0% |
100% |
|
61 |
0% |
100% |
|
62 |
0% |
100% |
|
63 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
64 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
65 |
0.2% |
99.8% |
|
66 |
0.9% |
99.6% |
|
67 |
0.7% |
98.7% |
|
68 |
2% |
98% |
|
69 |
1.4% |
96% |
|
70 |
1.5% |
95% |
|
71 |
2% |
93% |
|
72 |
11% |
91% |
|
73 |
4% |
80% |
|
74 |
8% |
76% |
|
75 |
6% |
67% |
|
76 |
8% |
62% |
|
77 |
11% |
53% |
Median |
78 |
8% |
42% |
|
79 |
6% |
34% |
|
80 |
9% |
28% |
|
81 |
6% |
19% |
Majority |
82 |
7% |
13% |
|
83 |
3% |
6% |
|
84 |
1.4% |
4% |
|
85 |
1.2% |
2% |
|
86 |
0.5% |
0.8% |
|
87 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
88 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
89 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
90 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sinn Féin – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party – Solidarity–People Before Profit
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
38 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
39 |
0% |
100% |
|
40 |
0% |
100% |
|
41 |
0% |
100% |
|
42 |
0% |
100% |
|
43 |
0% |
100% |
|
44 |
0% |
100% |
|
45 |
0% |
100% |
|
46 |
0% |
100% |
|
47 |
0% |
100% |
|
48 |
0% |
100% |
|
49 |
0% |
100% |
|
50 |
0% |
100% |
|
51 |
0% |
100% |
|
52 |
0% |
100% |
|
53 |
0% |
100% |
|
54 |
0% |
100% |
|
55 |
0% |
100% |
|
56 |
0% |
100% |
|
57 |
0% |
100% |
|
58 |
0% |
100% |
|
59 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
60 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
61 |
0.2% |
99.8% |
|
62 |
0.3% |
99.6% |
|
63 |
1.0% |
99.3% |
|
64 |
0.7% |
98% |
|
65 |
2% |
98% |
|
66 |
2% |
95% |
|
67 |
1.3% |
94% |
|
68 |
2% |
92% |
|
69 |
13% |
90% |
|
70 |
7% |
77% |
|
71 |
7% |
70% |
|
72 |
6% |
63% |
|
73 |
9% |
56% |
|
74 |
8% |
47% |
Median |
75 |
8% |
38% |
|
76 |
9% |
31% |
|
77 |
4% |
22% |
|
78 |
6% |
18% |
|
79 |
7% |
12% |
|
80 |
3% |
5% |
|
81 |
0.9% |
3% |
Majority |
82 |
1.0% |
2% |
|
83 |
0.5% |
0.7% |
|
84 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
85 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
86 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
87 |
0% |
0% |
|
Fianna Fáil – Fine Gael
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
56 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
57 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
58 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
59 |
0.4% |
99.7% |
|
60 |
0.6% |
99.2% |
|
61 |
2% |
98.7% |
|
62 |
2% |
97% |
|
63 |
3% |
95% |
|
64 |
6% |
91% |
|
65 |
8% |
85% |
|
66 |
8% |
77% |
|
67 |
6% |
69% |
|
68 |
14% |
64% |
|
69 |
9% |
50% |
Median |
70 |
4% |
41% |
|
71 |
4% |
36% |
|
72 |
10% |
32% |
|
73 |
9% |
23% |
|
74 |
5% |
14% |
|
75 |
3% |
9% |
|
76 |
2% |
6% |
|
77 |
0.9% |
4% |
|
78 |
1.4% |
3% |
|
79 |
0.6% |
2% |
|
80 |
0.5% |
0.9% |
|
81 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
Majority |
82 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
83 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
84 |
0% |
0% |
|
85 |
0% |
0% |
|
86 |
0% |
0% |
|
87 |
0% |
0% |
|
88 |
0% |
0% |
|
89 |
0% |
0% |
|
90 |
0% |
0% |
|
91 |
0% |
0% |
|
92 |
0% |
0% |
|
93 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party – Social Democrats
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
56 |
0.1% |
100% |
Last Result |
57 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
58 |
0.2% |
99.8% |
|
59 |
0.2% |
99.6% |
|
60 |
1.1% |
99.4% |
|
61 |
0.7% |
98% |
|
62 |
1.1% |
98% |
|
63 |
1.4% |
97% |
|
64 |
2% |
95% |
|
65 |
3% |
93% |
|
66 |
6% |
90% |
|
67 |
8% |
84% |
|
68 |
4% |
76% |
|
69 |
8% |
72% |
|
70 |
13% |
64% |
Median |
71 |
16% |
51% |
|
72 |
6% |
35% |
|
73 |
17% |
29% |
|
74 |
3% |
12% |
|
75 |
2% |
9% |
|
76 |
3% |
7% |
|
77 |
2% |
4% |
|
78 |
0.7% |
2% |
|
79 |
0.6% |
1.0% |
|
80 |
0.2% |
0.4% |
|
81 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
Majority |
82 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
83 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
84 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
85 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sinn Féin – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party – Social Democrats
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
35 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
36 |
0% |
100% |
|
37 |
0% |
100% |
|
38 |
0% |
100% |
|
39 |
0% |
100% |
|
40 |
0% |
100% |
|
41 |
0% |
100% |
|
42 |
0% |
100% |
|
43 |
0% |
100% |
|
44 |
0% |
100% |
|
45 |
0% |
100% |
|
46 |
0% |
100% |
|
47 |
0% |
100% |
|
48 |
0% |
100% |
|
49 |
0% |
100% |
|
50 |
0% |
100% |
|
51 |
0% |
100% |
|
52 |
0% |
100% |
|
53 |
0% |
100% |
|
54 |
0% |
100% |
|
55 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
56 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
57 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
58 |
0.9% |
99.7% |
|
59 |
1.4% |
98.9% |
|
60 |
2% |
98% |
|
61 |
1.5% |
96% |
|
62 |
3% |
95% |
|
63 |
2% |
92% |
|
64 |
2% |
90% |
|
65 |
8% |
88% |
|
66 |
12% |
80% |
|
67 |
10% |
68% |
|
68 |
10% |
59% |
|
69 |
8% |
49% |
Median |
70 |
7% |
40% |
|
71 |
5% |
34% |
|
72 |
9% |
28% |
|
73 |
7% |
20% |
|
74 |
4% |
13% |
|
75 |
5% |
9% |
|
76 |
2% |
4% |
|
77 |
1.5% |
3% |
|
78 |
0.8% |
1.1% |
|
79 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
80 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
81 |
0% |
0.1% |
Majority |
82 |
0% |
0% |
|
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
52 |
0% |
100% |
|
53 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
Last Result |
54 |
0.2% |
99.8% |
|
55 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
56 |
0.3% |
99.5% |
|
57 |
1.4% |
99.2% |
|
58 |
0.6% |
98% |
|
59 |
1.1% |
97% |
|
60 |
2% |
96% |
|
61 |
2% |
94% |
|
62 |
4% |
92% |
|
63 |
8% |
88% |
|
64 |
6% |
79% |
|
65 |
9% |
74% |
|
66 |
10% |
65% |
|
67 |
9% |
55% |
Median |
68 |
13% |
46% |
|
69 |
9% |
33% |
|
70 |
14% |
24% |
|
71 |
3% |
10% |
|
72 |
2% |
7% |
|
73 |
2% |
5% |
|
74 |
1.5% |
3% |
|
75 |
0.7% |
1.5% |
|
76 |
0.4% |
0.7% |
|
77 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
78 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
79 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
80 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
81 |
0% |
0.1% |
Majority |
82 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sinn Féin – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
32 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
33 |
0% |
100% |
|
34 |
0% |
100% |
|
35 |
0% |
100% |
|
36 |
0% |
100% |
|
37 |
0% |
100% |
|
38 |
0% |
100% |
|
39 |
0% |
100% |
|
40 |
0% |
100% |
|
41 |
0% |
100% |
|
42 |
0% |
100% |
|
43 |
0% |
100% |
|
44 |
0% |
100% |
|
45 |
0% |
100% |
|
46 |
0% |
100% |
|
47 |
0% |
100% |
|
48 |
0% |
100% |
|
49 |
0% |
100% |
|
50 |
0% |
100% |
|
51 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
52 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
53 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
54 |
0.4% |
99.8% |
|
55 |
1.3% |
99.4% |
|
56 |
2% |
98% |
|
57 |
1.3% |
97% |
|
58 |
1.4% |
95% |
|
59 |
3% |
94% |
|
60 |
2% |
91% |
|
61 |
5% |
89% |
|
62 |
11% |
84% |
|
63 |
10% |
73% |
|
64 |
10% |
63% |
|
65 |
6% |
53% |
|
66 |
11% |
47% |
Median |
67 |
3% |
36% |
|
68 |
6% |
32% |
|
69 |
10% |
26% |
|
70 |
6% |
16% |
|
71 |
4% |
11% |
|
72 |
3% |
6% |
|
73 |
1.3% |
3% |
|
74 |
1.3% |
2% |
|
75 |
0.7% |
0.8% |
|
76 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
77 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
78 |
0% |
0% |
|
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
45 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
46 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
Last Result |
47 |
0.2% |
99.7% |
|
48 |
0.4% |
99.6% |
|
49 |
0.5% |
99.2% |
|
50 |
0.7% |
98.6% |
|
51 |
3% |
98% |
|
52 |
3% |
95% |
|
53 |
5% |
92% |
|
54 |
5% |
87% |
|
55 |
8% |
82% |
|
56 |
6% |
74% |
|
57 |
12% |
68% |
|
58 |
14% |
56% |
Median |
59 |
12% |
42% |
|
60 |
14% |
30% |
|
61 |
8% |
15% |
|
62 |
3% |
7% |
|
63 |
2% |
4% |
|
64 |
1.4% |
2% |
|
65 |
0.4% |
0.7% |
|
66 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
67 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
68 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
69 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
70 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
71 |
0% |
0% |
|
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party – Social Democrats
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
43 |
0% |
100% |
|
44 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
45 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
46 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
47 |
0.7% |
99.6% |
|
48 |
0.8% |
99.0% |
|
49 |
3% |
98% |
|
50 |
2% |
96% |
|
51 |
3% |
93% |
|
52 |
10% |
90% |
|
53 |
15% |
80% |
|
54 |
6% |
65% |
|
55 |
20% |
59% |
Median |
56 |
7% |
39% |
|
57 |
6% |
32% |
|
58 |
6% |
26% |
|
59 |
3% |
20% |
|
60 |
7% |
18% |
|
61 |
2% |
11% |
Last Result |
62 |
6% |
9% |
|
63 |
2% |
3% |
|
64 |
0.6% |
1.3% |
|
65 |
0.4% |
0.7% |
|
66 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
67 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
68 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
69 |
0% |
0% |
|
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
39 |
0% |
100% |
|
40 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
41 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
42 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
43 |
0.4% |
99.7% |
|
44 |
0.5% |
99.2% |
|
45 |
1.4% |
98.7% |
|
46 |
2% |
97% |
|
47 |
3% |
95% |
|
48 |
4% |
93% |
|
49 |
17% |
89% |
|
50 |
13% |
72% |
|
51 |
9% |
59% |
|
52 |
16% |
50% |
Median |
53 |
4% |
34% |
|
54 |
7% |
31% |
|
55 |
6% |
23% |
|
56 |
3% |
18% |
|
57 |
6% |
15% |
|
58 |
3% |
9% |
Last Result |
59 |
3% |
6% |
|
60 |
2% |
3% |
|
61 |
0.3% |
0.9% |
|
62 |
0.3% |
0.6% |
|
63 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
64 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
65 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
66 |
0% |
0% |
|
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
37 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
38 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
39 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
40 |
0.3% |
99.8% |
|
41 |
0.2% |
99.5% |
|
42 |
0.6% |
99.3% |
|
43 |
0.5% |
98.7% |
|
44 |
2% |
98% |
|
45 |
6% |
96% |
|
46 |
6% |
91% |
|
47 |
8% |
85% |
|
48 |
6% |
77% |
|
49 |
5% |
71% |
|
50 |
7% |
65% |
|
51 |
8% |
58% |
Last Result, Median |
52 |
8% |
50% |
|
53 |
15% |
42% |
|
54 |
9% |
27% |
|
55 |
6% |
18% |
|
56 |
7% |
13% |
|
57 |
3% |
6% |
|
58 |
1.3% |
3% |
|
59 |
0.6% |
2% |
|
60 |
1.0% |
2% |
|
61 |
0.3% |
0.6% |
|
62 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
63 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
64 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
65 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
66 |
0% |
0% |
|
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
30 |
0% |
100% |
|
31 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
32 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
33 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
34 |
0.2% |
99.7% |
|
35 |
1.1% |
99.5% |
|
36 |
1.1% |
98% |
|
37 |
2% |
97% |
|
38 |
4% |
96% |
|
39 |
8% |
92% |
|
40 |
11% |
84% |
|
41 |
9% |
72% |
|
42 |
14% |
64% |
|
43 |
8% |
50% |
Median |
44 |
9% |
42% |
|
45 |
12% |
33% |
|
46 |
7% |
22% |
|
47 |
9% |
15% |
|
48 |
4% |
6% |
|
49 |
1.3% |
2% |
|
50 |
0.7% |
1.2% |
|
51 |
0.2% |
0.5% |
Last Result |
52 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
53 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
54 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
Fine Gael – Labour Party
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
24 |
0% |
100% |
|
25 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
26 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
27 |
0.2% |
99.7% |
|
28 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
29 |
1.3% |
99.4% |
|
30 |
2% |
98% |
|
31 |
7% |
96% |
|
32 |
3% |
89% |
|
33 |
9% |
87% |
|
34 |
9% |
78% |
|
35 |
23% |
69% |
|
36 |
7% |
45% |
Median |
37 |
5% |
38% |
|
38 |
5% |
33% |
|
39 |
5% |
28% |
|
40 |
6% |
23% |
|
41 |
8% |
17% |
|
42 |
2% |
9% |
|
43 |
3% |
8% |
|
44 |
2% |
4% |
|
45 |
1.1% |
2% |
|
46 |
0.6% |
1.1% |
|
47 |
0.2% |
0.5% |
|
48 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
49 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
50 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
51 |
0% |
0% |
|
52 |
0% |
0% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Fine Gael
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
16 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
17 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
18 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
19 |
0.2% |
99.7% |
|
20 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
21 |
0.4% |
99.4% |
|
22 |
0.4% |
99.0% |
|
23 |
5% |
98.6% |
|
24 |
13% |
93% |
|
25 |
9% |
81% |
|
26 |
21% |
72% |
|
27 |
14% |
51% |
Median |
28 |
11% |
37% |
|
29 |
7% |
26% |
|
30 |
4% |
19% |
|
31 |
7% |
15% |
|
32 |
3% |
8% |
|
33 |
2% |
5% |
|
34 |
2% |
3% |
|
35 |
0.7% |
2% |
|
36 |
0.7% |
0.8% |
|
37 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
38 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
39 |
0% |
0% |
|
40 |
0% |
0% |
|
41 |
0% |
0% |
|
42 |
0% |
0% |
|
43 |
0% |
0% |
|
44 |
0% |
0% |
|
45 |
0% |
0% |
|
46 |
0% |
0% |
|
47 |
0% |
0% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Survation
- Commissioner(s): Sinn Féin
- Fieldwork period: 27 January–2 February 2020
Calculations
- Sample size: 1074
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 2.44%