Opinion Poll by Instytut Badań Pollster for Super Express, 5–6 October 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0.0% 31.4% 29.5–33.3% 29.0–33.9% 28.6–34.3% 27.7–35.3%
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0.0% 29.0% 27.2–30.9% 26.7–31.4% 26.3–31.9% 25.4–32.8%
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0.0% 6.4% 5.5–7.5% 5.2–7.8% 5.0–8.0% 4.6–8.6%
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0.0% 6.2% 5.3–7.2% 5.0–7.5% 4.8–7.8% 4.4–8.4%
Polska 2050 (RE) 0.0% 5.6% 4.7–6.6% 4.5–6.9% 4.3–7.2% 3.9–7.7%
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0.0% 4.6% 3.8–5.5% 3.6–5.8% 3.4–6.1% 3.1–6.5%
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0.0% 4.6% 3.8–5.5% 3.6–5.8% 3.4–6.1% 3.1–6.5%
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0.0% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.0% 2.1–4.2% 1.8–4.6%
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.4% 1.9–3.1% 1.7–3.3% 1.6–3.5% 1.4–3.9%
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0.0% 1.6% 1.2–2.2% 1.1–2.4% 1.0–2.6% 0.8–2.9%
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–1.1% 0.3–1.2% 0.3–1.3% 0.2–1.6%
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–1.1% 0.3–1.2% 0.3–1.3% 0.2–1.6%
Centrum dla Polski (*) 0.0% 0.5% 0.3–0.9% 0.3–1.1% 0.2–1.2% 0.2–1.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0 18 17–19 17–19 16–20 16–21
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0 18 17–19 16–19 16–19 15–20
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0 3 3 3–4 2–4 0–4
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 4 3–4 2–4 2–4 2–5
Polska 2050 (RE) 0 3 3–4 2–4 2–4 2–5
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0 3 2–3 2–3 2–4 2–4
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 3 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–4
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–3
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Centrum dla Polski (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0.2% 100%  
16 5% 99.8%  
17 32% 95%  
18 40% 64% Median
19 21% 24%  
20 2% 3%  
21 0.7% 0.7%  
22 0% 0%  

Platforma Obywatelska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 1.2% 100%  
16 4% 98.8%  
17 11% 95%  
18 46% 83% Median
19 35% 37%  
20 1.3% 2%  
21 0.3% 0.3%  
22 0% 0%  

Nowa Lewica (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Lewica (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100% Last Result
1 0% 98%  
2 1.0% 98%  
3 87% 97% Median
4 9% 10%  
5 0.4% 0.4%  
6 0% 0%  

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 8% 100%  
3 39% 92%  
4 51% 53% Median
5 2% 2%  
6 0% 0%  

Polska 2050 (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polska 2050 (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 6% 100%  
3 65% 94% Median
4 28% 30%  
5 1.2% 1.2%  
6 0% 0%  

Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.1% 100%  
2 50% 99.9%  
3 45% 50% Median
4 5% 5%  
5 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ruch Narodowy (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.5% 100%  
2 37% 99.5%  
3 62% 63% Median
4 1.4% 1.5%  
5 0% 0%  

Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 60% 100% Median
2 40% 40%  
3 0.5% 0.5%  
4 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

.Nowoczesna (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the .Nowoczesna (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 37% 100% Last Result
1 63% 63% Median
2 0.3% 0.3%  
3 0% 0%  

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.6% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.4% 0.4%  
2 0% 0%  

Inicjatywa Polska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.7% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.3% 0.3%  
2 0% 0%  

Centrum dla Polski (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centrum dla Polski (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.2% 0.2%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 4 0% 3–4 2–4 2–4 2–5
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 3 0% 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–4
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 8% 100%  
3 39% 92%  
4 51% 53% Median
5 2% 2%  
6 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.5% 100%  
2 37% 99.5%  
3 62% 63% Median
4 1.4% 1.5%  
5 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.6% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.4% 0.4%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations