Opinion Poll by United Surveys for WP.pl, 20–21 September 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0.0% 33.6% 31.7–35.5% 31.2–36.0% 30.7–36.5% 29.9–37.4%
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0.0% 33.4% 31.5–35.3% 31.0–35.8% 30.6–36.3% 29.7–37.2%
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0.0% 6.8% 5.9–7.9% 5.7–8.3% 5.4–8.5% 5.0–9.1%
Polska 2050 (RE) 0.0% 5.9% 5.0–6.9% 4.8–7.2% 4.6–7.5% 4.2–8.0%
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0.0% 4.8% 4.1–5.8% 3.8–6.1% 3.7–6.3% 3.3–6.8%
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0.0% 4.1% 3.4–5.0% 3.2–5.3% 3.1–5.5% 2.8–6.0%
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0.0% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.0% 2.1–4.2% 1.9–4.6%
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.5% 2.0–3.2% 1.8–3.5% 1.7–3.6% 1.5–4.0%
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0.0% 2.0% 1.6–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.1% 1.1–3.4%
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0.0% 1.8% 1.4–2.5% 1.3–2.7% 1.2–2.9% 1.0–3.2%
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0.0% 0.8% 0.5–1.2% 0.4–1.4% 0.4–1.5% 0.3–1.8%
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.8% 0.5–1.2% 0.4–1.4% 0.4–1.5% 0.3–1.8%
Centrum dla Polski (*) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–1.0% 0.3–1.1% 0.3–1.3% 0.2–1.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0 18 18–20 18–20 18–20 17–21
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0 18 17–18 17–19 17–19 17–20
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0 3 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–4
Polska 2050 (RE) 0 4 3–4 3–4 3–4 2–4
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0 3 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–4
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 2 1–3 1–3 1–3 1–3
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 1 1 1 1–2 0–2
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0 1 1 1 0–1 0–2
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Centrum dla Polski (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Platforma Obywatelska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0.1% 100%  
17 1.4% 99.9%  
18 50% 98.5% Median
19 6% 48%  
20 39% 42%  
21 2% 2%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0.4% 100%  
17 35% 99.5%  
18 58% 65% Median
19 6% 7%  
20 0.7% 0.8%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Nowa Lewica (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Lewica (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.1% 100%  
3 62% 99.9% Median
4 38% 38%  
5 0.3% 0.3%  
6 0% 0%  

Polska 2050 (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polska 2050 (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.8% 100%  
3 46% 99.2%  
4 53% 53% Median
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 16% 100%  
3 83% 84% Median
4 0.7% 0.7%  
5 0% 0%  

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 22% 100%  
2 61% 78% Median
3 17% 17%  
4 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ruch Narodowy (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 24% 100%  
2 76% 76% Median
3 0.2% 0.2%  
4 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.2% 100% Last Result
1 95% 98.8% Median
2 3% 3%  
3 0% 0%  

Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 3% 100% Last Result
1 96% 97% Median
2 1.1% 1.1%  
3 0% 0%  

.Nowoczesna (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the .Nowoczesna (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 10% 100% Last Result
1 90% 90% Median
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Inicjatywa Polska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.1% 0.1%  
2 0% 0%  

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.1% 0.1%  
2 0% 0%  

Centrum dla Polski (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centrum dla Polski (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 2 0% 1–3 1–3 1–3 1–3
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 1 0% 1 1 1–2 0–2
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 2 0% 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 22% 100%  
2 61% 78% Median
3 17% 17%  
4 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.2% 100% Last Result
1 95% 98.8% Median
2 3% 3%  
3 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 24% 100%  
2 76% 76% Median
3 0.2% 0.2%  
4 0% 0%  

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.1% 0.1%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations