Opinion Poll by Opinia24 for TVN24, 15–18 October 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0.0% 34.1% 32.2–36.0% 31.6–36.6% 31.2–37.1% 30.3–38.0%
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0.0% 32.0% 30.1–33.9% 29.6–34.4% 29.1–34.9% 28.3–35.9%
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0.0% 6.8% 5.9–7.9% 5.6–8.2% 5.4–8.5% 5.0–9.1%
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0.0% 5.8% 4.9–6.9% 4.7–7.2% 4.5–7.4% 4.1–8.0%
Polska 2050 (RE) 0.0% 4.3% 3.6–5.2% 3.4–5.5% 3.2–5.7% 2.9–6.2%
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0.0% 4.2% 3.5–5.1% 3.3–5.4% 3.1–5.6% 2.8–6.1%
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0.0% 3.6% 2.9–4.5% 2.8–4.7% 2.6–5.0% 2.3–5.4%
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0.0% 2.8% 2.2–3.6% 2.1–3.8% 1.9–4.0% 1.7–4.4%
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.5% 2.0–3.3% 1.8–3.5% 1.7–3.7% 1.5–4.1%
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0.0% 1.8% 1.4–2.5% 1.2–2.7% 1.1–2.8% 1.0–3.2%
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.7% 0.5–1.2% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.4% 0.2–1.7%
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0.0% 0.7% 0.5–1.2% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.4% 0.2–1.7%
Centrum dla Polski (*) 0.0% 0.4% 0.2–0.8% 0.2–0.9% 0.2–1.0% 0.1–1.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0 19 19–20 18–20 17–20 17–20
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0 18 18–19 18–20 18–20 17–21
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0 4 3–4 3–4 3–4 2–4
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 3 3–4 3–4 3–4 2–4
Polska 2050 (RE) 0 2 2 2–3 2–3 2–3
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 2 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0 2 2 2 2–3 1–3
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Centrum dla Polski (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0.1% 100%  
17 4% 99.9%  
18 4% 96%  
19 80% 92% Median
20 12% 12%  
21 0.2% 0.2%  
22 0% 0%  

Platforma Obywatelska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0.1% 100%  
17 2% 99.9%  
18 84% 98% Median
19 8% 14%  
20 6% 7%  
21 0.7% 0.7%  
22 0% 0%  

Nowa Lewica (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Lewica (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100% Last Result
1 0% 99.9%  
2 0.6% 99.9%  
3 22% 99.4%  
4 77% 77% Median
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.8% 100%  
3 59% 99.2% Median
4 40% 40%  
5 0.4% 0.4%  
6 0% 0%  

Polska 2050 (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polska 2050 (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.1% 100%  
2 92% 99.9% Median
3 7% 7%  
4 0.3% 0.3%  
5 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ruch Narodowy (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.4% 100%  
2 58% 99.6% Median
3 42% 42%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 2% 100%  
2 94% 98% Median
3 4% 4%  
4 0% 0%  

Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100% Last Result
1 48% 99.9%  
2 52% 52% Median
3 0.1% 0.1%  
4 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

.Nowoczesna (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the .Nowoczesna (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 42% 100% Last Result
1 58% 58% Median
2 0.2% 0.2%  
3 0% 0%  

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.1% 0.1%  
2 0% 0%  

Inicjatywa Polska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.2% 0.2%  
2 0% 0%  

Centrum dla Polski (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centrum dla Polski (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 3 0% 3–4 3–4 3–4 2–4
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 2 0% 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.8% 100%  
3 59% 99.2% Median
4 40% 40%  
5 0.4% 0.4%  
6 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.4% 100%  
2 58% 99.6% Median
3 42% 42%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.1% 0.1%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations