Opinion Poll by Baltijos tyrimai for ELTA, 17–27 September 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga 22.4% 23.2% 21.5–24.9% 21.0–25.4% 20.7–25.9% 19.9–26.7%
Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai 22.6% 17.7% 16.2–19.3% 15.8–19.8% 15.5–20.2% 14.8–21.0%
Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija 15.0% 13.9% 12.6–15.4% 12.2–15.8% 11.9–16.2% 11.3–16.9%
Liberalų Sąjūdis 9.4% 9.0% 8.0–10.3% 7.7–10.7% 7.4–11.0% 6.9–11.6%
Darbo Partija 4.9% 8.8% 7.8–10.1% 7.5–10.5% 7.2–10.8% 6.8–11.4%
Partija „Laisvė ir teisingumas“ 0.0% 8.0% 7.0–9.2% 6.7–9.5% 6.4–9.8% 6.0–10.4%
Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija 5.7% 5.8% 4.9–6.8% 4.7–7.1% 4.5–7.4% 4.1–7.9%
Laisvės partija 0.0% 3.4% 2.7–4.2% 2.6–4.5% 2.4–4.7% 2.1–5.1%
Lietuvos socialdemokratų darbo partija 0.0% 3.2% 2.6–4.0% 2.4–4.3% 2.3–4.5% 2.0–4.9%
Centro partija „Gerovės Lietuva“ 0.0% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.0% 2.1–4.2% 1.8–4.6%
Lietuvos Žaliųjų Partija 2.0% 0.7% 0.5–1.2% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.4% 0.2–1.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga 54 19 17–20 17–21 17–21 16–22
Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai 31 15 13–15 13–16 12–16 12–17
Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija 17 11 10–12 10–13 10–13 9–14
Liberalų Sąjūdis 14 7 7–8 7–9 6–9 6–10
Darbo Partija 2 7 6–8 6–8 6–9 5–9
Partija „Laisvė ir teisingumas“ 0 7 6–7 6–8 5–8 5–9
Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija 8 5 4–5 0–6 0–6 0–6
Laisvės partija 0 0 0 0 0 0
Lietuvos socialdemokratų darbo partija 0 0 0 0 0 0
Centro partija „Gerovės Lietuva“ 0 0 0 0 0 0
Lietuvos Žaliųjų Partija 0 0 0 0 0 0

Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.1% 100%  
16 1.2% 99.9%  
17 12% 98.7%  
18 13% 87%  
19 54% 74% Median
20 11% 20%  
21 7% 9%  
22 2% 2%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0% Last Result

Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.1% 100%  
12 4% 99.9%  
13 11% 96%  
14 25% 86%  
15 52% 60% Median
16 7% 8%  
17 0.9% 1.1%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0% Last Result

Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 1.2% 100%  
10 13% 98.7%  
11 58% 85% Median
12 20% 28%  
13 6% 8%  
14 1.2% 1.5%  
15 0.3% 0.3%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0% Last Result

Liberalų Sąjūdis

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalų Sąjūdis page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.2% 100%  
6 4% 99.8%  
7 67% 96% Median
8 23% 29%  
9 4% 6%  
10 2% 2%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

Darbo Partija

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Darbo Partija page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.7% 100%  
6 48% 99.3%  
7 29% 51% Median
8 18% 22%  
9 4% 4%  
10 0.2% 0.2%  
11 0% 0%  

Partija „Laisvė ir teisingumas“

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partija „Laisvė ir teisingumas“ page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 3% 100%  
6 23% 97%  
7 68% 74% Median
8 5% 6%  
9 0.9% 0.9%  
10 0% 0%  

Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 9% 100%  
1 0% 91%  
2 0% 91%  
3 0% 91%  
4 14% 91%  
5 71% 77% Median
6 6% 6%  
7 0.2% 0.2%  
8 0% 0% Last Result

Laisvės partija

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Laisvės partija page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.6% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.4%  
2 0% 0.4%  
3 0% 0.4%  
4 0.4% 0.4%  
5 0% 0%  

Lietuvos socialdemokratų darbo partija

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos socialdemokratų darbo partija page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.1%  
2 0% 0.1%  
3 0% 0.1%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Centro partija „Gerovės Lietuva“

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centro partija „Gerovės Lietuva“ page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Lietuvos Žaliųjų Partija

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos Žaliųjų Partija page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga – Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija 71 30 0% 28–32 28–32 27–33 27–34

Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga – Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 3% 99.9%  
28 8% 97%  
29 12% 89%  
30 48% 76% Median
31 13% 29%  
32 11% 15%  
33 3% 4%  
34 1.2% 1.4%  
35 0.1% 0.2%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations