Opinion Poll by Research Partner for Ariadna, 13–16 September 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0.0% 32.9% 31.0–34.8% 30.5–35.3% 30.1–35.8% 29.2–36.7%
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0.0% 29.9% 28.1–31.8% 27.6–32.3% 27.2–32.8% 26.4–33.7%
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0.0% 7.0% 6.1–8.1% 5.8–8.5% 5.6–8.7% 5.2–9.3%
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0.0% 5.3% 4.5–6.3% 4.3–6.6% 4.1–6.8% 3.7–7.3%
Polska 2050 (RE) 0.0% 5.2% 4.4–6.2% 4.2–6.5% 4.0–6.7% 3.6–7.2%
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0.0% 4.3% 3.6–5.3% 3.4–5.5% 3.2–5.7% 2.9–6.2%
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0.0% 3.8% 3.2–4.7% 3.0–5.0% 2.8–5.2% 2.5–5.7%
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.6% 2.1–3.4% 1.9–3.6% 1.8–3.8% 1.6–4.1%
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0.0% 2.6% 2.1–3.4% 1.9–3.6% 1.8–3.8% 1.6–4.1%
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0.0% 1.6% 1.2–2.3% 1.1–2.5% 1.0–2.6% 0.9–2.9%
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.7% 0.4–1.1% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.4% 0.2–1.6%
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0.0% 0.7% 0.4–1.1% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.4% 0.2–1.6%
Centrum dla Polski (*) 0.0% 0.5% 0.3–0.9% 0.2–1.0% 0.2–1.1% 0.1–1.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0 18 18–20 17–20 17–21 16–21
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0 18 17–20 17–20 16–20 16–21
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0 4 3–4 3–5 3–5 3–5
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 3 2–4 2–4 2–4 2–4
Polska 2050 (RE) 0 3 3–4 2–4 2–4 2–4
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0 2 2–3 1–3 1–3 1–4
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 2 2–3 1–3 1–3 1–3
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Centrum dla Polski (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0.1% 100%  
16 0.5% 99.9%  
17 6% 99.5%  
18 50% 94% Median
19 17% 43%  
20 23% 26%  
21 4% 4%  
22 0% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Platforma Obywatelska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0.1% 100%  
16 3% 99.9%  
17 20% 97%  
18 32% 77% Median
19 34% 45%  
20 10% 11%  
21 0.7% 0.7%  
22 0% 0%  

Nowa Lewica (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Lewica (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100% Last Result
1 0% 99.8%  
2 0% 99.8%  
3 27% 99.7%  
4 64% 73% Median
5 9% 9%  
6 0% 0%  

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 12% 100%  
3 73% 88% Median
4 15% 16%  
5 0.3% 0.3%  
6 0% 0%  

Polska 2050 (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polska 2050 (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 9% 100%  
3 63% 91% Median
4 28% 28%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 9% 100%  
2 57% 91% Median
3 33% 34%  
4 1.3% 1.3%  
5 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ruch Narodowy (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 9% 100%  
2 70% 91% Median
3 21% 21%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.3% 100% Last Result
1 84% 99.7% Median
2 16% 16%  
3 0.1% 0.1%  
4 0% 0%  

.Nowoczesna (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the .Nowoczesna (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 59% 100% Last Result, Median
1 41% 41%  
2 0.2% 0.2%  
3 0% 0%  

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.2% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.8% 0.8%  
2 0% 0%  

Inicjatywa Polska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.2% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.8% 0.8%  
2 0% 0%  

Centrum dla Polski (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centrum dla Polski (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.7% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.3% 0.3%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 3 0% 2–4 2–4 2–4 2–4
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 2 0% 2–3 1–3 1–3 1–3
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0–1

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 12% 100%  
3 73% 88% Median
4 15% 16%  
5 0.3% 0.3%  
6 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 9% 100%  
2 70% 91% Median
3 21% 21%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.2% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.8% 0.8%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations