Opinion Poll by Opinia24, 5–8 August 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0.0% 32.4% 30.5–34.3% 30.0–34.9% 29.5–35.3% 28.7–36.3%
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0.0% 29.2% 27.4–31.1% 26.9–31.6% 26.4–32.1% 25.6–33.0%
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0.0% 6.3% 5.4–7.4% 5.1–7.7% 4.9–8.0% 4.5–8.5%
Polska 2050 (RE) 0.0% 6.3% 5.4–7.4% 5.1–7.7% 4.9–8.0% 4.5–8.5%
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0.0% 5.9% 5.0–7.0% 4.8–7.2% 4.6–7.5% 4.2–8.1%
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0.0% 5.2% 4.4–6.2% 4.2–6.5% 4.0–6.7% 3.6–7.3%
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0.0% 4.3% 3.6–5.2% 3.4–5.5% 3.2–5.7% 2.9–6.2%
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0.0% 2.9% 2.3–3.7% 2.1–3.9% 2.0–4.1% 1.8–4.5%
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.3% 1.8–3.0% 1.6–3.2% 1.5–3.4% 1.3–3.8%
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0.0% 1.8% 1.4–2.5% 1.2–2.7% 1.1–2.8% 1.0–3.2%
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.7% 0.5–1.2% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.4% 0.2–1.7%
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0.0% 0.7% 0.5–1.2% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.4% 0.2–1.7%
Centrum dla Polski (*) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–1.1% 0.3–1.2% 0.3–1.3% 0.2–1.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0 19 18–20 18–21 18–21 17–21
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0 16 15–17 15–17 14–18 14–18
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0 3 3–4 3–4 2–4 2–5
Polska 2050 (RE) 0 4 3–4 3–4 3–4 2–5
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 3 3–4 3–4 3–4 2–5
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0 3 2–3 2–3 2–4 2–4
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 2 2–3 1–3 1–3 1–3
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 1 1 1 0–2 0–2
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Centrum dla Polski (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Platforma Obywatelska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0.2% 100%  
17 2% 99.8%  
18 18% 98%  
19 54% 80% Median
20 21% 26%  
21 5% 6%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0.2% 100%  
14 5% 99.8%  
15 27% 95%  
16 33% 69% Median
17 32% 36%  
18 3% 3%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Nowa Lewica (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Lewica (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 5% 100%  
3 60% 95% Median
4 35% 35%  
5 0.7% 0.7%  
6 0% 0%  

Polska 2050 (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polska 2050 (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.6% 100%  
3 43% 99.4%  
4 55% 57% Median
5 1.5% 1.5%  
6 0% 0%  

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 1.4% 100%  
3 84% 98.6% Median
4 14% 15%  
5 0.8% 0.8%  
6 0% 0%  

Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.1% 100%  
2 27% 99.9%  
3 69% 73% Median
4 4% 4%  
5 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ruch Narodowy (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 6% 100%  
2 73% 94% Median
3 21% 21%  
4 0.2% 0.2%  
5 0% 0%  

Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 50% 100%  
2 50% 50% Median
3 0.2% 0.2%  
4 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 5% 100% Last Result
1 91% 95% Median
2 4% 4%  
3 0% 0%  

.Nowoczesna (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the .Nowoczesna (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 59% 100% Last Result, Median
1 41% 41%  
2 0.2% 0.2%  
3 0% 0%  

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.5% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.5% 0.5%  
2 0% 0%  

Inicjatywa Polska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.5% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.5% 0.5%  
2 0% 0%  

Centrum dla Polski (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centrum dla Polski (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.2% 0.2%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 3 0% 3–4 3–4 3–4 2–5
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 2 0% 2–3 1–3 1–3 1–3
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 1 0% 1 1 0–2 0–2
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0–1

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 1.4% 100%  
3 84% 98.6% Median
4 14% 15%  
5 0.8% 0.8%  
6 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 6% 100%  
2 73% 94% Median
3 21% 21%  
4 0.2% 0.2%  
5 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 5% 100% Last Result
1 91% 95% Median
2 4% 4%  
3 0% 0%  

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.5% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.5% 0.5%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations