Opinion Poll by Survation for Sinn Féin, 27 January–2 February 2020
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
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Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Sinn Féin |
13.8% |
25.0% |
23.4–26.8% |
22.9–27.3% |
22.5–27.7% |
21.8–28.6% |
Fianna Fáil |
24.3% |
22.0% |
20.4–23.7% |
20.0–24.1% |
19.6–24.6% |
18.9–25.4% |
Fine Gael |
25.5% |
17.0% |
15.6–18.6% |
15.2–19.0% |
14.9–19.4% |
14.3–20.2% |
Independent |
15.9% |
10.1% |
9.1–11.4% |
8.7–11.8% |
8.5–12.1% |
8.0–12.7% |
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas |
2.7% |
9.0% |
8.0–10.3% |
7.7–10.6% |
7.5–10.9% |
7.0–11.5% |
Labour Party |
6.6% |
6.0% |
5.1–7.0% |
4.9–7.3% |
4.7–7.5% |
4.3–8.1% |
Solidarity–People Before Profit |
3.9% |
5.0% |
4.3–6.0% |
4.1–6.3% |
3.9–6.5% |
3.5–7.0% |
Social Democrats |
3.0% |
3.0% |
2.4–3.8% |
2.2–4.0% |
2.1–4.2% |
1.9–4.6% |
Independents 4 Change |
1.5% |
1.3% |
0.9–1.9% |
0.9–2.0% |
0.8–2.2% |
0.6–2.5% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
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
Confidence Intervals
Sinn Féin
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinn Féin page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
23 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
24 |
0% |
100% |
|
25 |
0% |
100% |
|
26 |
0% |
100% |
|
27 |
0% |
100% |
|
28 |
0% |
100% |
|
29 |
0% |
100% |
|
30 |
0% |
100% |
|
31 |
0% |
100% |
|
32 |
0% |
100% |
|
33 |
0% |
100% |
|
34 |
0% |
100% |
|
35 |
0% |
100% |
|
36 |
0% |
100% |
|
37 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
38 |
4% |
99.6% |
|
39 |
18% |
95% |
|
40 |
24% |
77% |
|
41 |
45% |
53% |
Median |
42 |
8% |
8% |
|
43 |
0% |
0% |
|
Fianna Fáil
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fianna Fáil page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
31 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
32 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
33 |
0.3% |
99.7% |
|
34 |
0.5% |
99.3% |
|
35 |
0.7% |
98.8% |
|
36 |
0.6% |
98% |
|
37 |
3% |
97% |
|
38 |
7% |
94% |
|
39 |
6% |
88% |
|
40 |
12% |
81% |
|
41 |
17% |
70% |
|
42 |
17% |
53% |
Median |
43 |
7% |
36% |
|
44 |
6% |
28% |
Last Result |
45 |
11% |
22% |
|
46 |
3% |
11% |
|
47 |
7% |
8% |
|
48 |
0.8% |
1.4% |
|
49 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
50 |
0.2% |
0.5% |
|
51 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
52 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
53 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
54 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
Fine Gael
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fine Gael page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
16 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
17 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
18 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
19 |
0.2% |
99.7% |
|
20 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
21 |
0.4% |
99.4% |
|
22 |
0.4% |
99.0% |
|
23 |
5% |
98.6% |
|
24 |
13% |
93% |
|
25 |
9% |
81% |
|
26 |
21% |
72% |
|
27 |
14% |
51% |
Median |
28 |
11% |
37% |
|
29 |
7% |
26% |
|
30 |
4% |
19% |
|
31 |
7% |
15% |
|
32 |
3% |
8% |
|
33 |
2% |
5% |
|
34 |
2% |
3% |
|
35 |
0.7% |
2% |
|
36 |
0.7% |
0.8% |
|
37 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
38 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
39 |
0% |
0% |
|
40 |
0% |
0% |
|
41 |
0% |
0% |
|
42 |
0% |
0% |
|
43 |
0% |
0% |
|
44 |
0% |
0% |
|
45 |
0% |
0% |
|
46 |
0% |
0% |
|
47 |
0% |
0% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Independent
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independent page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
0.6% |
100% |
|
5 |
2% |
99.4% |
|
6 |
2% |
98% |
|
7 |
2% |
95% |
|
8 |
13% |
93% |
|
9 |
14% |
80% |
|
10 |
12% |
65% |
|
11 |
7% |
53% |
Median |
12 |
12% |
46% |
|
13 |
10% |
34% |
|
14 |
7% |
24% |
|
15 |
6% |
17% |
|
16 |
3% |
11% |
|
17 |
9% |
9% |
|
18 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party/Comhaontas Glas page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
8 |
0.6% |
99.9% |
|
9 |
4% |
99.3% |
|
10 |
3% |
95% |
|
11 |
2% |
92% |
|
12 |
5% |
91% |
|
13 |
7% |
86% |
|
14 |
11% |
79% |
|
15 |
13% |
68% |
|
16 |
14% |
55% |
Median |
17 |
10% |
40% |
|
18 |
9% |
30% |
|
19 |
16% |
22% |
|
20 |
3% |
5% |
|
21 |
1.1% |
2% |
|
22 |
1.1% |
1.3% |
|
23 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
24 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
25 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
Labour Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
3 |
2% |
99.7% |
|
4 |
11% |
98% |
|
5 |
6% |
87% |
|
6 |
9% |
81% |
|
7 |
4% |
72% |
Last Result |
8 |
13% |
68% |
|
9 |
12% |
55% |
Median |
10 |
7% |
44% |
|
11 |
7% |
37% |
|
12 |
8% |
30% |
|
13 |
9% |
22% |
|
14 |
8% |
13% |
|
15 |
3% |
5% |
|
16 |
1.0% |
2% |
|
17 |
1.0% |
1.4% |
|
18 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
19 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
20 |
0% |
0% |
|
Solidarity–People Before Profit
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Solidarity–People Before Profit page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
3 |
1.4% |
100% |
|
4 |
2% |
98.6% |
|
5 |
11% |
97% |
|
6 |
12% |
86% |
Last Result |
7 |
14% |
74% |
|
8 |
12% |
60% |
Median |
9 |
18% |
48% |
|
10 |
30% |
30% |
|
11 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
12 |
0% |
0% |
|
Social Democrats
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Social Democrats page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
3 |
70% |
99.9% |
Last Result, Median |
4 |
21% |
30% |
|
5 |
2% |
9% |
|
6 |
5% |
7% |
|
7 |
1.1% |
2% |
|
8 |
0.4% |
0.9% |
|
9 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
Independents 4 Change
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents 4 Change page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
1.0% |
100% |
|
1 |
8% |
99.0% |
|
2 |
6% |
91% |
|
3 |
74% |
85% |
Median |
4 |
11% |
11% |
Last Result |
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Coalitions
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Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Sinn Féin – Fianna Fáil |
67 |
82 |
72% |
79–86 |
77–88 |
76–88 |
72–89 |
Sinn Féin – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party – Solidarity–People Before Profit – Social Democrats |
41 |
77 |
19% |
72–82 |
69–83 |
68–84 |
66–86 |
Sinn Féin – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party – Solidarity–People Before Profit |
38 |
73 |
3% |
68–79 |
66–80 |
65–81 |
62–83 |
Fianna Fáil – Fine Gael |
93 |
68 |
0.4% |
64–74 |
62–76 |
61–78 |
59–80 |
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party – Social Democrats |
56 |
71 |
0.2% |
66–74 |
64–76 |
62–77 |
59–79 |
Sinn Féin – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party – Social Democrats |
35 |
68 |
0.1% |
64–74 |
61–75 |
60–77 |
58–78 |
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party |
53 |
67 |
0.1% |
62–71 |
60–73 |
58–74 |
56–76 |
Sinn Féin – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party |
32 |
65 |
0% |
60–71 |
58–72 |
56–73 |
54–75 |
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas |
46 |
58 |
0% |
53–61 |
51–62 |
51–63 |
48–65 |
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party – Social Democrats |
61 |
55 |
0% |
52–61 |
50–62 |
49–63 |
47–65 |
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party |
58 |
51 |
0% |
48–57 |
47–59 |
45–60 |
43–62 |
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party |
51 |
52 |
0% |
46–56 |
45–57 |
44–58 |
40–61 |
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas |
51 |
43 |
0% |
39–47 |
38–48 |
36–48 |
34–51 |
Fine Gael – Labour Party |
56 |
35 |
0% |
31–41 |
31–43 |
30–44 |
28–46 |
Fine Gael |
49 |
27 |
0% |
24–31 |
23–33 |
23–34 |
20–36 |
Sinn Féin – Fianna Fáil

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
67 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
68 |
0% |
100% |
|
69 |
0% |
100% |
|
70 |
0% |
100% |
|
71 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
72 |
0.3% |
99.7% |
|
73 |
0.4% |
99.4% |
|
74 |
0.5% |
99.0% |
|
75 |
0.5% |
98.5% |
|
76 |
2% |
98% |
|
77 |
2% |
96% |
|
78 |
3% |
95% |
|
79 |
7% |
92% |
|
80 |
14% |
85% |
|
81 |
13% |
72% |
Majority |
82 |
16% |
58% |
|
83 |
12% |
43% |
Median |
84 |
7% |
30% |
|
85 |
10% |
23% |
|
86 |
4% |
12% |
|
87 |
2% |
8% |
|
88 |
6% |
7% |
|
89 |
0.6% |
1.0% |
|
90 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
91 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
92 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
93 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
94 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
95 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sinn Féin – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party – Solidarity–People Before Profit – Social Democrats

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
41 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
42 |
0% |
100% |
|
43 |
0% |
100% |
|
44 |
0% |
100% |
|
45 |
0% |
100% |
|
46 |
0% |
100% |
|
47 |
0% |
100% |
|
48 |
0% |
100% |
|
49 |
0% |
100% |
|
50 |
0% |
100% |
|
51 |
0% |
100% |
|
52 |
0% |
100% |
|
53 |
0% |
100% |
|
54 |
0% |
100% |
|
55 |
0% |
100% |
|
56 |
0% |
100% |
|
57 |
0% |
100% |
|
58 |
0% |
100% |
|
59 |
0% |
100% |
|
60 |
0% |
100% |
|
61 |
0% |
100% |
|
62 |
0% |
100% |
|
63 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
64 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
65 |
0.2% |
99.8% |
|
66 |
0.9% |
99.6% |
|
67 |
0.7% |
98.7% |
|
68 |
2% |
98% |
|
69 |
1.4% |
96% |
|
70 |
1.5% |
95% |
|
71 |
2% |
93% |
|
72 |
11% |
91% |
|
73 |
4% |
80% |
|
74 |
8% |
76% |
|
75 |
6% |
67% |
|
76 |
8% |
62% |
|
77 |
11% |
53% |
Median |
78 |
8% |
42% |
|
79 |
6% |
34% |
|
80 |
9% |
28% |
|
81 |
6% |
19% |
Majority |
82 |
7% |
13% |
|
83 |
3% |
6% |
|
84 |
1.4% |
4% |
|
85 |
1.2% |
2% |
|
86 |
0.5% |
0.8% |
|
87 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
88 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
89 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
90 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sinn Féin – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party – Solidarity–People Before Profit

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
38 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
39 |
0% |
100% |
|
40 |
0% |
100% |
|
41 |
0% |
100% |
|
42 |
0% |
100% |
|
43 |
0% |
100% |
|
44 |
0% |
100% |
|
45 |
0% |
100% |
|
46 |
0% |
100% |
|
47 |
0% |
100% |
|
48 |
0% |
100% |
|
49 |
0% |
100% |
|
50 |
0% |
100% |
|
51 |
0% |
100% |
|
52 |
0% |
100% |
|
53 |
0% |
100% |
|
54 |
0% |
100% |
|
55 |
0% |
100% |
|
56 |
0% |
100% |
|
57 |
0% |
100% |
|
58 |
0% |
100% |
|
59 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
60 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
61 |
0.2% |
99.8% |
|
62 |
0.3% |
99.6% |
|
63 |
1.0% |
99.3% |
|
64 |
0.7% |
98% |
|
65 |
2% |
98% |
|
66 |
2% |
95% |
|
67 |
1.3% |
94% |
|
68 |
2% |
92% |
|
69 |
13% |
90% |
|
70 |
7% |
77% |
|
71 |
7% |
70% |
|
72 |
6% |
63% |
|
73 |
9% |
56% |
|
74 |
8% |
47% |
Median |
75 |
8% |
38% |
|
76 |
9% |
31% |
|
77 |
4% |
22% |
|
78 |
6% |
18% |
|
79 |
7% |
12% |
|
80 |
3% |
5% |
|
81 |
0.9% |
3% |
Majority |
82 |
1.0% |
2% |
|
83 |
0.5% |
0.7% |
|
84 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
85 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
86 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
87 |
0% |
0% |
|
Fianna Fáil – Fine Gael

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
56 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
57 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
58 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
59 |
0.4% |
99.7% |
|
60 |
0.6% |
99.2% |
|
61 |
2% |
98.7% |
|
62 |
2% |
97% |
|
63 |
3% |
95% |
|
64 |
6% |
91% |
|
65 |
8% |
85% |
|
66 |
8% |
77% |
|
67 |
6% |
69% |
|
68 |
14% |
64% |
|
69 |
9% |
50% |
Median |
70 |
4% |
41% |
|
71 |
4% |
36% |
|
72 |
10% |
32% |
|
73 |
9% |
23% |
|
74 |
5% |
14% |
|
75 |
3% |
9% |
|
76 |
2% |
6% |
|
77 |
0.9% |
4% |
|
78 |
1.4% |
3% |
|
79 |
0.6% |
2% |
|
80 |
0.5% |
0.9% |
|
81 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
Majority |
82 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
83 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
84 |
0% |
0% |
|
85 |
0% |
0% |
|
86 |
0% |
0% |
|
87 |
0% |
0% |
|
88 |
0% |
0% |
|
89 |
0% |
0% |
|
90 |
0% |
0% |
|
91 |
0% |
0% |
|
92 |
0% |
0% |
|
93 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party – Social Democrats

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
56 |
0.1% |
100% |
Last Result |
57 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
58 |
0.2% |
99.8% |
|
59 |
0.2% |
99.6% |
|
60 |
1.1% |
99.4% |
|
61 |
0.7% |
98% |
|
62 |
1.1% |
98% |
|
63 |
1.4% |
97% |
|
64 |
2% |
95% |
|
65 |
3% |
93% |
|
66 |
6% |
90% |
|
67 |
8% |
84% |
|
68 |
4% |
76% |
|
69 |
8% |
72% |
|
70 |
13% |
64% |
Median |
71 |
16% |
51% |
|
72 |
6% |
35% |
|
73 |
17% |
29% |
|
74 |
3% |
12% |
|
75 |
2% |
9% |
|
76 |
3% |
7% |
|
77 |
2% |
4% |
|
78 |
0.7% |
2% |
|
79 |
0.6% |
1.0% |
|
80 |
0.2% |
0.4% |
|
81 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
Majority |
82 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
83 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
84 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
85 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sinn Féin – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party – Social Democrats

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
35 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
36 |
0% |
100% |
|
37 |
0% |
100% |
|
38 |
0% |
100% |
|
39 |
0% |
100% |
|
40 |
0% |
100% |
|
41 |
0% |
100% |
|
42 |
0% |
100% |
|
43 |
0% |
100% |
|
44 |
0% |
100% |
|
45 |
0% |
100% |
|
46 |
0% |
100% |
|
47 |
0% |
100% |
|
48 |
0% |
100% |
|
49 |
0% |
100% |
|
50 |
0% |
100% |
|
51 |
0% |
100% |
|
52 |
0% |
100% |
|
53 |
0% |
100% |
|
54 |
0% |
100% |
|
55 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
56 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
57 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
58 |
0.9% |
99.7% |
|
59 |
1.4% |
98.9% |
|
60 |
2% |
98% |
|
61 |
1.5% |
96% |
|
62 |
3% |
95% |
|
63 |
2% |
92% |
|
64 |
2% |
90% |
|
65 |
8% |
88% |
|
66 |
12% |
80% |
|
67 |
10% |
68% |
|
68 |
10% |
59% |
|
69 |
8% |
49% |
Median |
70 |
7% |
40% |
|
71 |
5% |
34% |
|
72 |
9% |
28% |
|
73 |
7% |
20% |
|
74 |
4% |
13% |
|
75 |
5% |
9% |
|
76 |
2% |
4% |
|
77 |
1.5% |
3% |
|
78 |
0.8% |
1.1% |
|
79 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
80 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
81 |
0% |
0.1% |
Majority |
82 |
0% |
0% |
|
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
52 |
0% |
100% |
|
53 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
Last Result |
54 |
0.2% |
99.8% |
|
55 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
56 |
0.3% |
99.5% |
|
57 |
1.4% |
99.2% |
|
58 |
0.6% |
98% |
|
59 |
1.1% |
97% |
|
60 |
2% |
96% |
|
61 |
2% |
94% |
|
62 |
4% |
92% |
|
63 |
8% |
88% |
|
64 |
6% |
79% |
|
65 |
9% |
74% |
|
66 |
10% |
65% |
|
67 |
9% |
55% |
Median |
68 |
13% |
46% |
|
69 |
9% |
33% |
|
70 |
14% |
24% |
|
71 |
3% |
10% |
|
72 |
2% |
7% |
|
73 |
2% |
5% |
|
74 |
1.5% |
3% |
|
75 |
0.7% |
1.5% |
|
76 |
0.4% |
0.7% |
|
77 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
78 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
79 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
80 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
81 |
0% |
0.1% |
Majority |
82 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sinn Féin – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
32 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
33 |
0% |
100% |
|
34 |
0% |
100% |
|
35 |
0% |
100% |
|
36 |
0% |
100% |
|
37 |
0% |
100% |
|
38 |
0% |
100% |
|
39 |
0% |
100% |
|
40 |
0% |
100% |
|
41 |
0% |
100% |
|
42 |
0% |
100% |
|
43 |
0% |
100% |
|
44 |
0% |
100% |
|
45 |
0% |
100% |
|
46 |
0% |
100% |
|
47 |
0% |
100% |
|
48 |
0% |
100% |
|
49 |
0% |
100% |
|
50 |
0% |
100% |
|
51 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
52 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
53 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
54 |
0.4% |
99.8% |
|
55 |
1.3% |
99.4% |
|
56 |
2% |
98% |
|
57 |
1.3% |
97% |
|
58 |
1.4% |
95% |
|
59 |
3% |
94% |
|
60 |
2% |
91% |
|
61 |
5% |
89% |
|
62 |
11% |
84% |
|
63 |
10% |
73% |
|
64 |
10% |
63% |
|
65 |
6% |
53% |
|
66 |
11% |
47% |
Median |
67 |
3% |
36% |
|
68 |
6% |
32% |
|
69 |
10% |
26% |
|
70 |
6% |
16% |
|
71 |
4% |
11% |
|
72 |
3% |
6% |
|
73 |
1.3% |
3% |
|
74 |
1.3% |
2% |
|
75 |
0.7% |
0.8% |
|
76 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
77 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
78 |
0% |
0% |
|
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
45 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
46 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
Last Result |
47 |
0.2% |
99.7% |
|
48 |
0.4% |
99.6% |
|
49 |
0.5% |
99.2% |
|
50 |
0.7% |
98.6% |
|
51 |
3% |
98% |
|
52 |
3% |
95% |
|
53 |
5% |
92% |
|
54 |
5% |
87% |
|
55 |
8% |
82% |
|
56 |
6% |
74% |
|
57 |
12% |
68% |
|
58 |
14% |
56% |
Median |
59 |
12% |
42% |
|
60 |
14% |
30% |
|
61 |
8% |
15% |
|
62 |
3% |
7% |
|
63 |
2% |
4% |
|
64 |
1.4% |
2% |
|
65 |
0.4% |
0.7% |
|
66 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
67 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
68 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
69 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
70 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
71 |
0% |
0% |
|
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party – Social Democrats

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
43 |
0% |
100% |
|
44 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
45 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
46 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
47 |
0.7% |
99.6% |
|
48 |
0.8% |
99.0% |
|
49 |
3% |
98% |
|
50 |
2% |
96% |
|
51 |
3% |
93% |
|
52 |
10% |
90% |
|
53 |
15% |
80% |
|
54 |
6% |
65% |
|
55 |
20% |
59% |
Median |
56 |
7% |
39% |
|
57 |
6% |
32% |
|
58 |
6% |
26% |
|
59 |
3% |
20% |
|
60 |
7% |
18% |
|
61 |
2% |
11% |
Last Result |
62 |
6% |
9% |
|
63 |
2% |
3% |
|
64 |
0.6% |
1.3% |
|
65 |
0.4% |
0.7% |
|
66 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
67 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
68 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
69 |
0% |
0% |
|
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Labour Party

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
39 |
0% |
100% |
|
40 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
41 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
42 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
43 |
0.4% |
99.7% |
|
44 |
0.5% |
99.2% |
|
45 |
1.4% |
98.7% |
|
46 |
2% |
97% |
|
47 |
3% |
95% |
|
48 |
4% |
93% |
|
49 |
17% |
89% |
|
50 |
13% |
72% |
|
51 |
9% |
59% |
|
52 |
16% |
50% |
Median |
53 |
4% |
34% |
|
54 |
7% |
31% |
|
55 |
6% |
23% |
|
56 |
3% |
18% |
|
57 |
6% |
15% |
|
58 |
3% |
9% |
Last Result |
59 |
3% |
6% |
|
60 |
2% |
3% |
|
61 |
0.3% |
0.9% |
|
62 |
0.3% |
0.6% |
|
63 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
64 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
65 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
66 |
0% |
0% |
|
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
37 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
38 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
39 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
40 |
0.3% |
99.8% |
|
41 |
0.2% |
99.5% |
|
42 |
0.6% |
99.3% |
|
43 |
0.5% |
98.7% |
|
44 |
2% |
98% |
|
45 |
6% |
96% |
|
46 |
6% |
91% |
|
47 |
8% |
85% |
|
48 |
6% |
77% |
|
49 |
5% |
71% |
|
50 |
7% |
65% |
|
51 |
8% |
58% |
Last Result, Median |
52 |
8% |
50% |
|
53 |
15% |
42% |
|
54 |
9% |
27% |
|
55 |
6% |
18% |
|
56 |
7% |
13% |
|
57 |
3% |
6% |
|
58 |
1.3% |
3% |
|
59 |
0.6% |
2% |
|
60 |
1.0% |
2% |
|
61 |
0.3% |
0.6% |
|
62 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
63 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
64 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
65 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
66 |
0% |
0% |
|
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
30 |
0% |
100% |
|
31 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
32 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
33 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
34 |
0.2% |
99.7% |
|
35 |
1.1% |
99.5% |
|
36 |
1.1% |
98% |
|
37 |
2% |
97% |
|
38 |
4% |
96% |
|
39 |
8% |
92% |
|
40 |
11% |
84% |
|
41 |
9% |
72% |
|
42 |
14% |
64% |
|
43 |
8% |
50% |
Median |
44 |
9% |
42% |
|
45 |
12% |
33% |
|
46 |
7% |
22% |
|
47 |
9% |
15% |
|
48 |
4% |
6% |
|
49 |
1.3% |
2% |
|
50 |
0.7% |
1.2% |
|
51 |
0.2% |
0.5% |
Last Result |
52 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
53 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
54 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
Fine Gael – Labour Party

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
24 |
0% |
100% |
|
25 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
26 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
27 |
0.2% |
99.7% |
|
28 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
29 |
1.3% |
99.4% |
|
30 |
2% |
98% |
|
31 |
7% |
96% |
|
32 |
3% |
89% |
|
33 |
9% |
87% |
|
34 |
9% |
78% |
|
35 |
23% |
69% |
|
36 |
7% |
45% |
Median |
37 |
5% |
38% |
|
38 |
5% |
33% |
|
39 |
5% |
28% |
|
40 |
6% |
23% |
|
41 |
8% |
17% |
|
42 |
2% |
9% |
|
43 |
3% |
8% |
|
44 |
2% |
4% |
|
45 |
1.1% |
2% |
|
46 |
0.6% |
1.1% |
|
47 |
0.2% |
0.5% |
|
48 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
49 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
50 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
51 |
0% |
0% |
|
52 |
0% |
0% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Fine Gael

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
16 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
17 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
18 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
19 |
0.2% |
99.7% |
|
20 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
21 |
0.4% |
99.4% |
|
22 |
0.4% |
99.0% |
|
23 |
5% |
98.6% |
|
24 |
13% |
93% |
|
25 |
9% |
81% |
|
26 |
21% |
72% |
|
27 |
14% |
51% |
Median |
28 |
11% |
37% |
|
29 |
7% |
26% |
|
30 |
4% |
19% |
|
31 |
7% |
15% |
|
32 |
3% |
8% |
|
33 |
2% |
5% |
|
34 |
2% |
3% |
|
35 |
0.7% |
2% |
|
36 |
0.7% |
0.8% |
|
37 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
38 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
39 |
0% |
0% |
|
40 |
0% |
0% |
|
41 |
0% |
0% |
|
42 |
0% |
0% |
|
43 |
0% |
0% |
|
44 |
0% |
0% |
|
45 |
0% |
0% |
|
46 |
0% |
0% |
|
47 |
0% |
0% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Survation
- Commissioner(s): Sinn Féin
- Fieldwork period: 27 January–2 February 2020
Calculations
- Sample size: 1074
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 2.44%