Opinion Poll by Instytut Badań Pollster for TVP Info, 29–30 September 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0.0% 31.9% 30.1–33.8% 29.6–34.3% 29.1–34.8% 28.3–35.7%
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0.0% 30.9% 29.2–32.8% 28.7–33.4% 28.2–33.8% 27.4–34.7%
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0.0% 7.3% 6.3–8.4% 6.1–8.7% 5.8–9.0% 5.4–9.6%
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0.0% 5.5% 4.7–6.6% 4.5–6.8% 4.3–7.1% 3.9–7.6%
Polska 2050 (RE) 0.0% 5.4% 4.6–6.5% 4.4–6.7% 4.2–7.0% 3.9–7.5%
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0.0% 4.5% 3.8–5.4% 3.6–5.7% 3.4–5.9% 3.1–6.4%
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0.0% 4.1% 3.4–5.0% 3.2–5.3% 3.1–5.5% 2.8–6.0%
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0.0% 2.8% 2.2–3.5% 2.1–3.8% 1.9–4.0% 1.7–4.4%
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.7% 2.1–3.4% 2.0–3.7% 1.9–3.8% 1.6–4.2%
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0.0% 1.7% 1.3–2.4% 1.2–2.5% 1.1–2.7% 0.9–3.0%
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.7% 0.4–1.1% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.4% 0.2–1.6%
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0.0% 0.7% 0.4–1.1% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.4% 0.2–1.6%
Centrum dla Polski (*) 0.0% 0.5% 0.3–0.9% 0.2–1.0% 0.2–1.1% 0.1–1.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0 17 16–19 16–19 16–19 15–19
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0 18 17–19 17–19 16–20 16–21
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0 4 3–5 3–5 3–5 3–6
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 3 2–4 2–4 2–4 2–4
Polska 2050 (RE) 0 3 2–4 2–4 2–4 2–4
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0 2 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 2 2–3 2–3 2–3 1–3
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–3
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Centrum dla Polski (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0.5% 100%  
16 23% 99.5%  
17 39% 77% Median
18 23% 37%  
19 14% 14%  
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Platforma Obywatelska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0.1% 100%  
16 4% 99.9%  
17 17% 96%  
18 53% 78% Median
19 23% 26%  
20 2% 3%  
21 0.5% 0.5%  
22 0% 0%  

Nowa Lewica (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Lewica (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 19% 100%  
4 51% 81% Median
5 29% 30%  
6 1.2% 1.2%  
7 0% 0%  

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 14% 100%  
3 62% 86% Median
4 24% 24%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Polska 2050 (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polska 2050 (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 15% 100%  
3 75% 85% Median
4 11% 11%  
5 0% 0%  

Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.3% 100%  
2 81% 99.7% Median
3 18% 18%  
4 0.4% 0.4%  
5 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ruch Narodowy (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 2% 100%  
2 86% 98% Median
3 12% 12%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100% Last Result
1 59% 99.9% Median
2 41% 41%  
3 0.5% 0.5%  
4 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.4% 100% Last Result
1 78% 99.6% Median
2 22% 22%  
3 0% 0%  

.Nowoczesna (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the .Nowoczesna (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 41% 100% Last Result
1 59% 59% Median
2 0% 0%  

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.7% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.3% 0.3%  
2 0% 0%  

Inicjatywa Polska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.2% 0.2%  
2 0% 0%  

Centrum dla Polski (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centrum dla Polski (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.2% 0.2%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 3 0% 2–4 2–4 2–4 2–4
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 2 0% 2–3 2–3 2–3 1–3
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 1 0% 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 14% 100%  
3 62% 86% Median
4 24% 24%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 2% 100%  
2 86% 98% Median
3 12% 12%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.4% 100% Last Result
1 78% 99.6% Median
2 22% 22%  
3 0% 0%  

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.7% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.3% 0.3%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations