Opinion Poll by Vilmorus for Lietuvos rytas, 10–18 July 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga 22.4% 27.0% 25.3–28.9% 24.8–29.4% 24.3–29.9% 23.5–30.8%
Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai 22.6% 26.5% 24.8–28.4% 24.3–28.9% 23.9–29.3% 23.0–30.2%
Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija 15.0% 10.8% 9.7–12.2% 9.3–12.6% 9.1–12.9% 8.5–13.6%
Darbo Partija 4.9% 9.5% 8.4–10.8% 8.1–11.2% 7.9–11.5% 7.4–12.2%
Liberalų Sąjūdis 9.4% 7.2% 6.3–8.4% 6.0–8.7% 5.8–9.0% 5.3–9.6%
Partija „Laisvė ir teisingumas“ 0.0% 5.6% 4.8–6.7% 4.5–7.0% 4.3–7.2% 4.0–7.8%
Lietuvos socialdemokratų darbo partija 0.0% 4.8% 4.1–5.8% 3.8–6.1% 3.7–6.3% 3.3–6.8%
Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija 5.7% 3.3% 2.7–4.2% 2.5–4.4% 2.4–4.6% 2.1–5.1%
Centro partija „Gerovės Lietuva“ 0.0% 2.4% 1.9–3.2% 1.7–3.4% 1.6–3.6% 1.4–4.0%
Laisvės partija 0.0% 2.4% 1.9–3.2% 1.7–3.4% 1.6–3.6% 1.4–4.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga 54 21 19–23 19–24 19–24 18–25
Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai 31 21 19–23 19–23 18–24 17–25
Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija 17 9 8–10 7–10 7–11 7–11
Darbo Partija 2 7 7–8 6–9 6–9 6–10
Liberalų Sąjūdis 14 6 5–7 5–7 4–7 4–8
Partija „Laisvė ir teisingumas“ 0 4 0–5 0–5 0–5 0–6
Lietuvos socialdemokratų darbo partija 0 0 0–5 0–5 0–5 0–5
Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija 8 0 0 0 0 0–4
Centro partija „Gerovės Lietuva“ 0 0 0 0 0 0
Laisvės partija 0 0 0 0 0 0

Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.7% 100%  
19 9% 99.3%  
20 20% 90%  
21 34% 70% Median
22 21% 36%  
23 9% 15%  
24 6% 6%  
25 0.4% 0.6%  
26 0.2% 0.3%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0% Last Result

Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.7% 100%  
18 2% 99.3%  
19 20% 97%  
20 19% 77%  
21 34% 58% Median
22 12% 25%  
23 10% 12%  
24 1.4% 3%  
25 1.4% 1.5%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0% Last Result

Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.3% 100%  
7 5% 99.7%  
8 28% 95%  
9 33% 67% Median
10 30% 34%  
11 4% 5%  
12 0.2% 0.2%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0% Last Result

Darbo Partija

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Darbo Partija page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.1% 100%  
6 9% 99.9%  
7 47% 91% Median
8 34% 44%  
9 9% 10%  
10 1.1% 1.2%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Liberalų Sąjūdis

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalų Sąjūdis page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100%  
1 0% 99.8%  
2 0% 99.8%  
3 0% 99.8%  
4 4% 99.8%  
5 35% 96%  
6 50% 60% Median
7 9% 10%  
8 1.0% 1.0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

Partija „Laisvė ir teisingumas“

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partija „Laisvė ir teisingumas“ page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 10% 100% Last Result
1 0% 90%  
2 0% 90%  
3 0% 90%  
4 42% 90% Median
5 46% 48%  
6 2% 2%  
7 0% 0%  

Lietuvos socialdemokratų darbo partija

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos socialdemokratų darbo partija page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 58% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 42%  
2 0% 42%  
3 0% 42%  
4 26% 42%  
5 16% 16%  
6 0.2% 0.2%  
7 0% 0%  

Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.4% 100% Median
1 0% 0.6%  
2 0% 0.6%  
3 0% 0.6%  
4 0.5% 0.6%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0% Last Result

Centro partija „Gerovės Lietuva“

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centro partija „Gerovės Lietuva“ page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Laisvės partija

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Laisvės partija page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga – Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija 71 31 0% 28–32 27–33 27–33 26–34

Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga – Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.5% 99.9%  
27 9% 99.4%  
28 7% 91%  
29 19% 83%  
30 14% 64% Median
31 29% 50%  
32 14% 21%  
33 7% 8%  
34 0.7% 1.0%  
35 0.2% 0.3%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations