Opinion Poll by United Surveys for WP.pl, 25–27 October 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0.0% 33.1% 31.2–35.1% 30.7–35.6% 30.2–36.1% 29.4–37.0%
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0.0% 31.3% 29.5–33.2% 28.9–33.8% 28.5–34.2% 27.6–35.2%
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0.0% 6.9% 6.0–8.0% 5.7–8.4% 5.5–8.7% 5.1–9.2%
Polska 2050 (RE) 0.0% 5.9% 5.0–7.0% 4.8–7.3% 4.6–7.5% 4.2–8.1%
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0.0% 5.2% 4.4–6.2% 4.2–6.5% 4.0–6.8% 3.6–7.3%
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0.0% 4.9% 4.1–5.9% 3.9–6.2% 3.7–6.4% 3.4–6.9%
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0.0% 3.8% 3.1–4.7% 2.9–5.0% 2.8–5.2% 2.5–5.6%
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.6% 2.1–3.4% 1.9–3.6% 1.8–3.8% 1.6–4.2%
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0.0% 2.5% 2.0–3.3% 1.8–3.5% 1.7–3.7% 1.5–4.1%
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0.0% 1.8% 1.4–2.5% 1.2–2.7% 1.1–2.8% 1.0–3.2%
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.7% 0.5–1.2% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.4% 0.2–1.7%
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0.0% 0.7% 0.5–1.2% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.4% 0.2–1.7%
Centrum dla Polski (*) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–1.1% 0.3–1.2% 0.3–1.3% 0.2–1.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0 19 18–20 18–20 18–20 18–22
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0 17 16–17 16–18 16–18 15–19
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0 3 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–4
Polska 2050 (RE) 0 3 3–4 3–4 3–4 2–4
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 3 3 3–4 2–4 2–4
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0 4 3–4 3–4 2–4 2–4
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 2 2 2 2–3 1–3
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0 1 1 1 1–2 1–2
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Centrum dla Polski (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Platforma Obywatelska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0.1% 100%  
18 19% 99.9%  
19 63% 81% Median
20 16% 18%  
21 1.0% 2%  
22 0.7% 0.7%  
23 0% 0%  

Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 2% 100%  
16 10% 98%  
17 80% 88% Median
18 7% 8%  
19 0.7% 1.0%  
20 0.4% 0.4%  
21 0% 0%  

Nowa Lewica (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Lewica (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100% Last Result
1 0% 99.9%  
2 0% 99.9%  
3 67% 99.9% Median
4 33% 33%  
5 0.2% 0.2%  
6 0% 0%  

Polska 2050 (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polska 2050 (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 2% 100%  
3 76% 98% Median
4 21% 22%  
5 0.2% 0.2%  
6 0% 0%  

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 4% 100%  
3 90% 96% Median
4 6% 6%  
5 0.4% 0.4%  
6 0% 0%  

Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 3% 100%  
3 38% 97%  
4 59% 59% Median
5 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ruch Narodowy (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 2% 100%  
2 95% 98% Median
3 3% 3%  
4 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.4% 100% Last Result
1 96% 99.6% Median
2 4% 4%  
3 0% 0%  

.Nowoczesna (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the .Nowoczesna (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 14% 100% Last Result
1 86% 86% Median
2 0.2% 0.2%  
3 0% 0%  

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Inicjatywa Polska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.2% 0.2%  
2 0% 0%  

Centrum dla Polski (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centrum dla Polski (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.1% 0.1%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 3 0% 3 3–4 2–4 2–4
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 2 0% 2 2 2–3 1–3
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 4% 100%  
3 90% 96% Median
4 6% 6%  
5 0.4% 0.4%  
6 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 2% 100%  
2 95% 98% Median
3 3% 3%  
4 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations