Opinion Poll by IBRiS for Rzeczpospolita, 25–26 October 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0.0% 32.6% 30.8–34.4% 30.2–35.0% 29.8–35.4% 29.0–36.3%
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0.0% 31.3% 29.6–33.2% 29.1–33.7% 28.6–34.2% 27.8–35.1%
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0.0% 6.9% 6.0–8.0% 5.8–8.3% 5.5–8.6% 5.1–9.2%
Polska 2050 (RE) 0.0% 5.6% 4.8–6.6% 4.6–6.9% 4.4–7.2% 4.0–7.7%
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0.0% 4.7% 3.9–5.6% 3.7–5.9% 3.6–6.1% 3.2–6.6%
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0.0% 4.7% 3.9–5.6% 3.7–5.9% 3.6–6.1% 3.2–6.6%
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0.0% 3.4% 2.8–4.2% 2.6–4.4% 2.4–4.6% 2.2–5.1%
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.5% 2.0–3.3% 1.9–3.5% 1.7–3.7% 1.5–4.0%
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0.0% 2.2% 1.8–2.9% 1.6–3.2% 1.5–3.3% 1.3–3.7%
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0.0% 1.7% 1.3–2.3% 1.2–2.5% 1.1–2.7% 0.9–3.0%
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.7% 0.4–1.1% 0.4–1.2% 0.3–1.4% 0.2–1.6%
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0.0% 0.7% 0.4–1.1% 0.4–1.2% 0.3–1.4% 0.2–1.6%
Centrum dla Polski (*) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–1.0% 0.3–1.1% 0.3–1.2% 0.2–1.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0 18 17–19 17–19 17–20 16–20
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0 19 18–20 18–20 17–20 17–21
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0 4 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–5
Polska 2050 (RE) 0 3 3–4 3–4 2–4 2–5
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0 3 2–3 2–4 2–4 2–4
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 2 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–4
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 2 1–2 1–3 1–3 1–3
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0 1 1 1–2 1–2 0–2
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Centrum dla Polski (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0.6% 100%  
17 11% 99.4%  
18 59% 88% Median
19 25% 29%  
20 4% 4%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Platforma Obywatelska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0.3% 100%  
17 2% 99.7%  
18 23% 97%  
19 63% 74% Median
20 10% 11%  
21 1.4% 2%  
22 0.3% 0.3%  
23 0% 0%  

Nowa Lewica (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Lewica (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100% Last Result
1 0% 99.8%  
2 0% 99.8%  
3 31% 99.8%  
4 66% 68% Median
5 2% 2%  
6 0% 0%  

Polska 2050 (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polska 2050 (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 4% 100%  
3 84% 96% Median
4 11% 12%  
5 0.9% 0.9%  
6 0% 0%  

Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.2% 100%  
2 17% 99.8%  
3 78% 83% Median
4 5% 5%  
5 0% 0%  

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 61% 100% Median
3 36% 39%  
4 2% 2%  
5 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ruch Narodowy (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 15% 100%  
2 80% 85% Median
3 5% 5%  
4 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100% Last Result
1 90% 98% Median
2 8% 8%  
3 0% 0%  

.Nowoczesna (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the .Nowoczesna (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 13% 100% Last Result
1 87% 87% Median
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.1% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.9% 0.9%  
2 0% 0%  

Inicjatywa Polska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.3% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.7% 0.7%  
2 0% 0%  

Centrum dla Polski (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centrum dla Polski (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.2% 0.2%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 2 0% 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–4
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 2 0% 1–2 1–3 1–3 1–3
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0–1

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 61% 100% Median
3 36% 39%  
4 2% 2%  
5 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 15% 100%  
2 80% 85% Median
3 5% 5%  
4 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.1% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.9% 0.9%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations