Opinion Poll by IBRiS for Wydarzenia Polsat, 11–14 October 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0.0% 35.4% 33.5–37.3% 33.0–37.8% 32.6–38.2% 31.7–39.2%
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0.0% 31.5% 29.8–33.4% 29.3–33.9% 28.9–34.4% 28.0–35.3%
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0.0% 6.0% 5.2–7.0% 4.9–7.3% 4.7–7.6% 4.4–8.1%
Polska 2050 (RE) 0.0% 5.5% 4.7–6.4% 4.5–6.7% 4.3–7.0% 3.9–7.5%
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0.0% 5.0% 4.3–6.0% 4.0–6.2% 3.9–6.5% 3.5–7.0%
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0.0% 4.5% 3.8–5.5% 3.6–5.7% 3.5–5.9% 3.1–6.4%
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0.0% 3.6% 3.0–4.5% 2.8–4.7% 2.7–4.9% 2.4–5.3%
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0.0% 2.5% 2.0–3.2% 1.8–3.4% 1.7–3.6% 1.5–3.9%
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.2% 1.7–2.9% 1.6–3.1% 1.5–3.2% 1.3–3.6%
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0.0% 1.7% 1.3–2.3% 1.2–2.5% 1.1–2.7% 0.9–3.0%
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.7% 0.5–1.2% 0.4–1.3% 0.4–1.4% 0.3–1.7%
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0.0% 0.7% 0.5–1.2% 0.4–1.3% 0.4–1.4% 0.3–1.7%
Centrum dla Polski (*) 0.0% 0.5% 0.4–1.0% 0.3–1.1% 0.2–1.2% 0.2–1.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0 19 18–20 17–21 17–21 17–22
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0 19 18–20 17–20 17–20 16–20
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0 3 2–3 2–4 2–4 0–4
Polska 2050 (RE) 0 3 2–3 2–4 2–4 2–4
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 3 2–4 2–4 2–4 2–4
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0 3 2–3 2–3 2–4 2–4
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 2 1–3 1–3 1–3 1–3
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Centrum dla Polski (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1

Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 6% 100%  
18 36% 94%  
19 34% 59% Median
20 17% 25%  
21 7% 7%  
22 0.8% 0.8%  
23 0% 0%  

Platforma Obywatelska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 2% 100%  
17 6% 98%  
18 38% 92%  
19 27% 54% Median
20 26% 27%  
21 0.4% 0.5%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Nowa Lewica (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Lewica (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100% Last Result
1 0% 98%  
2 8% 98%  
3 81% 89% Median
4 9% 9%  
5 0% 0%  

Polska 2050 (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polska 2050 (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 12% 100%  
3 80% 88% Median
4 8% 8%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 22% 100%  
3 60% 78% Median
4 18% 18%  
5 0% 0%  

Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.3% 100%  
2 46% 99.7%  
3 49% 53% Median
4 5% 5%  
5 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ruch Narodowy (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 10% 100%  
2 78% 90% Median
3 12% 12%  
4 0% 0%  

Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.4% 100% Last Result
1 79% 99.6% Median
2 20% 20%  
3 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

.Nowoczesna (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the .Nowoczesna (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 24% 100% Last Result
1 76% 76% Median
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 1.2% 1.2%  
2 0% 0%  

Inicjatywa Polska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.3% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.7% 0.7%  
2 0% 0%  

Centrum dla Polski (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centrum dla Polski (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.0% 100% Last Result, Median
1 1.0% 1.0%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 3 0% 2–4 2–4 2–4 2–4
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 2 0% 1–3 1–3 1–3 1–3
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0–1

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 22% 100%  
3 60% 78% Median
4 18% 18%  
5 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 10% 100%  
2 78% 90% Median
3 12% 12%  
4 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 1.2% 1.2%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations