Opinion Poll by Spinter tyrimai for Delfi, 26 August–4 September 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai 22.6% 21.7% 20.1–23.5% 19.7–24.0% 19.3–24.4% 18.5–25.2%
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga 22.4% 19.4% 17.9–21.1% 17.5–21.6% 17.1–22.0% 16.4–22.8%
Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija 15.0% 12.6% 11.3–14.0% 11.0–14.4% 10.7–14.8% 10.1–15.5%
Darbo Partija 4.9% 8.6% 7.6–9.9% 7.3–10.2% 7.0–10.5% 6.6–11.2%
Laisvės partija 0.0% 6.8% 5.9–8.0% 5.7–8.3% 5.4–8.6% 5.0–9.1%
Liberalų Sąjūdis 9.4% 6.0% 5.1–7.0% 4.8–7.3% 4.6–7.6% 4.3–8.1%
Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija 5.7% 4.5% 3.7–5.4% 3.5–5.7% 3.4–5.9% 3.0–6.4%
Partija „Laisvė ir teisingumas“ 0.0% 4.5% 3.7–5.4% 3.5–5.7% 3.4–5.9% 3.0–6.4%
Lietuvos socialdemokratų darbo partija 0.0% 3.7% 3.0–4.6% 2.8–4.8% 2.7–5.0% 2.4–5.5%
Centro partija „Gerovės Lietuva“ 0.0% 3.3% 2.7–4.1% 2.5–4.4% 2.3–4.6% 2.1–5.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai 31 20 18–22 17–22 17–23 16–24
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga 54 17 16–20 15–21 15–21 14–21
Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija 17 12 10–13 10–13 9–14 9–14
Darbo Partija 2 8 7–9 7–10 6–10 6–10
Laisvės partija 0 6 5–7 5–8 5–8 4–8
Liberalų Sąjūdis 14 5 0–6 0–7 0–7 0–8
Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija 8 0 0–5 0–5 0–5 0–6
Partija „Laisvė ir teisingumas“ 0 0 0–5 0–5 0–5 0–5
Lietuvos socialdemokratų darbo partija 0 0 0 0 0 0–5
Centro partija „Gerovės Lietuva“ 0 0 0 0 0 0–4

Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.2% 100%  
16 1.3% 99.8%  
17 6% 98.5%  
18 19% 92%  
19 22% 73%  
20 21% 51% Median
21 19% 29%  
22 8% 11%  
23 2% 3%  
24 1.0% 1.0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0% Last Result

Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 0.7% 99.9%  
15 4% 99.2%  
16 16% 95%  
17 31% 79% Median
18 18% 49%  
19 18% 31%  
20 8% 13%  
21 5% 5%  
22 0.3% 0.4%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0% Last Result

Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.1% 100%  
9 4% 99.9%  
10 20% 96%  
11 26% 77%  
12 36% 51% Median
13 12% 15%  
14 3% 3%  
15 0.1% 0.2%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0% Last Result

Darbo Partija

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Darbo Partija page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.2% 100%  
6 3% 99.8%  
7 42% 97%  
8 35% 55% Median
9 13% 20%  
10 7% 7%  
11 0.2% 0.2%  
12 0% 0%  

Laisvės partija

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Laisvės partija page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.4% 100% Last Result
1 0% 99.6%  
2 0% 99.6%  
3 0% 99.6%  
4 0.2% 99.6%  
5 12% 99.4%  
6 41% 88% Median
7 39% 47%  
8 8% 8%  
9 0.2% 0.2%  
10 0% 0%  

Liberalų Sąjūdis

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalų Sąjūdis page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 14% 100%  
1 0% 86%  
2 0% 86%  
3 0% 86%  
4 1.5% 86%  
5 36% 84% Median
6 43% 49%  
7 5% 6%  
8 0.7% 0.7%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 82% 100% Median
1 0% 18%  
2 0% 18%  
3 0% 18%  
4 3% 18%  
5 14% 15%  
6 0.5% 0.5%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0% Last Result

Partija „Laisvė ir teisingumas“

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partija „Laisvė ir teisingumas“ page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 74% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 26%  
2 0% 26%  
3 0% 26%  
4 3% 26%  
5 23% 23%  
6 0.5% 0.5%  
7 0% 0%  

Lietuvos socialdemokratų darbo partija

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos socialdemokratų darbo partija page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 2%  
2 0% 2%  
3 0% 2%  
4 0.7% 2%  
5 1.1% 1.2%  
6 0% 0%  

Centro partija „Gerovės Lietuva“

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centro partija „Gerovės Lietuva“ page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.5% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.5%  
2 0% 0.5%  
3 0% 0.5%  
4 0.2% 0.5%  
5 0.3% 0.3%  
6 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga – Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija 71 29 0% 27–32 26–33 25–33 25–34

Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga – Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.2% 100%  
24 0.2% 99.8%  
25 3% 99.6%  
26 7% 97%  
27 8% 90%  
28 23% 82%  
29 18% 60% Median
30 16% 41%  
31 14% 25%  
32 6% 11%  
33 4% 5%  
34 0.9% 1.1%  
35 0.1% 0.2%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations