Opinion Poll by Ipsos for Krytyka Polityczna, 10–18 September 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0.0% 34.0% 32.1–36.0% 31.6–36.5% 31.1–37.0% 30.2–38.0%
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0.0% 28.2% 26.4–30.1% 25.9–30.6% 25.5–31.1% 24.7–32.0%
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0.0% 7.7% 6.7–8.9% 6.4–9.2% 6.2–9.5% 5.8–10.1%
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0.0% 6.6% 5.7–7.7% 5.4–8.0% 5.2–8.3% 4.8–8.9%
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0.0% 5.6% 4.8–6.6% 4.5–7.0% 4.3–7.2% 4.0–7.7%
Polska 2050 (RE) 0.0% 4.2% 3.5–5.1% 3.3–5.4% 3.1–5.6% 2.8–6.1%
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0.0% 3.7% 3.0–4.6% 2.9–4.8% 2.7–5.1% 2.4–5.5%
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0.0% 3.4% 2.8–4.3% 2.6–4.5% 2.4–4.7% 2.2–5.2%
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.4% 1.9–3.2% 1.7–3.4% 1.6–3.6% 1.4–3.9%
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0.0% 1.6% 1.2–2.2% 1.1–2.4% 1.0–2.6% 0.8–2.9%
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–1.1% 0.3–1.2% 0.3–1.3% 0.2–1.6%
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–1.1% 0.3–1.2% 0.3–1.3% 0.2–1.6%
Centrum dla Polski (*) 0.0% 0.4% 0.2–0.8% 0.2–0.9% 0.2–1.0% 0.1–1.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0 19 18–20 18–20 17–21 17–21
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0 16 16–18 16–18 15–18 15–19
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 4 4–5 4–5 3–5 3–6
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0 4 2–4 2–4 2–4 0–4
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 3 3–4 2–4 2–4 2–4
Polska 2050 (RE) 0 2 2–3 2–3 2–3 1–4
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0 2 1–2 1–3 1–3 1–3
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0 2 1–2 1–3 1–3 1–3
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Centrum dla Polski (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0.1% 100%  
17 4% 99.9%  
18 20% 96%  
19 51% 76% Median
20 22% 24%  
21 2% 3%  
22 0.5% 0.5%  
23 0% 0%  

Platforma Obywatelska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0.4% 100%  
15 4% 99.6%  
16 61% 95% Median
17 23% 34%  
18 10% 12%  
19 2% 2%  
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 3% 100%  
4 60% 97% Median
5 36% 38%  
6 2% 2%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

Nowa Lewica (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Lewica (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.4% 100% Last Result
1 0% 98.6%  
2 15% 98.6%  
3 31% 84%  
4 52% 52% Median
5 0.4% 0.4%  
6 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ruch Narodowy (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 8% 100%  
3 77% 92% Median
4 14% 14%  
5 0.3% 0.3%  
6 0% 0%  

Polska 2050 (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polska 2050 (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 1.5% 100%  
2 50% 98.5% Median
3 47% 48%  
4 1.3% 1.3%  
5 0% 0%  

Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 18% 100%  
2 77% 82% Median
3 5% 5%  
4 0% 0%  

Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 43% 100%  
2 47% 57% Median
3 9% 9%  
4 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

.Nowoczesna (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the .Nowoczesna (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 21% 100% Last Result
1 79% 79% Median
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 1.2% 1.2%  
2 0% 0%  

Inicjatywa Polska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.5% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.5% 0.5%  
2 0% 0%  

Centrum dla Polski (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centrum dla Polski (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.7% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.3% 0.3%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 4 0% 4–5 4–5 3–5 3–6
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 3 0% 3–4 2–4 2–4 2–4
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0–1

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 3% 100%  
4 60% 97% Median
5 36% 38%  
6 2% 2%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 8% 100%  
3 77% 92% Median
4 14% 14%  
5 0.3% 0.3%  
6 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 1.2% 1.2%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations